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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

looks like Bakhmut is not about to be taken then?

what on earth is going inside the Russian military

or is this simply a bluff?

The city itself is not that important. It's totally destroyed.


What we are all waiting for next is the Ukrainian offensive.

Syrskyi is the modern day Zhuge Liang. But Syrskyi cannot conquer Russia just like Zhuge Liang failed to conquer Wei. Wei had 4 times the population of Shu. Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine. Too much out numbered.

 
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Ukraine may or may not have 3.000 artillery pieces, but they are firing 5-7.000 rounds per day. You dont need 3.000 artillery pieces if you cant produce the ammunition. Same goes for Russia. They have depleted some of its USSR stocks of ammunition and cant sustain the use of artillery they once did. Im not even sure artillery is the actual work horse in Ukraine anymore, seems to me mortars is the frontline weapon of choice.
I dont disagree that Europe needs to rearm, but no single european country has to compete with USSR stocks left in Russia, and produce modern systems in such quantities.

Russias war in Ukraine is not limited. Upholding 500.000 soldiers in this war is not “limited”. Russia is not the USSR. There is limit to how many poor russians Putin can sacrifice in Ukraine. Eventually russian society will collaps.
Ukraine reports they destroyed, damaged or captured 2978 Russian artillery in 1 year 2 months fighting.

FvXWOFjWwAk3Slo


That number does not include MLRS.

Visually confirmed Russian losses to artillery - howitzers - 589. Though this number is only visually confirmed. I am guessing since these hits are at km range... less visual proof of destroyed or damaged artillery.

You need enough artillery in swarm numbers (super-saturate Russia with targets), so that you have artillery left to fire the shells that Europe should be mass producing in cold war era quantities.

Yes, mortar is part of artillery. And highly effective.

I only see articles that say artillery is responsible for ~80% of casualties, though mortar is part of that artillery numbers. And for frontline vs frontline firing, it would be mortar. Though there is no breakdown on the 80%.

Howitzer Artillery is needed to keep your enemy honest. If you only have mortar artillery at the frontlines, longer range enemy artillery can knock out less entrenched frontline positions. With howitzers, you can return fire on enemy howitzers. Drones are also effective, as are other means. Europe can and should make 100000s of mortar for millions of conscripted EU citizens. Though this is affordable. The only thing missing is industrial capacity. Europe has a one shot defense against Russia, if EU loses, Europeans (xFrench) are the new Chechens, 100 year+ occupation and servitude to Russian criminals.

When Russia invades the European Union, you will see that the Ukraine War was a limited war, comparatively.

Russian society is not going to collapse and cause the cronies that run Moscow to lose to democracy. The nation is run by fear. It is a 1984 state. Only an full invasion and capture of Moscow would the Russia Mafia, Russian Chabad and Russian Oligarchs lose the Kremlin. These control the Kremlin, Putin has to obey the script. Russia is a mafia state of criminal looters of Russia. You are aware that Russian populists and nationalist grassroots in Russia get kidnapped and disappear into "prisons". The entire system eliminates opposition and only allowing the criminals to control the Kremlin. I was reading an article explaining how there is a pecking order in Russia. The worst criminals rule Russia, and they can kill/harm those lower than these Kremlin/Mafia criminals. And the criminals lower than that group can get away with murder and out of "court cases" if they only harm those below them. The entire society is a criminal racket. This system Putin is planning to export to Europe after an invasion. And MAGA wanted to import to the USA with Trump.

Europe has the economy to easily win an arms race with Russia and chooses to risk it and gamble Europe doing what is really minimal (IMO) can defeat Russia.

No urgency in rearming means you are sleepwalking into occupation. This is the stuff that makes MAGA and Tucker prosper.
 
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This is portraying the image that Russia is low on ammo and weapons.

Russia is only low on ammo (and to a lesser extent weapons) it earmarked to use on Ukraine.

Russia can draw from the ammo and weapons earmarked for the war against the EU.

Ukraine is not out of woods. And clearly the EU is not out of the woods.
 



This is portraying the image that Russia is low on ammo and weapons.

Russia is only low on ammo and weapons it earmarked to use on Ukraine.

Russia can draw from the ammo and weapons earmarked for the war against the EU.

Ukraine is not out of woods. And clearly the EU is not out of the woods.

Russians were shooting 100 million artillery shells a year during WW1. Current production rate is low but they can restore WW1 level ammunition production by next year.


 
Ukraine reports they destroyed, damaged or captured 2978 Russian artillery in 1 year 2 months fighting.

FvXWOFjWwAk3Slo


That number does not include MLRS.

Visually confirmed Russian losses to artillery - howitzers - 589. Though this number is only visually confirmed. I am guessing since these hits are at km range... less visual proof of destroyed or damaged artillery.

You need enough artillery in swarm numbers (super-saturate Russia with targets), so that you have artillery left to fire the shells that Europe should be mass producing in cold war era quantities.

Yes, mortar is part of artillery. And highly effective.

I only see articles that say artillery is responsible for ~80% of casualties, though mortar is part of that artillery numbers. And for frontline vs frontline firing, it would be mortar. Though there is no breakdown on the 80%.

Howitzer Artillery is needed to keep your enemy honest. If you only have mortar artillery at the frontlines, longer range enemy artillery can knock out less entrenched frontline positions. With howitzers, you can return fire on enemy howitzers. Drones are also effective, as are other means. Europe can and should make 100000s of mortar for millions of conscripted EU citizens. Though this is affordable. The only thing missing is industrial capacity. Europe has a one shot defense against Russia, if EU loses, Europeans (xFrench) are the new Chechens, 100 year+ occupation and servitude to Russian criminals.

When Russia invades the European Union, you will see that the Ukraine War was a limited war, comparatively.

Russian society is not going to collapse and cause the cronies that run Moscow to lose to democracy. The nation is run by fear. It is a 1984 state. Only an full invasion and capture of Moscow would the Russia Mafia, Russian Chabad and Russian Oligarchs lose the Kremlin. These control the Kremlin, Putin has to obey the script. Russia is a mafia state of criminal looters of Russia. You are aware that Russian populists and nationalist grassroots in Russia get kidnapped and disappear into "prisons". The entire system eliminates opposition and only allowing the criminals to control the Kremlin. I was reading an article explaining how there is a pecking order in Russia. The worst criminals rule Russia, and they can kill/harm those lower than these Kremlin/Mafia criminals. And the criminals lower than that group can get away with murder and out of "court cases" if they only harm those below them. The entire society is a criminal racket. This system Putin is planning to export to Europe after an invasion. And MAGA wanted to import to the USA with Trump.

Europe has the economy to easily win an arms race with Russia and chooses to risk it and gamble Europe doing what is really minimal (IMO) can defeat Russia.

No urgency in rearming means you are sleepwalking into occupation. This is the stuff that makes MAGA and Tucker prosper.
I dont disagree that the state of Russia is controlled by a criminal organisation and ruled by fear at this point. You need to consider that this organisation needs to waste alot of ressources to keep the population in check.
The armed forces in Ukraine are simply peasants, Putins plebs. The moment they decide not to go, or Russia run out of those peasants, its all over. No russian middle or upper class citizen is going to lay down their lives for Putins palaces, no matter how hard russian propaganda is targetting the population. The younger and informed majority of the middle class doesnt buy the narrative.
Putins contract with the russian population was that they left him alone if he did the same. If this contract gets breached the population will stop pretending being indifferent about politics - which is why Putin hasnt declared war and probably never will.
 


This is portraying the image that Russia is low on ammo and weapons.

Russia is only low on ammo (and to a lesser extent weapons) it earmarked to use on Ukraine.

Russia can draw from the ammo and weapons earmarked for the war against the EU.

Ukraine is not out of woods. And clearly the EU is not out of the woods.

US intel once said that Pakistan wouldn't exist and Taliban would be defeated in a matter of months...
 

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