Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Hack-Hook]

Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC+

Oil prices have fallen back after a brief spike triggered by the surprise production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC+ on April 2.

www.reuters.com

A funny read.

Saudi and OPEC + (that included Russia) had announced another oil production cut back a month ago, and the market actually absorbed that tbh quite serious 1 million barrel a day cut, Russia expected the oil price to go above $100 but instead it has fallen to <$80 and mostly flutrated between $78-$81the entire April

Crude Oil Price Today | BRENT OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider

Oil Price: Get all information on the Price of Oil including News, Charts and Realtime Quotes.

markets.businessinsider.com

That show two things.

1.) Saudi and OPEC no longer have strong sway on oil price
2.) Big buyer is saturated, they can no longer affect oil market, which almost certainly mean China and India is either stop buying or close to stop, otherwise the oil price would have jacked up......

show there was over production before this . good they realise it and moved to compensate that otherwise again in several month the price would have fallen below 30 like several year ago

And these animals have the nerve to call others Nazis.

foreign mercenaries never ever protected in human history by any law or treaty

 

[Hack-Hook]

It was on fire and exploded in the video......

You don't catch fire and explode if you are done in by E-Dub

Videos capture Russian MiG-31 jet bursting into flames before it crashed into a lake

The latest incident, which the pilots survived, comes just days after another jet accidentally bombed a Russian city.

www.yahoo.com

Unless you are talking about laser weapon like deathstar or ion cannon......If that is the case, then there are much more for the Russian to worry about....

I tend to bet on exemplary Russian maintenance ethic than EW or Laser or any other SciFi weaponry.

Its impossible to Slavic women to go other corner of the world do they have money to go China, its easier to them to go neighboring countries rather than China your mental disease has no cure I'm sorry say dude

right now russian and east european women go to east asia for work. there is not hard to go there why they go to neighbouring east european countries when the situation of jobs and oppurtunity of making money there is as bad as their own country and they won't get better treatment or respect in those countries than what they receive in east Asia and china ?

 

[Hack-Hook]

China is not far from Ukraine. Only 2,800 km between the borders of Ukraine and China. It's easy to travel from Ukraine to China by train.

i bet those 2800km by train if you consider how long it take and the expense of food and other necessity will be equivalent to what you have to pay to simply fly to china

 

[jhungary]

show there was over production before this . good they realise it and moved to compensate that otherwise again in several month the price would have fallen below 30 like several year ago

Well, would have agreed with you if they didn't also cut 2 mil barrel a day back in October 2022. I mean, with this, it's 3 million barrel a day cut, it's hardly "Overproducing", it's more like either the demand is still low, or the rest of the field have keep up with the supplies.

In fact, some OPEC member openly said they don't actually produce enough and wanted to have this reversed, because they are losing money hand over fist on it already, Not all of them produce as many oil as Saudi, UAE and Qatar for example are on sub 5 mil before, they don't have much to drop, I mean even the Kingdom drop from 11 mil barrel a day to about 8-9 mil barrel a day, it's isn't going to be enough even they can do $30 a barrel.

On the other hand, this OPEC cut may also bring in something drastic from the US, namely the NOPEC act, they are inching to pass it now with the 2nd round of production cut, they weren't pass before because the American oil company think the Saudi are going to do something drastic with it, but with this.......I mean, if they push the US Senate over the head, they may actually do it, and then you will be looking at $30 a barrel.....

 

[Hack-Hook]

Its more than 6000 km dude not 2800 km go bark somewhere else

cheap direct flight from an east European capitals to Beijing can be as low as less than 500$ . that beat any ground route so its nonsense talking about how expensive it can be and how hard it is

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www.trip.com

 

[jhungary]

A rule of thumb is that you need a 3 to 1 local advantage to carry the offensive. It is always difficult to advance in the face of the enemy, because the Ukrainian defenders have what’s called “homefield advantage. Where russisns are constantly being forced to pour in more men and armour to break down the defenders by takening resources from other Donbas locations. Against this stiff Ukrainian strategy to hold Bakhmut so far 1O months it has worked costing Russians quite dearly

The reason why urban offensive always favor the defender and not the attacker is because you have man made defence line the defender can stay in and repulse the attack. On the other hand, the attacker has to come out of any defensive posture in order for you to advance. You cannot advance if you stay under cover. And defensive position provide some protection against attacker indirect fire.

The initial rate would not be 3 to 1, it would be more like 7 to 1 or 5 to 1 depends on the defensive structure and how much support the attacker have, and when you degraded enough on the defender, then that ratio would start going down and eventually level at 3 to 1, which is what you expect to defend an open terrain.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Well, would have agreed with you if they didn't also cut 2 mil barrel a day back in October 2022. I mean, with this, it's 3 million barrel a day cut, it's hardly "Overproducing", it's more like either the demand is still low, or the rest of the field have keep up with the supplies.

In fact, some OPEC member openly said they don't actually produce enough and wanted to have this reversed, because they are losing money hand over fist on it already, Not all of them produce as many oil as Saudi, UAE and Qatar for example are on sub 5 mil before, they don't have much to drop, I mean even the Kingdom drop from 11 mil barrel a day to about 8-9 mil barrel a day, it's isn't going to be enough even they can do $30 a barrel.

On the other hand, this OPEC cut may also bring in something drastic from the US, namely the NOPEC act, they are inching to pass it now with the 2nd round of production cut, they weren't pass before because the American oil company think the Saudi are going to do something drastic with it, but with this.......I mean, if they push the US Senate over the head, they may actually do it, and then you will be looking at $30 a barrel.....

the act is meaning less if USA produce its own oil and can not enforce it outside their country also its against free trade policy
also OPEC only produce 45% of world oil so you can't blame them on anti competitive policy . if they enact that then some body come and sue USA for capping its oil field and not exporting its oil . some may even go above it and sue INTEL , nVIDIA and AMD for their monopoly on the semiconductor field and artificially raise the price of the chips. and it's a cascade that may applied to many other things
if the price is low it means there is enough oil in market no way around it , its simply supply and demand rule.

 

[jhungary]

the act is meaning less if USA produce its own oil and can not enforce it outside their country also its against free trade policy
also OPEC only produce 45% of world oil so you can't blame them on anti competitive policy . if they enact that then some body come and sue USA for capping its oil field and not exporting its oil . some may even go above it and sue INTEL , nVIDIA and AMD for their monopoly on the semiconductor field and artificially raise the price of the chips. and it's a cascade that may applied to many other things
if the price is low it means there is enough oil in market no way around it , its simply supply and demand rule.

lol........

First of all, what is the basis of the lawsuit? The only thing come close is anti-trust. But then as you said, this is not a majority issue with each of the faction going off their production and US cannot enforce their energy policy outside US. On the other hand, US is not the one that cutting the production. So what can OPEC sue the US for, it's not the US that's doing the racketeering?? If there are any lawsuit, it would have been the other way around..

Dumping? That's not illegal, you can of course do anti-dumping tariff on it.

On the other hand, you already can sue Intel and co with anti-trust, EU just did last June, NOPEC don't affect that.

And you can also explain the oil price being stable as the demand is met, not just enough oil is on the market. If there are already overproduced, the price would already been low, I don't consider $80 a barrel is low....

 

[Hack-Hook]

The initial rate would not be 3 to 1, it would be more like 7 to 1 or 5 to 1 depends on the defensive structure and how much support the attacker have, and when you degraded enough on the defender, then that ratio would start going down and eventually level at 3 to 1, which is what you expect to defend an open terrain.

it's not that simple , your firepower and air support and morals and many such other things may also apply to that let look at what is considered the turning point of Iraq-Iran war

Operation Fath ol-Mobin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Operation Fath-Al-Mobin 160,000 Iraqi Soldiers against 185,000 Iranian one
there are several others which both forces had roughly the same strength such as

Operation Tariq al-Quds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

or this one which offensive force actually had less artillery armored and man power than defensing ones

Operation Samen-ol-A'emeh - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

those rules of thumb are guidelines and good to have but war is more dynamic than that , you can achieve many feats with good commanding officer and high morals

 

[TopGun786]

A rule of thumb is that you need a 3 to 1 local advantage to carry the offensive. It is always difficult to advance in the face of the enemy, because the Ukrainian defenders have what’s called “homefield advantage. Where russisns are constantly being forced to pour in more men and armour to break down the defenders by takening resources from other Donbas locations. Against this stiff Ukrainian strategy to hold Bakhmut so far 1O months it has worked costing Russians quite dearly

The same can be said that Russia is holding Ukraine, the USA, and the entire NATO single-handedly for the past 10 months. As I said its just a matter of perspective.

 

[Hack-Hook]

First of all, what is the basis of the lawsuit? The only thing come close is anti-trust. But then as you said, this is not a majority issue with each of the faction going off their production and US cannot enforce their energy policy outside US. On the other hand, US is not the one that cutting the production. So what can OPEC sue the US for, it's not the US that's doing the racketeering?? If there are any lawsuit, it would have been the other way around..

usa was exporter of energy 30-40 years ago they cut the production have you forget that part so yes its usa that doing the racketeering that artificially cap its production also hoarding the oil in the marcket in its reserves , those are the main things that kept the price high , its time that they are answer for their policy

Dumping? That's not illegal, you can of course do anti-dumping tariff on it.

cutting production to maintain the balance between supply and demand is not illegal also its not like a certain country dont do that by dumping grains in the ocean .

And you can also explain the oil price being stable as the demand is met, not just enough oil is on the market. If there are already overproduced, the price would already been low, I don't consider $80 a barrel is low....

your point of view as a consumer , a producer may think otherwise .
you think the price is high remove your sanctions that limit 3 of 4 top oil producer ability to export oil and develop their fields then if the price again remains high make complaints

 

[jhungary]

it's not that simple , your firepower and air support and morals and many such other things may also apply to that let look at what is considered the turning point of Iraq-Iran war

Operation Fath ol-Mobin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Operation Fath-Al-Mobin 160,000 Iraqi Soldiers against 185,000 Iranian one
there are several others which both forces had roughly the same strength such as

Operation Tariq al-Quds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

or this one which offensive force actually had less artillery armored and man power than defensing ones

Operation Samen-ol-A'emeh - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

those rules of thumb are guidelines and good to have but war is more dynamic than that , you can achieve many feats with good commanding officer and high morals

Those are outliner, I can name you about 17 outliners on either side just on top of my head. Khe Shan, Battle of Sarmizegetusa, or even the British last stand at the Rouke's Drift

Sure, if you ask me, whether or not morale play a factor in any siege? Yes but would it change the expected outcome generally? No.

On the other hand, this particular battle already lasted for 9 months, the chances of this is being one of the outliner wasn't that great.

 

[jhungary]

usa was exporter of energy 30-40 years ago they cut the production have you forget that part so yes its usa that doing the racketeering that artificially cap its production also hoarding the oil in the marcket in its reserves , those are the main things that kept the price high , its time that they are answer for their policy

Dude, cut production is not the same as racketeering, cut production for the express purpose of jacking up the price is racketeering.......

US cut oil production, ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE OPEC, is in response with the 1980 oil glut, when the surplus is pushing oil price down as low as $35

1980s oil glut - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This is not the same case here, you are talking about OPEC+ trying to cut production to jack price up to $100+ from the current $80.

I don't know what or why you think the two issue are the same.

cutting production to maintain the balance between supply and demand is not illegal also its not like a certain country dont do that by dumping grains in the ocean .

Read my above reply.

Stranges that you say this now, and then you say the stuff before......

your point of view as a consumer , a producer may think otherwise .
you think the price is high remove your sanctions that limit 3 of 4 top oil producer ability to export oil and develop their fields then if the price again remains high make complaints

Honestly, what's this have to do with anything? I am talking about the market dynamic, it's the same prespective. I mean, if it's like you said, the world is already washed with oil, then the oil price is going to be down, and it wasn't even at pre-war level, let alone COVID level. Being sanctioned or whatever does not affect that equation because sanction happened long before the 5 years of oil price we are talking about.

Do I think sanction on Iran and Venezuela hurt the consumer oil price? Yes, but it's not that high, because you still have to content with the demand, and you can't just say "Oh, I now have extra supplies, so I need the demand to be raise" It's not exactly how this game play.......

 

[ZeGerman]

The same can be said that Russia is holding Ukraine, the USA, and the entire NATO single-handedly for the past 10 months. As I said its just a matter of perspective.

A stupid perspective.


For instance:
Russia: lost over 2000 tanks. Starts Using T50-60s.
USA: in the process of sending 31 of its 5000 abrams tanks somewhere this year….

NATO: 80 of 18.000 combat aircraft sent

NATO: 0 soldiers of 3 million.

Does this fit with the image of brave Russia singlehandedly fighting off the “Nato hordes”??

 

[TopGun786]

A stupid perspective.


For instance:
Russia: lost over 2000 tanks. Starts Using T50-60s.
USA: in the process of sending 31 of its 5000 abrams tanks somewhere this year….

NATO: 80 of 18.0000 combat aircraft sent

NATO: 0 soldiers of 3 million.

Does this fit with the image of brave Russia singlehandedly fighting off the “Nato hordes”??

Only blind people can say it as a stupid perspective.
Then in a broad sense, we can also say none of the above countries dared to involve directly in this war except for pouring billions and billions of dollars of money and arms.
And who knows what else Russia is hiding and not using in this war? Why take Russia so lightly and why think Russia is only fighting Ukraine?
Russia has much bigger threats than Ukraine and you think Russia has lost all its resources in this war and has nothing left for other major foes?
Never underestimate your enemy.