Read in news that Germany wants to buy back the Leos from the Swiss. With what you read, I doubt the Swiss will ever be threaten at all. Heck not even Germany would be threaten by the Russians now. Same for Poland and other countries nearby if this keeps up.
Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2
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The spread between Brent crude and Russian Urals was $29.24 yesterday compared with $18.55 at the start of November. Revenues in January fell 6 per cent year on year, the finance ministry said. So oil revenues are continuing to get impacted.
But despite that, the devaluation of 20% of a nation at war means Russians holding up pretty well. Sanctions will not bring Russia to capitulation. But it makes sense that there be economic sanctions when a kinetic war is taking place
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Financial Times
Financial Times USA1 Mar 2023
Finance
ANASTASIA STOGNEI — RIGA
With capital controls in place and foreign trading in the currency largely moribund, analysts said that the value of the currency no longer reflected a forward-looking assessment of the state of the economy but more of a short-term snapshot.
“Trade flows have become the main factor behind the rouble moves,” said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Global Markets.
The currency is trading at about Rbs75 to the dollar, from the peak of Rbs50 it reached at the end of July and around the level it was at before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
After the war started, it collapsed to about Rbs140 to the dollar, according to Bloomberg data, following the imposition of sanctions, and then recovered after interest rates were hiked to 20 per cent and capital controls imposed.
The rouble’s decline this year is being driven by lower energy revenues — a result of western sanctions on Russian oil exports, including a $60-a-barrel price cap from the EU in December.
Moscow is now selling much of its oil to China and India, who can demand a discount on the price, particularly since February 5 when G7 sanctions were extended from Russian crude to oil products. The spread between Brent crude and Russian Urals was $29.24 yesterday compared with $18.55 at the start of November. Revenues in January fell 6 per cent year on year, the finance ministry said.
The rouble’s fall is being tempered by the central bank selling renminbi holdings from its National Wealth Fund, in accordance with its “budget rule” — when energy revenues are lower than expected, the bank sells assets from the fund to cover the difference.
In January, according to the finance ministry, Russia sold Rbs54.5bn of renminbi and plans to triple this amount in February. If it did, this would account for less than 6 per cent of the fund’s total renminbi holdings, suggesting that the strategy can be maintained for some time.
“These sales are not aimed to strengthen the rouble as they cannot outweigh the trade flows, although may have a minor supporting effect,” said Vladimir Osakovsky, the chief Russia economist at the Bank of America.
A weaker rouble gives Russia higher export revenues as it receives energy income mostly in dollars and euros while government spending is largely in the local currency.
“When the exchange rate goes one rouble down, the budget receives an extra Rbs120bn,” Lavrova said.
The recent decline is not necessarily bad news for Moscow — last year the government worried that the currency had strengthened too much.
Economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov said after it hit Rbs50 to the dollar that “the profitability of many industrial enterprises became negative at the current exchange rate”.
Too weak a currency, however, poses risks for inflation — through more expensive imports — and financial stability as it triggers demands for liquidity, analysts at the Kyiv School of Economics Institute analysts said in a report this month.
Government statistics demonstrate the pressure on the rouble. In January, the current account surplus, the difference in net value between exports and imports, fell to $8bn.
This was a year-on-year drop of almost 60 per cent.
Falling oil and gas revenues also put pressure on government finances. But instead of tightening its belt, the state increased spending in January by 59 per cent year-on-year.
By the end of February, Russia had spent 17 per cent of the 2023 budget but earned only received 5.3 per cent of its expected annual revenue, according to finance ministry data.
“The scale of spending increase in January is quite unusual as the government usually trims spending at the start of the year,” Osakovsky said.
He argued that the spending surge could be another reason behind the currency’s decline as “part of the rouble inflows could have been used to buy dollars to pay for imports”.
It is unclear how low the rouble will fall. A recent central bank survey of Russian analysts forecast that the currency would trade in the Rbs67-Rbs77 range this year, a level that first deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov last year had described as “the most comfortable for Russian industry”.
Analysts believe the currency’s future direction will be determined by the same factors that are driving it now — a shifting pattern of imports and exports, particularly in the energy sector.
Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, said: “The rouble exists in a relatively sterile environment and reflects one fundamental aspect of the Russian economy — the trade balance.”
But despite that, the devaluation of 20% of a nation at war means Russians holding up pretty well. Sanctions will not bring Russia to capitulation. But it makes sense that there be economic sanctions when a kinetic war is taking place
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Financial TimesFinancial Times USA1 Mar 2023
Finance
Rouble slides to 10-month low as falling energy prices bite
Steady weakening in Russian forex since start of December results in a 20% depreciation
ANASTASIA STOGNEI — RIGA
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With capital controls in place and foreign trading in the currency largely moribund, analysts said that the value of the currency no longer reflected a forward-looking assessment of the state of the economy but more of a short-term snapshot.
“Trade flows have become the main factor behind the rouble moves,” said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Global Markets.
The currency is trading at about Rbs75 to the dollar, from the peak of Rbs50 it reached at the end of July and around the level it was at before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
After the war started, it collapsed to about Rbs140 to the dollar, according to Bloomberg data, following the imposition of sanctions, and then recovered after interest rates were hiked to 20 per cent and capital controls imposed.
The rouble’s decline this year is being driven by lower energy revenues — a result of western sanctions on Russian oil exports, including a $60-a-barrel price cap from the EU in December.
Moscow is now selling much of its oil to China and India, who can demand a discount on the price, particularly since February 5 when G7 sanctions were extended from Russian crude to oil products. The spread between Brent crude and Russian Urals was $29.24 yesterday compared with $18.55 at the start of November. Revenues in January fell 6 per cent year on year, the finance ministry said.
The rouble’s fall is being tempered by the central bank selling renminbi holdings from its National Wealth Fund, in accordance with its “budget rule” — when energy revenues are lower than expected, the bank sells assets from the fund to cover the difference.
In January, according to the finance ministry, Russia sold Rbs54.5bn of renminbi and plans to triple this amount in February. If it did, this would account for less than 6 per cent of the fund’s total renminbi holdings, suggesting that the strategy can be maintained for some time.
“These sales are not aimed to strengthen the rouble as they cannot outweigh the trade flows, although may have a minor supporting effect,” said Vladimir Osakovsky, the chief Russia economist at the Bank of America.
A weaker rouble gives Russia higher export revenues as it receives energy income mostly in dollars and euros while government spending is largely in the local currency.
“When the exchange rate goes one rouble down, the budget receives an extra Rbs120bn,” Lavrova said.
The recent decline is not necessarily bad news for Moscow — last year the government worried that the currency had strengthened too much.
Economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov said after it hit Rbs50 to the dollar that “the profitability of many industrial enterprises became negative at the current exchange rate”.
Too weak a currency, however, poses risks for inflation — through more expensive imports — and financial stability as it triggers demands for liquidity, analysts at the Kyiv School of Economics Institute analysts said in a report this month.
Government statistics demonstrate the pressure on the rouble. In January, the current account surplus, the difference in net value between exports and imports, fell to $8bn.
This was a year-on-year drop of almost 60 per cent.
Falling oil and gas revenues also put pressure on government finances. But instead of tightening its belt, the state increased spending in January by 59 per cent year-on-year.
By the end of February, Russia had spent 17 per cent of the 2023 budget but earned only received 5.3 per cent of its expected annual revenue, according to finance ministry data.
“The scale of spending increase in January is quite unusual as the government usually trims spending at the start of the year,” Osakovsky said.
He argued that the spending surge could be another reason behind the currency’s decline as “part of the rouble inflows could have been used to buy dollars to pay for imports”.
It is unclear how low the rouble will fall. A recent central bank survey of Russian analysts forecast that the currency would trade in the Rbs67-Rbs77 range this year, a level that first deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov last year had described as “the most comfortable for Russian industry”.
Analysts believe the currency’s future direction will be determined by the same factors that are driving it now — a shifting pattern of imports and exports, particularly in the energy sector.
Sofya Donets, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital, said: “The rouble exists in a relatively sterile environment and reflects one fundamental aspect of the Russian economy — the trade balance.”
To be frank & down to earth in honesty, when there is NATO supplying all kinds of anti-tank Himars etc to Ukraine. Its a no brainer Ukraine lasted for 6 months or so. Remember back in the day Afghanistan Russia war, US again supplied RPGs & hand held should fired rockets which brought the demise of Russian forces back then. So now the game has changed, even these weapons wont work with Adrenalin assult of Russia just like back in WWII how they single handedly defeated Germans while Americans requireed all European alliances to assist US forces in defeating Germans. Americans are only good at coalition joint attacks lets see them fight China + Russia single handedly not with India or others nation combined, they cant, they wont.
The Russians didn't single handedly defeated the Germans. Even the Russians admitted the U.S. Lend Lease helped provide the materials and supplies to make it possible.
'We Would Have Lost': Did U.S. Lend-Lease Aid Tip The Balance In Soviet Fight Against Nazi Germany?
Ever since the Cold War, many Soviet and Russian politicians and academics have downplayed the role that U.S.-provided weapons and supplies played in the Red Army's ultimately victorious campaign against Hitler's Germany. But there is substantial evidence that the huge influx of materiel made an...
www.rferl.org
Nikolai Ryzhkov, the last head of the government of the Soviet Union, wrote in 2015 that "it can be confidently stated that [Lend-Lease assistance] did not play a decisive role in the Great Victory."
Such assessments, however, are contradicted by the opinions of Soviet war participants. Most famously, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin raised a toast to the Lend-Lease program at the November 1943 Tehran conference with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt.
"I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war."
Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion.
"If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," he wrote in his memoirs. "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
Alright lets assume you're right in Allies in WWII helping each other to defeat Germans. Than why does all the history books of western libraries BAN Russian victories articles to any facts glorifying Russian super tactics??The Russians didn't single handedly defeated the Germans. Even the Russians admitted the U.S. Lend Lease helped provide the materials and supplies to make it possible.
'We Would Have Lost': Did U.S. Lend-Lease Aid Tip The Balance In Soviet Fight Against Nazi Germany?
Ever since the Cold War, many Soviet and Russian politicians and academics have downplayed the role that U.S.-provided weapons and supplies played in the Red Army's ultimately victorious campaign against Hitler's Germany. But there is substantial evidence that the huge influx of materiel made an...
Nikolai Ryzhkov, the last head of the government of the Soviet Union,wrote in 2015 that "it can be confidently stated that [Lend-Lease assistance] did not play a decisive role in the Great Victory."
Such assessments, however, are contradicted by the opinions of Soviet war participants. Most famously, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin raised a toast to the Lend-Lease program at the November 1943 Tehran conference with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt.
"I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war."
Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion.
"If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war," he wrote in his memoirs. "One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
I have studied WWII for many years, later found out the Russian victories are totally banned in Western chronicles to date. This goes to show the mighty tactics of Russia are still better than any NATO combined effort to date.
Let me put it this way, if there was no Russia with COALITION within WWII than I bet today Germany would be a nuke super power ruling whole Europe.
Ukraine suffers considerable losses as well but Its a fact that russia’s combat ready material and troops has been taking a huge hit which will take many years to replenish.
Russia is demilitarizing itself against its core soviet ally….
On paper. And hardly trained mobiks without proper material do not constitute to much.
Its how smaller countries ensure their independance with an agressive colonial empire (russia) in the neighbourhood.
do you know how much support russia got in ww2?
So far nato spent small change in ukraine.
Usa will send 31 tanks of its 6000 stock
Russia lost 2000 tanks of its 8000 stock.
You know how to count?
Since 1980 we only saw countries running away from russia.
That will not stop, especially its current behaviour which drove away finland, sweden, ukraine, kazachstan, armenia….
Russia is incapable of taking kiev. It cannot handle more next to that.
Its really russia. Its an opportunistic greedy land grabber.
Wrong bet.
You do realise sloviansk and kramatorsk defenses are heavier fortified and larger?
Ofcourse you dont…your quite clueless
Like bakhmut? A year now?
Dont try to make little villages and a wooden hut here and there as “all important sites”.
Look at the map now and from 4 months ago. Territory gained by russia has been minute.
Viet
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US and Germany say Russia must pay war reparations.
Lets see. Putin‘s war of aggression has caused estimated 1 trillion USD damage to Ukraine, deportations of thousands of Ukraine kids to Russia, rapes, killings, making millions homeless.
In addition, Russia has inflicted 1.5 trillion USD damage to global economy in 2022, this year 2023 will be another 1 trillion USD.
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz hat mit US-Präsident Joe Biden im Weißen Haus in Washington über den Ukraine-Krieg gesprochen. © Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
www.zeit.de
Lets see. Putin‘s war of aggression has caused estimated 1 trillion USD damage to Ukraine, deportations of thousands of Ukraine kids to Russia, rapes, killings, making millions homeless.
In addition, Russia has inflicted 1.5 trillion USD damage to global economy in 2022, this year 2023 will be another 1 trillion USD.
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz hat mit US-Präsident Joe Biden im Weißen Haus in Washington über den Ukraine-Krieg gesprochen. © Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Treffen in Washington: Joe Biden und Olaf Scholz sagen Ukraine weitere Hilfe zu
Der US-Präsident und der Bundeskanzler beteuern bei einem Gespräch im Weißen Haus ihre Geschlossenheit. Russland müsse die Kosten für den Krieg übernehmen.
www.zeit.de
Dalit
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US and Germany say Russia must pay war reparations.
Lets see. Putin‘s war of aggression has caused estimated 1 trillion USD damage to Ukraine, deportations of thousands of Ukraine kids to Russia, rapes, killings, making millions homeless.
In addition, Russia has inflicted 1.5 trillion USD damage to global economy in 2022, this year 2023 will be another 1 trillion USD.
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz hat mit US-Präsident Joe Biden im Weißen Haus in Washington über den Ukraine-Krieg gesprochen. © Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Treffen in Washington: Joe Biden und Olaf Scholz sagen Ukraine weitere Hilfe zu
Der US-Präsident und der Bundeskanzler beteuern bei einem Gespräch im Weißen Haus ihre Geschlossenheit. Russland müsse die Kosten für den Krieg übernehmen.
What if Russia doesn't pay?
Viet
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Very easy. Much like you owe money by the banks. They come taking your car, house, everything. In the case of Russia certainly it’s difficult to visit Putin in his palaces. Then Russia’s overseas assets will be seized. Money, villas, yachts, company stocks, everything. Then there is money in some places Putin hides those money in the west in the form of straw men. That’s not a secret.
Ich
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US and Germany say Russia must pay war reparations.
Lets see. Putin‘s war of aggression has caused estimated 1 trillion USD damage to Ukraine, deportations of thousands of Ukraine kids to Russia, rapes, killings, making millions homeless.
In addition, Russia has inflicted 1.5 trillion USD damage to global economy in 2022, this year 2023 will be another 1 trillion USD.
Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz hat mit US-Präsident Joe Biden im Weißen Haus in Washington über den Ukraine-Krieg gesprochen. © Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Treffen in Washington: Joe Biden und Olaf Scholz sagen Ukraine weitere Hilfe zu
Der US-Präsident und der Bundeskanzler beteuern bei einem Gespräch im Weißen Haus ihre Geschlossenheit. Russland müsse die Kosten für den Krieg übernehmen.
Well, in real the slave Scholz was ordered to USA for a meeting with Biden. The meeting lasts 4 hours, of which 3 hours were dedicated to "i sniff you, Olaf!"
Viet
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