Russia snubs India, postpones defence minister's visit to New Delhi

[arp2041]

With the changing world equation, the dynamics of India-Russia and Russia-Pakistan are showing perceptible change. The Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov postponed his scheduled visit to New Delhi ostensibly because he was called by the Russian President Vladimir Putin for an urgent function. However, the most likely reason is seen as the visit of Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who will be in Moscow on October 5. Because of this the visit of the Russian defence minister to India has been rescheduled to October 10.

As India has decided to not put all its apples in one basket and has started exploring more foreign vendors besides Russia, Moscow is also exploring other market options.

While in Moscow there are many things high on the agenda of General Kayani. He will be seeking the Kremlin’s approval for three crucial projects: creation of an engine overhaul facility in Kamra for the 84.4kN-thrust Klimov RD-93, whuch powers the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) JF-17 ‘Thunder’ Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA), another overhaul workshop for the 12 RD & PE Zvezda JSC-built UPAZ-1 aerial refuelling pods in service with the Pakistan Air Force's four IL-78MKP Multi-role transport aircraft, continued product-support for the four IL-78MKPs; and most importantly, the export approval for 132kN-thrust AL-31FN turbofans required for powering the initial 40 FC-20 (36-single-seat and four tandem-seat) Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft that the PAF wants to procure from China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp (which is also producing the JF-17).

Here is the statement issued by the Indian Defence Ministry-

"The meeting of the India-Russia Inter-governmental Commission on Military Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) which was to be held tomorrow has been deferred due to the inability of the Russian Co-Chair of the Commission and the Defence Minister Mr. Serdyukov to travel to India as scheduled. It has been conveyed by the Russian side that the Russian Defence Minister was required to stay in Russia for his urgent participation in a programme of the Russian President.

The IRIGC-MTC meeting will now be held on 10th October, which is an annual meeting at the level of Defence Ministers of the two countries."


defence eXpress: Russia snubs India, postpones defence minister's visit to New Delhi

 

[Abingdonboy]

I call BS. If Pakistan could offer more than India fine I'd find this news belivable but given Pakistan can't offer 1/50th of what India can (even with India spreading it's eggs in multiple baskets) it makes no sense for the Russians to make any overtures to Pakistan at India's expense nor start to favour Pakistan over India. I am not going to go down the "India-Russian brotherhood" nonsense route, but it is about cold hard $$$ at the end of the day and even if the proportion of Indian defence spending spent on Russian goods decreases this amount is always going be far higher than anyhting Pakistan can offer.



I accept the offical story-last minute issue to attend to, these things happen more than you'd expect.

 

[janon]

Another likely explanation is that he was too embarassed to show his face, right in the middle of the Gorshkov delay saga.

 

[Sergi]

I call BS. If Pakistan could offer more than India fine I'd find this news belivable but given Pakistan can't offer 1/50th of what India can (even with India spreading it's eggs in multiple baskets) it makes no sense for the Russians to make any overtures to Pakistan at India's expense nor start to favour Pakistan over India. I am not going to go down the "India-Russian brotherhood" nonsense route, but it is about cold hard $$$ at the end of the day and even if the proportion of Indian defence spending spent on Russian goods decreases this amount is always going be far higher than anyhting Pakistan can offer.



I accept the offical story-last minute issue to attend to, these things happen more than you'd expect.

I think all visits are well schedule. So I really don't buy the official statement. But I don't even buy the article story. You are right on that. Pak can't make 1/10 of market that India do for Russia.

I think it's way of showing displeasure. And if I am not wrong it is because of the Indian statement on Vikidi - that if delivery goes beyond 67 months it will cause penalty. And may be the increasing influence of USA over Indian arms market

 

[IndoUS]

Getting their act together to explain the delay in ACC. Wonder if the delay would affect the outcome of the heavy lift chopper deal.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

Russia snubbed both India and Pak ? What do they have in mind ? I think South Asia in general seems to been relegated to the back-burner in Russia's global scheme of things .

 

[Ticker]

I call BS. If Pakistan could offer more than India fine I'd find this news belivable but given Pakistan can't offer 1/50th of what India can (even with India spreading it's eggs in multiple baskets) it makes no sense for the Russians to make any overtures to Pakistan at India's expense nor start to favour Pakistan over India. I am not going to go down the "India-Russian brotherhood" nonsense route, but it is about cold hard $$$ at the end of the day and even if the proportion of Indian defence spending spent on Russian goods decreases this amount is always going be far higher than anyhting Pakistan can offer.



I accept the offical story-last minute issue to attend to, these things happen more than you'd expect.

And when I was telling you guys that India is losing its geopolitical clout, you were not listening to me.

It is not money only which matters at the world fora, it is more than that.

Are you in a position to throw everything Russian in your military inventory - I don't think so. You are still dependent upon Russia for most of your military hardware.

If you don't like Russian stuff, buy western. You are buying western hardware, but are also afraid that if they stop supplying for any reason, you will have to go to Russia.

Your alternatives are extremely limited.

You can not afford to put-off Russians at this stage. Learn to live with your anger or better, take a couple of BP lowering pills.

 

[arp2041]

I call BS. If Pakistan could offer more than India fine I'd find this news belivable but given Pakistan can't offer 1/50th of what India can (even with India spreading it's eggs in multiple baskets) it makes no sense for the Russians to make any overtures to Pakistan at India's expense nor start to favour Pakistan over India. I am not going to go down the "India-Russian brotherhood" nonsense route, but it is about cold hard $$$ at the end of the day and even if the proportion of Indian defence spending spent on Russian goods decreases this amount is always going be far higher than anyhting Pakistan can offer.



I accept the offical story-last minute issue to attend to, these things happen more than you'd expect.

Agreed, but can this be a co-incidence that Russian defence minister postponing a visit to India (on 5th oct), the exact date that the COAS of Pakistan is scheduled to visit Russia?? Russian overtures to Pakistan are not just about defence deals but about Geo-strategic situation surrounding Pakistan, especially after NATO pulls out of Afghanistan in 2014, so new relation b/w Russia & Pakistan can be seen in that regard.

But u r right, relation b/w Russia & Pak cannot be at the expense of relation b/w India & Russia.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Getting their act together to explain the delay in ACC. Wonder if the delay would affect the outcome of the heavy lift chopper deal.

Nah the Indian defenc eprocurment policies are so stringent that the winners are picked on cost and merit everything else is hogwash and background noise. Even still I belive the heavy lift competion is Boeing's to lose.

I think all visits are well schedule. So I really don't buy the official statement. But I don't even buy the article story. You are right on that. Pak can't make 1/10 of market that India do for Russia.

I think it's way of showing displeasure. And if I am not wrong it is because of the Indian statement on Vikidi - that if delivery goes beyond 67 months it will cause penalty. And may be the increasing influence of USA over Indian arms market

tbf things can crop up at the last minute and it seems he has pushed back his trip by a few days, if he had cancelled the entire trip then that would be something to read into. And it would be stupid for the Russians to be annoyed at loses to the US on the defence front, this just reflects their short-comings in being able to produce a superir product in an open tendering process. If your reasoning is correc tand the Russians are miffed at losing out to the US more and more as they no longer enjoy a corrosive monopoly then these are not the kind of people India needs to be doing buisness with.

+ anyway there is enough of the Indian "defence pie" for everyone to get their slice and be happy with it, wanting anything more is pure greed.

 

[Abingdonboy]

And when I was telling you guys that India is losing its geopolitical clout, you were not listening to me.

It is not money only which matters at the world fora, it is more than that.

Are you in a position to throw everything Russian in your military inventory - I don't think so. You are still dependent upon Russia for most of your military hardware.

If you don't like Russian stuff, buy western. You are buying western hardware, but are also afraid that if they stop supplying for any reason, you will have to go to Russia.

Your alternatives are extremely limited.

You can not afford to put-off Russians at this stage. Learn to live with your anger or better, take a couple of BP lowering pills.

An utter nonsense post pull of contradictions and out and out lies! India is losing gqopolitial clout?? How the eff does a sane person come to this conclusion? Especially when all the evidence and trends strongly suggest otherwise!

 

[janon]

Your alternatives are extremely limited.

You can not afford to put-off Russians at this stage. Learn to live with your anger or better, take a couple of BP lowering pills.

In the world of global arms sales, our options are a LOT less limited than either of our neighbors, or for that matter, most countries in the world. Few countries have the priviledge of mixing Israeli, french and Indian avionics on a russian plane, or russian missiles on an american plane, or israeli radars and missiles on russian planes.

Learn to live with your jealousy, or....oh wait, they havent invented a pill for that yet.

 

[Sergi]

tbf things can crop up at the last minute and it seems he has pushed back his trip by a few days, if he had cancelled the entire trip then that would be something to read into. And it would be stupid for the Russians to be annoyed at loses to the US on the defence front, this just reflects their short-comings in being able to produce a superir product in an open tendering process. If your reasoning is correc tand the Russians are miffed at losing out to the US more and more as they no longer enjoy a corrosive monopoly then these are not the kind of people India needs to be doing buisness with.

+ anyway there is enough of the Indian "defence pie" for everyone to get their slice and be happy with it, wanting anything more is pure greed.

I don't think it's about greed. It's more about power projection and influence balancing. It's like protecting your play ground from intruders. Anyways it will be much clear in or after Putin's visit

And when I was telling you guys that India is losing its geopolitical clout, you were not listening to me.

It is not money only which matters at the world fora, it is more than that.

Are you in a position to throw everything Russian in your military inventory - I don't think so. You are still dependent upon Russia for most of your military hardware.

If you don't like Russian stuff, buy western. You are buying western hardware, but are also afraid that if they stop supplying for any reason, you will have to go to Russia.

Your alternatives are extremely limited.

You can not afford to put-off Russians at this stage. Learn to live with your anger or better, take a couple of BP lowering pills.

You will be right the day Putin cancel the visit to India and hang out with Zardari for tea in Islamabad. now what are the chance of that ???

 

[isro2222]

Russia is india's bestfriend.... However right now india alot angry.... India gave russia two options.... You postpone the defence minister's visit or we cancel it.... India didnt want to insult Russia and adviced them to postpone it and russia did exactly what india told them to do....
Admiral Gorshkov delay upsets India - TOI Mobile | The Times of India Mobile Site

 

[Ticker]

An utter nonsense post pull of contradictions and out and out lies! India is losing gqopolitial clout?? How the eff does a sane person come to this conclusion? Especially when all the evidence and trends strongly suggest otherwise!

Lets very briefly analyse the emerging geopolitical environment.

Geo-political environment is transitioning from American efforts to retain its uni-polarity to a stage where the emerging competitors are moving to a position of asserting their influence. Major US concerns focused on Asia include:

An emerging China.

Seeking and sustaining support for a countervailing India against China.

A resurgent Russia with an eye on Central Asia and a resurgent desire to reach warm waters through Pakistan.

A concerned Muslim world attempting to redefine its place in the world polity.

While US led efforts aimed at containment of Russia are stabilizing in Europe, endeavours to curtail Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasian hinterland are also underway.

What does US want from India:

India to act as a countervailing force against China.

As a milkman to sustain US economy.

Compete with Chinese economic progress.

Stabilize regional disputes with limited force projection capability.

Lets see what are India’s geopolitical and geostrategic strengths:

India cannot laterally expand its influence beyond its western borders due the existence of geo-political impediments in addition to the geographical restrictions placed by the presence of Pakistan, unless Pakistan allows it to do so.

Expansion of its influence towards the east is impeded due to the large geographical lay of China.

Myanmar can provide India with limited ability to expand towards South East Asia. Chinese influence in Myanmar has increased manifold and may limit future Indian endeavours.

Therefore the only direction it may be able to expand its influence is towards the vast expanse of sea in the south. The US also supports India’s increasing influence in IOR, but only as a second fiddle.

India would become a strong economic power and would be able to generate fair bit of economic influence in all those countries which are its trading partners and may also be able to exercise fair bit of negativity against Pakistan and China in this domain.

However, it’s overall power projection and generation of influence in the key regions would still remain limited unless it drastically improves relations with both Pakistan and China.

This fact also highlights the importance of strategic nature of Pak-China relationship.

Pakistan’s sympathetic leanings towards China is one of the major causes of Pak-US trust deficit.

However, the US in its endeavours to contain China is also eyeing Pakistan’s southern sea ports to acquire its own strategic corridor with links to Central Asian resources and to safeguard its interests.

Therefore, it is likely that the US will continue to act as Pakistan’s neighbour for quite some time through its presence in Afghanistan and the Gulf.

Therefore, India’s concerns as the time goes may not find due importance in places of import. This is so because India’s importance has diminished considerably due to her weakness at geopolitical and geostrategic levels.

 

[SpArK]

Russia deferred the visit to finalize "a concrete proposal'' for the refit-repair package of the 44,570-tonne Vikramaditya.

Russian defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov defers visit to India - The Times of India

India and Russia are also expected to discuss ongoing projects for 272 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters and 1,657 T-90 main-battle tanks.

India-Russia defence talks: Aircraft carrier delay to top agenda | NDTV.com