Russia expects NK to collapse by 2020; doesn't expect Chinese "intervention

[Korean]

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020

Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020

The Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russia's foremost national policy think tank, takes the imminent collapse of the North Korean regime as a given in a special report published recently. IMEMO concludes that Korean reunification led by South Korea coincides with Russia's national interests.

IMEMO spent years to prepare the report, which is part of the Russian government's 20-year master plan and was published in September.

◆ The End of North Korea

The 480-page special report obtained by the Chosun Ilbo has five pages referring to the Korean Peninsula. It says the regime's collapse is "accelerating" and that although reunification may not be fully achieved, the two Koreas will take "actual steps" toward reunification in the next two decades.

IMEMO believes the 2012-2020 transfer of power from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un will trigger the collapse of the North. The leadership crisis will lead to a power struggle between "bureaucrats" with foreign business connections and "military and security officials" with no outside links, the report said.

Then over the following decade, a provisional North Korean government would be established under the aegis of the international community so that the North comes under South Korean control, while the North's military will be disarmed and modernization get underway, the report forecast. IMEMO said the North Korean economy will gradually be absorbed into South Korea's in the process and that around 1 million North Korean supporters of the old regime will flee to either China or Russia.

Russia's think tank advising state foreign policy states that NK's regime will completely collapse by 2020, and that it would be taken over by the South.

Russia doesn't expect Chinese to "intervene" as many Chinese posters here presumably assume, since the cost of such intervention is so high to China(half a million troop dead, economic activity in China freezes); China will now have to live with anti-China alliance troops near its border, 600 km away from Beijing.

 

[Nomenclature]

Russia doesn't expect Chinese to "intervene" as many Chinese posters here presumably assume, since the cost of such intervention is so high to China(half a million troop dead, economic activity in China freezes); China will now have to live with anti-China alliance troops near its border, 600 km away from Beijing.

Do you have the report in English? Just the 5 pages on the Korean peninsula out of the 480 pages report would be good. Because there's nothing in the article you quoted implies any of your assertions.

 

[gagaga]

consider the south korea has unbelievable territory request/ demand on Chinese land, its a must to pay a price to keep korea split apart.

 

[Imran Khan]

wow its was there ex-son lolz

 

[Fantasy]

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020



Russia's think tank advising state foreign policy states that NK's regime will completely collapse by 2020, and that it would be taken over by the South.

Russia doesn't expect Chinese to "intervene" as many Chinese posters here presumably assume, since the cost of such intervention is so high to China(half a million troop dead, economic activity in China freezes); China will now have to live with anti-China alliance troops near its border, 600 km away from Beijing.

That's all good, North Korea unified will knock some common sense back to some of the big headed, inferior complexity South Korean American dependency state head, what Russia main goal is no Nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula and also selling their natural resources, and no more atomic test, so is China's and America and Japan and the world's goal.

 

[applesauce]

The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Daily News from Korea - Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020



Russia's think tank advising state foreign policy states that NK's regime will completely collapse by 2020, and that it would be taken over by the South.

Russia doesn't expect Chinese to "intervene" as many Chinese posters here presumably assume, since the cost of such intervention is so high to China(half a million troop dead, economic activity in China freezes); China will now have to live with anti-China alliance troops near its border, 600 km away from Beijing.

can u link report? i see nothing that backs up ur claims

500k dead that's not an intervention that's all out war, the korean war itself in the 50's saw less than 200k Chinese KIA, in addition economic activity in china freeze= world wide depression

 

[Fantasy]

Some of the history thieving delusional South Koreans have a very funny way of thinking, they look at every Korean development as another nail in the coffin of Chinese grave, weird, attention seeking?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Seoul is too close to the North Korean border.

Seoul contains over half the entire South Korean population. Kim Jong-Il is holding Seoul hostage, with his thousands of artillery pieces, and with his nuclear weapons.

That's why no one dares to respond when North Korea sunk the Cheonan (killing 46 soldiers) or when they bombarded that South Korean island with artillery shells. Kim Jong-Il can take Seoul off the map within the first few moments of war.

 

[MilSpec]

Seoul is too close to the North Korean border.

Seoul contains over half the entire South Korean population. Kim Jong-Il is holding Seoul hostage, with his thousands of artillery pieces, and with his nuclear weapons.

That's why no one dares to respond when North Korea sunk the Cheonan (killing 46 soldiers) or when they bombarded that South Korean island with artillery shells. Kim Jong-Il can take Seoul off the map within the first few moments of war.

And still china supports this dictator, isn't it sad?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

And still china supports this dictator, isn't it sad?

If the North Korean regime collapses, then millions of Korean refugees will stream over the border into China, and many millions more will starve to death within North Korea itself.

We will of course take all actions to protect our own national interests.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Don't worry, if NK does collapse in the future, then CCP will make sure that it will become a new province of China.

 

[Sasquatch]

Don't worry, if NK does collapse in the future, then CCP will make sure that it will become a new province of China.

We don't need 20 million refugees the solution is get rid of the Kims and install a Pro China Military junta, however I agree there will be a point where North Korea becomes apart of China or we use it as a bargining chip for a Neutral United Korea that has the same level relationship with us in military, economy etc etc as it does with the USA.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

We don't need 20 million refugees the solution is get rid of the Kims and install a Pro China Military junta, however I agree there will be a point where North Korea becomes apart of China or we use it as a bargining chip for a Neutral United Korea that has the same level relationship with us in military, economy etc etc as it does with the USA.

I was just kidding.

Yep, we will definitely make sure it is always a usable buffer zone for us.

 

[Bobshouse]

China would be silly to intervene in any North / South conflict. It would look stupid propping up a crazy military dictatorship that has more interest in nukes than feeding its people. Yes there would be a lot of people streaming over the border, but once the dust settles those people would be integrated back into responsible governance.
I also dont see any possibility of a North nuke attack, they would most likely be taken care of before they left the ground. Even if they did make it in the air they would be shot out of the sky. North Korea is a loser country with loser leadership. While the dear leader builds private trains and networks for his son and lives in opulence the rest of the country starve to death.
I cant see how anybody would be pro North. The only reason I cant see is the South is supported by the US, some people in their blind hatred of the US will go against them no matter what they do. Crazy.

 

[Imran Khan]

Don't worry, if NK does collapse in the future, then CCP will make sure that it will become a new province of China.

how many more countries CCP needed dear