Rupee firms against US dollar

[Chak Bamu]

I am an exporter, so I stand to lose a little.

But man, this appreciation of PRs is worth it for the simple joy of seeing @VCheng go bonkers trying to convince us that the actual situation is really really bad, and then PRs appreciates some more.... VCheng, how is your butt feeling now?

 

[SBD-3]

Such trickery, no matter how innovative, in support of the PKR in the face of an adverse balance of payment is a violation of the SBP's commitments to the IMF and will soon stop, if it is indeed happening

Just a hint: rather than trickery the crackdown at kerb market did pay off well. Much of the money was being either smuggled out of the country in hard cash (exploiting USD qouta for travelers) and off the book transactions of exchange companies.

 

[VCheng]

Just a hint: rather than trickery the crackdown at kerb market did pay off well. Much of the money was being either smuggled out of the country in hard cash (exploiting USD qouta for travelers) and off the book transactions of exchange companies.

Oh yes, such steps are fine, but they will not be sustainable for long. It is the robustness of the economy, or its lack, that will make the true difference over time.

 

[SBD-3]

I am an exporter, so I stand to lose a little.

But man, this appreciation of PRs is worth it for the simple joy of seeing @VCheng go bonkers trying to convince us that the actual situation is really really bad, and then PRs appreciates some more.... VCheng, how is your butt feeling now?

He is not entirely incorrect, just that he is over-blowing the fundamental pattern.

Oh yes, such steps are fine, but they will not be sustainable for long. It is the robustness of the economy, or its lack, that will make the true difference over time.

Economy can grow either way 1) Engineering export surpluses (Like China,Germany and Japan do) or 2) By fueling internal demand via credit growth model (like what happened in Pakistan,US and India). Both have proven prone to risks, so a robust economy doesn't necessarily lead to domestic currency appreciation.

 

[Panther 57]

You your self is running conspiracy theories.
Definitely, there has been relatively better security situation as compare to Zardari, TTP is on the run.
And there are announcements of investments from UAE, KSA & China.
Pakistan is also showcasing its defence products, and we are optimistic of big news sooner than later.
All of these factors, ought to have positive effect on Pakistan currency.
Sharif may be an idiot but he is better than Zardari and Imran Khan, still long way to come any where close to Musharraf bench mark.

yes that is the conspiracy theory I came across today. Linked to long awaited dream of MNS to become Amir ul Momineen.

To reach Gen PM benchmark, both of them have to reborn a couple of times.

 

[rockstarIN]

Dollar is weak against most of the world currencies. The pix is not clear...wait for some time till Ukraine stuff is over

 

[My-Analogous]

When i made comments two months back then every one hitting me back like any thing, the original value of Pk Rs. is some where between 95 to 96 and by April Forex will jump somewhere 11 to 13 Billion Dollar

 

[VCheng]

When i made comments two months back then every one hitting me back like any thing, the original value of Pk Rs. is some where between 95 to 96 and by April Forex will jump somewhere 11 to 13 Billion Dollar

What is "original value"? How far do you want to go back? The reason the PKR has steadily deteriorated in value over the last several decades is because of the adverse balance of payments and the weak economy, and the same weaknesses are just as true today as a few weeks ago.

He is not entirely incorrect, just that he is over-blowing the fundamental pattern.


Economy can grow either way 1) Engineering export surpluses (Like China,Germany and Japan do) or 2) By fueling internal demand via credit growth model (like what happened in Pakistan,US and India). Both have proven prone to risks, so a robust economy doesn't necessarily lead to domestic currency appreciation.

It is not the only thing, yes, but for Pakistan's situation, it is clearly a dominant factor.

 

[ziaulislam]

This jump is a temporary manipulation based on borrowed monies and will inevitably lead to a crash.

What "greater amount of investment in the next few years"? The $48 billion from UAE? Or the $100 billion from China? Or may be the investors see a trained labor force, good infrastructure, and effective law and order? Riiiiiiiiight.

Oh wait, there is "optimism in Lahore". Surely that is enough to make people ignore reality.

isnt money borrowing which every economy does. if you talking of short term debt maturing, Pakistan isnt that bad in position. if you talking of current account deficit . its improving rapidly and is already much better than whats in the region.

if you talking of foreign investment its improving plus we are expecting inflows from world bank, 3g licenses aution and etisalat.

however, i think the rupee gain is more sentimental but the loss it showed was also more sentimental driven in the 1st place!!
rupee might stabilize around 103 after gaining to 100 and dropping agin.
govt has pushed the reserves to 9 billion dollars with confirm release of 1.5 billion from world bank coming next month. also no major repayment to IMF anytime soon
its quiet possible that govt might acheive the target of 16 billion dollars reserve by end of this year

bringing down the rupee too much will hurt the exports and increase current account deficit. govt should maintain it around 100. but that will mean long term debuts in term of rupees will be higher

 

[Chak Bamu]

He is not entirely incorrect, just that he is over-blowing the fundamental pattern.

I am not saying that he is entirely wrong. I am just pointing out that @VCheng is always advertising pessimism, suspicion, and cynicism when it comes to Pakistan. He hates any good news coming out of Pakistan. I am just enjoying his misery for a change.

 

[VCheng]

isnt money borrowing which every economy does. if you talking of short term debt maturing, Pakistan isnt that bad in position. if you talking of current account deficit . its improving rapidly and is already much better than whats in the region.

if you talking of foreign investment its improving plus we are expecting inflows from world bank, 3g licenses aution and etisalat.

however, i think the rupee gain is more sentimental but the loss it showed was also more sentimental driven in the 1st place!!
rupee might stabilize around 103 after gaining to 100 and dropping agin.
govt has pushed the reserves to 9 billion dollars with confirm release of 1.5 billion from world bank coming next month. also no major repayment to IMF anytime soon
its quiet possible that govt might acheive the target of 16 billion dollars reserve by end of this year

bringing down the rupee too much will hurt the exports and increase current account deficit. govt should maintain it around 100. but that will mean long term debuts in term of rupees will be higher

One of the signs of an appreciating currency is low inflation. If the recent appreciation of the PKR is real and not a mere manipulation, then where is the corresponding drop in inflation? By all measures, inflation is running at high levels commensurate with the true rate of depreciation.

 

[guluchulo]

Hopefully this trend continue for 100 hundred days and $ and rs become equal in worth.

 

[American Pakistani]

I was surprised to see the conversion rate at 100.900 today. Hopefully it comes down to at least 85 this year.

 

[S.Bukhari]

One of the signs of an appreciating currency is low inflation. If the recent appreciation of the PKR is real and not a mere manipulation, then where is the corresponding drop in inflation? By all measures, inflation is running at high levels commensurate with the true rate of depreciation.

Where did you study economics my friend??? Inflation always increase when FDI comes as the purchasing power increases . Hope you understand I can elaborate more if you like .

 

[VCheng]

Where did you study economics my friend??? Inflation always increase when FDI comes as the purchasing power increases . Hope you understand I can elaborate more if you like .

The smaller the value of a currency unit falls, the more units needed to buy the same goods. This is inflation. Comprende? Now take a stock of the value of the PKR and inflation rate over the last several years.

Besides, all the claims of FDI in the tens of billions of dollars are nowhere to be found in reality.