Report: Bangladesh to become 28th most powerful economy in 13 years

[Species]

2050.. we should be able to in top 10 in GDP size not in GDP/Capita

When the mega-projects are online, we sure should be witnessing a massive economic boom.

 

[Mage]

It should get into the top 20 in ppp term.

I was thinking the same actually.

I was talking about 2050, the report says we will be 23rd largest at that time which is not impressive.

Well, any prediction which takes you 30+ forward is not something to be taken seriously. Same goes for the prediction which takes us to 2030.

I posted this because......I saw an old thread here on PDF(from 2009 I somehow lost the thread) which was about Bangladesh economy...where the OP predicted(posted an article which said) Bangladesh economy(110 Bn) that time will be around 250Bn in 2017.

And coming to think of it it is indeed near 250bn today. He(that post) predicted the economy to reach 1 trillion by 2030.

 

[Species]

I was thinking the same actually.


Well, any prediction which takes you 30+ forward is not something to be taken seriously. Same goes for the prediction which takes us to 2030.

I posted this because......I saw an old thread here on PDF(from 2009 I somehow lost the thread) which was about Bangladesh economy...where the OP predicted(posted an article which said) Bangladesh economy(110 Bn) that time will be around 250Bn in 2017.

And coming to think of it it is indeed near 250bn today. He(that post) predicted the economy to reach 1 trillion by 2030.

If an economy continues to grow at 7% then every 7 years, the GDP gets doubled. So reaching $1 trillion-mark is possible if we continue our current growth of over 7% through 2030.

 

[Mage]

If an economy continues to grow at 7% then every 7 years, the GDP gets doubled. So reaching $1 trillion-mark is possible if we continue our current growth of over 7% through 2030.

Aye. But we won't be growing by 7% depending on RMG much long.

 

[Species]

Aye. But we won't be growing by 7% depending on RMG much long.

That's the concern and I think this is why we are building economic zones all over the country. Many economic zones will be getting online in the next few years. In Mirsharai, it will be a massive industrial city of 30,000 acres. Then there will be hi-tech parks for sophisticated technology based industries.

 

[damiendehorn]

That's the concern and I think this is why we are building economic zones all over the country. Many economic zones will be getting online in the next few years. In Mirsharai, it will be a massive industrial city of 30,000 acres. Then there will be hi-tech parks for sophisticated technology based industries.

The plan is to have at least 100 SEZs.

Aye. But we won't be growing by 7% depending on RMG much long.

Current RMG exports are around the $25bn mark, this will continue to grow in volume and value added to $50bn. We are already seeing rapid growth in the leather sector (i am already investing in this), with major footwear manufacturers shifting production from China to Bangladesh (a large SEZ for this has recently been anounced).

Diversification to white goods and light engineering is already starting to sprout (Bangladesh is rapidly becoming a major bicycle manufacturer) with innovative companies like Walton.

What we lacked was good infrastructure, power, and regulatory enviroment...these are now beeing put into place and you will see the results in the next decade. I followed similar development paterns in Thailand and to a lesser extent South Korea.

 

[bd_4_ever]

Short warning: This thread will by horded by trolls quite soon. Just so you know.

Lets enjoy the healthy discussion while it lasts.

 

[TopCat]

With best case scenario 15% nominal growth will make our economy 1.5 trillion in 13 years

 

[rome333]

REMEMBER guys,
Whatever We, the IMF, Govt, others predict, all predictions are based on Ceteris Paribus. Simply meaning everything else will remain the same as they are now.
And in 50 years time surely many of other things will certainly not remain the same! A lot of obstacles and conflicts will be one the way.

With best case scenario 15% nominal growth will make our economy 1.5 trillion in 13 years

What do you mean by Nominal growth? Is it nominal growth in GDP you mean?

 

[Michael Corleone]

From 31st to 28th in 13 years... sounds impressive?
So by 2050 if we are at 23rd place.... we will be at a position India currently is at or what?

 

[rome333]

Short warning: This thread will by horded by trolls quite soon. Just so you know.

Lets enjoy the healthy discussion while it lasts.

Take a look, Indian trolls are already here....best to ignore. Thanks for warning. Cheers.

 

[Nilgiri]

5% annual growth over the next 34 year, LOL, we are already growing at over 7% per year. We grew an average of over 6% in the last decade "without" the major infrastructural investments like road, rail, port, airports, power, bridges, education etc etc.

We will grow an average of 7%-8% in the next decade and between 8% to 9% in the following decade dropping back to 7%-8% in the third decade when the medan income rises to a level where we begin to lose low cost work to other countries (similar to the shift that is happening in China now).

If Bangladesh can improve its infra, diversify the economy, and improve the eduction system....it should be able to maintain a growth rate of 7%-8% for a long while.

Dont you understand that nominal growth is not PPP growth?

The PwC report if you bothered to read it is projecting 8% nominal growth (not real) per year for BD till 2030.

But there is going to be a PPP multiplier deflation over time so it corresponds to about 5% growth per annum in these terms that PwC projects. It is simply a natural extension of non-insulation and integration with global price levels over time (along with the fact real growth will of course be smaller than nominal to begin with too).

Now continue to make your rosy projections while Bangladesh future workforce is projected to be worse than India's current work force in education and training:

https://defence.pk/threads/whats-holding-back-bangladesh.474841/#post-9149084

Anyone with sense and neutrality will see through the BBS bullcrap.

 

[Śakra]

 

[xyxmt]

what about that country who will be 150th The most powerful economy in the world, no one opened a thread for that country

 

[Mage]

From 31st to 28th in 13 years... sounds impressive?
So by 2050 if we are at 23rd place.... we will be at a position India currently is at or what?

You got it all wrong mister. Bangladesh is in 44th position in terms of nominal gdp and this report predicts it ill rise to 28th. In terms of PPP its at 32nd position now and I agree with TopCat that by the time we become 28th in terms of Nominal GDP we'll be in top 20 in PPP.

India is a different story entirely. They are 3rd in terms of PPP and maybe 5-7 in terms of nominal now iirc.

Dont you understand that nominal growth is not PPP growth?

The PwC report if you bothered to read it is projecting 8% nominal growth (not real) per year for BD till 2030.

But there is going to be a PPP multiplier deflation over time so it corresponds to about 5% growth per annum in these terms that PwC projects. It is simply a natural extension of non-insulation and integration with global price levels over time (along with the fact real growth will of course be smaller than nominal to begin with too).

Now continue to make your rosy projections while Bangladesh future workforce is projected to be worse than India's current work force in education and training:

https://defence.pk/threads/whats-holding-back-bangladesh.474841/#post-9149084

Anyone with sense and neutrality will see through the BBS bullcrap.

C'mon, he just confused PPP with nominal. No need for a response like this. And everyone knows projection can go wrong.

#notInMyThread