Replacing the F-16: Will Pakistan’s Top Fighter Squadron Transition to Chinese J-10Cs?

[StructE]

If the US realises it has lost its influence on Pak because Pak had other options, why would it see the need to leverage influence through military sales? Furthermore, exactly what has the US gained by influencing Pak though military sales? Nothing. It's lost in Afghanistan because of Pak policy. There's very little strategic gain to be had from Pak from the point of view of rh US, it's simply utilised what little it could due to Afghanistan and then turned its back on Pak, as it did in the 80s.

Military sale did their part well and provided us the necessary influence, some of which still exist today. US lost in Afghanistan by appeasing India, Afghanistan would still be in firm control if we have not brought India there, insurgency if any would still be minimal. People in policy making circles probably underestimated this or took Pakistan for granted. No US administration wanted to be in this position where we are today, its a failure, but policy makers believe that the can afford this failure for the greater purpose of "Pivot to Asia".

Going back to the point, Biden admin wanted a middle ground by having a staging location in Pakistan, it was a bit naïve for them to expect that they will get base for some vipers and zulus while Pakistan is fully committed to China. So yes, gist is that nothing meaning full in terms of big ticket military hardware will happen in next 10 years.

 

[redtom]

It works both ways maray bhai
When the u.s govt. Cut out Pak military from all training programs and associated courses. Pentagon was very unhappy with the decision as it knew that such a decision would mean total loss of influence due to the simple fact that Pakistan has other options.
So realizing their mistake they very quietly resumed the training program and all the associated courses. But the damage had already been done as the void left by the u.s was filled by other powers and the powers that be in the u.s realise this.
So u.s will continue to engage the Pak military at the very least n continue providing n selling hardware as it realizes fully that gone r the days when it was the only one calling the shots.

America's politicians seem to be ignoring all professional advice, to irreparable damage.

 

[Pak Nationalist]

After 50 days long discussion by all forum members,
What is end result Conclusion of this topic,
"" Replacing the F-16: Will Pakistan’s do , Top Fighter Squadron Transition to Chinese J-10Cs?..
Thread starterZarvan

Admins should close the threads or warn members if they begin going on tangents. Now everything under the sun from America in Afghanistan, India in Afghanistan to American weapons for Pakistan in the future is being discussed, but the subject matter of the post is buried somewhere deep in a sea of irrelevance.

 

[CriticalThought]

@messiach is there any chance that this alleged purchase of 'J-10' is actually a delta wing variant of Thunder? Is there any delta wing variant under consideration at all?

 

[Abid123]

Only 5th generation should replace F-16s.

 

[MastanKhan]

Strange news are coming up that 36 of J-10 c , being given to Pakistan by China will have different kind of RADAR and Missiles ??
What is it and what is reality ??

Hi,

There is no surprise in it. The israelis have their own electeronics package in their F35's

Given to Pakistan....
Is there news that these aircraft are being donated??

Hi,

Would they Kill any different if they are donated or if they are paid for---?

 

[Raider 21]

Hi,

There is no surprise in it. The israelis have their own electeronics package in their F35's


Hi,

Would they Kill any different if they are donated or if they are paid for---?

Hush Mastan. I read it as given in an earlier post. I assumed that it was going to be some sort of donation without major monetary contribution. Hope this clears the confusion.

Doubt they'd kill differently.

Cheers.

 

[messiach]

No.
It does not make sense to have two planes with similar capability. It would be a backward step.
What we do need is AESA capability for Mirages & inhouse TF development.

@messiach is there any chance that this alleged purchase of 'J-10' is actually a delta wing variant of Thunder? Is there any delta wing variant under consideration at all?

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

dude... get a life.... you are a kid who is stuck on a repeat....

MLU structural rebuild..... read .. read.. read.

Isreal/Egypt get a lot of freebies either from their Pimps US or mandi overfed pimps in GCC/KSA ... they can afford to retire them.

Ngl I love me some good mandi

 

[Aamir Hussain]

IMHO the capability of J-10C, at this point in time, is not up to the par of the latest F-16's, period. So if PAF is not significantly upgrading its war-fighting ability by inducting J-10C it is not worth its while keeping in view the amount needed to be spent on not only the acquisition of the a/c itself but the life cycle cost of the entire program and the induction time needed.

However, if the requirement is to enhance the number of squadrons with higher performance a/c or overall strength of the fleet than J-10C can be a contender along with the latest Grippen.

 

[CriticalThought]

No.
It does not make sense to have two planes with similar capability. It would be a backward step.
What we do need is AESA capability for Mirages & inhouse TF development.

But Mirage equipped with AESA and enhanced engine is quite similar to Block-3 with delta wings. We recognize the need for delta wings, why not replace the aging Mirage airframes with something that has a lot of design and production line commonality with our existing platform? That sounds like the logical thing to do. You are saying the two planes will have similar capability, whereas the delta wings will have very different aerodynamic characteristics. And if you equip it with a different avionics package as well, you will get different result.

 

[iLION12345_1]

IMHO the capability of J-10C, at this point in time, is not up to the par of the latest F-16's, period. So if PAF is not significantly upgrading its war-fighting ability by inducting J-10C it is not worth its while keeping in view the amount needed to be spent on not only the acquisition of the a/c itself but the life cycle cost of the entire program and the induction time needed.

However, if the requirement is to enhance the number of squadrons with higher performance a/c or overall strength of the fleet than J-10C can be a contender along with the latest Grippen.

If Pakistan does induct J-10C I doubt it will be in the same form as the chinese ones, we’re already hearing they want better radars with them. PAF would want the J-10 to be as good as possible before they buy it, historically speaking Pakistan has always configured Chinese weapon purchases to its liking before buying them too.

While I would say the F-16V is still a slightly superior platform Than the J-10C due to its better engine and higher payload capacity, but those aren’t really an option anymore and PAF needs something to make up for that.

However the platform being slightly inferior is made up by the weapon systems of the J-10. The current Chinese missiles are very good, PL-10E is comparable to the AIM9X and the PL-15 is definitely better than the AIM120C5/C7 and probably even the AIM120D (the AIM260 is meant to be the answer to PL-15 but that’s not ready yet and even when it is ready won’t be cleared for export for a while). J-10C also has some other advantages like better airframe makeup (materials and RCS + DSI, it’s newer after all, the F-16 airframe is rather basic) as well as a good future due to its younger age.

Pakistan doesn’t have the latest F-16s, so for Pakistan the J-10 would definitely be a major capability boost as they’re better than the Block 52+ in nearly every category. Yes, all this considered, its not an ideal situation, but PAF has hardly ever had an ideal situation in its existence, they do good with what they have.

Fifth-Gen is still too far off to just hold out until those come. Gripen still has issues for us as it uses some American origin technology, and to be completely honest the Gripen isn’t that much of an upgrade from a JF-17 block 3 in its role and capability. We also have to remember that purchasing the aircraft isn’t the only thing, the weapons you purchase with it matter a lot, We cannot get any good BVR missiles for gripen since it uses French MICA, American AIM120 (we have C5s and they’re still decent but those are only enough for our F-16 fleet and they’re not comparable to modern BVRs) or European meteor (which also has a French part to it and wasn’t available to us when we tried to get eurofighter so I doubt it’ll be available now.)

Pakistan is kind of limited to the J-10 option, and it’s thankfully not the worst option, even if it isn’t the best.

As for cost, inducting the J-10 would actually be the cheapest among any of the possible options, due to its shared weapon systems with the JF (another advantage is how the tech from J-10 will trickle down to future JFs) and due to it’s Chinese origin (we know Pakistan gets preferential treatment from China).

Any other aircraft like SU35, EF, Gripen would require entirely new weapon systems which wouldn’t be shared with our other aircraft. In a world where Pak-US relations were different, F-16V would have been the only better option than J-10, but it’s currently not an option at all.

 

[The Raven]

IMHO the capability of J-10C, at this point in time, is not up to the par of the latest F-16's, period. So if PAF is not significantly upgrading its war-fighting ability by inducting J-10C it is not worth its while keeping in view the amount needed to be spent on not only the acquisition of the a/c itself but the life cycle cost of the entire program and the induction time needed.

However, if the requirement is to enhance the number of squadrons with higher performance a/c or overall strength of the fleet than J-10C can be a contender along with the latest Grippen.

With all due respect, the your logic seems inconsistent. If the J-10C offers little in the way of capability enhancement vs F-16, you're right, there's a limited argument to be had to induct yet another type (and engine) and the concomitant lifecycle costs. However, the same argument can be applied to the Gripen NG and the JF-17 Block III...why acquire the Gripen NG which has similar performance as the Block III? You could argue AESA radar and weapons...but that's negated with the KJL-7A AESA and PL-15 combo.

Look, here's the thing with the circular argument that seems to be constantly going round on this forum. The PAF faces the uncertainty of where to allocate its meagre resources, and this is the choice the PAF faces...

Vipers - The choice here is whether Pakistan wants to fully pay for these options, because US subsidies are no longer available.

• upgrade the existing fleet to V standard (feasible)
• Acquire more surplus airframes and upgrade (feasible, maybe)
• New airframes (very unlikely)

JF-17 - The PAF is committed to the full lifecycle development and operation of the JF-17, so any suggestion of clawing this back is a no go, given the investment in production and MRO, and the numbers projected (200-250).

• At least 50 Block III airframes (highly likely)
• Upgrade previous blocks to Block III standard avionics + weapons (highly likely)
• Further development of the airframe to a 'Block IV' (highly unlikely)
• Continuous enhancement of avionics and weapons to existing Blocks (highly likely)

J-10C - This is the dilemma the PAF faces, and it all depends on what the PAF decides with the Vipers. IMO, I don't think the PAF is willing to invest further in the operational lifecycle of the Vipers, not if it has to pay for them fully without US subsidies. If it decides to go ahead with the J-10 purchase, it implies that the current state of the Viper fleet will remain as it is until decommissioned, and augmenting the Viper fleet with additional 'medium' weight airframes and a hedge against potential US sanctions (the PAF has adopted a similar 'western + eastern' platform policy for other capabilities, e.g. AWACS). This is particularly acute for the phased transition until whatever comes from Azm.

Chinese Flankers, Typhoons, Su-35s - Hot air from fan boys and nothing else.

@Bilal Khan (Quwa)

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

With all due respect, the your logic seems inconsistent. If the J-10C offers little in the way of capability enhancement vs F-16, you're right, there's a limited argument to be had to induct yet another type (and engine) and the concomitant lifecycle costs. However, the same argument can be applied to the Gripen NG and the JF-17 Block III...why acquire the Gripen NG which has similar performance as the Block III? You could argue AESA radar and weapons...but that's negated with the KJL-7A AESA and PL-15 combo.

Look, here's the thing with the circular argument that seems to be constantly going round on this forum. The PAF faces the uncertainty of where to allocate its meagre resources, and this is the choice the PAF faces...

Vipers - The choice here is whether Pakistan wants to fully pay for these options, because US subsidies are no longer available.

• upgrade the existing fleet to V standard (feasible)
• Acquire more surplus airframes and upgrade (feasible, maybe)
• New airframes (very unlikely)

JF-17 - The PAF is committed to the full lifecycle development and operation of the JF-17, so any suggestion of clawing this back is a no go, given the investment in production and MRO, and the numbers projected (200-250).

• At least 50 Block III airframes (highly likely)
• Upgrade previous blocks to Block III standard avionics + weapons (highly likely)
• Further development of the airframe to a 'Block IV' (highly unlikely)
• Continuous enhancement of avionics and weapons to existing Blocks (highly likely)

J-10C - This is the dilemma the PAF faces, and it all depends on what the PAF decides with the Vipers. IMO, I don't think the PAF is willing to invest further in the operational lifecycle of the Vipers, not if it has to pay for them fully without US subsidies. If it decides to go ahead with the J-10 purchase, it implies that the current state of the Viper fleet will remain as it is until decommissioned, and augmenting the Viper fleet with additional 'medium' weight airframes and a hedge against potential US sanctions (the PAF has adopted a similar 'western + eastern' platform policy for other capabilities, e.g. AWACS). This is particularly acute for the phased transition until whatever comes from Azm.

Chinese Flankers, Typhoons, Su-35s - Hot air from fan boys and nothing else.

@Bilal Khan (Quwa)

I agree. I'd add that the J-10CE would also be the start of the PAF's 'next generation' fleet. AZM/NGFA is still a loose variable, a lot of uncertainties (besides flowery words from the PAF). However, the J-10CE is real and tangible -- if past PAF procurement habits are anything to go by, the PAF could ultimately commit to 90+ units. IMO, I'd weigh more on additional J-10CEs until we see tangible progress towards AZM.

 

[Foinikas]

Why would you want to replace the F-16? Out of all the aircraft you have,why the F-16? You have F-7s and Mirage III and V that you could retire