Recent events in the north suggest - Iran is probably still far from a bomb. opinion
Ami Rukhas Domba 14/05/2018 Contact author
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Military parade in Iran (Archive photo: AP)
The recent attacks in Syria attributed to Israel against Iranian targets combined with Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the lack of a serious Iranian response suggest that Iran is apparently far from a nuclear bomb. If Iran had a bomb or was close to the bomb, the cost of Trump's withdrawal from the agreement was an Iranian nuclear bomb - and this is a risk that the US would not tolerate.
What raised the confidence that the Iranians are far from a bomb? Apparently, new documents arrived in the United States and Israel, claiming that the Mossad had obtained an archive of the Iranian nuclear program, but that the analysis of the data from Netanyahu's presentation raises several gaps in the explanation, such as how a state maintains a nuclear program archive outside a security facility in a civilian environment , Without guard, in a dilapidated warehouse, and other signs.
Another possibility is that the information came from North Korea. As a major supplier of Iran's nuclear program, including a joint venture to build a reactor in Syria in 2007, Pyongyang can verify with a high level of confidence the real status of Iran's nuclear program. In this context, the secret negotiations between the United States and Pyongyang, including one visit by Pompau as head of the CIA to Kim over the past few months, could be an explanation: It is not inconceivable that North Korea The Iranian nuclear program on a silver platter.
What did Trump give in return? Apparently reducing US involvement in the South China Sea. Behind the negotiations between North Korea and the United States is China as Kim's patron, and China wants the resources of the South China Sea and also uninterrupted control of the White House, in return for which Trump will get the North Korean and Iranian decommissioning from a nuclear program and missiles.
In Israel and the United States they understood - the king is naked
Whether it is a Mossad operation or documents from North Korea, the documents themselves apparently proved to Israel and the United States that there is no bomb in Iran, and that it is not close to one either.In the past, Iran's nuclear program was stuck at least three times with technical problems related to research and development. The new material obtained at the beginning of 2018 can explain Trump's departure from the agreement - the cost of the mistake is that such a departure would not lead to a nuclear threat from Iran, and Trump also understands something else. And that 's exactly what he' s aiming at.
For its part, Israel understood that if Iran has nothing in hand, and Trump leaves the agreement, Iran will act to achieve two goals - to create quiet time to reach the bomb and to preserve Hezbollah's deterrence against Israel in order to prevent an attack on Iran. In order to create quiet, Iran must wedge a wedge between the United States and those who want to preserve the existing agreement that gives it peace, and in order to make a wedge it must play the game, among other things, temporarily relinquish its activity in Syria.
Trump's and Israel's claims against Iran, in addition to developing a nuclear program, include resistance to missile development and support for terrorism in the Middle East. Similar claims were heard from European leaders following Trump's announcement. In other words, if Iran wants to gain time to develop a bomb by means of political manipulations in the international arena, it must follow the lines of Europe. Stop developing missiles and reduce signatures in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Little Red Riding Hood for the Iranians in Syria
In Jerusalem, they exploited this insight and decided to make Iran a Red Riding Hood in Syria. The understanding was that Iran would not respond in order not to move the Europeans to Trump's side. Israel then began to market to the world that the Iranian threat in Syria is critical and justifies a heightened alert in Israel and a preemptive strike. The IDF played the game, heightened alertness in the north as if it were waiting for an Iranian response, and the real aim was to provide a safety net for a series of planned attacks in Syria on Iranian targets.
The attack from Syria last week was also part of a game whose end is known. According to the IDF Spokesperson's Office, Iran's response included Grad rockets and Fajr-5 missiles, known and not new in the arena. The attack also involved an Iranian multi-barrel rocket launcher, according to the IDF, which also exists in Syria at least since 2015. In the absence of a new weapon, the attack served as an excuse for the IDF to launch another wave of attacks against Iranian targets in Syria. Fell into the trash the IDF had laid for them. Raising the alert in northern Israel was publicized a few days earlier, and the Iranians decided to fire at Israel.
Iran's 'Catch-22'
Exposing the fact that Iran has no nuclear capability and is not close to it, however, has pulled out all the Iranian cover that provided it with ambiguity on this issue. As long as you do not know exactly the nuclear status of a country, the cost of the mistake is too great, and you are careful to take every step in front of it. When you know that it has nothing in your hand, your confidence increases, because the cost of the mistake is very small. This can explain the Israeli boldness in recent weeks in Syria and the American boldness to break the dishes. A daring that did not exist with respect to Iran during the first year of Trump's rule.
Iran, for its part, entered a trap. Her desire for a bomb and exposing the truth about her nuclear program requires her to make concessions in the light of the US move: If she has a nuclear bomb or something close to it, she should have pulled it out now and reached the negotiating table that won the upper hand. As North Korea did. She did not.
Instead, Iran must follow the demands of the United States and Europe (without nuclear weapons, missiles and terrorism), which will allow it to wedge a wedge between the US and Europe and give it time to accelerate its secret nuclear program, including finding a partner to help bridge the gaps. Technologists in the program instead of North Korea.
This is not a simple operational mission for Iran. The intelligence services of Israel and the United States sit there
On the tail, the US has renewed the sanctions, and North Korea has closed the door because of negotiations with the US This situation is pushing Iran toward China, Russia or Pakistan, countries that can help it reach the core, even if it happens. It would take a long time to demand that Iran reduce its activity in the aforementioned routes, meaning that Iran should reduce its signature in Syria and spur the Israeli attacks in Yemen in the face of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, at least temporarily until it achieves significant progress on the nuclear axis or reaches a new agreement with the United States, B. At the same time, Iran can not sacrifice Hezbollah on the altar of revenge in Israel. The organization in Lebanon is a deterrent to Israel in order not to attack Iran. Not just the shooting was not carried out from Lebanon. Another component of the equation is the strengthening of Hezbollah's political power in Lebanon in the last elections and the money resources on the Lebanese coast. The transformation of Hezbollah into a leading political force in Lebanon, along with financial resources, will enable the unification of Hezbollah and the Lebanese army, and a significant strengthening of its force buildup. In other words, increasing the threat (leverage) on Israel in the coming years. The sacrifice of Hezbollah at this stage will be a strategic mistake for Iran if it wants to acquire nuclear weapons. Who needs a smoking gun? The documents showed that Iran has nothing in hand. It seems that the documents Netanyahu presented to the world around the Iranian nuclear program were not intended to show that there is a smoking gun to violate the agreement by Iran, but to show the Iranians that Israel and the US know that it has nothing in hand and the game is about to change. The Syrian arena, the nuclear agreement, and if it does not play right, maybe the Iranian people will soon revolt against the regime because of US sanctions. Iran did not have many alternatives in the short term except to align with the Europeans. A war with Israel would endanger the existing regime and therefore it is unlikely that Iran will choose it. A war with Hezbollah will result in a loss of deterrence from Israel, and therefore the probability of this is low. Staying in Syria will result in the loss of international support for the existing agreement. Given the conditions, it is better for Iran to use Europe, Russia, China and Japan to gain time against the White House in the hope that those responsible for the secret nuclear program will be able to surprise before it has to compromise on a new agreement.
http://www.israeldefense.co.il/he/node/34188 translted by google
Ami Rukhas Domba 14/05/2018 Contact author
send to a friend
A + A-size
Share on
Share on
Military parade in Iran (Archive photo: AP)
The recent attacks in Syria attributed to Israel against Iranian targets combined with Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the lack of a serious Iranian response suggest that Iran is apparently far from a nuclear bomb. If Iran had a bomb or was close to the bomb, the cost of Trump's withdrawal from the agreement was an Iranian nuclear bomb - and this is a risk that the US would not tolerate.
What raised the confidence that the Iranians are far from a bomb? Apparently, new documents arrived in the United States and Israel, claiming that the Mossad had obtained an archive of the Iranian nuclear program, but that the analysis of the data from Netanyahu's presentation raises several gaps in the explanation, such as how a state maintains a nuclear program archive outside a security facility in a civilian environment , Without guard, in a dilapidated warehouse, and other signs.
Another possibility is that the information came from North Korea. As a major supplier of Iran's nuclear program, including a joint venture to build a reactor in Syria in 2007, Pyongyang can verify with a high level of confidence the real status of Iran's nuclear program. In this context, the secret negotiations between the United States and Pyongyang, including one visit by Pompau as head of the CIA to Kim over the past few months, could be an explanation: It is not inconceivable that North Korea The Iranian nuclear program on a silver platter.
What did Trump give in return? Apparently reducing US involvement in the South China Sea. Behind the negotiations between North Korea and the United States is China as Kim's patron, and China wants the resources of the South China Sea and also uninterrupted control of the White House, in return for which Trump will get the North Korean and Iranian decommissioning from a nuclear program and missiles.
In Israel and the United States they understood - the king is naked
Whether it is a Mossad operation or documents from North Korea, the documents themselves apparently proved to Israel and the United States that there is no bomb in Iran, and that it is not close to one either.In the past, Iran's nuclear program was stuck at least three times with technical problems related to research and development. The new material obtained at the beginning of 2018 can explain Trump's departure from the agreement - the cost of the mistake is that such a departure would not lead to a nuclear threat from Iran, and Trump also understands something else. And that 's exactly what he' s aiming at.
For its part, Israel understood that if Iran has nothing in hand, and Trump leaves the agreement, Iran will act to achieve two goals - to create quiet time to reach the bomb and to preserve Hezbollah's deterrence against Israel in order to prevent an attack on Iran. In order to create quiet, Iran must wedge a wedge between the United States and those who want to preserve the existing agreement that gives it peace, and in order to make a wedge it must play the game, among other things, temporarily relinquish its activity in Syria.
Trump's and Israel's claims against Iran, in addition to developing a nuclear program, include resistance to missile development and support for terrorism in the Middle East. Similar claims were heard from European leaders following Trump's announcement. In other words, if Iran wants to gain time to develop a bomb by means of political manipulations in the international arena, it must follow the lines of Europe. Stop developing missiles and reduce signatures in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Little Red Riding Hood for the Iranians in Syria
In Jerusalem, they exploited this insight and decided to make Iran a Red Riding Hood in Syria. The understanding was that Iran would not respond in order not to move the Europeans to Trump's side. Israel then began to market to the world that the Iranian threat in Syria is critical and justifies a heightened alert in Israel and a preemptive strike. The IDF played the game, heightened alertness in the north as if it were waiting for an Iranian response, and the real aim was to provide a safety net for a series of planned attacks in Syria on Iranian targets.
The attack from Syria last week was also part of a game whose end is known. According to the IDF Spokesperson's Office, Iran's response included Grad rockets and Fajr-5 missiles, known and not new in the arena. The attack also involved an Iranian multi-barrel rocket launcher, according to the IDF, which also exists in Syria at least since 2015. In the absence of a new weapon, the attack served as an excuse for the IDF to launch another wave of attacks against Iranian targets in Syria. Fell into the trash the IDF had laid for them. Raising the alert in northern Israel was publicized a few days earlier, and the Iranians decided to fire at Israel.
Iran's 'Catch-22'
Exposing the fact that Iran has no nuclear capability and is not close to it, however, has pulled out all the Iranian cover that provided it with ambiguity on this issue. As long as you do not know exactly the nuclear status of a country, the cost of the mistake is too great, and you are careful to take every step in front of it. When you know that it has nothing in your hand, your confidence increases, because the cost of the mistake is very small. This can explain the Israeli boldness in recent weeks in Syria and the American boldness to break the dishes. A daring that did not exist with respect to Iran during the first year of Trump's rule.
Iran, for its part, entered a trap. Her desire for a bomb and exposing the truth about her nuclear program requires her to make concessions in the light of the US move: If she has a nuclear bomb or something close to it, she should have pulled it out now and reached the negotiating table that won the upper hand. As North Korea did. She did not.
Instead, Iran must follow the demands of the United States and Europe (without nuclear weapons, missiles and terrorism), which will allow it to wedge a wedge between the US and Europe and give it time to accelerate its secret nuclear program, including finding a partner to help bridge the gaps. Technologists in the program instead of North Korea.
This is not a simple operational mission for Iran. The intelligence services of Israel and the United States sit there
On the tail, the US has renewed the sanctions, and North Korea has closed the door because of negotiations with the US This situation is pushing Iran toward China, Russia or Pakistan, countries that can help it reach the core, even if it happens. It would take a long time to demand that Iran reduce its activity in the aforementioned routes, meaning that Iran should reduce its signature in Syria and spur the Israeli attacks in Yemen in the face of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, at least temporarily until it achieves significant progress on the nuclear axis or reaches a new agreement with the United States, B. At the same time, Iran can not sacrifice Hezbollah on the altar of revenge in Israel. The organization in Lebanon is a deterrent to Israel in order not to attack Iran. Not just the shooting was not carried out from Lebanon. Another component of the equation is the strengthening of Hezbollah's political power in Lebanon in the last elections and the money resources on the Lebanese coast. The transformation of Hezbollah into a leading political force in Lebanon, along with financial resources, will enable the unification of Hezbollah and the Lebanese army, and a significant strengthening of its force buildup. In other words, increasing the threat (leverage) on Israel in the coming years. The sacrifice of Hezbollah at this stage will be a strategic mistake for Iran if it wants to acquire nuclear weapons. Who needs a smoking gun? The documents showed that Iran has nothing in hand. It seems that the documents Netanyahu presented to the world around the Iranian nuclear program were not intended to show that there is a smoking gun to violate the agreement by Iran, but to show the Iranians that Israel and the US know that it has nothing in hand and the game is about to change. The Syrian arena, the nuclear agreement, and if it does not play right, maybe the Iranian people will soon revolt against the regime because of US sanctions. Iran did not have many alternatives in the short term except to align with the Europeans. A war with Israel would endanger the existing regime and therefore it is unlikely that Iran will choose it. A war with Hezbollah will result in a loss of deterrence from Israel, and therefore the probability of this is low. Staying in Syria will result in the loss of international support for the existing agreement. Given the conditions, it is better for Iran to use Europe, Russia, China and Japan to gain time against the White House in the hope that those responsible for the secret nuclear program will be able to surprise before it has to compromise on a new agreement.
http://www.israeldefense.co.il/he/node/34188 translted by google
