All-Green
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I think Iran knows better than most how to interact with Afghans.
Afghanistan is simply put a very complicated country.
Afghan Taliban who were once not liked by the non pashtun tribes may slowly become popular with all Afghans if US does not manage to appeal to the masses, something very much likely with Karzai at the top.
When an Afghan will be killed by US, locals will all respect him for fighting foreign invaders and will not look at what tribe or party he belonged to or what his past was.
The more anti-US forces are made to bleed by the US (and allies) the more other Afghans will become sympathetic to anti US cause.
The thing is that Afghans are fiercely proud and independent for most part but on the other hand their land is destitute and utterly ruined for most part.
From this absolute poverty, desperation and strong sense of pride a very complex scenario arises.
They have been used/allied by superpowers and mostly turned against both.
The more time US forces are in Afghanistan the more this pride will come to play and there shall be growing unrest against US, unless of course the US manages somehow to please all parties including Afghan Taliban...now that is something easier said than done, especially since the US Gov will not want to be seen as kneeling to those Taliban it called terrorists and branded the same as Al Qaeda in front of its citizens.
In declaring all Taliban as its enemies the US has prolonged the War on Al Qaeda and extended its stay in Afghanistan...
Now combine this with the excellent strategic positioning of US military and intelligence assets near massive energy resources and the potential energy export routes...
The game plan is obvious...for this to work flawlessly the US needs a pro US Afghan government...and has tried to portray itself as a liberator of Afghans from Taliban...in NA and other anti Taliban groups the US has garnered some support as well....but...
In choosing Karzai US has done something similar to What USSR was doing when it backed Babrak Kamal...it will not work since Karzai is not respected by Afghans and in being a puppet he is even more ridiculed by the Afghans.
Militarily US can hold its own against any force but i see a very weak position politically for Karzai and that will be the downfall of current setup...
Having said this, i think US may come up with another setup and include some Pashtun elements in its next plan...Iran will also most likely be approached and well probed by US to see what role Iran can play without harming US interests.
Iran knows better than to meddle openly in Afghanistan and will not risk in upsetting any major ethnic group or party which can be its neighboring government in future.
Iran shall not risk being seen as a foreign country which is overtly meddling in the internal affairs of Afghans.
With Iran's strategic position all it needs to do is to sit back and enjoy the show and if US comes to talk, talk on Iranian terms.
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