First of all, I have tried to stay silent on this topic per Kaiser Tufail's general advice to not share analysis. But now, the forum is becoming completely full of misleading information by
@MastanKhan who is cashing in on the opportunity to spread misinformation. Since the admins seem to be giving free reign to him, I have to counter this garbage with solid evidence.
In the immediate aftermath of the incident, a video was uploaded from which I took the following screen grab:
View attachment 546969
Let us establish a few facts. This is around the LoC on 27th of Feb, when the direction of sunrise is NE. The first aircraft and its contrail are illuminated directly by the sun, which means the camera is pointing due north. The contrail on the first aircraft matches that of F-16, whereas the extremely compact second contrail hints at a high speed (perhaps Mach 4) highly maneuverable missile, although I could be completely wrong here.
This is what I remember from the video. The compact contrail suddenly takes a high-G turn to the left, and explodes. The high-G turn seems to be similar to a super-maneuverability turn using TVC by the Flanker. The first aircraft then gains altitude and heads due north - a signature move of F-16 pilots.
The engagement, the position of the aircraft, all are hinting towards a merge after a BVR engagement. Let us recall that once an initial BVR exchange has taken place, both aircrafts will engage in a turning fight, trying to stay perpendicular to the enemy radar, while closing the distance. The picture seems to show a distance of 10-20 km between the aircrafts.
I could be very wrong about the second contrail being a missile, but I fail to find the example of a fighter that produces such a compact trail for such a distance.
But the main point is exactly that WVR is not dead. Not by a long shot. People disseminating misinformation on the forum should be taken to task for crass dishonesty.
@gambit I would appreciate if you could correct any glaring mistakes I have made in this analysis.
