Rafale sales to Taiwan?

[Quwa]

As per the existing structure, can only recon that for decade or so, F-16, FC-20 (if inducted) and JF-17 will fly pakistani sky... Rafle and EF2000 not to be inducted if India selects similar MRCA is unlikely as per the modernization attitude of Airforce in this decade..

Official plan is to induct all FC-20, F-16 and JF-17 by 2015...basically there are to be no F-7P/PGs, Mirage III/V, A-5s, etc, in service by 2015. I don't think the upgraded J-10/FC-20 is something to be undermined...it'll be a 4.5 generation aircraft, it's radar, ECM/EW and avionics will be known only to China and Pakistan - a true wild card - and is to serve a long time alongside JXX.

Goal should be to have a 5th generation fighter entering service from 2020 - around the time other contemporaries would be entering service; PAK-FA, KFX, ATD-X, etc. It is something major forces are doing...we can more or less expect the same from PAF - regarding future issues at least.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

Official plan is to induct all FC-20, F-16 and JF-17 by 2015...basically there are to be no F-7P/PGs, Mirage III/V, A-5s, etc, in service by 2015. I don't think the upgraded J-10/FC-20 is something to be undermined...it'll be a 4.5 generation aircraft, it's radar, ECM/EW and avionics will be known only to China and Pakistan - a true wild card - and is to serve a long time alongside JXX.

Goal should be to have a 5th generation fighter entering service from 2020 - around the time other contemporaries would be entering service; PAK-FA, KFX, ATD-X, etc. It is something major forces are doing...we can more or less expect the same from PAF - regarding future issues at least.

Yes, but J10 without Aesa and all, donot compare its capabilities with EF2000 and Rafle... May be at par with Blk 40 F-16 but Rafle or EF2000, i think at current configurations ...No.
In future also i donot agree that chinese technological advancement in AESA is near to even Europeans at this moment... Rafle and EF2000 are the only options which PAF has in response to MRCA deal and reluctancy of PAF to induct J10 without being on par with MRCA solutions available to India is evidence enough.

Goal of 5th gen aircraft is atleast 12 years away from even China if it is production level we are talking about.

 

[Quwa]

Yes, but J10 without Aesa and all, donot compare its capabilities with EF2000 and Rafle... May be at par with Blk 40 F-16 but Rafle or EF2000, i think at current configurations ...No.
In future also i donot agree that chinese technological advancement in AESA is near to even Europeans at this moment... Rafle and EF2000 are the only options which PAF has in response to MRCA deal and reluctancy of PAF to induct J10 without being on par with MRCA solutions available to India is evidence enough.

The 'upgraded J-10' is likely to incorporate technology that will be applied on JXX/5th generation fighters. The reasoning is that China's rising threats include the latest F-15 variants, Super Hornets, potentially EF/Rafale - and for PAF an MRCA in the above league. The 'upgraded J-10' is expected to have fairly extensive airframe upgrades/modifications - essentially to make it at least as stealthy as EF/Rafale. It is set to use the WS-10A engine, built-in IRST, AESA radar...and even rumours of internal payload.

Note; no image of the 'upgraded J-10' has been released - but the aircraft is presently being tested by CAC. The reason why PAF probably did not order the "FC-20" yet is because the aircraft that likely is FC-20 - i.e. the 'upgraded J-10' is still in testing. At this point there is no point in blanking down the Chinese...they have been researching and working on this stuff since the early 1990s and are on very rapid advancement. For example their AESA technology is being used on AEW&C/AWACS...next stop is for their ships and fighters.

If you still don't get it...consider the 'upgraded J-10' as the "Super-10" that Janes reported a couple years back, except the 'upgraded J-10' is still single engine.

Goal of 5th gen aircraft is atleast 12 years away from even China if it is production level we are talking about.

I'd expect PAF to begin inducting 5th generation aircraft around the 2020 period with mostly everyone else - i.e. Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, Russian & Indian AFs.

A generic twin-engine concept/design (visually similar to F/A-22) that could hold its own against F/A-22 on Pakistani soil/airspace should be the aim. If it exceeds the performance of F-35, then we may see the Turks and Saudis join the project as well. In fact, given the limitations of the export F-35 and the lack of access...I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China pursue an export-oriented stealth fighter.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

The 'upgraded J-10' is expected to have fairly extensive airframe upgrades/modifications - essentially to make it at least as stealthy as EF/Rafale. It is set to use the WS-10A engine, built-in IRST, AESA radar...and even rumours of internal payload.

Note; no image of the 'upgraded J-10' has been released - but the aircraft is presently being tested by CAC. The reason why PAF probably did not order the "FC-20" yet is because the aircraft that likely is FC-20 - i.e. the 'upgraded J-10' is still in testing. At this point there is no point in blanking down the Chinese...they have been researching and working on this stuff since the early 1990s and are on very rapid advancement. For example their AESA technology is being used on AEW&C/AWACS...next stop is for their ships and fighters.

Never meant to say that china has no AESA know how but AESA for Fighter Jets is far from China, maybe 5 years.

I'd expect PAF to begin inducting 5th generation aircraft around the 2020 period with mostly everyone else - i.e. Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, Russian & Indian AFs.

This is what i also think.

A generic twin-engine concept/design (visually similar to F/A-22) that could hold its own against F/A-22 on Pakistani soil/airspace should be the aim. If it exceeds the performance of F-35, then we may see the Turks and Saudis join the project as well. In fact, given the limitations of the export F-35 and the lack of access...I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and China pursue an export-oriented stealth fighter.

Thou pakistan should do what you mention, i would say it is very unrealistic in present world scenario.

 

[ahussains]

Currently, the Raptor is not for sale.

We won't even sell it to our closes allies in the pacific, Japan, Australia and South Korea.

What makes you think we would sell it to Taiwan?

I'd say, asking for the F-35 is already a wild shot.

F 22 will be available only for Israel i was studying on forum that they are negotiating for upto 50 planes after the delivers of 100 a/c of F16I i will post the link when i found it .

 

[ahussains]

i'm keeping my fingers crossed for the rafale

SO FAR IT IS A FAILURE

The problem with the Rafale was the concept, it tried to be a full size air superiority fighter and also be like the Mirage in the light weight category. Add onto it the fact that it is also designed for Carriers. They tried to do to much with one airframe and thus it does not excel at any one thing to well. They could have been real successful if they pushed a good low cost fighter undercutting the F-35. Think Gripen.

This is no troll, just MO. It looks like Rafale will not win any export orders. When you look at the purpose of the aircraft it is clear to me its job is to keep Dassault in business preferably with export orders. After all, the French know they will never fight a competent foe without the US. Would the French fight Libya over Chad or intervene in Algeria? Possibly. Will they fight China? No. Would they fight Iran? Only with US help. In GW1 the Mirage 2000 was held back as an interceptor. If an Iraqi aircraft had made it through US CAP and the Saudis then the French fighter would have been required to fight. This makes the MICA missile rationale much more logical. The French know they don't need a first class fighter/missile combo and they also know many countries would like to save money by having one missile instead of separate WVR and BVR missiles. MICA is obviously geared towards the export market but Rafale is not. It is too expensive for most countries who bought Mirage 3, 5, 50 and F1 and it is not capable enough to beat out the F-15 for conutries that can afford capability. In retrospect it is clear that Rafale is a colossal failure. The French could have scored serious export orders for an upgraded Mirage 2000. The M2000's biggest weakness is the single spool gas guzzling M53. Replace it with a modern twin spool, upgraded avionics and hang some canards on it to make it look cooler and I think you have a winner. Such an aircraft would have won MMRCA already. I think the AdA's biggest error was not buying the M4000 along with M2000. If they had, Rafale would probably have been big enough to beat the F-15 and Typhoon or it would be small enough to export.

 

[Quwa]

Never meant to say that china has no AESA know how but AESA for Fighter Jets is far from China, maybe 5 years.

We'll have to wait and see.

Thou pakistan should do what you mention, i would say it is very unrealistic in present world scenario.

Well I doubt PAF would officially signal a 5th generation fighter this year or even before 2010. On the other hand you do have a Turkey that is on a drive to become a global power, and a Saudi Arabia that wants greater stake in world affairs.

The export F-35 has its limitations and as a NATO fighter, it puts Turkey in a somewhat compromising position - i.e. not necessarily able to extend global influence given that all of W.Europe would know its technical weakenesses. That's why you see Turkey trying to produce as much at home and localize imported products as much as possible. While the export F-35 is good, overall a heavier fighter that exceeds F-35 would suit the Turks better - especially against NATO/E.U. In the end Eastern hardware from China could be considered a true Wild Card...and the Turks are reportedly involved in helping the South Koreans with their KFX.

For Saudi Arabia, the technical situation would be the same as Pakistan. Both air forces would have 4 and 4.5 generation fighters, but likely unable to import 5th generation. The other solution would be to make use of existing expertise - China, Turkey, private West - and jointly finance a project.

Technically they would likely be looking at the most widely-used and generic design...the F/A-22 inspiration from ATD-X, PAK-FA and JXX/J-14. Start the project around 2010-2011; have the aircraft fly by 2015 and have it enter production in 2020. Don't expect them to design from scratch...at this point, chances are SAC/CAC have preliminary designs - and any 5th generation fighter of such a 10-year timeframe would need fairly heavy Chinese cooperation.

 

[Keysersoze]

Mark just as a point of interest. A little more info was released re the Chinese 5th gen fighter. Apparently they have been working on it for at least ten years already.

Saturday, December 8, 2007
China's 5th generation fighter

In the last few weeks, a Chinese general said in public TV the following


徐少将称：据他所知，四代机十年前就已经上马，而且推力比10以上的发动机研制没有问题，最近通过航空航天的最新经验，我国在电子和隐身方面都取得了重大进展。他最后说，歼十四五年内问世。

凤凰卫视"军情观察室"节目透露，中国拒绝与俄罗斯和印度共同研制新一代作战飞机，原因是缺乏技术保密性。

徐光峪表示，中国方面在第四代战机的研制已经进行了多年，目前就一些关键性技术难题已经突破，其中包括大推力比的发动机，甚至推力比已经超过10，另外在隐形技术、电控技术都获得了较大的突破，在将来5到8年的时间里中国自己研制的第四代战机即可成军。

事实上，中国战斗机的研制上目前已经达到了俄罗斯的水平，接近美国研发水平，只是由于实际国情，军事生产不能如同美国产业化，中国自己研制的歼十单发战斗机性能超过俄的米格29，而俄罗斯的双发重型多功能战斗机也都是在苏27基础上改进，中国现在已经掌握了苏27的生产工艺。

所以在拿着大头钱去让俄罗斯研制新型飞机，遏制自己自主研发能力？那只有傻瓜才会做的，如果俄罗斯人真有成意，除非他把其研发技术共享，研制产品技术共享，产品知识产权共享，才有可能与共同研制。

徐光裕将军 解放军防化学院原院长 解放军总参谋部退役军官、中国军控裁军协会理事 北京三略管理科学研究院高级顾问 著书[核战略纵横]国防大学出版社


This got famous because he mentionned that China has been researching on this plane for many years and have made a lot of progress. This project has been on going for over 10 years. This includes on the engine with T/W ratio of over 10. Other than stealth technology, avionics technology have also advanced a lot. He expects that China's 5th generation plane to be in service in 5 to 8 years. It's kind of interesting, because he also mentionned that J-14 will appear in 5 years.

Clearly, China did not participate in the 5th generation project with the Russians because it felt that it could develop it on its own. We had expected for a long time that China would work with the Russians with the 5th generation engine, but it turns out that WS-15 is progressing well enough that they feel an indigenous solution is good enough. If WS-15 is not ready, an upgraded WS-10 could be used first. I know that turbofan has always been a sore point with China. But now, it seems like WS-13 is progressing faster than a lot of people estimated and might even go in production next year.

As mentionned in the past, it seems that CAC is getting much of the design work for the 5th generation project. Now, it's encouraging, because a lot of technologies on 5th generation could be tested on upgraded J-10 first. So, one can expect the so called upgraded J-10 to be holding down the fort until the 5th generation plane gets developed. It's interesting, 2015 has often been noted as the date that this plane will come out. However, another really important project in the form of anti-air UCAV is probably just as important, but is less publicized. From Anjian's appearance in recent air shows, it's quite clear that China is working on anti-air UCAV a lot earlier than Western air forces. There are some obvious advantage and disadvantages to UCAVs in this role. Whether China can make a cost effective and useful UCAV is a huge question. There is no doubt that such a weapon could be huge in a possible conflict with Taiwan.

Recently, We've seen the Indians sign the 5th generation contract with the Russians. Clearly, China would've participated in the project somehow, if they felt their own product would come out quite a bit after the Russians. Some may say that China is doing because they want to protect their own industry. The reality is that China is so desperate for something to counter F-22/35, that waiting an extra 5 years for a 5th generation jet is a price that I don't think they are willing to pay. So, the Chinese jet will probably come out at around the same time as the Russian one. One thing is for sure. China will not have any kind of money problem.

China Air and Naval Power: China's 5th generation fighter

 

[Quwa]

The above source also talks about the 'upgraded J-10'.

The stealthy J-10 supposedly has just test flied recently. It will have much better avionics, lower RCS and eventually use better engine than the current J-10. It will definitely be holding down the fort until twin-engined J-10 comes along. I suspect that due to its cheaper cost as a single engined fighter, it will be procured even when J-XX and twin-engined "J-10" are established in the force.

As mentionned in the past, it seems that CAC is getting much of the design work for the 5th generation project. Now, it's encouraging, because a lot of technologies on 5th generation could be tested on upgraded J-10 first. So, one can expect the so called upgraded J-10 to be holding down the fort until the 5th generation plane gets developed

At this point, I'd expect PAF to begin feasibility studies of a 5th generation fighter in the league of the Sukhoi T-50 & J-14...knowing PAF, don't discount them. Even without Turk-Saudi cooperation, at least expect significant Chinese input in any PAF 5th generation project. We're either looking at a scaled-down J-14, or a different design that is not as good as J-14 - but capable of taking care of PAF requirements with ease.

Given that the PAF would want all JF-17s by 2015...we can guess that JF-17 production - for the most part - would stop from 2015. Then PAC would gear/retool for the 5th generation fighter, and from 2020 PAC would begin production. I think 10-12 years from execution to production sounds reasonable...just depends when PAF will start it.