PTI Dharna Politics and Possible Scenarios

[Jazzbot]

No one invited me to the party?

Anyways, I've lots of long posts to catch up in this thread. Will post my reply after going through them..

@Chak Bamu I'm gonna come hard about your post regarding Ten truths about electoral rigging. Just wait..

 

[Jazzbot]

I do believe Imran Khan had been angling for threat of mass-scale agitation for quite some time. He has created a pretext in hearts and minds of die-hard PTI supporters, if not in actual fact. Perception rules, not facts. I've seen a number of PTI supporters and they are just as much in thrall of Imran Khan as Jiyalas of yore were in thrall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. They are not open to logic. They want change and they are not ready to listen to anything.

I have read some very cogent and compelling arguments on a poll-thread started by @Aether ( Do you support Azadi March? ) and I am so glad that people are showing a great deal of maturity in their posts there in how they assess political situation and ramification of Imran Khan's agitation-based approach.

I do suspect Imran Khan can not be all that dumb, that he does not understand the logical result and the implications thereof.

If he sticks with this approach, then it means that he is convinced that the Federal government would not let him work in KPK with peace. It seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Read on to find out why:

I see three scenarios:

1. PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is chaos and bloodshed. Army moves in and the country is put under Martial law. The following could happen:
A) Army announces elections after 3 months. Imran Khan has no guarantee that he would improve his chances, especially when people feel robbed and PML-N has a victim card. No political party would now go near PTI.
B) Army scraps constitution and forces Supreme Court to give a 2 year dispensation. PTI still comes out a looser at the end.
C) Army suspends constitution and Gen Raheel goes the Musharraf route of assuming presidentship and allows delayed and rigged elections. PTI still looses.

2. PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is that government beats the crap out of PTI workers and PAT workers. Army watches coolly and does nothing. The following could then happen:
A) PML-N goes on front foot. The governor dissolves the KPK cabinet and invites other parties to form a government. PTI is left to cry in a corner and PML-N, JUI-F, JI, & Aftab Sherpao form a government. Federal government supports this set up to complete a big infrastructure project or two in KPK. Coupled with better Law & Order situation and curbing of militancy, PML-N gets to claim an improvement in KPK. PTI would come out the looser.
B) Federal government does nothing. PTI goes back to governing KPK and has to keep looking over its shoulder to see if it is secure. Coalition partners would be chaffing at PTI's blind plunge into agitational politics and mull options. Federal government gives a hard time to KPK government and at the end of its term in 2018, PTI-led KPK government has an efficiency argument, but no particular visual mark of development. PTI comes out the looser.
C) PTI dissolves provincial assembly and forces a re-election. KPK voters are known to be fickle and they would likely punish PTI for having created a needless hassle. PTI would come out the looser. In case PTI resigns from Federal government, they would loose seats for sure. More loss for PTI.

3. Qadri does what he does best and creates chaos. Imran Khan shrewdly makes a deal with beleaguered Federal Government while Army acts as a guarantor. PML-N introduces a bill in Parliament to improve the electoral process via reforms. The following can happen:
A) PML-N claims that they are doing what they planned to do all along. PTI makes some gains. IK declares moral victory. Electorate makes its own guesses.
B) PML-N drags the process and after a year, PTI finds itself in the same spot. With a bit more than 2 years to next elections, nobody would care to give him the support he feels that he needs on the streets. PTI has to go back to governing KPK as in 2B (above).

Based on my analysis above, the best PTI can hope for is 3A. While most likely result would be 3B. Anything else would be loss for PTI and Imran Khan.

In any case Imran Khan can not and will not become PM before 2018. If he has any smarts, he would make efforts to organize PTI into an established party that would be his bright legacy. If he does so, PTI would do more for Pakistan in the long-term than Imran Khan could do as PM in a single term.

@Aether , @Oscar , @Aeronaut , @AgNoStiC MuSliM , @Leader , @xyxmt , @ice_man , @Spring Onion , @Manticore , @blain2 , @Joe Shearer , @cb4 , @JonAsad , @Fracker , @faisal6309 , @TheFlyingPretzel , @Peaceful Civilian

Nice, after going through your post, I can say one thing for sure, you are good at making PTI loose in whatever they might do..

What I think is, nothing you've said above is gonna happen. Toppling govt or spread anarchy isn't what PTI or IK is looking for, if this is what they wanted then they would have done that already by now.

The only thing PTI wants is election reforms so the next elections will be rigging free to maximum extent possible. Since PML-N govt is dragging the issue and is looking to just pass time somehow, take the matter close to 2016 - 17 and then simply refuse these reforms due to lack of time available. They are simply not interested.

Now what PTI is doing, is applying continuous pressure by doing protests every month in different cities in Punjab. Trust me, these Jalsas and protests do give sleepless nights to PML-N top brass. PTI is not only putting pressure at govt to do election reforms by doing these Jalsas, but they are gaining more and more public support in PML-N's strong holds. PTI knows they have failed to beat PML-N in Punjab hence they need more active interactions with Punjab Public, and these Jalsas are best option available to PTI.

Nothing fancy is gonna happen at 14th Aug march. If you see IK's statements before mid July, he never said he is gonna topple govt, or wants to resign from assemblies. He only insisted on opening 4 constituencies. These current statements are just to build up the hype and tempo of coming march. The best PTI will do is to sit in till those 4 constituencies are not opened and election reforms are not announced. They won't go for toppling the govt because they know the outcomes.

In short, here is what I am seeing:

If settlement is reached:

1) IK's recent hard statements will help make inroads in PML-N's hard stance against PTI's demands about rigging and election reforms.

2) Govt will accept the demand to open up 4 constituencies and do election reforms.

3) PTI will convert the sit in into a Jalsa and govt won't use force against PTI


If no settlement is reached:

1) PTI will do a massive long march towards Islamabad.

2) IK will present proofs about election rigging, against Ex- CJ and ROs

3) PTI will do a sit in until the demands of 4 constituencies and election reforms are met

4) PTI will remain peaceful.


Now, if Govt will open force against PTI protesters at D-Chawk, it will backfire and PTI will gain benefit from this. So I don't think govt will resort to this option, especially after what happened in Model Town Lahore.

 

[Chak Bamu]

No one invited me to the party?

Anyways, I've lots of long posts to catch up in this thread. Will post my reply after going through them..

@Chak Bamu I'm gonna come hard about your post regarding Ten truths about electoral rigging. Just wait..

Its not my article. Bring on the criticism. It would be OT, but what else to do? Nobody has engaged it anywhere else. I shared it elsewhere, but put it here only because Leader kept yapping about his questions which were not only OT but an attempt to evade and obfuscate.

I would much rather have you address the likely scenarios that I have sketched.

 

[xyxmt]

Nice, after going through your post, I can say one thing for sure, you are good at making PTI loose in whatever they might do..

What I think is, nothing you've said above is gonna happen. Toppling govt or spread anarchy isn't what PTI or IK is looking for, if this is what they wanted then they would have done that already by now.

This innocent teenager climb the roof of a 50 story building wearing a superman cape, he jumps of the building intending to land on his two feet safely....can you guess the end result?

 

[Jazzbot]

This innocent teenager climb the roof of a 50 story building wearing a superman cape, he jumps of the building intending to land on his two feet safely....can you guess the end result?

Welcome to Pakistani Politics..

 

[Chak Bamu]

Nice, after going through your post, I can say one thing for sure, you are good at making PTI loose in whatever they might do..

What I think is, nothing you've said above is gonna happen. Toppling govt or spread anarchy isn't what PTI or IK is looking for, if this is what they wanted then they would have done that already by now.

The only thing PTI wants is election reforms so the next elections will be rigging free to maximum extent possible. Since PML-N govt is dragging the issue and is looking to just pass time somehow, take the matter close to 2016 - 17 and then simply refuse these reforms due to lack of time available. They are simply not interested.

Now what PTI is doing, is applying continuous pressure by doing protests every month in different cities in Punjab. Trust me, these Jalsas and protests do give sleepless nights to PML-N top brass. PTI is not only putting pressure at govt to do election reforms by doing these Jalsas, but they are gaining more and more public support in PML-N's strong holds. PTI knows they have failed to beat PML-N in Punjab hence they need more active interactions with Punjab Public, and these Jalsas are best option available to PTI.

Nothing fancy is gonna happen at 14th Aug march. If you see IK's statements before mid July, he never said he is gonna topple govt, or wants to resign from assemblies. He only insisted on opening 4 constituencies. These current statements are just to build up the hype and tempo of coming march. The best PTI will do is to sit in till those 4 constituencies are not opened and election reforms are not announced. They won't go for toppling the govt because they know the outcomes.

In short, here is what I am seeing:

If settlement is reached:

1) IK's recent hard statements will help make inroads in PML-N's hard stance against PTI's demands about rigging and election reforms.

2) Govt will accept the demand to open up 4 constituencies and do election reforms.

3) PTI will convert the sit in into a Jalsa and govt won't use force against PTI


If no settlement is reached:

1) PTI will do a massive long march towards Islamabad.

2) IK will present proofs about election rigging, against Ex- CJ and ROs

3) PTI will do a sit in until the demands of 4 constituencies and election reforms are met

4) PTI will remain peaceful.


Now, if Govt will open force against PTI protesters at D-Chawk, it will backfire and PTI will gain benefit from this. So I don't think govt will resort to this option, especially after what happened in Model Town Lahore.

Thank you for a very good post. I wanted to ensure that I engage at least one PTI supporter. If I ever need to do so again, I will make sure that it is you.

Both PML-N and PTI are hardening their stances as of now. Let us see what will happen til 12 August.

BTW, just now NS has said that he hopes that KPK's government completes its term. This is not only a PR statement but also a veiled threat delivered with sugar coating.

I do suspect that PML-N has been using its indirect influence to delay those 4 constituencies. I have no proof obviously, but knowing PML-N, this is very likely.

If we do get reforms and electronic voting machines, it would be a major moral victory for PTI. I just do not want them to focus on agitation and waste time in KPK. They'd better have something to show, so that they can perform better next time.

I wish to re-iterate that if PTI's agitation leads to unconstitutional steps, then that would be a major blow for everyone. PTI would suffer disproportionately. Hope that does not happen.

 

[Jazzbot]

I wish to re-iterate that if PTI's agitation leads to unconstitutional steps, then that would be a major blow for everyone. PTI would suffer disproportionately. Hope that does not happen.

In that case, I won't support PTI.

1. Here is answer to one of your questions about rigging and government response:
Ten truths about electoral rigging
By Zahid F. Ebrahim
Published: August 4, 2014



The writer is an advocate of the Supreme Court and can be reached on Twitter @zfebrahim

The PTI and PML-N are unable to resolve their political differences. Therefore on August 14, Islamabad is bracing for a clash, which will test Pakistan’s democracy. Imran Khan, who will lead the Azadi march from Lahore to Islamabad, calls it a “decisive battle”. The tempo for the long march has been built on a series of rallies in Punjab where the PTI has repeatedly hammered home its case against electoral rigging. These arguments have mostly been taken at face value. Let’s see how they fare in the light of facts put together by FAFEN, an independent election monitoring NGO.

1) Election tribunals have failed to decide cases — Around 410 election petitions were filed by losing candidates before the 14 election tribunals established across the country. As of last month, 292 petitions, i.e., 73 per cent of all cases, have already been decided by election tribunals. This is unprecedented when compared with the disposal rate of election tribunals in previous elections.

2) Judges of election tribunals were appointed under a faulty process by a biased Election Commission of Pakistan — In previous elections, high court judges were burdened with the responsibility to decide petitions after completing their usual day’s work. Now, election tribunals are manned by retired judges, whose only work is to decide election cases. The ECP did not appoint these judges. Each of the election tribunal judges were proposed by the respective chief justices of the provincial high courts.

3) Election tribunals are purposely going slow — It is correct that election tribunals were not able to meet the 120-day deadline to decide cases. One reason for the delay is the attitude of many losing candidates. Take for example the case of petition number 344 of 2013, Usman Dar vs Khawaja Asif. In its decision, the tribunal wrote: “The way the petitioner avoided to enter the witness box and disregarded the directions of this tribunal on the pretext of business tour abroad, provides a basis to infer that he was/is no more interested in the matter. Costs of adjournments to the tune of Rs30,000/- have not been paid by the petitioner till date. It appears that after filing the election petition, the petitioner lost interest in the election dispute and then attempted to prolong the trial … the petitioner failed to prove the allegations … (and) the election petition is found to be without any merit and is accordingly dismissed … .”

4) If election tribunals decided the PTI’s cases, the PML-N government would collapse — The PTI candidates filed a total of 58 petitions challenging National and provincial assembly elections in various constituencies. Of these, 39 petitions, i.e., 70 per cent have already been decided by the election tribunals. Unfortunately for the PTI, none of the 39 cases were successful. Now, only 19 PTI petitions remain to be decided. Even if each of these is decided in the PTI’s favour, it will not dent the overall election result.

5) Election tribunals are favouring the PML-N — Thus far, 10 elected parliamentarians of the PML-N have been unseated by the election tribunals. This is the highest number of decisions against any political party. Judgments in only two petitions have gone against PTI candidates. Independent candidates are the biggest winners thus far with eight cases in their favour, followed by the PPP at six.

6) If the government has nothing to hide, then why is it refusing to open the cases of four seats demanded by the PTI — The election results on the four National Assembly seats, i.e., NA-110, NA-122, NA-125 and NA-154 have already been opened and are subjects of judicial inquiry by the election tribunals, which are the only forum for opening disputed results of any election. The government has no role to play here.

7) Unprecedented rigging on four seats — NA-110 was one of the four seats cited for election rigging. According to FAFEN, the number of electoral violations in NA-110 is zero. Compare this with NA-1, where Imran Khan won the election. The electoral violations here are listed as 58 by FAFEN. The point is not that the NA-1 result was manipulated simply because FAFEN listed these violations. The point is that there were approximately 90,000 polling stations across the country. Electoral law violations in some of these, deplorable as they may be, do not make these a rigged parliament.

8) The PML-N rigged elections to defeat the PTI’s Jahangir Tareen — NA-154 is another one of the four seats. Here, the PML-N is blamed for stealing Tareen’s victory. But it is interesting to note that the PML-N candidate here also lost the election. The winner was an independent candidate, Mohammad Siddik Baloch. If the PML-N wanted to rig this seat, why would its candidate come a distant third?

9) Even the PPP supports the demand to reopen result of four constituencies — The PPP is happy that the PTI is focusing attention solely on Punjab. The PPP lost a large number of safe seats in Punjab. Although this has happened before, this time, the loss threatens its very existence in Punjab. In the famous four constituencies, the PPP received an abysmal one per cent, 1.6 per cent, 2.9 per cent and five per cent of total votes cast and its candidates lost even their security deposits. Therefore, how can the PPP resist the opportunity to help de-legitimise the election results in these constituencies?

10) The PTI exhausted all forums provided by law before coming on the streets — The Representation of Peoples Act provides that the forum to contest election results is the election tribunals. Around 73 per cent of all cases have already been decided by them. Anyone aggrieved by their decisions can file an appeal in the Supreme Court as mandated by law. Rule of law is not just an empty slogan to be raised in public rallies and television talk shows. It is the foundation which we must abide by if we are to build a modern and stable Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 4th, 2014.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Once you answer this, we can take things forward from there. Be a man and acknowledge facts and logic instead of raising muck and calling people names.

@hasnain0099 , forgot to invite you to this thread. Please share your views. @W.11 you too. Also @farhan_9909

Here's my response to this one sided analysis on election rigging: Rebuttal to Zahid Ibrahim's 10 Myths about Elections

 

[farhan_9909]

My view:

Azadi March even remotely has no chance of success(Considering that the prime aim is to dissolved the Govt) and rather will prove disastarous for the economy.This Govt way too stronger than PPP and i don't see any chance of mid-term election

In Long run we are already warned by moody and other internatonal economics rating agency even after being given stable outlook for long 5-6years(2008-09).

As a citizen of KPK,I am more than happy from PTI Govt and i still believe that i made a right choice voting for PTI and i still maintain that i will vote for PTI in 2018 but i am not in favour of creating political tensions such as this azadi march.

So I am in favour of PTI but not in favour of this march as this will create unnecessary problems for common Pakistanis(Such as the performance of KSE today)

 

[Jazzbot]

My view:

Azadi March even remotely has no chance of success(Considering that the prime aim is to dissolved the Govt) and rather will prove disastarous for the economy.This Govt way too stronger than PPP and i don't see any chance of mid-term election

In Long run we are already warned by moody and other internatonal economics rating agency even after being given stable outlook for long 5-6years(2008-09).

As a citizen of KPK,I am more than happy from PTI Govt and i still believe that i made a right choice voting for PTI and i still maintain that i will vote for PTI in 2018 but i am not in favour of creating political tensions such as this azadi march.

So I am in favour of PTI but not in favour of this march as this will create unnecessary problems for common Pakistanis(Such as the performance of KSE today)

So far the prime aim of Azadi March is to get the 4 constituencies opened immediately and have election reforms started immediately. Current statements of IK are just to create pressure and hype ahead of Azadi March to keep govt at bay.

They best PTI will do is call for mid term elections, but I don't see that happening anything soon.

They key to all this is gonna happen in next few days. If PTI decides to resign from National Assembly, then it means (sadly) PTI has decided to go all out against govt for final blow. If PTI doesn't resign, then it means, what I've said above is true..

Lets hope for the best. Personally I want, rigging caught with proof, criminals brought to Justice, election reforms implemented, and KP govt to complete its 5 years term.

 

[Chak Bamu]

In the backdrop of my first post and as a reminder of the larger theme of Army's role in politics, here is an article by Babar Sattar. I am glad to note that his views are supportive of my analysis and predictions:

Return of the gamekeeper
By Babar Sattar
Published a day ago

The writer is a lawyer.
In the run-up to Aug 14 what is happening and why it is happening is as clear as why it ought not to be happening. Ayaz Amir is on the mark that the soft coup has already succeeded and khakis now have Nawaz Sharif on a tight leash for which the government itself deserves all the credit. Notwithstanding that civil-military imbalance is the bane of constitutionalism and democracy, one must give the khakis their due: with their unflinching focus on defining and controlling the rules, they are simply better at this game.

The khakis have been able to dominate our polity because they are the only ones in our polity able to distinguish between individual and institution and never allow the interests of the former to trump those of the latter.

Nawaz Sharif has proven himself incapable of such distinction. The Sharif camp argues that it is on one page with the khakis. The crucial flaw here might be mistaking warm personal relations between the prime minister and the army chief for a relationship of mutual trust and respect between the civilian and military parts of the state. Can personal rapport between the two Sharifs override the military’s institutional interests?

The problem with the politics of survival is that it sounds the death knell of governance and reform.
Sharif has traditionally been an embodiment of the status quo. Whatever illusions he might have conjured up about reforming institutional structures or his own style of governance during his years in exile now seem to have vanished.

Calling the military in aid of civil power in Islamabad under Article 245 ahead of Imran Khan’s march on Islamabad is a clear message that the rest of his term in office will be about nothing but survival. The problem with the politics of survival is that it sounds the death knell of governance and reform.

What will become of Sharif’s proactive India policy? Who will determine Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan in wake of US troop withdrawal? What about the national internal security policy or Nacta or intelligence reform or a new anti-terror force? The distribution of power among various actors has quickly changed over the last few months. Sharif, the most powerful and dominant actor six months back, has now been sized up and boxed.

Have we returned to the ’90s? The judiciary (reeling from loss of credibility due to former chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s controversial tenure and Khan’s broadside against its alleged partisanship) is no longer being perceived as a neutral arbiter.

With Geo neutered and its competitors enjoying the spoils of war, the media’s ability to shape narratives or act as a check on the abuse of power by the government or the khakis has largely dissipated. Rival political parties are once again at each other’s throats. And the military, as gamekeeper, reigns supreme behind the curtains.

In Pakistan all politics is personal. Whether it is Khan’s march on Islamabad or Sharif invoking Article 245, this battle is for control over Punjab. To say that Khan has been propped up by the khakis might sound derogatory on TV talk shows.

But no one understands Punjab’s proclivity to stay on the right side of power better than Sharif. In the ’90s, Punjab understood that no government was ever removed under Article 258(2b) to be brought right back. Likewise the guessing game today is only this: will the khakis go all the way to support Khan?

Sharif has elected to call the khakis to his aid in Islamabad not because he wishes Khan’s supporters to get into an altercation with the army or because the army might engage in Model Town-style maintenance of order. The invocation of Article 245 is only meant to send the message across Punjab: Sharif has khaki-patronage for now. The march on Islamabad by the PTI could never go anywhere unless the khakis elected to act in aid of the marchers. If the khakis act as arbiters and not as a dislodging force, the deal will be about reform and not re-election.

So why are the khakis saving Sharif? They are not. They are just getting back in control. As Ejaz Haider concluded in his recent analysis of Article 245 in the backdrop of the Islamabad march: “The army will come out as the rose between two thorns.”

The army has finally recovered the social and political space it lost under Musharraf’s unpopular years, which it couldn’t recover under Kayani. Here is a wartime army protecting Pakistan against the existential threat of terror, without political ownership, but with massive public support.

The role of the judiciary and the media as popular countervailing forces stands diminished. With the crash entry of the PTI in the political space, the compact of not seeking mid-term removal of governments (a lesson the PML-N and PPP learnt from their destructive politics of the ’90s) is dead in the water. And while playing favourites in Punjab had become harder even in the ’90s (with the PPP’s declining support base), the PTI’s emergence as a credible and impatient rival to PML-N has now created viable political options for the kingmaker.

It appears that Sharif’s politics will continue to be defined by his fear of Khan, as manifested in his equivocal policy on terror and foot-dragging on electoral reforms.

Faced with Khan on one side and the khakis on the other, Sharif seems to have concluded that sleeping with the enemy to acquire power might be bad, but not so much to preserve it. Khan’s politics now seems equally personal, whether reflected in his singular focus on Sharif’s ouster or his striking belief that Iftikhar Chaudhry single-handedly stole the 2013 election from him.

Politics is dirty business. But it is about to get dirtier. The Islamabad march is round one. It won’t be a knockout round. It will leave both antagonists beat up and the gamekeeper looking strong. It is unlikely to end in a settlement, leaving room for further rounds and the continuing need for a gamekeeper. Lost in this infighting and politicking will be the agenda of institutional, governance or policy reform, as well as the demand for constitutionalism, democracy and civil-military balance.

The writer is a lawyer.

 

[Amaa'n]

In the backdrop of my first post and as a reminder of the larger theme of Army's role in politics, here is an article by Babar Sattar. I am glad to note that his views are supportive of my analysis and predictions:

Return of the gamekeeper
By Babar Sattar
Published a day ago

The writer is a lawyer.
In the run-up to Aug 14 what is happening and why it is happening is as clear as why it ought not to be happening. Ayaz Amir is on the mark that the soft coup has already succeeded and khakis now have Nawaz Sharif on a tight leash for which the government itself deserves all the credit. Notwithstanding that civil-military imbalance is the bane of constitutionalism and democracy, one must give the khakis their due: with their unflinching focus on defining and controlling the rules, they are simply better at this game.

The khakis have been able to dominate our polity because they are the only ones in our polity able to distinguish between individual and institution and never allow the interests of the former to trump those of the latter.

Nawaz Sharif has proven himself incapable of such distinction. The Sharif camp argues that it is on one page with the khakis. The crucial flaw here might be mistaking warm personal relations between the prime minister and the army chief for a relationship of mutual trust and respect between the civilian and military parts of the state. Can personal rapport between the two Sharifs override the military’s institutional interests?

The problem with the politics of survival is that it sounds the death knell of governance and reform.
Sharif has traditionally been an embodiment of the status quo. Whatever illusions he might have conjured up about reforming institutional structures or his own style of governance during his years in exile now seem to have vanished.

Calling the military in aid of civil power in Islamabad under Article 245 ahead of Imran Khan’s march on Islamabad is a clear message that the rest of his term in office will be about nothing but survival. The problem with the politics of survival is that it sounds the death knell of governance and reform.

What will become of Sharif’s proactive India policy? Who will determine Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan in wake of US troop withdrawal? What about the national internal security policy or Nacta or intelligence reform or a new anti-terror force? The distribution of power among various actors has quickly changed over the last few months. Sharif, the most powerful and dominant actor six months back, has now been sized up and boxed.

Have we returned to the ’90s? The judiciary (reeling from loss of credibility due to former chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s controversial tenure and Khan’s broadside against its alleged partisanship) is no longer being perceived as a neutral arbiter.

With Geo neutered and its competitors enjoying the spoils of war, the media’s ability to shape narratives or act as a check on the abuse of power by the government or the khakis has largely dissipated. Rival political parties are once again at each other’s throats. And the military, as gamekeeper, reigns supreme behind the curtains.

In Pakistan all politics is personal. Whether it is Khan’s march on Islamabad or Sharif invoking Article 245, this battle is for control over Punjab. To say that Khan has been propped up by the khakis might sound derogatory on TV talk shows.

But no one understands Punjab’s proclivity to stay on the right side of power better than Sharif. In the ’90s, Punjab understood that no government was ever removed under Article 258(2b) to be brought right back. Likewise the guessing game today is only this: will the khakis go all the way to support Khan?

Sharif has elected to call the khakis to his aid in Islamabad not because he wishes Khan’s supporters to get into an altercation with the army or because the army might engage in Model Town-style maintenance of order. The invocation of Article 245 is only meant to send the message across Punjab: Sharif has khaki-patronage for now. The march on Islamabad by the PTI could never go anywhere unless the khakis elected to act in aid of the marchers. If the khakis act as arbiters and not as a dislodging force, the deal will be about reform and not re-election.

So why are the khakis saving Sharif? They are not. They are just getting back in control. As Ejaz Haider concluded in his recent analysis of Article 245 in the backdrop of the Islamabad march: “The army will come out as the rose between two thorns.”

The army has finally recovered the social and political space it lost under Musharraf’s unpopular years, which it couldn’t recover under Kayani. Here is a wartime army protecting Pakistan against the existential threat of terror, without political ownership, but with massive public support.

The role of the judiciary and the media as popular countervailing forces stands diminished. With the crash entry of the PTI in the political space, the compact of not seeking mid-term removal of governments (a lesson the PML-N and PPP learnt from their destructive politics of the ’90s) is dead in the water. And while playing favourites in Punjab had become harder even in the ’90s (with the PPP’s declining support base), the PTI’s emergence as a credible and impatient rival to PML-N has now created viable political options for the kingmaker.

It appears that Sharif’s politics will continue to be defined by his fear of Khan, as manifested in his equivocal policy on terror and foot-dragging on electoral reforms.

Faced with Khan on one side and the khakis on the other, Sharif seems to have concluded that sleeping with the enemy to acquire power might be bad, but not so much to preserve it. Khan’s politics now seems equally personal, whether reflected in his singular focus on Sharif’s ouster or his striking belief that Iftikhar Chaudhry single-handedly stole the 2013 election from him.

Politics is dirty business. But it is about to get dirtier. The Islamabad march is round one. It won’t be a knockout round. It will leave both antagonists beat up and the gamekeeper looking strong. It is unlikely to end in a settlement, leaving room for further rounds and the continuing need for a gamekeeper. Lost in this infighting and politicking will be the agenda of institutional, governance or policy reform, as well as the demand for constitutionalism, democracy and civil-military balance.

The writer is a lawyer.

I will quote what Khursheed Shah have said " till today i do not understand what is establishment;we ourselves make the mistakes and then blame the establishment ".....
I will say the time will tell and hustory will judge......
There is an extract from first chapter of "we have not learnt anything from our history" by F. M Asghar Khan.... I am in hospital right now, on e i get home, i will share that, as it seems relevant to the topic-why Military - Political leadership will need to keep a hand in hand for the betterment and development

 

[Amaa'n]

To an extent, i agree with the analysis presented here:
PTI's possible outcomes
HAT were once amorphous demands have turned into ominous threats. And yet, even now, there is little clarity about what Imran Khan`s real goal is: electoral reforms or something more? The confusion extends to the senior leadership of the PTI itself, with some members talking about reforms, others talking about elections and all suggesting that the final demands would be left up to Mr Khan himself. What is clear though is that the PTI is determined to push the government a fair distance and perhaps all the way over the edge too. Troubling as the PML-N`s conduct has been in some instances and while recognising that as the incumbent power, there is greater responsibility resting on the shoulders of the PML-N leadership, the PTI cannot quite escape blame for the growing sense of crisis and perhaps even threats to the system.

The most significant problem from a democratic perspective is not that Mr Khan wants to hold another large rally or that he is arguing that the May 2013 elections were not as free and fair as the best democratic standards demand. The most significant problem is that Mr Khan seems unconcerned about the impact of his agitation on fundamental national political stability and the space his growing threats of street agitation is creating for antidemocratic forces in the country. It is really a question of degree.

To what extent is political discontent possible before the original fault line in Pakistani politics democracy or something else is re-exposed? It is not enough for Mr Khan to simply claim that he and his supporters will never allow the democratic system to be cast aside when decisions to cast aside the democratic system have been made in the past, there is no civilian political entity that can simply reverse the decision. Once the trigger is pulled, after the circumstances have been created, it is all but impossible to put the anti-democracy bullet back in the chamber.

Yet, it is not just the possibility of the ultimate anti-democratic measure, threatened by Mr Khan, that the entire civilian political spectrum has to worry about. Already, in subtle though difficultto-deny ways, the civil-military imbalance has tipped further in favour of the military. Part of this is clearly the government`s fault, given its panicky responses to the PTI`s rally planned for Aug 14.

No one outside the government considers the invocation of Article 245 of the Constitution to be a wise political move. But in the always critically important sphere of civil-military relations, Mr Khan and the PTI`s actions have already, even if not deliberately, increased the pressure on the government to somehow pacify the army-led security establishment and do nothing on the policy front that would rankle. Surely, a government so much on the defensive can do little to further the transition to democracy.

 

[VCheng]

The "angels" play their games again, to keep the political process unsettled so that their "heavenly" party continues:


PTI’s unclear goals - Pakistan - DAWN.COM

PTI’s unclear goals
By Editorial
Published about 15 hours ago

The confusion extends to the senior leadership of the PTI itself, with some members talking about reforms, others talking about elections and all suggesting that the final demands would be left up to Mr Khan himself. — File photo

What were once amorphous demands have turned into ominous threats. And yet, even now, there is little clarity about what Imran Khan’s real goal is: electoral reforms or something more?

The confusion extends to the senior leadership of the PTI itself, with some members talking about reforms, others talking about elections and all suggesting that the final demands would be left up to Mr Khan himself. What is clear though is that the PTI is determined to push the government a fair distance — and perhaps all the way over the edge too.

Troubling as the PML-N’s conduct has been in some instances and while recognising that as the incumbent power, there is greater responsibility resting on the shoulders of the PML-N leadership, the PTI cannot quite escape blame for the growing sense of crisis and perhaps even threats to the system.

The most significant problem from a democratic perspective is not that Mr Khan wants to hold another large rally or that he is arguing that the May 2013 elections were not as free and fair as the best democratic standards demand.

The most significant problem is that Mr Khan seems unconcerned about the impact of his agitation on fundamental national political stability and the space his growing threats of street agitation is creating for anti-democratic forces in the country. It is really a question of degree. To what extent is political discontent possible before the original fault line in Pakistani politics — democracy or something else — is re-exposed?

It is not enough for Mr Khan to simply claim that he and his supporters will never allow the democratic system to be cast aside — when decisions to cast aside the democratic system have been made in the past, there is no civilian political entity that can simply reverse the decision. Once the trigger is pulled, after the circumstances have been created, it is all but impossible to put the anti-democracy bullet back in the chamber.

Yet, it is not just the possibility of the ultimate anti-democratic measure, threatened by Mr Khan, that the entire civilian political spectrum has to worry about. Already, in subtle though difficult-to-deny ways, the civil-military imbalance has tipped further in favour of the military. Part of this is clearly the government’s fault, given its panicky responses to the PTI’s rally planned for Aug 14. No one outside the government considers the invocation of Article 245 of the Constitution to be a wise political move.

But in the always critically important sphere of civil-military relations, Mr Khan and the PTI’s actions have already, even if not deliberately, increased the pressure on the government to somehow pacify the army-led security establishment and do nothing on the policy front that would rankle. Surely, a government so much on the defensive can do little to further the transition to democracy.

Published in Dawn, Aug 5th, 2014

 

[Patriots]

My friend,
This is the worse tragedy that Mr.Khan is novice in handling government's affairs and he is not a good politician regardless of this fact that he possesses excellent leadership skills.Let us make this clear that there is a huge different of being a leader and politician.
Nevertheless, it is good to see him as fast learner in politics. PML-N on the other hand is pissed because they don't want rigging to be highlighted. The very same Mr.Sharif was waging massive protest during PPP era,despite of this fact that he was warned of TTP's suicide attacks and huge loss of lives[as a response of Operation Enduring Freedom and rest 5/9 done at that time].
Now,very same Mr.Sharif is standing in same position:Operation Zarb e Azb is going on and there is huge threat of terrorist attack as response to ops while Mr.Khan is doing what Mr.Sharif has done earlier.
On the basis of above reasons,I will give him 9/10 as leader for using 'tit for tat' strategy.
However, as politician I will give him 4/10 as politician since he failed to keep GHQ in hand, plus he made huge mistake by celebrating eid with IDP since it has strengthen roots of Popalzai and element like him who intended to challenge and divide Pakistan. Mr.Khan talks about unity but he made mistake in here.He would have visited IDP in second day of eid rather then 29th of Ramadan. He must keep in mind that his every stance will effect upon public.
Regards

Now he is becoming a good politician but he is not a good leader ..........

 

[AstanoshKhan]

I do believe Imran Khan had been angling for threat of mass-scale agitation for quite some time. He has created a pretext in hearts and minds of die-hard PTI supporters, if not in actual fact. Perception rules, not facts. I've seen a number of PTI supporters and they are just as much in thrall of Imran Khan as Jiyalas of yore were in thrall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. They are not open to logic. They want change and they are not ready to listen to anything.

IK is taking calculated risks... he did a few (successful) gatherings in Punjab before announcing the Azadi March. He knows it will be a success and his demands will be met and that is evident enough from the panic seen in PMLN's ranks... and no Govt. can escape the wrath of street power... we've seen that happened to Shah of Iran, to Hosni Mubarak and many more and Nawaz is in no way stronger than either of them...

What will happen on 14th and after is yet to be seen but your analysis/outcomes would have made more sense if you had brought GHQ in the limelight too (considering what has been done to Musharraf and GEO/ISI debacle and PMLN's siding of GEO).