PTI Dharna Politics and Possible Scenarios

[Chak Bamu]

I do believe Imran Khan had been angling for threat of mass-scale agitation for quite some time. He has created a pretext in hearts and minds of die-hard PTI supporters, if not in actual fact. Perception rules, not facts. I've seen a number of PTI supporters and they are just as much in thrall of Imran Khan as Jiyalas of yore were in thrall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. They are not open to logic. They want change and they are not ready to listen to anything.

I have read some very cogent and compelling arguments on a poll-thread started by @Aether ( Do you support Azadi March? ) and I am so glad that people are showing a great deal of maturity in their posts there in how they assess political situation and ramification of Imran Khan's agitation-based approach.

I do suspect Imran Khan can not be all that dumb, that he does not understand the logical result and the implications thereof.

If he sticks with this approach, then it means that he is convinced that the Federal government would not let him work in KPK with peace. It seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Read on to find out why:

I see three scenarios:

1. PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is chaos and bloodshed. Army moves in and the country is put under Martial law. The following could happen:
A) Army announces elections after 3 months. Imran Khan has no guarantee that he would improve his chances, especially when people feel robbed and PML-N has a victim card. No political party would now go near PTI.
B) Army scraps constitution and forces Supreme Court to give a 2 year dispensation. PTI still comes out a looser at the end.
C) Army suspends constitution and Gen Raheel goes the Musharraf route of assuming presidentship and allows delayed and rigged elections. PTI still looses.

2. PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is that government beats the crap out of PTI workers and PAT workers. Army watches coolly and does nothing. The following could then happen:
A) PML-N goes on front foot. The governor dissolves the KPK cabinet and invites other parties to form a government. PTI is left to cry in a corner and PML-N, JUI-F, JI, & Aftab Sherpao form a government. Federal government supports this set up to complete a big infrastructure project or two in KPK. Coupled with better Law & Order situation and curbing of militancy, PML-N gets to claim an improvement in KPK. PTI would come out the looser.
B) Federal government does nothing. PTI goes back to governing KPK and has to keep looking over its shoulder to see if it is secure. Coalition partners would be chaffing at PTI's blind plunge into agitational politics and mull options. Federal government gives a hard time to KPK government and at the end of its term in 2018, PTI-led KPK government has an efficiency argument, but no particular visual mark of development. PTI comes out the looser.
C) PTI dissolves provincial assembly and forces a re-election. KPK voters are known to be fickle and they would likely punish PTI for having created a needless hassle. PTI would come out the looser. In case PTI resigns from National Assembly, they would loose seats for sure. More loss for PTI.

3. Qadri does what he does best and creates chaos. Imran Khan shrewdly makes a deal with beleaguered Federal Government while Army acts as a guarantor. PML-N introduces a bill in Parliament to improve the electoral process via reforms. The following can happen:
A) PML-N claims that they are doing what they planned to do all along. PTI makes some gains. IK declares moral victory. Electorate makes its own guesses.
B) PML-N drags the process and after a year, PTI finds itself in the same spot. With a bit more than 2 years to next elections, nobody would care to give him the support he feels that he needs on the streets. PTI has to go back to governing KPK as in 2B (above).

Based on my analysis above, the best PTI can hope for is 3A. While most likely result would be 3B. Anything else would be loss for PTI and Imran Khan.

In any case Imran Khan can not and will not become PM before 2018. If he has any smarts, he would make efforts to organize PTI into an established party that would be his bright legacy. If he does so, PTI would do more for Pakistan in the long-term than Imran Khan could do as PM in a single term.

@Aether , @Oscar , @Aeronaut , @AgNoStiC MuSliM , @Leader , @xyxmt , @ice_man , @Spring Onion , @Manticore , @blain2 , @Joe Shearer , @cb4 , @JonAsad , @Fracker , @faisal6309 , @TheFlyingPretzel , @Peaceful Civilian

 

[Hyde]

In most outcomes the PTI is going to lose most out of Azadi march. The only way forward for them is to just shout as they have always been doing and go back home

They could also resign from all the national and provincial assembly seats and come out for hue and cry for the next 3 years. PPPP played a victim card for 3 decades and they were quite successful. The talks of toppling the government and giving deadlines will lead us to Egypt-like anarchy, we don't want that

 

[Chak Bamu]

In most outcomes the PTI is going to lose most out of Azadi march. The only way forward for them is to just shout as they have always been doing and go back home

They could also resign from all the national and provincial assembly seats and come out for hue and cry for the next 3 years. PPPP played a victim card for 3 decades and they were quite successful. The talks of toppling the government and giving deadlines will lead us to Egypt-like anarchy, we don't want that

True, but then PTI is a young party of young people. But IK should know better. He has made mistakes. About time he learns from them. I think that PTI would learn from its mistakes instead of learning from other people's mistakes.

@JonAsad , comment needed. Thanks is not enough.
@TheFlyingPretzel , same for you too.

 

[Chak Bamu]

@TheFlyingPretzel can not yet post in this section. Here is his response:

"@@Chak Bamu I seem to be unable to comment on the thread: https://defence.pk/threads/pti-dharna-politics-and-possible-scenarios.327360/

In my humble opinion, I don't see IK striking a deal with the federal government considering the chagrin that would ensue, therefore, 1A appears to be the most plausible eventuality, primarily because a 100,000+ presence in Islamabad will not be tolerated for long - The foregoing does rely heavily on the assumption, of course, that Gen. Raheel is a bigger person than what Gen. Musharraf was.

Again, I do hope I'm wrong and 3B, which is my second best guess, takes shape.

Source: Do you support Azadi March? | Page 5"

My response:

I am ever an optimist. That is one fault I can not rid myself of. When I say 3B will likely happen, I am being an optimist to an extent. Also, I think that IK can not be that dumb as to not know what will transpire when he adopts a rigid and unforgiving course of action.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Nothing idealogically wrong , they feel that their election was rigged there was no investigation done and thus they are protesting. In a peaceful demonstration in their free country what is the problem

 

[Chak Bamu]

Nothing idealogically wrong , they feel that their election was rigged there was no investigation done and thus they are protesting. In a peaceful demonstration in their free country what is the problem

If you can catch IK's drift, there is plenty wrong, unless he has some well-thought out strategy.

I am only guessing here. But my guesses have been pretty good in the past. Let us see.

You do not have to see any problem. I am only looking at various scenarios. Feel free to contribute.

 

[Leader]

All you guys do is rant, rant, rant... I wonder sometimes, if you guys somehow believe that to be argument?

anyway, I have yet to see a single reasonable argument that why shouldn't election rigging not be exposed and why electoral reforms should not be demanded and why shouldn't family politics end !!

 

[Chak Bamu]

All you guys do is rant, rant, rant... I wonder sometimes, if you guys somehow believe that to be argument?

anyway, I have yet to see a single reasonable argument that why shouldn't election rigging not be exposed and why electoral reforms should not be demanded and why shouldn't family politics end !!

I have presented scenarios, feel free to challenge them. If I am forecasting something wrong, correct it.

Rants are not analysis of a developing situation. Rants are borne out of emotional commitment to a position, and are mostly used to prop a sagging cause.

Aether's thread referenced in the first post has pretty good arguments. You just do not acknowledge them because doing so would make you question PTI's course of action. You fail to notice that I was a PTI supporter like @Aether , but our loyalties are with Pakistan and with evolution of system instead of some ill-conceived plan of one month revolution. I can not speak for Aether, but I can assure you that I am open to reconsidering my position if I see that he has learned his lessons. This dharna thing is going to be a lesson. If he does not learn from it, then I give up on PTI until 2018.

 

[Leader]

I have presented scenarios, feel free to challenge them. If I am forecasting something wrong, correct it.

Rants are not analysis of a developing situation. Rants are borne out of emotional commitment to a position, and are mostly used to prop a sagging cause.

Aether's thread referenced in the first post has pretty good arguments. You just do not acknowledge them because doing so would make you question PTI's course of action. You fail to notice that I was a PTI supporter like @Aether , but our loyalties are with Pakistan and with evolution of system instead of some ill-conceived plan of one month revolution. I can not speak for Aether, but I can assure you that I am open to reconsidering my position if I see that he has learned his lessons. This dharna thing is going to be a lesson. If he does not learn from it, then I give up on PTI until 2018.

again, no answer, only rants and God know why everybody thinks that they can blackmail by saying, "Oh I was a PTI supporter but not anymore", come on homies, be more creative !

 

[xyxmt]

pretext: If you are expecting PTI supporters to get involved in this discussion then you will be disappointed, all they know is the blame game and name calling.

Imran with his infinite wisdom is just as rigid as his supporters, he thinks after he speaks and thats the reason he is known to be a master of U-turns. I dont think he thought it thru before he got too excited in a rally and announced a million man march, yesterday in a press conference he was saying that a million motor cycles will go from Lahore so I dont know how his math works but he is expecting to bring a crowd bigger than the population of Islamabad. does he have any idea who is going to manage that crowd. All someone has to do is spread one rumor and there goes the country in hell. I mean does he even have a brain, he seem more hungry for power than NS and Zardari, cant he just wait 3.5 more years and in the meantime work with govt in a constructive ways to bring about his electoral reforms so that; as he thinks everyone is voting for him; he can be a undisputed king of Pakistan. What the F**** has his party done in KPK that he thinks the entire country is itching for those cakes.

 

[Spring Onion]

In most outcomes the PTI is going to lose most out of Azadi march. The only way forward for them is to just shout as they have always been doing and go back home

They could also resign from all the national and provincial assembly seats and come out for hue and cry for the next 3 years. PPPP played a victim card for 3 decades and they were quite successful. The talks of toppling the government and giving deadlines will lead us to Egypt-like anarchy, we don't want that

In my personal opinion i think PTI/IK is just giving hard time to the government with a policy to keep them engaged in fear factor and thus make them handicap which is leading and will lead to NO real work/progress/development on the part of PML-N govt opening up space for PTI and some other political party in coming elections.


They wont topple the government

 

[SQ8]

again, no answer, only rants and God know why everybody thinks that they can blackmail by saying, "Oh I was a PTI supporter but not anymore", come on homies, be more creative !

You are the only one who is ranting. Those are logical arguments, either counter with logic or as it is clear that you have none; we can all agree that even you have no clue to what your Party is about to do.

 

[Amaa'n]

I will second what @Spring Onion has said above---and i have been saying this for a while and i humbly support it.... The idea is to keep pressure mounted, it will keep the Federal Govt on its toes and we can surely push for some electoral reforms....
If you give them free hand and let them run as they are going for next 3 years, then we will be seeing same thing with no reforms in next elections....
And we will be stuck in same stone age crap......
The only thing is PTI needs to keep itself focus and make it seem real.......
Military is nit in a mood for Martial Law.... Only in worst case when leaders have messed it all up,....but i doubt thus case.......

@Aeronaut, lala please share this thread on Facebook, and post of chak bamu.... It will be a good change of taste for audience

I do believe Imran Khan had been angling for threat of mass-scale agitation for quite some time. He has created a pretext in hearts and minds of die-hard PTI supporters, if not in actual fact. Perception rules, not facts. I've seen a number of PTI supporters and they are just as much in thrall of Imran Khan as Jiyalas of yore were in thrall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. They are not open to logic. They want change and they are not ready to listen to anything.

I have read some very cogent and compelling arguments on a poll-thread started by @Aether ( Do you support Azadi March? ) and I am so glad that people are showing a great deal of maturity in their posts there in how they assess political situation and ramification of Imran Khan's agitation-based approach.

I do suspect Imran Khan can not be all that dumb, that he does not understand the logical result and the implications thereof.

If he sticks with this approach, then it means that he is convinced that the Federal government would not let him work in KPK with peace. It seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Read on to find out why:

I see three scenarios:

1. PTI conducts his march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is chaos and bloodshed. Army moves in and the country is put under Martial law. The following could happen:
A) Army announces elections after 3 months. Imran Khan has no guarantee that he would improve his chances, especially when people feel robbed and PML-N has a victim card. No political party would now go near PTI.
B) Army scraps constitution and forces Supreme Court to give a 2 year dispensation. PTI still comes out a looser at the end.
C) Army suspends constitution and Gen Raheel goes the Musharraf route of assuming presidentship and allows delayed and rigged elections. PTI still looses.

2. PTI conducts its march. Qadri does what he does best and the result is that government beats the crap out of PTI workers and PAT workers. Army watches coolly and does nothing. The following could then happen:
A) PML-N goes on front foot. The governor dissolves the KPK cabinet and invites other parties to form a government. PTI is left to cry in a corner and PML-N, JUI-F, JI, & Aftab Sherpao form a government. Federal government supports this set up to complete a big infrastructure project or two in KPK. Coupled with better Law & Order situation and curbing of militancy, PML-N gets to claim an improvement in KPK. PTI would come out the looser.
B) Federal government does nothing. PTI goes back to governing KPK and has to keep looking over its shoulder to see if it is secure. Coalition partners would be chaffing at PTI's blind plunge into agitational politics and mull options. Federal government gives a hard time to KPK government and at the end of its term in 2018, PTI-led KPK government has an efficiency argument, but no particular visual mark of development. PTI comes out the looser.
C) PTI dissolves provincial assembly and forces a re-election. KPK voters are known to be fickle and they would likely punish PTI for having created a needless hassle. PTI would come out the looser. In case PTI resigns from Federal government, they would loose seats for sure. More loss for PTI.

3. Qadri does what he does best and creates chaos. IK shrewdly makes a deal with beleaguered Federal Government while Army acts as a guarantor. PML-N introduces a bill in Parliament to improve the electoral process via reforms. The following can happen:
A) PML-N claims that they are doing what they planned to do all along. PTI makes some gains. IK declares moral victory. Electorate makes its own guesses.
B) PML-N drags the process and after a year, PTI finds itself in the same spot. With a bit more than 2 years to next elections, nobody would care to give him the support he feels that he needs on the streets. PTI has to go back to governing KPK as in 2B (above).

Based on my analysis above, the best PTI can hope for is 3A. While most likely result would be 3B. Anything else would be loss for PTI and Imran Khan.

In any case Imran Khan can not and will not become PM before 2018. If he has any smarts, he would make efforts to organize PTI into an established party that would be his bright legacy. If he does so, PTI would do more for Pakistan in the long-term than Imran Khan could do as PM in a single term.

@Aether , @Oscar , @Aeronaut , @AgNoStiC MuSliM , @Leader , @xyxmt , @ice_man , @Spring Onion , @Manticore , @blain2 , @Joe Shearer , @cb4 , @JonAsad , @Fracker , @faisal6309 , @TheFlyingPretzel , @Peaceful Civilian

 

[Fracker]

.... The idea is to keep pressure mounted, it will keep the Federal Govt on its toes and we can surely push for some electoral reforms....

Pretty wrong here. If election reforms were the end point. IK wouldn't have ask for SS or His Brother Resignation, The only goal for this whole drama is that he thinks he will become PM, if he continue the path..

For election reforms, Government already offered PTI many times, even many other party announce their presence for this. But PTI backed out from that.
If rigging was the issue, Government accepted their Audit demand.

This pressure tactic are to break the government and mount Imran Khan a PM

 

[Marshmallow]

I will second what @Spring Onion has said above---and i have been saying this for a while and i humbly support it.... The idea is to keep pressure mounted, it will keep the Federal Govt on its toes and we can surely push for some electoral reforms....
If you give them free hand and let them run as they are going for next 3 years, then we will be seeing same thing with no reforms in next elections....
And we will be stuck in same stone age crap......
The only thing is PTI needs to keep itself focus and make it seem real.......
Military is nit in a mood for Martial Law.... Only in worst case when leaders have messed it all up,....but i doubt thus case.......

@Aeronaut, lala please share this thread on Facebook, and post of chak bamu.... It will be a good change of taste for audience

this is the thing that people are not acknowledging yet....why should one even not work at all for the next elections to be conducted in free and fair environment? this country is not someone's personal property,in this case neither of Zardari's nor of Sharrif's that they shouldnt be questioned at all on whatever they do and that only they and their families should be allowed to rule!

if this is the case then kindly change the name of Pakistan to Islamic Republic of Sharrifs and Zardaris and their next generation! thanks!