Prediction about Pakistan in next few Weeks

[Al Bhatti]

August 9, 2014

Nawaz Sharif Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif meeting Prime Minister David Cameron, 10 Downing Street, London, Britain - 30 Apr 2014

Will Sharif be able to ride turbulence?
The Pakistani prime minister’s first year in office has vividly demonstrated his failure to tackle the country’s multiple challenges

Clashes between Pakistan’s police and followers of Tahirul Qadri, an Islamic preacher, on Friday in parts of the Punjab province, have clearly set the pace for coming events. They have also indicated a growing tendency under the regime of Pakistan’s prime minister Nawaz Sharif to opt for an overkill in dealing with anti-government dissent across the increasingly troubled nuclear-armed south Asian country.

Welcome to the latest turn of events in Pakistan where anti-government protests are set to grow in the coming days, causing added political turbulence at a time when stability is already excessively fragile.

Yesterday, Sharif called for national unity during a gathering of high ranking army officers and prominent politicians, assembled in Islamabad to review progress in an ongoing campaign against Taliban militants. Yet, the mood on the streets remained far too removed from Sharif’s visibly conciliatory spin.

His regime has responded to the growing crisis with a two-fold strategy. On the one hand, the regime appears determined to defy its opponents practically as simply malicious trouble makers.

On the other hand, Sharif’s regime has opted to enforce the law with an iron hand. Rather than critically analyse Qadri’s onslaught from the central city of Lahore and deal with it politically, the provincial regime in the Punjab, of which Lahore is the local capital, has chosen to opt for strong armed tactics. Qadri’s arrest has also been ordered. Ultimately, the fight to the finish will likely be fought and decided in Lahore where Shahbaz Sharif, the prime minister’s younger brother,is chief minister of Punjab.


The emerging events in Pakistan have raised the profoundly significant question if indeed Sharif’s days in power are numbered? The answer to that riddle depends on his ability to overcome the challenge. The past year — Sharif’s first year as prime minister following the 2013 parliamentary elections, has vividly demonstrated the Pakistani prime minister’s failure to tackle the country’s multiple challenges.


Politically, Sharif has remained detached from the country’s mainstream. More often than not, his absence from parliament in Islamabad has demonstrated the Pakistani prime minister’s lack of interest in giving an impetus to a political process that will tackle Pakistan’s many challenges. On Saturday, Sharif’s appearance at the gathering in Islamabad and his conciliatory message was an exception to the way he has remained aloof from Pakistan’s politics.

On other fronts, notably Pakistan’s economic direction, there is a similar story. Sharif has overseen a constant push to create mega projects such as high-profile roads across Pakistan, at a time when the country continues to suffer from an energy crisis. Meanwhile, just below half of Pakistan’s population lives in extreme poverty while there appears to be little attention to the need for embracing a fast paced revamp of essential public services like health care and education. Eventually, it is clear that the government’s largely detached character from the needs of Pakistan’s mainstream will likely contribute to the existing factors that have fuelled hardline militancy.

At least six policemen deployed among a force in Lahore to surround Qadri’s home, were kidnapped by Qadri’s followers yesterday. Images of the six men helplessly surrounded by baton-wielding young activists clearly illustrated the deteriorating scenario in Pakistan.

At a time when Sharif must lead from the front in forging an unprecedented national unity to fight Taliban militants who pose an existential threat to Pakistan, his growing inability to tackle increasingly violent political dissent raises questions over the country’s future.

More vitally, the increasingly hapless state of Pakistan’s police in the face of Qadri’s movement is a powerful reminder of historical precedents where the refusal of law enforcers in different states, has eventually contributed to changing regimes. Perhaps even at this difficult time, Sharif could have recovered a part of his increasingly crippled regime. Yet, the statesmanship of the kind which will be required to pull off such a major recovery, so far seems lacking in the Pakistani prime minister’s character.

In the coming days, Sharif’s next big challenge will come on Thursday when Imran Khan, the cricket star-turned politician, has announced plans to lead a freedom march to Islamabad. The event is appropriately timed to coincide with August 14 – Pakistan’s annual independence day. Khan’s protest began months ago when he claimed widespread fraud in the 2013 parliamentary elections that brought Sharif to power.

Yesterday, Sharif extended an olive branch to Khan, agreeing to discuss ways to satisfy the latter, in the hope of working jointly to preserve and promote Pakistan’s democracy. However, it is a message which appears to have come too late in the day.

Not only has the regime’s strong armed response to recent protests revealed its intention to use tough tactics rather than political reason to tackle angry dissent. It’s a message from Sharif which follows the abject failure of his regime in giving Pakistan a new direction.

Going forward, with or without Sharif’s ruling structure succumbing to the prevailing events, Pakistanis have good reason to ask a pertinent question: Is Pakistan’s present day ruling structure capable of giving a qualitatively new and significantly improved direction to the country? On the face of it, anecdotal evidence suggests that the answer must lie in the non-affirmative.

Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.


Will Sharif be able to ride turbulence? | GulfNews.com

 

[Pakistanisage]

Nawaz Sharif has totally failed as the leader of Pakistan and needs to be urgently removed from Power before there is more bloodshed of innocent Pakistanis. Last few days have seen a good sampling of how PMLN is determined to save its Government even at the cost of destroying everyday life of ordinary Pakistanis.

By sealing Cities of Punjab, they have made life unlivable for Citizens of Punjab. The traders whose containers have been seized by the PMLN Government have suffered losses of Billions of Rupees. The sick Patients cannot reach the hospitals and are being denied Healthcare. Foods and Vegetables are not getting to the markets creating artificial shortages and sending prices soaring.

This Government cannot deliver Good Governance because of its Pathetic Policies.

 

[Rashid Mahmood]

My prediction is that we are heading for a major turmoil, which can be damaging for Pakistan.
The next 15 - 20 days are extremely critical.

The Army should intervene and tell all politicians to stop playing with the country.

 

[WishLivePak]

My prediction is, nothing will happen right now. In long run, Qadri will never return to Pakistan. Imran will lose the next election like ANP, in 2018. He will also lose KPK. Punjab will be ruling kp and punjab, as well as center.

Imran has ruined himself and his party by being confused and blaming everyone for all his problems.

 

[gangsta_rap]

The Army should intervene and tell all politicians to stop playing with the country.

Honestly I want the military to do something to. It might hit the fan soon.

Politicans will use the 'shaheed' card if the army makes a move. They'll play with the public's emtions and then poof! Right back to square one.

 

[IceCold]

There is a core commander conference going on today. Does anyone has inside what is the agenda besides the usual "internal and external situation to be monitored"?

 

[WishLivePak]

There is a core commander conference going on today. Does anyone has inside what is the agenda besides the usual "internal and external situation to be monitored"?

No insider yet but some of us know

Don't want to spoil it yet.

 

[IceCold]

No insider yet but some of us know

Don't want to spoil it yet.

That much we all know. What i meant was the mood of the people in the conference. From the looks they seem pretty pissed.

 

[Al Bhatti]

My prediction is that we are heading for a major turmoil, which can be damaging for Pakistan.
The next 15 - 20 days are extremely critical.

The Army should intervene and tell all politicians to stop playing with the country.

Who cares to stop playing with the country?

 

[Asian.Century]

Lahoris take a sigh of relief as petrol, CNG pumps reopen after 3 days

LAHORE: The citizens have heaved a sigh of great relief as petrol and CNG outlets after three consecutive days of forced closure started reopening, containers blocking the roads removed and traffic flow restored in the provincial capital city here on Monday morning, Geo News reported.

Sources said petrol pumps and CNG stations, which were forced to close down and road blocks placed at all the city entry points since Thursday night to thwart Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) observing Shuhada week, have started reopening this morning, much to the relief of the virtually besieged citizens over here.

The citizens expressing their pleasure over the removal of the containers from the roads said that the government under no circumstances should take such measures of blocking roads and closing petrol/CNG pumps virtually putting the people under house arrests for no fault of their own.

Print this story

 

[niaz]

This was sent to me by a friend. Makes an interesting read.


PAKISTAN TODAY Sunday August 10, 2014


Two Gauntlets for Mr. Sharif


Humayun Gauhar


The creeping coup continues as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif keeps needlessly ceding more and more space to the army with the contradictory idea of gathering maximum power in his office. Having handed Islamabad over to it for two months under Article 245 of the constitution, anything could happen. The army could even arrest him if his presence is considered inimical to law and good order to save Pakistan, which is the very justification of it’s existence and its first responsibility.

The question is: how does Nawaz Sharif deal with the two gauntlets thrown down at him by Imran Khan and Tahir ul Qadri? It seems obvious that he is going to overreact as always and do the stupid thing as always. Qadri and Imran have common and uncommon objectives. Their common objective is to bring down the government. Their uncommon objectives are that whereas Imran Khan wants to force midterm elections while remaining within the political system, Qadri wants to bring the entire system down and replace it with one that delivers on Pakistan’s promise of 1947.

Because Imran’s party emerged as the second largest in the May 12, 2013 elections and formed a government in one province he has morphed from revolutionary to beneficiary of the system. Any wonder he only wishes to force mid-term elections while protecting the system that he thinks will now work for him? Times were when he thought that he could change our man-eating system from within. Instead, the man-eating system changed him. But his essential honesty remains strong enough to sublimate the mistakes that he has made. Imran remains the same Imran bent on salvaging his country. Revolution is forgotten for the time being, except for its sound effect. Now it’s all about power, not for power’s sake, but to use it to improve the people’s lot. Imran thinks that midterm elections will lead to victory provided that – and it’s a big proviso – they won’t be rigged this once. There is no gainsaying that he might not win, so fed up are people of the old parties and their decrepit leaderships long on rhetoric and short on delivery. The system is not programmed to trash its few beneficiaries and improve the condition of the deprived many. It is not in its DNA. Imran being convinced that honest elections will lead to fortune is fine, but the proof of the pudding lies in the eating. Whatever happens, Imran should certainly emerge as an even more powerful force than he has already become unless he makes a complete hash of it. Between him and Qadri it is Ego Versus Ego – who is the alpha male? If it were just Pakistan and its people that they had at heart and nothing else, they would join forces and make it one big Intifada. But one has to be top dog.

The times are interesting worldwide, perfect for a writer who thrives on seeing history in the making. The Leviathan is morphing, convulsing, shedding its old skin and acquiring a new one, bringing societal change with a massive shift in the global centre of gravity, the pendulum of power swinging back from west to east, a unipolar world becoming multipolar, geographies changing again, old states dying and new ones being born. Pakistan could either change course 180 degrees and upturn the status quo or go full circle once again and take another 360 degree turn, returning to the same status quo with some old faces or their Mini-Me progeny, as has happened so often before in our chequered history – from feudal to feudal urban or rural, leader to progeny, dynasticism prospers.

Imran Khan threatens to blockade Islamabad on Independence Day. If he is hindered, things could get badly out of hand. If blood flows or in the horrific event that Imran is injured or killed, all hell will break loose and the wheels of the creaky Sharif bandwagon will fall off. It’s a high price to pay though to rid us of these self-destructive morons who will commit another political suicide anyway.

Dr. Tahir ul Qadri says that he will mark Martyr’s Day four days earlier on August 10 to commemorate the massacre of his workers, men and women, children and unborn babies, by the Sharif provincial government in Lahore. The day, promises Qadri, will also mark the beginning of revolution leading to the demise of the Sharif government by the end of August. One waits with bated breath to see how well or badly the government handles these two challenges. The portends are that they will overreach and invite their political doom again.

But wait a minute. Toppling a bad government is easy but revolution is quite another matter. Toppling can come by street protest, a military coup or a combination of both as it almost always does. Governments have been toppled before in Pakistan and elsewhere by a combination of agitation that provided the justification for the military to intervene openly or from behind the veil. Problem is, what to do the day after. Yet another election will throw up yet another bad government and we will be back yet again to square one. Young Imran’s notion that an honest and fair election can be held in this system without any significant rigging of the ballot is a delusion. Rigging and dishonesty are the hallmark of our system and the only politics our politicians know. And if Imran thinks that he can win elections without support from forces behind the scenes, and I don’t mean just the army but also the country that runs the world, he has another thought coming. However, if he becomes prime minister with their backing, what difference could he make? It will be the same old wine in a new bottle and different rhetoric. But considering how sceptical many people and the much of the press were when Imran entered politics, and how some lampooned him, Imran has come a long way. Well done, Skipper. I for one am very proud of you. You are far better than the odious, smelly, corrupt political leaders we have had ever since we achieved majority. Actually, Imran doesn’t have to destroy this political system bequeathed to us by the British colonizers and their British India Act of 1935. It will destroying itself for self-destruction lies in the genes of any alien transplant. What Imran should do is to think what system should replace it, a system that delivers to the people and continuously and significantly improves the human condition starting from the poorest strata of society. Tahir ul Qadri has thought on these lines; so should Imran.

I have always said that one should separate the message from the messenger. Not being comfortable with the messenger should not detract from his message if it is broadly right. There certainly are some contradictions in Qadri’s past that need explaining but at the moment saving Pakistan should be the prime focus. Look upon Qadir as the catalyst of change, Imran as the trigger. However, if Qadri thinks that toppling the government will mean toppling the system, it won’t. It will mean just that – toppling the government. To change the system and bring in another, new constitution and all, will need genuine revolution that shakes the citadels of the great, awakens the poor, sets the blood of slaves afire and causes the little sparrow to engage the mighty falcon. For this he will need street power, ideologues, cadres, a vanguard and a propaganda machine that understands strategic communications and perception management.

Woefully short on imagination and untutored in “the art of the possible” the two Sharif governments, provincial and federal, are reacting in the manner that governments on the run usually do. Remember the ridiculous October 12, 1999 episode when Nawaz Sharif hijacked General Pervez Musharraf’s plane and tried to send it to India? It didn’t occur to this mastermind that handing over his army chief to the enemy would mean treason. He overreacted again when his kid brother’s Punjab government massacred 15 of Qadri’s people, smashed cars and injured over eighty. When Dr. Qadri was to land in Islamabad Nawaz blocked off the airport and all roads leading to it, the police unnecessarily attacked his workers and got thrashed in return, and hijacked his aircraft to Lahore. Nawaz Sharif is a serial hijacker of aircraft and elections. He is doing the same again: blocking roads and arresting Imran and Qadri’s workers. If he arrests them too he loses. If one of them is killed, he loses. If people are massacred, he loses. If he cedes more space to the army, he loses. If he calls snap elections, he might win.

To spoil Imran’s show Nawaz tried to hold a parade on the dug up Constitution Avenue on Independence Day. Not unexpectedly, the army refused, saying that historically the parade had been held on Republic Day March 23 when Pakistan stopped being a British dominion. Anyway, the army was too busy in wars against foreign and native terrorists to be distracted. So the ‘Mastermind’ and his irrational henchmen went one better: they activated Article 245 of the constitution and handed Islamabad over to the army. Now only the Houses of State remain. They think that by so doing they would make the army the fall guy in the event of any conflict with the people. Or is Article 245 Nawaz Sharif’s escape route that will keep him politically alive as a martyr of ‘democracy’? I don’t think so, because Nawaz is not so clever. More likely he and his entire cabal will run away. The times they are a changing fast and it is all going over poor Nawaz Sharif’s head. He is so mentally out of it (I hesitate to use the word ‘intellectually’) that it could well be that he doesn’t understand the import of what he has done and neither is there anyone in his ‘democratic’ junta to tell him, for they are as mentally challenged as he is.

humayun.gauhar786@gmail.com

 

[Pakistanisage]

The VERMINS of Pakistan - The Sharifs and Zardaris......

 

[Al Bhatti]

The VERMINS of Pakistan - The Sharifs and Zardaris......

And the other ones of the cities, if you know what I mean.

 

[Asian.Century]

Wajahat S. Khan

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

They’re thinking. They’re always thinking. In fact, for the last few years, as the political narrative shifted permanently in the favor of their decreased role in politics – officially, the Political Cell was a wrap, remember – they’ve had a lot of time to think. And so, of late, they’ve thought up a few things.

They’re thinking that Nawaz Sharif isn’t over the hangover that is Pervez Musharraf. They’re thinking that Nawaz thought he could “own” General Raheel Sharif, as he was handpicked to be a neutral, relatively apolitical surprise. They’re thinking that this is less about the Establishment versus Democracy and more about the natural battle that is the Establishment versus an inherently anti-Establishment PML-N. Yes, of course, they’re thinking about India and Conflicts of Interest and all those other, highly debatable, statecraft versus commerce moves that Raiwind has famously pushed the envelope for. But they’re also, very interestingly, thinking Egypt; though not in the way one would think that they would be thinking.

To clarify: There are no el-Sisis in this GHQ. Not these days. But there are a few Newtons, who would like to remind everyone about the powerful laws of gravity, from time to time. This may be one of those times.

Go back. Go back to last January, even December, to those initial rounds of hearty one-on-one meetings with a beaming Chief and a glorious PM, all well televised, all duly covered. We know that some of those interactions were icebreakers, but they quickly melted into the meat of the matter: the Musharraf indictment versus exit shuffle. Alas, the bilats produced nothing. Raheel arrived. Raheel saluted. And then Raheel walked out with nothing but his hat in his hand. Not once; not twice; but serially.

That’s when they realized something was up. Raiwind was starting to play the “Saada Chief, Not Twaada Chief” game. Abbaji used to play that game, once, they recalled. He was never very good at it. Nor was his son, they surmised. That’s when they started digging in.

Surely, Raheel wasn’t the man groomed for the slot; he wasn’t Rashad, with his counter-terror and general staff chiefdom suaveness. He wasn’t Tariq, with his stars and stripes and scalps from Waziristan; he wasn’t Zaheer, who was Kayani’s shadow of continuity and smoldering intensity; he wasn’t internally lobby-less either, like Haroon. He was rough and tumble, this Raheel, the kind of man who offers you a light and a Davidoff, even if he’s got more brass than you. He was a big-handshaking, Nishan-e-Haider legate of a Piffer. But, after all, he was a well decorated three-star, who’d burnt just as much fuel as any of the other contenders. Nobody had done him any favours by making him Chief, they concluded. He was “Saada Chief”, not “Mian Da Naukar.” He wouldn’t be subjected to any Abbaji games: handpicked, a surprise, or not.

Thus, they did what they do best, and much better than anyone else: They drew ranks. They would protect the Chief. No more hats in hand; it was time for warning shots. And they swore they wouldn’t be flanked on anything, including Musharraf – who, they thought, would be let off, as promised, after the indictment (but wasn’t, because of what they surmised was Mian Sahib’s legendary and incorrigible grudge syndrome).

By early spring, the Sharif-on-Sharif one-on-ones had stopped. Raheel got a new wingman: Enter Lt. General Zaheer-ul-Islam, whose name actually translates into “Protector of Islam”, and not ironically, either, for the second most powerful office in Pakistan – the ISI Director General’s – is practically the budgetary equivalent to of the other services: officially comparable to the Air Force and dwarfing the Navy, with more manpower, some have assessed, than those two services combined, and a arsenal of access and leverage that exceeds that of even four-stars, except, perhaps, his own boss.

And so the meetings continued, wingman and all, but morphed again, as they became less personal and more institutional, even formal. Changing events shaped further consultations. Most of the civilized interactions, the well-reported ones, at least – with the Director General Military Operations and others, in tow – were bracketed under “security situation discussed”.

The narrative for these huddles last spring was, largely, that civil-military ties remained firmly in place for the North Waziristan “talks versus operation” debate. The civs wanted to chat. The cannons wanted to thunder. Thus, the Talibs would be divided. Everybody would look good, and committed to their jobs. It was a good performance, as both sides played along, ably refereed by the Americans to keep the dialogue timeline limited: The 2014 clock across the border was ticking, after all.

But also ticking was the Musharraf versus Mian time bomb. Less publicized interactions, and hustled helicopter trips, about the former president – whose case, they strongly think, is a matter of principle, and not personal, like it is for Mian Sahib – saw the civ-mil strand unraveling, over-stretching, weakening. And so, by April, they noted, the Khawajas, both Asif and Saad, ably backstopped by the blady Pervez Rashid, were the bad cops with razors, going to town on the Commando as the ropes of legality tied him down.

Their assessment was simple: Raiwind had reneged. Sideshows, like the Defence Minister’s personally signed letters to SHOs demanding arrests of soldiers for the Missing Persons Case would only embitter the increasingly rancid atmosphere. How could a soldier out on the front open fire on an enemy, they thought, when a serving defence minister was filing FIRs against his platoon-mate? Why didn’t he just play the sensitive issue down, they asked? And so they drew together some more, swearing to make him the Minister of Self Defence, like others before him. But that was only a minor skirmish.

Before the larger battle, negotiations failed. Then, Raheel’s Tarbela-SSG “Protect and Respect Our Institution” statement was shot across Raiwind’s bow. The same week, Sharif tried to regroup, meeting Asif Ali Zardari, who’d been here before, but was obviously out of ideas, and outclassed by a new breed of legionnaires.

Meanwhile, they noted, the “Saada Chief” game of “owning” Raheel, especially dividing him from his wingman, was continuing. Soon after, the PM’s conciliatory PMA speech was delivered to a bunch of fired up cadets. But it was too late. That same fateful day, April 19th, the Hamid Mir/ISI debacle unfurled, and proved to be a tipping point for all sides concerned as it became a compounder for civ-mil tensions, making the entire mess inter-institutional for all and intra-institutional for some; except them.

Again, everybody came out slightly seared or terribly burnt from that inferno, except them. Their armour plating - drawn ranks – had protected them.

That’s when, they figured, it was show-time. For the North Waziristan Operation, which would propel their standing, respect and approval ratings even further; and perhaps for another type theatre.

Enter, stage-left: Imran, The Constitutionalist. Imran, The Angry Man. Imran, The Hungry One. Imran, Who Wants Justice. Imran, Who Felt Slighted. Most importantly, Imran was also the Manchurian Candidate: The one who wasn’t predictable. A sledgehammer that, once swung, couldn’t be precisely targeted or controlled. He had a mind of his own, the Khan did. And now a party of supplicants with a dead beat for a province, too. Imran was nobody’s man with a penchant for assuming leads and taking on hard, uphill battles that made little practical sense. He was a large caliber bullet. If fired, he would cause massive damage. If self-exploded, he would make a big, scary bang anyway. Displayed, he would look menacing, at the very least. With a long enough run up, he could, potentially, hemorrhage the confidence out of a Raiwind standing alone, facing the Pavilion End. Perfect.

Enter, stage-right: Qadri, The Made-for-TV Showman. Qadri, The Bilingual Can-Talk-To-Western-Audiences Orator. Qadri, The Benevolent Anti-Taliban Islamist. Qadri, The Barelvi Horde Commander. Most importantly, Qadri was the Green Revolutionary, the one who could challenge the status quo in the name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful, for whom the Constitution stands in abeyance if its protectors and practitioners fail his test of Sadiq and Amin literalism. Who would need the 111 Brigade when Qadri’s regiments could mobilize as effectively? Two winters ago, Qadri had pulled a Napoleon and underestimated Islamabad’s chill. Also, Zardari, the Duke Wellington of political negotiations, had outmaneuvered him out of his bulletproof, climate controlled container. The climate this time – monsoon-wise and politically, was unstable. The enemy’s trench warfare tactics were evident after Model Town. The template for combat was simple: This was good hunting season for Qadri’s stick-wielding, karate-trained, sit-in warriors.

We can’t say who, exactly, drafted the script. We are told, in fact, that there is no script; that this is organic democracy at play. That’s why it has taken so long for everyone in this grand opposition to get on the same page. That’s why there’s a counter-narrative, somewhere, out there. And that’s why the goal posts keep shifting. There is no big master plan, it is said.

We are conveyed that this is open mic night for freelancers – Khan, Qadri, the Chaudhries, the Sheikh, the Shia alliance, the Sunni Tehreek. That’s why the Jamshed Dastis are excited and signing up for the pep rally. That’s why some media is buying their wares, while other media is glaring at them with disapproval, picking apart their position, forcing it to be adjusted from the violent to the tolerant. It’s a good story, really.

We are also firmly told that the days of troops clumsily climbing over the walls of PTV Headquarters are long gone. These are the times when 1.2 billion dollars worth of Coalition Support Funds will go poof if boot leather is smelt anywhere near Constitution Avenue. That international markets and institutions, sanctions, civil society, media – all will converge upon the next President General and rip off his epaulets. There are more stakeholders today, it is clarified.

That’s why Article 245 was the Army’s idea, we are told: To protect the state, not to pulverize it. Translated: No coups, this century. Sincerely, GHQ.

But how about an outsourced – or, if we believe them, even an organic - democrat-led putsch. Or three? There are varying degrees of war-gaming here: An “in-house” change minus the Sharifs with, say, the dicey Chaudhry Nisar at the helm of affairs? Or a Tahrir Square type of face-off covered and compounded by local, global and social media that forces an international rethink on the Nawaz regime’s mandate in contemporary, not 2013, terms? Or a violent cock-up by paramilitaries or cops on the ground in Lahore or nearby that forces a Punjab-only regime change with the head of Shahbaz Sharif presented before the horde of the Khan-Qadri combine? Or the same in Islamabad which results in Nawaz being quartered? Or, simply, a Kakar Formula meets Kayani Formula moment, which is realized, for example, if Lahore becomes a frenzy, or when the march is miles away, say, near Gujranwala, enabling the Chief to drop in and make a house call to see the PM. But then what? Will everyone else in this multiparty system fall in line? Will Mahmood Khan Achakzai remain silent? No.

Let’s think more. How about a last minute dues ex machina by a compulsive Nawaz himself? Or, how about an assassination? Or a suicide bombing? Or a grenade attack? Or a stampede? Will violence – contrived, chaotic or consequential – be enough to force a rethink on this regime, by this regime, during this regime? Maybe, but probably not. Not immediately, unless it is catastrophic.

Still, there is blood in the water. Aren’t the MQM’s new London to Lahore axis and Zardari’s new Bilawal House to Washington hustle serious indicators that something is cooking; the MQM is the best weather-wane to indicate if an Establishment front is developing; and Zardari is a political shaman, who could smell a change with his eyes closed in a political dust storm.

Was it random, then, that several weeks ago Khursheed Shah suddenly piped up about shorter tenures after the next election? Is there bipartisan same-pagedness that the well-known Baray Mian to Chotay Mian to Mariam Nawaz to Hamza Mian and Co succession plan must be interrupted? Are strong economic indicators – and they are stronger than they were in the last government, no doubt - seen as an embellishment of the Sharif dynasty looming above and beyond 2018, a perpetual threat that will always dominate the Punjab, and thus the country?

Take that, connect it to the man accused – fairly or unfairly is not point - of being an imperious and disconnected Mughal emperor, and you have the case for a correction – an organic or outsourced balancing push, if you will - in the political power parity equation that basically screams out that in today’s Pakistan, it’s The Sharifs vs The World.

A high-ranking government insider has clearly conceded in an extensive chat: That this “all started with Musharraf”. That it was “complicated by the Geo crisis”. That this is “more about cutting the PMLN down to size and less about chopping our heads off”. And if there is change, it will be more structural and less systemic.

That’s exactly what Nawaz Sharif announced with in his address on Tuesday night: the setting up a three-member Supreme Court Commission to investigate the rigging allegations for the 2013 elections, coupled with his 33-member Electoral Reforms Committee to prepare ground for a magnificently transparent 2018 election. These full-tosses were smacked hard by Khan, who rejected the proposals as he shifted towards a new, clearer ambition: That Nawaz must go. That he trusts Chief Justice Nasir ul Mulk to investigate his allegations through an independent inquiry. And that those familiar guardians of the state, technocratic caretakers, should assume the helm till non-dynast elections are held. Pigs can fly in Bani Gala, says our PML-N insider, right back, as the Jamaatis, more a distractive sideshow than actual intermediaries, fought for their limelight in the headlines as Islamabad’s finest blocked its beautiful entry points.

But that’s a different canvas. This piece was meant to focus on what ‘they’ are thinking. Not Khan, not Sharif, no one else, but them.

They are thinking options. They are trained to plan contingencies. Thus, they are considering “Replay” versus “Rethink” versus “Reset”. The Replay would be the infamous Kakar Formula, or Kayani Long March Formula, or something in the middle. The Rethink has been charted above, in detail. The Reset, that most ambitious of options, could read like this Wikipedia summary of the Egyptian Constitution of 2014:

“The Egyptian Constitution, adopted in 2014, like the Constitution drafted under Morsi, is based on the Egyptian Constitution of 1971. The 2014 Constitution sets up a president and parliament. The president is elected to a four-year term and may serve 2 terms. The parliament may impeach the president. Under the Constitution, there is a guarantee of equality between the sexes and an absolute freedom of belief, but Islam is the state religion. The military retains the ability to appoint the national Minister of Defense for the next 8 years. Under the Constitution, political parties may not be based on “religion, race, gender or geography”. The document guarantees an absolute freedom of expression that is subject to broad exceptions.”

Sound familiar? It shouldn’t, as Egypt’s brand new Magna Carta is nothing like Pakistan’s 1973 Constitution, which, to put a very honest finger on the pulse of the powers that be, is too over-amended for some and too over-gloried for others: A “Constitution of Duress”, written in the aftermath of the traumatic geo-political amputation that was 1971, with a negligible opposition and a weakened, embarrassed army. There is a school – a small but very powerful school - in Pakistan today that considers that particular legal parchment not the supreme law of the land, but a contrived search for socialist Islam that was rigged from the very beginning, with patwaris geared to help baradris past the post, perpetually.

That’s not Imran’s Naya Pakistan. That’s not Qadri’s Green Pakistan. That’s Pakistan 2.0, which comes with armour plating and an extra magazine. That’s the “Reset”, the “Erase and Rewind” option, the highest peak visible on their radar, so far. But it’s a helluva climb, and lesser peaks seem more manageable, for now. In Siachen, they call the slow move upwards battle acclimatization. But, of course, that’s what I merely think they’re thinking.

What are ‘they’ thinking? - thenews.com.pk

 

[WishLivePak]

lhc says pti and pat cant hold laaaaang march