Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

[skybolt]

India must not sign CTBT as Pokhran II was not fully successful, says DRDO scientist

India must not sign CTBT as Pokhran II was not fully successful, says DRDO scientist


August 27th, 2009 - 12:03 pm

"New Delhi, Aug.27 (ANI): A senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II has admitted for the first time that the May 1998 nuclear tests may not have been as successful as has been projected.

K Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told the Times of India in an interview that the yield of thermonuclear explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang.

In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam said the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam also said that given this fact, India should not rush into signing the CTBT.

He emphasized the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.
The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India- US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government’s top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam’s admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line.

“This means the government has to do something. Either you don’t have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,’ said Karnad.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment.

Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.

British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT. (ANI)

 

[Khajur]

Dr Santhanam is a scientist of great repute. What he is saying is in line with western analysis at that time. A large number of fairly competent international bodies had disputed the thermonuclear bomb in 1998. If it is true and if India's H-Bomb is really a question mark, then I think it is time for a review of our test moratorium. Without the H-Bomb, India's nuclear deterent will be severely crippled. The ICBMs and SLBMs more or less mandate the use of H-bombs. Though fission warheads can also be used but it makes much more sense to use H-bomb warheads with MIRVs.

It is unwise for some non technical public servants and politicians who dont know their @$$ from their elbow, to disregard Dr Santhanam and force India to rush into CTBT. If India needs more tests to confirm its thermonuclear capabilities, it should go for more tests. India's national security comes first and fore most. India has to do what India has to do. Let the West do what it can do.

First of all ,Dr Santhanam who was never a nuclear scientist and

Unlike Dr Santhanam , Mr ex-NSA , most likely had access to the actual test yield reports and he was quoting Mr Kalam who scientific advisor & DRDO head and Dr Chidambaram the BARC head at that time, who actually conducted the nuclear tests.




Till some one from BARC raise an issue in the yield ,i would put my bet on the declared yield so far.

Dr Santhanam never said, he saw the yields himself ,but was quoting western analysis .


Some western analysis questioning the yield on the basis of Seismic reports collected by ground sensors which isnt accurate and can always vary dependending on the local terrain .

 

[jarnee]

Great.. now it will mean Pakistan has edge on India , and get prompted to attack it conventionally.
Is that the motive of this leak.. India is going US way in leaking federal secrets or misleader's ..god knows what is the intent.

If you cant harm your enemy confuse him lol

 

[pmukherjee]

A small revelation- the guy who let the cat loose amongst the pigeons, Dr. K Santhanam was/is a senior R&AW agent and going by his credentials, a master of psy-ops too!

?Colonel Srinivas? recalls N-day, Pokhran II tests- Hindustan Times

Rest I leave to the members’ interpretation

I dont understand how his having served in RAW amounts to a disqualification. The way I see it is that what he is saying is consistent with what many have said. We should not sign the NPT whatever the pressure. We should repeat the tests if we have doubts about our H-bomb capability.

 

[Tango25]

Doesn't really matter - India's arsenal consists of fission devices.

Even if the thermonuclear tests failed, they have not been weaponised therfore have no bearing on our current capability.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Woops, sorry. Meant to put the thread in Indian Defence, not WMD section.

Thread moved to correct section.

 

[Khajur]

Scientists stand on Pokhran II lacks information : Dr. Raj Baldev

New Delhi, India: August 27, 2009 – Interview by Mohan Balaji - Dr. Raj Baldev, you are a famous Cosmo Theorist, well known multiple personality being the Head of God Believers, formerly National Integration Assembly (NIA) - (World Peace Mission), on one hand, and Head of Scientific Advance Research of Universe & Life (SAROUL) on the other, I would like to seek your comments on the stand on 1998 Pokhran Test II, taken by Indian Scientist K. Santhanam, who said the test had practically fizzled out, did not produce the exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion.

Balaji: Dr. Raj Baldev, you are famous author of Two Big Bangs Created the Universe, (Formed in Eternal Space) in which you tried to reconstruct the theory of Big Bang, apart from tracing the origin of the Universe, you also drew the history of atom bomb, first experimented in Albuquerque and used in Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Since you are considered well versed in this area, I seek your comments in national interest. Please say something how you consider the stand taken by Indian scientists on Pokhran test?

Dr. Raj Baldev said: The comments given by Indian Scientist K. Santhanam on 1998 Pokhran II Nuclear tests are unfortunate, he should have avoided to create an unnecessary controversy on this vital national subject which might create a negative repercussion and go against the national interest.

Dr. Raj Baldev further said, “ Mr. K.Santhanam has perhaps not gauged the damage that he unintentionally caused to the nation. Keeping update knowledge in mind, I can safely say that Pokhran test II was absolutely successful from the point of view of the exact model that was required; the experiment was meant to get only a specific yield, which does not mean that the test was fizzled out, and this aspect might have not been known to certain scientists who were engaged in the preparations of the experiment, the issue being top secret, the services of many scientists were used but the actual design of the model was kept top secret from them.

Dr. Raj Baldev: “In this model of 1998 Pokhran II Nuclear test, the yield of thermonuclear explosion was calculatedly designed to a specific level for security reasons, and to prevent pilferage of the formula, which was later on adjusted and the entire Nuclear build up held by India became one of the world’s Ist Class categories, better sophisticated than many other countries in the world. To comment upon India’s standard of Pokhran II Nuclear test simply shows that Mr. K.Santhanam might not be belonging to the inner team of scientists who had designed the model of a certain yield for security reasons.”

Dr. Raj Baldev further said: The Defence Ministry has rightly contradicted the stand of Senior DRDO’s assertion that 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests were not fully successful, and it is absolutely justified to contradict his stand, he might not be belonging to the inner bracket of top security confident scientists, who had the actual knowledge of the model desired to be tested only with specific yield?

“The critics should not forget that India has its top secret strategy on Nuclear build up and their own perfect standard they needed, and ultimately got it, and the comments given by Mr. Santhanam seem to have lacked the update knowledge about India’s exact Nuclear Policy, its specific model with low yield, and its future use, Dr. Raj Baldev said..

Finally Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist said, “It is for the govt. and the Defence Ministry to take care of their security and also their Nuclear deterrent, which they are observing and maintaining at the top of all securities and it is considered to be one the best in the world. But so far the Indian scientific expertise on this subject is concerned, I would like to say that most of the Indian scientists are not aware how far India has made her advancement in Nuclear perfection, and I feel that Dr. Santhanam is perhaps not fully aware, what specific model the authorities wanted to be experimented with their future plan, even though he was a part of the whole mission?

“Santhanam’s suggestion that India should not rush into signing the CTBT, does not seem to be appropriate, it’s the top security issue for the govt. to decide. In short, India is well protected and is capable of taking proper care of its neighbors, still wish peaceful relations with them in the large interest of World Peace.

Dr. Raj Baldev is also the head of God Believers, who wish world peace all over and for which he has served the world in this area for over 4 decades, and now advise the critics of India not to be misled with their imperfect information.


Scientists stand on Pokhran II lacks information : Dr. Raj Baldev | World News | World Current Affairs | Current World Affairs | News | Latest News | News Today | International Reporter

 

[Gabbar]

Pokhran II successful, insists Kalam ​

Seeking to put a lid on the controversy over Pokhran II nuclear explosions, former President A P J Abdul Kalam on Thursday said the tests were successful and had generated the desired yield.

"After the test, there was a detailed review, based on the two experimental results: (i) seismic measurement close to the site and around and (ii) radioactive measurement of the material after post shot drill in the test site," Kalam said.

"From these data, it has been established by the project team that the design yield of the thermo-nuclear test has been obtained," said Kalam, who as director general of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, spearheaded the nuclear tests in 1998.

India conducted five nuclear tests on May 11 and 13, 1998 at the Pokhran range in Rajasthan which included a 45 kiloton (kt) thermonuclear device, called as hydrogen bomb in common parlance.

The other tests on May 11 included a 15 kt fission device and a 0.2 kt sub-kiloton device. The two simultaneous nuclear tests on May 13 were also in the sub-kiloton range -- 0.5 and 0.3 kt.

Kalam, also scientific adviser to the defence minister, R Chidambaram who was chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and Anil Kakodkar, then director of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, were key players in the Pokhran II nuclear tests.

 

[Khajur]

Scientist's claims on Pokhran absurd, says Chidambaram


Chidambaram, who led the team of scientists during the 1998 nuclear tests, today dismissed as "absurd" suggestions that Pokhran-II explosions did not yield the desired results.


"There is no controversy over the yield of Pokhran-II nuclear tests. The claims are absurd," Chidambaram, who was the Chairman of the Department of Atomic Energy in 1998, said.

He was reacting to former senior DRDO scientist K Santhanam's contention that Pokhran-II tests had not met the desired objective.

Santhanam said the thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb in May 1998 was of low yield and not the one that would meet the country's strategic objectives.

"If he has any new scientific data which has not been answered in the results of the test published by us, we will be happy to look into it,"
Scientist's claims on Pokhran absurd, says Chidambaram


said Chidambaram, who is currently the Principal Scientific Adviser to the Centre.

He said the results of the 1998 nuclear tests were published in great detail in international journals and it also take into account studies by several global experts.

"If he has any new scientific information which we are not aware of, it will be nice to have that data. He is a scientist, not a politician. Let him tell exactly what made him give that comment. Who are the seismologists he is referring to. We will go and look back," Chidambaram said.

http://news.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/27/chidambaram-says-scientists-claim-absurd.htm

 

[Screaming Skull]

Dr Santhanam is a scientist of great repute. What he is saying is in line with western analysis at that time. A large number of fairly competent international bodies had disputed the thermonuclear bomb in 1998. If it is true and if India's H-Bomb is really a question mark, then I think it is time for a review of our test moratorium. Without the H-Bomb, India's nuclear deterent will be severely crippled. The ICBMs and SLBMs more or less mandate the use of H-bombs. Though fission warheads can also be used but it makes much more sense to use H-bomb warheads with MIRVs.

It is unwise for some non technical public servants and politicians who dont know their @$$ from their elbow, to disregard Dr Santhanam and force India to rush into CTBT. If India needs more tests to confirm its thermonuclear capabilities, it should go for more tests. India's national security comes first and fore most. India has to do what India has to do. Let the West do what it can do.

Retired RAW man on who was on DRDO deputation making a hue & cry about thermo nuclear yeild on which he never had any cule but only quoting based on foreign Seismic reports.

One on the hand, our usual inane media putting its own spin by calling it revelation, by the nuclear scientist Dr. K Santhanam says the thermo nuclear yield was low as if he calculated them himself, with out proper crosschecking on the back ground of the man.

I dont understand how his having served in RAW amounts to a disqualification. The way I see it is that what he is saying is consistent with what many have said. We should not sign the NPT whatever the pressure. We should repeat the tests if we have doubts about our H-bomb capability.

Don’t claim to be an expert but as someone who has followed the civil & military nuclear developments of India very closely over the years, here s my take on the whole issue.

• A two stage thermonuclear device was claimed to have been tested by the GoI on 11th May 1998
• The theoretical yield was claimed to be 200kT but the design yield was limited to about 45-50kT
• The reason for limiting the yield to merely 45-50kT was attributed to the presence of villages nearby the test range. A greater yield might have contaminated the area with nuclear radiation and adversely affected the inhabitants of those villages
• Post testing the tests were claimed to be successful with the top scientists (RC for BARC & APJ for DRDO) claiming to have gathered all the necessary data for future cold tests too
• The views of these scientists were corroborated by the GoI then and even after subsequent changes in the regime the position of GoI seems to be unaltered
• Based on seismic measurements around world, scientists and researchers around the world, unaware of the tests (including the US) attributed the increased seismic activity in the region during testing to an earthquake. That perception remained until the then BJP govt came out in the open and admitted to having tested nuke devices
• Suddenly all the seismic data gathered became a treasure trove of information to determine the strength of the nuclear explosions and in turn determining the yields of the tested devices
• ‘Based on this seismic data gathered’ many non-Indian experts reported that the explosions weren’t of 45-50kT as claimed by India. This could lead to only two conclusions- 1. That the test was unsuccessful, 2. India never tested a thermonuclear device at all
• These speculations lasted only for a brief period of time as an article carried by the ‘New Scientist’ magazine completely rubbished the claims and confirmed that India had indeed tested a thermonuclear device. Here is a news report based on the claims of the New scientist

So, it was an H-Bomb after all​

India's first test at Pokhran on May 11 comprised a hydrogen bomb and the yield was closer to 60 kilotons, it has been confirmed following the release of data collected by 125 seismic stations across the world.

There had been scepticism about India's claim that it had exploded a hydrogen bomb as initial data from seismic stations had recorded only 25 kilotons.

The respected New Scientist magazine confirmed the near 60 kiloton yield and set at rest the controversy whether or not India exploded a thermonuclear device.

In Parliament, the government recently described as ''erroneous'' the conclusions that the Pokhran tests did not comprise a hydrogen bomb.

New Scientist said the tests could have had their seismic signals muffled, possibly by ''decouping'' the devices -- suspending them within caverns in the ground or burying them in sand.
In theory, ten kilotons of explosive force can be completely hidden in this way.

There could be peculiarities in Rajasthan's geology that may have weakened the signals, New Scientist says.
Sceptics say the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty will fail because secret nuclear explosions cannot always be detected. New Scientist says the recent nuclear tests by India and Pakistan appear to prove them wrong.

Before dawn on May 11, a seismograph in a research institute outside Washington DC recorded a disturbance deep in the earth on the other side of the world. Over the next few minutes, dozens of other seismographs all over the planet recorded the same event and transmitted their data automatically to the institute, the Prototype International Data Centre.

A computer analysed the signals and gave its interpretation: an ''event'' of magnitude 5.0 on the Richter Scale under Rajasthan in India. Later that morning, seismologists at the PIDC studied the signals and recognised the event as a nuclear test.

The job of the institute is to test the technology for detecting nuclear bomb tests around the world. From next year its successor, the Real International Data Centre in Vienna, will be charged with policing the CTBT, which outlaws all nuclear explosions.

Whether the RIDC can actually police the CTBT has become the subject of a fierce debate. For it emerged that the seismic monitoring network under trial by the PIDC failed to ''diagnose'' India's tests accurately.

In particular, PIDC failed to detect the second explosion, which India claims yielded between 0.2 and 0.6 kilotons.…………………

''If the Indians hadn't announced their tests, CTBT supporters would have claimed the seismic events that were recorded were natural,'' he says.

Rediff On The NeT: So, it was an H-Bomb after all

So, that brings us to the real question- why did Dr. Santhanam choose to make such a revelation about the thermonuclear test more than 11 years after the test?

Dr. Santhanam was/is a R&AW agent and his original role during the Pokhran tests was site preparation or more specifically concealment of the entire activity prior to, during and after the test itself. This means he was/is one of the most trusted foot soldier of the highest leadership of the country and the intelligence agencies.

When such is the case, will such a man go out of his way to reveal facts, of which only very few people in the country are privy to and having deep implications for national security? Highly unlikely!

I think the whole episode has to be seen in the context of the mounting pressure on India to sign the CTBT. It is absolutely ‘impossible’ for us to sign the CTBT at this stage. It is utterly discriminatory and will severely cripple our deterrence based on WMDs vis-à-vis China (which btw has tested about 45 nuke devices in total). I am sure that the Indian scientific community understands this far too well and has advised the govt against entertaining any demands by the US to sign the treaty. It is one thing to have a self imposed moratorium over testing nuclear weapons and another to adopt a binding, discriminatory, international treaty, violation of which may lead to severe consequences for the country. So, imo this whole drama is staged (skillfully one may argue), with complete complicity of the govt. which can now site internal pressure (pressure from a billion people ought to be reason enuf for Obama to understand MMS’s position) and shy away from signing the CTBT.

 

[ratolz]

What if it is a stunt to show USA that india can't sign CTBT due to domestic pressure, as everyone in country would oppose the signing of CTBT after this statement. Then its very wise move by Govt. I mean who knows what is running behind the curtains?

 

[graphican]

@New Vision;

Now you are overlooking the technical limitations. I am not a nuclear expert either but I been through a lecture by a very senior scientist. Material for Thermonuclear weapon is not the only challenge, but a successful design is what asks for most out of you. Thermonuclear weapons use Atomic bomb as their trigger. Now just imagine the 10kg of plutonium palced at a distance of couple of feet from Atomic Weapon must stay intact and still receive required energy to start thermonuclear chain process. I hope it was the design that failed in Indian test not the material. So if some design has failed, it would need redesigning right from the blue-prints and that could not be done in 2 weeks time.

But I think you can put responsibility of the failure on the people who decided to go for explosions when only one thermonuclear prototype was produced. Pakistan tested 5 (11 according to another news source) prototypes of Atomic Bombs and testing doesn't mean to "show off your capability", testing means to select the best prototype of all the available options. If India had only developed one prototype which they detonated, they could have delayed this testing 6 months or a year and test 5/6 prototypes (As 5/6 thermonuclear experiments) and attain the knowledge they needed.

I believe Thermonuclear capacity is a matter of psychological dominance. It would kill 2Lac 50 thousand people on average if an atomic bomb is detonated and infrastructure of whole city would be destroyed. Now a thermonuclear weapon might kill 5 Lac people and infrastructure of the city would still be destroyed. In war, its more important to destroy and incapacitate enemy instead of kill-every-opponent. So take a deep breath and let your Indian leaders stand with Nuclear Weapons.

By the way, when you cannot do anything about Nuclear and Thermonuclear weapon, it would be fullish of all times to tell your nation about failed experiment. No one can gain anything from it now but you as a National must have felt low. So who has gained anything with this "disclosure"?

 

[pmukherjee]

Don’t claim to be an expert but as someone who has followed the civil & military nuclear developments of India very closely over the years, here s my take on the whole issue.

Screaming Skull, Agreed.
My feelings exactly. I had come to the same conclusions regarding the timing of the whole thing. I am however of the opinion that india needs more tests to fully validate its thermonuclear capabilities. Having said that, what I dont understand is the role of the Naval Chief in all this. May be he is in the loop and his outburst is deliberately planned to add to the confusion?

 

[graphican]

@Screaming Skull

Its just the general Public in India who didn't know. Have a look at this lecture by Dr. Inam-ur-Rehman and listen what he is saying about Indian Thermonucler Weapons nearly 6 months back. (He is very humble person and you would not find him bragging or making high claims) According to Dr. Inam-ur-Rehman, Indian thermonuclear weapon had failed and he describes more about the test. He is a very humble and down-to-earth person and you would not find him make high claims or brag about anything. You would love to watch his lecture if you are looking for some insight information.

(Series of 13 videos)

 

[xebex]

20 kt bomb are not sufficient nuclear deterrents. If you want to see 'real' nuclear deterrents in the range of 10+ MT look to China-Russia-USA.

LOL. look at whom?? China??.....the most powerfull chinese nuke test only had a yield of 3Mt dude.. Compared to Russian Tsar Bomba (50Mt), its a joke. the nearest one US came up with only had a yeild of 15Mt.

So its better to say CHINA and US should look at Russia if they want to see the REAL nuclear deterrent.