American think tank accused of scare tactics to prevent massive cuts in military funding
The People's Liberation Army Air Force will be able to challenge the air superiority of the United States and its allies within five years, according to a study by a US think tank.
Based on PLA military textbooks as well as studies previously conducted in the West, the Rand Corporation report claims that the US Air Force's western Pacific bases would not remain safe from PLA attack in the event of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
It adds that the US should continue to invest in supersonic B-1 and B-2 bombers, revive some cancelled next-generation bomber programmes and enhance its longer-range stealth cruise missile capabilities to maintain its advantage in the face of rapid Chinese improvement in those areas.
Mainland military experts said the Rand study was an attempt to exaggerate the capabilities of the PLA Air Force to boost the US military budget in the middle of what US President Barack Obama has called "extreme fiscal duress".
Last month, the White House told the Pentagon to cut US$78 billion from its budget over the next five years, not counting the costs of its combat operations.
"The information the Rand study used is just our academic research and analysis based on an imaginary enemy in training, which is very different from reality," said retired PLA major general Xu Guangyu.
"The study aims to stir up the `China threat' to win the support of the US public, senators and House representatives to fight for a bigger budget for the US military."
The Rand study is called Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century. It runs to about 300 pages.
It claims China poses a serious threat thanks to its recently unveiled J-20 stealth fighter jet, and the support of the navy, land forces and the Second Artillery Corps, China's strategic missile forces.
It says China's air force was likely to have significant numbers of modern fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missiles as well as long-range early warning radar and secure data and voice communication links by 2015.
Citing Chinese military sources, the study adds that defensive operations had been abandoned as the traditional strategy of the PLA Air Force in any Taiwan Strait conflict, being replaced by a more aggressive attitude. It would make US bases in the western Pacific targets of the PLA Air Force.
"If (some) doctrinal principles of the (PLA publications) are reflected in actual training and, in the event of a conflict, in campaign and mission planning, the US could find itself engaged with an adversary air force both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to any it has fought since the end of the Cold War," said Roger Cliff, the study's lead author and a China specialist at Rand.
He added that China would become the first adversary capable of challenging the America's air supremacy since the Korean War.
"A decade ago, [the PLA Air Force] was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training. Today, it appears to be on its way to becoming a modern, highly capable air force for the 21st century."
Antony Wong Dong, president of the International Military Association in Macau, also said the study was aimed at saving the States' declining military industry amid the financial crisis.
"The report overestimated the PLA Air Force's development because it has political motivations," Wong said.
"But it's a fact that China's military capability has made a big jump in the past decade, which provides the US with a good excuse to boost its military industry, one of its key economic pillars in the past."
The People's Liberation Army Air Force will be able to challenge the air superiority of the United States and its allies within five years, according to a study by a US think tank.
Based on PLA military textbooks as well as studies previously conducted in the West, the Rand Corporation report claims that the US Air Force's western Pacific bases would not remain safe from PLA attack in the event of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
It adds that the US should continue to invest in supersonic B-1 and B-2 bombers, revive some cancelled next-generation bomber programmes and enhance its longer-range stealth cruise missile capabilities to maintain its advantage in the face of rapid Chinese improvement in those areas.
Mainland military experts said the Rand study was an attempt to exaggerate the capabilities of the PLA Air Force to boost the US military budget in the middle of what US President Barack Obama has called "extreme fiscal duress".
Last month, the White House told the Pentagon to cut US$78 billion from its budget over the next five years, not counting the costs of its combat operations.
"The information the Rand study used is just our academic research and analysis based on an imaginary enemy in training, which is very different from reality," said retired PLA major general Xu Guangyu.
"The study aims to stir up the `China threat' to win the support of the US public, senators and House representatives to fight for a bigger budget for the US military."
The Rand study is called Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century. It runs to about 300 pages.
It claims China poses a serious threat thanks to its recently unveiled J-20 stealth fighter jet, and the support of the navy, land forces and the Second Artillery Corps, China's strategic missile forces.
It says China's air force was likely to have significant numbers of modern fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missiles as well as long-range early warning radar and secure data and voice communication links by 2015.
Citing Chinese military sources, the study adds that defensive operations had been abandoned as the traditional strategy of the PLA Air Force in any Taiwan Strait conflict, being replaced by a more aggressive attitude. It would make US bases in the western Pacific targets of the PLA Air Force.
"If (some) doctrinal principles of the (PLA publications) are reflected in actual training and, in the event of a conflict, in campaign and mission planning, the US could find itself engaged with an adversary air force both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to any it has fought since the end of the Cold War," said Roger Cliff, the study's lead author and a China specialist at Rand.
He added that China would become the first adversary capable of challenging the America's air supremacy since the Korean War.
"A decade ago, [the PLA Air Force] was an antiquated service equipped almost exclusively with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs and operated by personnel with questionable training. Today, it appears to be on its way to becoming a modern, highly capable air force for the 21st century."
Antony Wong Dong, president of the International Military Association in Macau, also said the study was aimed at saving the States' declining military industry amid the financial crisis.
"The report overestimated the PLA Air Force's development because it has political motivations," Wong said.
"But it's a fact that China's military capability has made a big jump in the past decade, which provides the US with a good excuse to boost its military industry, one of its key economic pillars in the past."
