Pakistan’s Missing Market. Resuming trade with India is a chance to escape spiraling crises.

[nahtanbob]

India is not the ideal market to fetch max price and nor the hub for cheapest raw material.

It is the ideal market for cheapest transport costs unless you think someone is magically paying for those

 

[The Accountant]

IF international trade was so simple and was about transport cost only then rather than china , america's biggest trade partner would have been canada and china's biggest trade partner would have been india

 

[epebble]

Hight of stupidness. The person dont even understand the basic concept of economic growth. Economic growth generates from production efficiency and capability.

Exactly. No amount of trading will do any good without having something to sell. Importing stuff with borrowed money hasn't worked well. Producing anything requires skill and talent. First order of business is investment in human capital. Without that, there is nothing to trade.

 

[HAIDER]

Trade with India won't fix Pakistan's problems. It is way deeper than that. It is foolish not to do business with India. Of course some Pakistani see it as a sign of defeat. I cannot help them. Their country their policies.

exactly, everyone suggests short term measures. If open trade with India remaining local manufacturing will totally evaporate. Built, protect the local manufacturing, which generates massive employment and controls corruption. Otherwise, Nawaz will give all lucrative trade contracts to his family of Indian imports. It is known fact, Dar built import based economy...which has killed the local manufacturing ..

Otherwise....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573809791507611650

 

[nahtanbob]

IF international trade was so simple and was about transport cost only then rather than china , america's biggest trade partner would have been canada and china's biggest trade partner would have been india

Canada and Mexico have always been among USA top 5 trading partners. Right now they are within top 3 - China being the third

By China we mean Eastern China (The part of China that produces most stuff) not Tibet.

 

[merzifonlu]

Emotions have no place in foreign policy decisions. It has been proven across the world by many successful nations.

Examples -

Turkey - Israel
Saudi - Turkey
Saudi - Israel
China - Taiwan
China -Japan
India - China

Turkey - Greece, Turkey - Russia, Turkey - İran and list go on ...

I agree with you @VkdIndian

 

[The Accountant]

Canada and Mexico have always been among USA top 5 trading partners. Right now they are within top 3 - China being the third

By China we mean Eastern China (The part of China that produces most stuff) not Tibet.

LEts stick to the top ... not second and thrid ...

By the way even for second and tgird the reason is that canada and mexico are poor in comparison to usa so both of these countries are manufacturing hub for lower margin or labor intencise industry and altogather different scenario in which these economies r not competitor ... pakistan and india are mostly competitor and produce similar products including agriculture, textile and export of services...

MAn u have to do better than that

 

[nahtanbob]

LEts stick to the top ... not second and thrid ...

By the way even for second and tgird the reason is that canada and mexico are poor in comparison to usa so both of these countries are manufacturing hub for lower margin or labor intencise industry and altogather different scenario in which these economies r not competitor ... pakistan and india are mostly competitor and produce similar products including agriculture, textile and export of services...

Top trading partners of USA
1 Canada 307.8 357.8 665.6 -50.0 0.860
2 Mexico 276.5 384.7 661.2 -108.2 0.718
3 China 151.4 504.9 655.4 -353.5 0.299

Your point about India and Pakistan having similar products is well taken. Most countries next to each other have a good trading partnership. Pakistan's economic outlook is highly questionable if you have little trade with India, Iran and Afghanistan.

 

[HerbertPervert]

Exactly. No amount of trading will do any good without having something to sell. Importing stuff with borrowed money hasn't worked well. Producing anything requires skill and talent. First order of business is investment in human capital. Without that, there is nothing to trade.

India also had decades of protectionist policies that cultivated local industries such as steel, automotive, engineering, etc. So when Indian economy opened up to international trade, the local industries were well-established enough to handle it.

The same policies worked for China, who mandated all international investors partner up with a local Chinese partner to absorb technology transfer. That's why China preaches globalist economic policies, it's because they have benefited enormously from it.

Whereas the western economies that got swindled have brought back tariffs and IP restrictions because they got suckered by the Chinese. They too, were brainwashed by economists preaching that free trade is good for all, while the Chinese milked the hell out of it. The Chinese had the international investors create their own rivals inside China who would later compete with, stole their technology, and kicked them out when they weren't useful.

I don't think Pakistan can replicate that story. However, byy import substitution and mandating cooperation with a Pakistani company, it can definitely reduce its imports and create new local industries to reverse the damage done by Bhutto's nationalization campaign of 1970's which de-industrialized Pakistan.

They won't be manufacturing semiconductors, but indigenously designed and manufactured televisions, maybe? Normally a small economy can't force investors to such conditions, but Pakistan has a huge population and will probably add another 100 million more in 20 years. That gives a lot of negotiating power.

@The Accountant

 

[nibba]

IF international trade was so simple and was about transport cost only then rather than china , america's biggest trade partner would have been canada and china's biggest trade partner would have been india

Americas biggest trading partner is mexico. And no china and india have tibetan plateau between them. Their trade would always be east.

 

[FuturePAF]

Trading with India is short term thinking and a cop out of addressing the real issues. Pakistan is an agricultural country, with the right policies and technology it can grow its yields to be just as competitive, and fund its own farmers. Trade with India is a slippery slope to dependency and accepting Indian hegemony. For most other products, there are plenty of suppliers.

Taking the shortcuts now will be bemoaned soon enough by the same elites when their industries become even less competitive. Better to re-invest in their own enterprises and catch-up with global standards.

There is a reason protects its market when it knows it can’t compete; it’s has to maintain employment and its tax base. Equally, Pakistani elites should be taking into considerations the same compulsions. Besides, once competitive, Pakistan will be better placed to export to the region (once that FTA with the GCC kicks in) and the world.

Pakistan should not be penny wise and pound foolish.

 

[paritosh]

Pakistan doesn't have a sizeable market or anything to offer, why would India trade with their arch enemies?
Not sure if there is a business case here

 

[Maula Jatt]

IF international trade was so simple and was about transport cost only then rather than china , america's biggest trade partner would have been canada and china's biggest trade partner would have been india

But It is as simple as that...

USMCA Overview

The North American Free Trade Agreement is now the U.S. Mexico- Canada Agreement as of July 2020.

www.trade.gov

Trading with India is short term thinking and a cop out of addressing the real issues. Pakistan is an agricultural country, with the right policies and technology it can grow its yields to be just as competitive, and fund its own farmers. Trade with India is a slippery slope to dependency and accepting Indian hegemony. For most other products, there are plenty of suppliers.

Taking the shortcuts now will be bemoaned soon enough by the same elites when their industries become even less competitive. Better to re-invest in their own enterprises and catch-up with global standards.

There is a reason protects its market when it knows it can’t compete; it’s has to maintain employment and its tax base. Equally, Pakistani elites should be taking into considerations the same compulsions. Besides, once competitive, Pakistan will be better placed to export to the region (once that FTA with the GCC kicks in) and the world.

Pakistan should not be penny wise and pound foolish.

Yeah it'll increase their hegomany into our affairs
That's somewhat true unfortunately

But for other things - not really
You just put high tariffs to protect your market and only import things you don't produce/ manufacture nor are you planning to do so in the future

That's what most countries world over do

I love my people just as many as anyother Pakistani nor am I a liberal cuck

I genuinely believe it is the right thing to do from our preservative (it's not a magic bullet but if I am the finance minister it'll be "one" of the things I'd focus on to grow our economy)

 

[The Accountant]

But It is as simple as that...
View attachment 959299

USMCA Overview

The North American Free Trade Agreement is now the U.S. Mexico- Canada Agreement as of July 2020.

www.trade.gov

Yeah it'll increase their hegomany into our affairs
That's somewhat true unfortunately

But for other things - not really
You just put high tariffs to protect your market and only import things you don't produce/ manufacture nor are you planning to do so in the future

That's what most countries world over do

I love my people just as many as anyother Pakistani nor am I a liberal cuck

I genuinely believe it is the right thing to do from our preservative (it's not a magic bullet but if I am the finance minister it'll be "one" of the things I'd focus on to grow our economy)

China is biggest trading our partner also shares the border ... is india going to provide goods cheaper than china ?

Furthermore your statistics is wrong or outdated. America biggest trading partner as of today is china

 

[nahtanbob]

China is biggest trading our partner also shares the border ... is india going to provide goods cheaper than china ?

Furthermore your statistics is wrong or outdated. America biggest trading partner as of today is china

Nope

Top trading partners of USA in 2023
1 Canada $665 billion
2 Mexico $661 billion
3 China $655 billion

With decoupling the imports from China will fall to USA

You can study countries not called USA, China and India. Your problem with China is that Eastern China is far away
To minimize dependence on India you can expand trade relationships with Central Asian Republics. But that is a long story