Pakistan's Loss: A Disaster or a Blessing

[Indus Pakistan]

Not all countries with similar socio-economic development require similar level of per capita energy consumption to function. Even within developed world, there is a huge variation on per capita energy use. At first look at South Asia. In 2014-

Bangladesh-222kg
Pakistan-484kg
India-637k

So, Pakistan's energy consumption is twice of Bangladesh and for India, it is 3 times. but such level of disparity can also be seen among the G7 countries(most developed economies in the world). In 2014-

Italy-2414kg
UK-2777kg
USA-6956kg
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?end=2014&locations=US&start=1960

So, USA per capita energy use is 2-3 times of UK and Italy. For USA to match UK and Italy, you have to go back at least 100 years, not 1950s. Because even in 1960, US energy consumption was 5641 kg oil equivalent. Now it would be entirely absurd to claim that, UK and Italy's economy function similar like USA in early 1900.

There are several reason why Bangladesh's energy use per capita is less. Bangladesh's main industry, Garments is a low energy consuming industry. It requires mainly human labor. Bangladesh's private motor vehicle fleet is much smaller than India or Pakistan. In Bangladesh, private motor vehicle ownership is discouraged by imposing a very high tariff. Unlike in India, Bangladesh do not have high energy consuming heavy industries, like steel making, automobile manufacturing etc. Bangladesh electricity consumption in 2014 was much less than now. Our climate is much mild compared to many region in India or Pakistan. We do not need central heating during winter or demand of Air Conditioning in summer also less. Our temperature rarely drop below 10 degree Celsius in winter and rarely go beyond 38 degree Celsius in Summer. All these factors weigh on why Bangladesh has low per capita energy use compared to India or Pakistan.

@Black_cats @UKBengali

Very good explaination. What you touched on had been on my mind. Cars, climate, industry profile do play a role.

 

[Nilgiri]

Stagnate?
13% increase in first 9 months of this fiscal over the same period last year says something else.
Your frustration at BD economic growth will just increase.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=BD

At such low base, this is stagnation.....this is why BD is in forex stagnancy right now too.

Anyone can compare with the growth rates of countries when they had similar low base.

Bangladesh is not compounding, because RMG market is not transferring to it in any fast enough rate....and BD simply cannot develop and export anything else in any amount that matters.

@Marine Rouge

 

[Nike]

Not to mention when it comes to electricity, thats like 10 - 20%, maybe 30% (accounting for distribution losses etc) at best of the total energy that BD consumes.

Lets say its 30% for best case scenario. 30% improving means ignoring how the 70% of energy consumption is doing. Again it will be borne out by the figures in the end. I can dig up some recent figures again (I think BP has some etc), dont wanna really waste too much time on all that....but I remember last time I looked, BD was still increasing in total energy by about the same pace it has in the world bank graph (from 2009 - 2014....i.e a few kigs of oil each year more per capita).

Just like how when you get locked into the BD media and BD govt news about this and that (that gets spam posted here)....ppl ignore what the majority issues on the ground actually are.....some of them do dare to rub against the grain though (this is the real household income DECLINE in BD I was referencing):

https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/

Sometimes the more you push and focus the spearhead narrative (1% dreamy head), the more the 99% body suffers because you dump all the inflation/malaise on them....and give them few ways to cope....because they are just trying to earn a basic living out there rather than preen and posture about politician and media self-appraising waffle...but the 1% controls the narrative and whats projected out there etc...

Thus its always healthy to keep balanced perspective on such things when something sounds a bit too good to be true is what I am saying....(given I am sure you have come across and interacted with Bangaldeshis in UK and made an opinion if there is anything spark and special)



You want me to find the recent numbers and shut you up again?

He is a clown, end case. He is a nuts who said Bd as homogenous country is doing better than Indonesia or Malaysia economically, but stats figure said otherwise. They had failed infrastructure, much worse HDI level, or even much worse real gdp growth in US dollar value since 2000. Even though Bd doesnt have dozen thousands Islands spanning between the most volatile volcano and tectonic belts on earth in which every year costing us Billion US dollar from natural disaster at large scale , yet they still left behind us by wide margin.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.GSR.GNFS.CD?locations=BD

At such low base, this is stagnation.....this is why BD is in forex stagnancy right now too.

Anyone can compare with the growth rates of countries when they had similar low base.

Bangladesh is not compounding, because RMG market is not transferring to it in any fast enough rate....and BD simply cannot develop and export anything else in any amount that matters.

@Marine Rouge

Low base effect, if Nigeria depend on oil industry, Bangladesh depend on RMG industry not to mention remittance based economy of South Asia

 

[UKBengali]

He is a clown, end case. He is a nuts who said Bd as homogenous country is doing better than Indonesia or Malaysia economically, but stats figure said otherwise. They had failed infrastructure, much worse HDI level, or even much worse real gdp growth in US dollar value since 2000. Even though Bd doesnt have dozen thousands Islands spanning between the most volatile volcano and tectonic belts on earth in which every year costing us Billion US dollar from natural disaster at large scale , yet they still left behind us by wide margin.

Linking up with the resident butt-hurt now I see!

We know that the Indonesian economy went into free-fall in 1996-1997 and so need to take 1995 as a base.

Let us use 1995-2015 as per IMF stats:

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=1995&ey=2015&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=68&pr1.y=15&c=513,536&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=

So BD moved from 18% of Indonesia GDP in 1995 to 24% in 2015. This year it is 29%. As you can see the decrease in gap is accelerating now.

Infrastructure? BD is only spending 17 billion US dollars just this year alone - why do you not Google all the massive infrastructure projects that are being built as we speak?

HDI Level? Bangladesh was at 0.6 in 2017 as compared to 0.7 for Indonesia. BD in 2017 was where Indonesia was at 2000. Unlike BD, Indonesia gained independence 22 years earlier and also has vast natural resources like oil and timber and hydropower. Indonesia already has 5GW of hydro power and lots more under construction or planned.
BD has a little gas that is fast running out as a comparison.


Now BD grows at 8% a year(could hit 9% as growth is still picking up) while Indonesia is at 5% a year - catchup will continue till BD overtakes Indonesia in the 2030s and then takes aim at Malaysia.