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Political scientist Christophe Jaffrelot offers valuable insights on the recent skirmishes between Pakistan and India along the LoC and Pakistan’s changing relations with world powers.
Christophe Jaffrelot is a prominent French political scientist and an expert on South Asian politics with a particular focus on India and Pakistan. A senior research fellow at CERI-Science (centre d’Etudes et de Recherches Internationales), Paris, and the author of more than 25 books, Christophe Jaffrelot was in Karachi recently to promote his new book, The Pakistan Paradox: Instability and Resilience. He spoke to The News on Sunday and offered valuable insights on the recent skirmishes between Pakistan and India along the Line of Control (LoC) and Pakistan’s changing relations with world powers. Excerpts follow.
The News on Sunday: The Modi government is being seen as anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan and recently there has been a growing urge among the hardliner Indians to push Modi for a military adventure against Pakistan. Do you see some sort of skirmishes on the borders in the near future?
Christophe Jaffrelot: Well the skirmishes are already that have derailed the peace process of talks. About a year ago, there should have been a meeting of foreign secretaries but it was canceled. So unfortunately expectations on both sides for talks have been somewhat disappointing. But I am still hoping because it is in the interest of both sides to normalise their relations and this awareness is gaining momentum on both sides too. It is time to open a new chapter.
I don’t think there would be any escalation except if some people are interested in derailing the normalisation process, and hopefully that will not happen.
TNS: Pakistanis and Indians have a limited people-to-people contact and media outlets are largely blocked. When you travel to India, you meet a lot of people there. What is the general perception there about Pakistan?
CJ: The mutual ignorance on both sides is really painful because the way they paint each other is very similar and much exaggerated. And the mutual ignorance means that in spite of goodwill, people don’t see that the other side is very similar. The Indian and Pakistani societies have more in common than many other societies. If it was left to the people, this conflict would be very different. It would not get this acrimonious and adverse.
TNS: Army Chief General Raheel Sharif is a well respected figure in Pakistan. How do you see his role in the fight against terrorism?
CJ: Well, clearly there has been a change and this change is noticeable for the last one year when Raheel Sharif decided not to talk to TTP and fight them in Fata. So yes a few months after taking over from his predecessor, he has taken a different course. Now, does it necessarily lead to an extension, it is too early to say. What will be the balance of power between the military and civilian leadership in the future, we will have to see.
TNS: The Pakistan China Economic Corridor is a very important project for Pakistan. A common perception is that we are moving closer to China and moving away from our old friend USA. How do you see the situation?
CJ: Well that was certainly bound to happen after the withdrawal of the Nato forces from Afghanistan and the diminishing American financial aid. China has been the all weather friend which is now prepared not only to give aid but to develop the country in terms of energy, transportation and infrastructure. Of course, they will take their own share of it. Chinese are not actually giving but investing. So that was bound to happen.
Now, I am more interested in the impact of this Pakistan-China approach on the Indian scene, because as you say, the US is being replaced by China as the new friend of Pakistan. The US may turn to India and India may turn to the US. India will need some support from outside also, and where else could it find it except the US.
TNS: Recently, a contingent of Pakistani armed forces was invited to the WW II military parade in China. Do you think that was a clear message to India?
CJ: I think Indians already know too well that China is behind Pakistan, and they know it for the last 25-30 years. It is not in the interest of these countries to have any military escalation and certainly not in the interest of China. Neither India nor China will go to the battleground without thinking and re-thinking the implications.
TNS: You have discussed Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran in detail in your new book. How do you see Nawaz Sharif government keeping a balance in relations with both?
CJ: I don’t think Nawaz Sharif is in the driving seat, I don’t think the question is about what the PM wants to do, the question is more what the establishment wants to do. They were the ones who were asked to help in Yemen. So the dilemma is can Pakistan remain equidistant between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Can Pakistan develop good relations with both on different agendas i.e. energy and military cooperation?
This is a very important question that will become really topical the moment Iran is fully back in the international relations. The sanctions maybe lifted by the end of the year that will be a turning point. It will be for the Pakistanis to fine tune this. If it works fine it will open new opportunities like Iranian gas pipeline project and probably the Gwadar deep sea port when it’s fully operational. It’s not easy, it will be complicated for sure, but I am sure the Pakistani diplomats, who are the best diplomats in the region, will help and succeed.
TNS: The educated people in Pakistan, specially the youth, find a lot of hopelessness in the system and are leaving the country. What would you say to them, do you see hope that things will improve and they will return back to serve Pakistan?
CJ: Now that would be fabulous end of the story, of all the talents that have been either suppressed and exiled coming back and building a new Pakistan, and this time a really new Pakistan. The ‘New Pakistan’ was the key tagline in the 2013 elections and the 2014 dharnas, and now two years later we are nowhere close to that ‘New Pakistan’. So yes, that would be terrific, and when I see students in Karachi and other cities I am pretty hopeful because all the energy, imagination and all the openness is there.
But you know better than me because you are suffering from the system, that there are so many vested interests, there are so many corrupt actors that talent is not enough and a real social reform has to be made which must have some dimensions in terms of institutional reforms, but it’s a moral reform and for that there is nobody who can decide, it has to come from society itself.
The ball is in many different courts, of course it is in the court of leaders who are not prepared to let this energy grow, it is in the court of all those who are not participating, who are not objecting, who are just keeping quiet. The more you keep quiet, the more you suffer.
Defence News - “Pakistan’s friendship with China will push US closer to India”
We live in strange times.
