Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Weapons Infrastructure

[Nilgiri]

People, in general, have no idea about these incredibly sophisticated surveillance networks monitoring the globe.

Almost everyone also makes the basic mistake/assumption that everything is "satellite/airspace" based (and immediately give the simplistic counter for those). Look at myriad of replies here early in the thread....saying "it could just all be decoys and you wasted surveillance etc etc"....ummm basic C4I cross-correlation (using ever-expanding land and HUMINT assets ) was developed long before most here were born. In fact I remember reading a paper on just what kind of length the US went to in analysing Nike-Zeus program against simply ramping up intelligence feeds from inside Soviet heartland and real time networking with SAC etc as to which would prove more cost-effective. In the end, it was the sheer size of the USSR that tipped the balance away from this trade-off discussion envelope (and the period of detente ensued)...till it was revisited by Reagan (and we all know what happened after that).

But what exactly is the land size and strategic depth of Pakistan compared to the USSR (and say China now)?....not to mention what are the velocities the US can sustain on sensor networking/analysis compared to the counters Pakistan can develop/deploy sustainably? These are very long nuanced discussions, yet lot of jingoistic members here just wave and laugh it away....when I know they can do a lot better.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Let's go with your analogy of the two monkeys. And, thanks for a very through explanation. What you wrote makes sense but what can be done about it? What can Pakistan to do to stop being the enemy in their minds? Are these forces self-propelling at this point and it won't matter what Pak does short of jumping into the ocean? Or, will it be once India becomes more successful people won't so easily give into by a "victim" narrative? Why is Uncle Don seen as a benefactor?

Can an honest digital platform, both in Pak and India, that people can go to expose this enough to avert the game? Or, people need an honest opposition to deliver for the people? Please shed some light on how this lunacy can be averted on both sides of the border both in near term and intermediate term.

I think you should ask a selection of the reasonable members of this forum - they are easy to identify - to comment on this, and open a thread on it. For myself, this is at 7 in the morning, and it will take me till evening to reply.

 

[SQ8]

Almost everyone also makes the basic mistake/assumption that everything is "satellite/airspace" based (and immediately give the simplistic counter for those). Look at myriad of replies here early in the thread....saying "it could just all be decoys and you wasted surveillance etc etc"....ummm basic C4I cross-correlation (using ever-expanding land and HUMINT assets ) was developed long before most here were born. In fact I remember reading a paper on just what kind of length the US went to in analysing Nike-Zeus program against simply ramping up intelligence feeds from inside Soviet heartland and real time networking with SAC etc as to which would prove more cost-effective. In the end, it was the sheer size of the USSR that tipped the balance away from this trade-off discussion envelope (and the period of detente ensued)...till it was revisited by Reagan (and we all know what happened after that).

But what exactly is the land size and strategic depth of Pakistan compared to the USSR (and say China now)?....not to mention what are the velocities the US can sustain on sensor networking/analysis compared to the counters Pakistan can develop/deploy sustainably? These are very long nuanced discussions, yet lot of jingoistic members here just wave and laugh it away....when I know they can do a lot better.

Usually is a combination of Imagery and ELINT/SIGINT. The Pakistani state has cracked down on the HUMINT part by going to archaic methods as @The Deterrent as hinted but that has no impact on the other two aspects which (leaving aside a few COTS platforms that by virtue of their thorough encryption and blockchain key concepts are only the purview of bruteforce attack only.. and then who has the most supercomputers in one building? Hint: It starts with a N and ends with a A) are easy to exploit and so far the Pakistani state lags far far behind in trying to counter it.

However, the debate when it comes to actually neutralizing these weapon systems even with a combined force is of another matter and the focus will always be on the C3 aspect of it rather than the actual assets themselves.

 

[Hellfire]

There comes a point where narratives and confidence building measures become irrelevant. We are mentally prepared for that with appropriate flexibility in the doctrine.

Good for you then. Since you have declared that, have you spoken to the soldier you have on LC? In that environment? It will make a pretty interesting conversation. I have.

Doctrine is just a document until someone precipitates its execution. Instead of tagging @Arsalan you should be writing to Modi & Co.

He is tagged for a private argument which we have going for over a couple of years. Nothing to do with you. Merely to the prevalence of the general ideas which I allege and he refuses

You don't seem to know when you're getting off lightly. Just think this through: suppose it had been possible for him to 'tag' Modi!!!

Sir. I really wish I could speak about this topic, the area and the locales. Anyways, not my task to convince anyone that peace remains in best interest. I wrote my last 'Last Letter' back in Nov 2016 .... the feeling remains, surreal?

@Oscar

Thank you for dropping the charade for a brief period. Can now logout with a good takeaway from the time spent here this phase around.
regards

However, the debate when it comes to actually neutralizing these weapon systems even with a combined force is of another matter and the focus will always be on the C3 aspect of it rather than the actual assets themselves.

@Joe Shearer This remains the most relevant takeaway.

 

[SQ8]

Good for you then. Since you have declared that, have you spoken to the soldier you have on LC? In that environment? It will make a pretty interesting conversation. I have.



He is tagged for a private argument which we have going for over a couple of years. Nothing to do with you. Merely to the prevalence of the general ideas which I allege and he refuses



Sir. I really wish I could speak about this topic, the area and the locales. Anyways, not my task to convince anyone that peace remains in best interest. I wrote my last 'Last Letter' back in Nov 2016 .... the feeling remains, surreal?

@Oscar

Thank you for dropping the charade for a brief period. Can now logout with a good takeaway from the time spent here this phase around.
regards




@Joe Shearer This remains the most relevant takeaway.

An atom will split given partiuclar phyisics being met, its effects are well recorded and quantifiable with the effects of the most rudimentary and archaic weapons being horrific at best and apolcalyptic at worst. Those possesed by India and Pakistan are far.. FAR more sophisticated and destructive than those that have actually been used in anger and the lives lost then paint a much more sobering picture than any of the various links and loghorrea based arguments presenting a relatively benign picture of these weapons power.

Still, the relevant takeaway is actually the humanity of all these highly destructive systems. The human component from inception, procurement, security up to employment is the weakest element whether here or on your end.

 

[CriticalThought]

Good for you then. Since you have declared that, have you spoken to the soldier you have on LC? In that environment? It will make a pretty interesting conversation. I have.



He is tagged for a private argument which we have going for over a couple of years. Nothing to do with you. Merely to the prevalence of the general ideas which I allege and he refuses

I find it quite frustrating that your professional circumspection holds you back from commenting on the military aspect of human nuclear delivery.

 

[M.AsfandYar]

The BJP has had it. Just watch for the first course correction over the next few weeks.

I would like to know more about this sir.

 

[Viny]

For some reasons, people here have forgot how far we have moved ahead in terms of image recognition and image processing techniques. Add to it artificial intelligence and machine learning mechanisms have weaved in layers of data to not only show case the past but also possible future.

And private organizations are outsourced so many such jobs who are taking full benefit of AWS cloud infrastructure to do heavy load processing which was previously unthought off. Given that it takes ages to get pass all bureaucracy to get real computing hardwares.

 

[Hellfire]

I find it quite frustrating that your professional circumspection holds you back from commenting on the military aspect of human nuclear delivery.

Suffice to say - purely a military point of view, that contention may not be feasible or desirable for your authorities who matter. Just too many variables at play. You shall be surprised at the level of intelligence that is available, this is hardly 1% (if I have to give an approximation).

It remains, of a theoretical value at best. The recent refrain of 'army is fully supportive of IK's efforts' has some rationale, some compulsion that drives the convergence of interests of both the civil government (been for about two decades now) and the military (shift seen now) today. That, sir, is for you to research on and understand. Let me just say that things are not as hunky-dory as they are made out to be.

Let's close this here.

Will be logging out of the forum for a nice vacation.

 

[Arsalan]

@Arsalan I hope you have gone through the thread.

Not yet. Sorry. Will need a couple of days to find enough time to read it all.

 

[RescueRanger]

it seems pakistanis have nukes everywhere

What the Silly 'image analysts' like Raj47 don't know is that every single one of these seemingly innocent looking huts on the G.T. Road are in actual fact missile silos ! Look it's even being guarded by a shady looking ISI agant, wearing pathan RayBan!

 

[v9s]

I advise a secular revisionist like yourself to stay away from heresy. You are no authority on religion to even comment in the matter. The topic is dealt by authentic scholars are what I stated us the widely accepted position.

The supposed "authority on religion" of yesteryear's made Jesus a God - take of that what you will.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I would like to know more about this sir.

Just returned home dead tired. If I manage to stay above the surface, in an hour; failing which, tomorrow.

 

[PDFChamp]

I think you should ask a selection of the reasonable members of this forum - they are easy to identify - to comment on this, and open a thread on it. For myself, this is at 7 in the morning, and it will take me till evening to reply.

If you are saying Pak is guilty as well, I would not disagree but I suspect much of it is from being in a weaker position and being exploited by those who promised to help. I would still love your take on what can be done now because at this point it doesn't matter who started the fire. By that I mean, what can be done by the nobodies and not the elite, whoever they are.

"Quantity has quality all its own."

 

[Joe Shearer]

If you are saying Pak is guilty as well, I would not disagree but I suspect much of it is from being in a weaker position and being exploited by those who promised to help. I would still love your take on what can be done now because at this point it doesn't matter who started the fire. By that I mean, what can be done by the nobodies and not the elite, whoever they are.

"Quantity has quality all its own."

No, that is not what I meant; I really meant ask more than one person. I shall certainly try and stitch together an answer. I happen to agree with you, in that it is too late now to do post-mortems of the past, starting with the past of the 9th and 10th centuries AD.