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please educate the poojari who say that qatari deal is better.
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Regret to say that this video is full of misleading information and definitely made by a devout Imran Khan follower who would not hesitate to use inject incorrect figures along with some correct info in support of his demi-god.

For example, as I had been earning a very decent salary for a long time and have been filing Tax Returns every year even after retirement; I am very familiar with UK Tax Laws. The video claims that someone earning £50K pounds per year pays close to 50-60% of his income in Tax. Wrong. Here is a sample:

“If your salary is £50,000, then after tax and national insurance you will be left with £37,640. This means that after-tax you will take home £3,136.67 per month, or £723.85 per week, £144.77 per day, and your hourly rate will be £18 if you're working 40 hours per week.”



Yearly
Monthly
Weekly
Income Tax
£7,500£625£144.23
National Insurance
£4,860£405£93.46
Take home pay
£37,640£3,136.67£723.8


https://www.reed.co.uk/tax-calculator/50000

Hence total Taxes including National Insurance contributions come to about 25%, about half of what is stated in the video.
Please remember that the National Insurance contributions are paid back to you in form of the State Pension. Since I retired before 2016, my State Pension is capped at £160 per week paid over 52 weeks that means £8,320 per year. High earners retiring after 2017 can get up to £200/- per week as State Pension.

Undoubtedly it is unwise to construct high-value projects such as Metros through borrowing, however, the video fails to mention that at the end of PML_N gov't total Public debt steed at Rs 24.95 Trillion amassed over the last 70 years, but in two years PTI gov’t has added Rs 11.35-trillion to this figure with total debt increasing from 72% to 87% of the GDP.

Link to the full report.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2260534/pakistans-public-debt-soars-to-rs363tr

Kindly note that Rs4.77 trillion of the additional borrowing was for Debt Servicing, RS 3.52 trillion due to devaluation, and Rs 3- trillion due to the PTI policies. Since PML-N Gov’t borrowed Rs 6.4-trillion in 5 years, at this rate PTI borrowing would be Rs 15-trillion in 2023. Will PTI also blame the high Debt Servicing cost of debt borrowed by them on the previous gov't?

For the full report on debt, comparison please go to

https://www.dawn.com/news/1442378

Prices of essential food commodities may have come to some degree t in recent days; these still remain much higher than the pre-Nov. 2018 level. I was no great fan of either PPP or PML-N. During my lifetime, I have only seen good economic performance and governance during Ayub Khan and the Musharraf eras. Regrettably, the PTI gov’t's economic performance appears to even worse than the previous govt, Needless to comment on the state of PTI governance.

I repeat the quote from a friend who was a very high-ranking officer and now living in Islamabad. “Those people were thieves but these are incompetent.
 
Last edited:
.
Regret to say that this video is full of misleading information and definitely made by a devout Imran Khan follower who would not hesitate to use inject incorrect figures along with some correct info in support of his demi-god.

For example, as I had been earning a very decent salary for a long time and have been filing Tax Returns every year even after retirement; I am very familiar with UK Tax Laws. The video claims that someone earning £50K pounds per year pays close to 50-60% of his income in Tax. Wrong. Here is a sample:

“If your salary is £50,000, then after tax and national insurance you will be left with £37,640. This means that after-tax you will take home £3,136.67 per month, or £723.85 per week, £144.77 per day, and your hourly rate will be £18 if you're working 40 hours per week.”



Yearly
Monthly
Weekly
Income Tax
£7,500£625£144.23
National Insurance
£4,860£405£93.46
Take home pay
£37,640£3,136.67£723.8


https://www.reed.co.uk/tax-calculator/50000

Hence total Taxes including National Insurance contributions come to about 25%, about half of what is stated in the video.
Please remember that the National Insurance contributions are paid back to you in form of the State Pension. Since I retired before 2016, my State Pension is capped at £160 per week paid over 52 weeks that means £8,320 per year. High earners retiring after 2017 can get up to £200/- per week as State Pension.

Undoubtedly it is unwise to construct high-value projects such as Metros through borrowing, however, the video fails to mention that at the end of PML_N gov't total Public debt steed at Rs 24.95 Trillion amassed over the last 70 years, but in two years PTI gov’t has added Rs 11.35-trillion to this figure with total debt increasing from 72% to 87% of the GDP.

Link to the full report.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2260534/pakistans-public-debt-soars-to-rs363tr

Kindly note that Rs4.77 trillion of the additional borrowing was for Debt Servicing, RS 3.52 trillion due to devaluation, and Rs 3- trillion due to the PTI policies. Since PML-N Gov’t borrowed Rs 6.4-trillion in 5 years, at this rate PTI borrowing would be Rs 15-trillion in 2023. Will PTI also blame the high Debt Servicing cost of debt borrowed by them on the previous gov't?

For the full report on debt, comparison please go to

https://www.dawn.com/news/1442378

Prices of essential food commodities may have come to some degree t in recent days; these still remain much higher than the pre-Nov. 2018 level. I was no great fan of either PPP or PML-N. During my lifetime, I have only seen good economic performance and governance during Ayub Khan and the Musharraf eras. Regrettably, the PTI gov’t's economic performance appears to even worse than the previous govt, Needless to comment on the state of PTI governance.

I repeat the quote from a friend who was a very high-ranking officer and now living in Islamabad. “Those people were thieves but these are incompetent.

Sir sometimes the reason is very simple. One can not make sweeping statements like that.

There was a massive shortfall of revenue due to Covid last year. Almost a trillion rupees below the initial target.
Add a stimulus package of more than 1.2 trillion given to sustain the businesses, (no interest payments no late payment on installments etc on government expenses) free electricity for 3 months to all commercial connections , as well as cash incentives to poor ( 178 billion actual utilization).
Not only our Covid response in terms of smart lockdown was one of the best but also the stimulus package was extraordinary.
Take these figures into account and the answer is crystal clear. Compare to rest of the world in terms of debt accumulated during this period.

Now starting from this year we have a sustained primary surplus and complete state bank autonomy and an overall current account surplus. I feel real pain when reading such assessments in articles.

To get the true picture see the detailed stats of loans accumulated.
FY 2019 is mostly depreciation
FY 2020 is mostly Covid


FY18: 3,400bn including 1,865bn external debt. PLMN last year.
FY19: 6,500bn including 3,250 external debt. Almost double the interest payment + the depreciation factor.

When comparing these 2 years also take into consideration the net deviation in reserves.

FY20: 3,300bn including 775bn external debt. Covid factor.

FY21 (Jul-Nov): 715bn including 115bn in external debt.
( This year we have both primary surplus and Current account surplus, and majority of this amount is interest payment especially when retiring 13% bonds)
 
Last edited:
.
Sir sometimes the reason is very simple. One can not make sweeping statements like that.

There was a massive shortfall of revenue due to Covid last year. Almost a trillion rupees below the initial target.
Add a stimulus package of more than 1.2 trillion given to sustain the businesses, (no interest payments no late payment on installments etc on government expenses) free electricity for 3 months to all commercial connections , as well as cash incentives to poor ( 178 billion actual utilization).
Not only our Covid response in terms of smart lockdown was one of the best but also the stimulus package was extraordinary.
Take these figures into account and the answer is crystal clear. Compare to rest of the world in terms of debt accumulated during this period.

Now starting from this year we have a sustained primary surplus and complete state bank autonomy and an overall current account surplus. I feel real pain when reading such assessments in articles.

To get the true picture see the detailed stats of loans accumulated.
FY 2019 is mostly depreciation
FY 2020 is mostly Covid


FY18: 3,400bn including 1,865bn external debt. PLMN last year.
FY19: 6,500bn including 3,250 external debt. Almost double the interest payment + the depreciation factor.

When comparing these 2 years also take into consideration the net deviation in reserves.

FY20: 3,300bn including 775bn external debt. Covid factor.

FY21 (Jul-Nov): 715bn including 115bn in external debt.
( This year we have both primary surplus and Current account surplus, and majority of this amount is interest payment especially when retiring 13% bonds)


Honourable Patriot forever,

Any debate where rational arguments based on correct figures are used instead of emotional outbursts is always a pleasure to read. I concur with most of your post except your sentence “One cannot make sweeping statements like that.”

Kindly permit me to say why I consider the PTI government to be run by incompetent individuals. There are hundreds of instances, but I would limit myself to only a few.

IMO, providing well-run educational institutions is one of the elements of the most important tasks of the provincial government. I came across the following news item recently.

“University of Peshawar in deep financial crunch

Spokesman says no financial assistance from federal and KP govts despite repeated requests”


Link to full article:

https://nation.com.pk/29-Jan-2020/university-of-peshawar-in-deep-financial-crunch

PTI has been in power in the KPK for almost 8 years; therefore one cannot blame the previous gov’t on the state of its universities and /or the mismanagement in the construction of the Peshawar Metro project.

Nearly half of the Pakistanis living in Punjab; Law & order is essential for good governance but look at the state of Punjab Police.

PTI government changes Punjab IGP for sixth time in two years

By Staff Report, (Last Updated September 8, 202

Link to full article:

https://archive.pakistantoday.com.p...anges-punjab-igp-for-sixth-time-in-two-years/

Most laughable is the case of CCPO Omar Sheikh. may I dare to ask that if CCPO Omer Sheikh was such a valuable officer that his boss IG Glulam Dastgir had to go because of him, why Omer Sheikh himself only lasted 4 months.

Lahore CCPO Umar Sheikh removed from post

Published January 1, 2021

Link to full article:

https://www.dawn.com/news/1599061

Then there was the famous Sugar subsidy scandal.

Pakistan’s Wheat and Sugar Scandal Leaves Imran Khan Exposed

27 May 2020 Phoebe Sleet, Research Analyst, Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme

In May, the Pakistani Government released the findings of the sugar commission inquiry’s report into a scandal that has implicated a number of political and business figures, including the leaders of two political parties, as well as close political allies of Imran Khan. The report found that a “cartel” of 88 sugar mills had exported sugar during a low yield year, underpaid growers faked records and manipulated prices, which contributed to an ongoing crisis in sugar prices that began in late 2018. The increase in sugar prices generated up to 76 billion Pakistani rupees ($720 million), more than half of which went to corrupt millers.

An investigation also revealed an Rs5.35 billion ($50 million) irregularity in the wheat industry that led to four corruption references against the Sindh Food Department and flour mill owners in a related wheat scandal. A sharp rise in flour prices and flour shortages have also been a recent source of discontent in Pakistan this year.

Full story at:

https://www.futuredirections.org.au...-and-sugar-scandal-leaves-imran-khan-exposed/

You could be one of the lucky ones whose family income exceeds 4 to 5 lakh Rupees per month and thus immune to nearly doubling the prices of daily food items necessary for everyday living. I come from a run-of-mill middle-class family and except for a handful; most of my relations earn less than one lakh per month. Nearly all complain that after paying the school fees, there is barely enough left to maintain a respectable living. I know this for a fact as my brothers & I are supporting the family of my youngest brother who died young and his son & daughter are still in college. In my opinion, the huge rise in essential commodities is primarily due to having incompetent people at the helm of affairs.

The most glaring example of ineptness was the Aviation Minister Ghulam Sarwar declaring on the floor of the National Assembly that the majority of PIA pilots had fake licenses! And he is still in his post.

What you said about the economy is generally true; however, in my humble opinion, if Imran Khan had not been so anti-IMF in the beginning and Pakistan had gone in their program from the start, it is likely that Pakistani economic woes would have been less severe.

Here is what the World Bank considers Pakistan’s near tern Economic outlook.

“Pakistan’s real GDP growth is estimated to have declined from 1.9 percent in FY19 to -1.5 percent in FY20. The first contraction in decades, this reflects the effects of COVID-19 containment measures that followed monetary and fiscal tightening prior to the outbreak. To curtail the spread of the pandemic, a partial lockdown – that included restrictions on air travel, inner-city public transport, religious/social gatherings and the closure of all schools and non-essential businesses – was imposed in March, and gradually eased from May 2020 onwards. This disrupted domestic supply and demand, as businesses were unable to operate and consumers curbed expenditures, which specifically affected services and industries. The services sector is estimated to have contracted, by over 1 present, while industrial production is expected to have declined even more, due to the high policy rates prior to the pandemic and plunging domestic and global demand thereafter. The agriculture sector, partially insulated from the effects of the containment measures, is estimated to have expanded modestly over the year.

On the demand side, private consumption is estimated to have contracted in FY20, as households reduced consumption amid the lockdown and dimmer employment prospects. Similarly, with heightened uncertainty, disrupted supply chains and a global slowdown, investment is estimated to have fallen drastically. Exports and imports also shrank given weaknesses in global trade and domestic demand. In contrast, government consumption growth rose, reflecting the rollout of the fiscal stimulus package to cushion the effects of the pandemic.

Despite weak activity, consumer price inflation rose from an average of 6.8 percent in FY19 to an average of 10.7 percent in FY20, due to surging food inflation, hikes in administered energy prices, and a weaker rupee, which depreciated 13.8 percent against the U.S. dollar in FY20. With elevated inflationary pressures, the policy rate was held at 13.25 percent from July to February but was subsequently lowered to 7.0 percent over the remainder of FY20 to support dwindling activity and as inflationary expectations fell amid the pandemic. The central bank also implemented multiple measures to provide liquidity support to firms. At end-FY20, the banking system remained well capitalized, though upticks in non-performing loans were beginning to erode capital buffers.

The current account deficit shrunk from 4.8 percent of GDP in FY19 to 1.1 percent of GDP in FY20, the narrowest since FY15, driven mainly by import values falling 19.3 percent. Total export values also contracted 7.5 percent due to weak global demand. Despite the global downturn, workers’ remittances increased relative to FY19, underpinning a wider income account surplus. Meanwhile, higher net foreign direct investment, and multilateral and bilateral disbursements, more than offset a decline in portfolio flows, leading to a larger financial account surplus. The balance of payments consequently swung to a surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP in FY20, and official foreign reserves increased to US$13.7 billion at end-June 2020, sufficient to finance 3.2 months of imports.

In FY20, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 8.1 percent of GDP from 9.0 percent in FY19. Total revenues rose to 15.3 percent of GDP due to higher non-tax revenue, as the central bank and the telecommunication authority repatriated large profits. Despite reforms, tax revenues slipped to 11.6 percent of GDP, with lower economic activity and larger tax expenditures. Expenditures rose mainly due to a fiscal stimulus package valued at around 2.9 percent of GDP, while the public debt, including guaranteed debt, increased to 93.0 percent of GDP by end-FY20.

While domestic economic activity is expected to recover, as lockdown measures are lifted and base effects materialize, Pakistan’s near-term economic prospects are subdued. Significant uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic and availability of a vaccine, demand compression measures to curb imbalances, along with unfavorable external conditions, all weigh on the outlook. Economic growth is projected to remain below potential, averaging 1.3 percent for FY21-22. This baseline projection, which is highly uncertain, is predicated on the absence of significant infection flare ups or subsequent waves that would require further widespread lockdowns.

The current account deficit is expected to widen to an average of 1.5 percent of GDP over FY21-22, with imports and exports gradually picking up as domestic demand and global conditions improve. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 7.4 percent in FY22, with the resumption of fiscal consolidation and stronger revenues driven by recovering economic activity and structural reform dividends. Expenditures will remain substantial due to sizeable interest payments and defense expenditures, a rising salary and pension bill, and absorption of energy SOE guaranteed debt by the government.

There are considerable downside risks to the outlook with the most significant being a resurgence of the COVID-19 infection, triggering a new wave of global and/or domestic lockdowns and further delaying the implementation of critical IMF-EFF structural reforms (slated to resume in H1-FY21). Locust attacks and heavy monsoon rains could lead to widespread crop damage, food insecurity and inflationary pressures. Livelihoods for households dependent primarily on agriculture could also be negatively impacted. Finally, external financing risks could be compounded by difficulties in rolling-over bilateral debt from non-traditional donors and tighter international financing conditions.”
Last Updated: Oct 08, 2020
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pakistan/overview

Finally, it is an accepted fact that no corruption scandal has been associated with Imran Khan and he himself is honest. Sadly, honesty alone does not make a person suitable for the job of the Prime Minister. Imran Khan and many of his associates were totally inexperienced and are learning the art of governance by doing it. Unfortunately, a poor country like Pakistan can ill afford such experimentation.
 
.
Honourable Patriot forever,

Any debate where rational arguments based on correct figures are used instead of emotional outbursts is always a pleasure to read. I concur with most of your post except your sentence “One cannot make sweeping statements like that.”

Kindly permit me to say why I consider the PTI government to be run by incompetent individuals. There are hundreds of instances, but I would limit myself to only a few.

IMO, providing well-run educational institutions is one of the elements of the most important tasks of the provincial government. I came across the following news item recently.

“University of Peshawar in deep financial crunch

Spokesman says no financial assistance from federal and KP govts despite repeated requests”


Link to full article:

https://nation.com.pk/29-Jan-2020/university-of-peshawar-in-deep-financial-crunch

PTI has been in power in the KPK for almost 8 years; therefore one cannot blame the previous gov’t on the state of its universities and /or the mismanagement in the construction of the Peshawar Metro project.

Nearly half of the Pakistanis living in Punjab; Law & order is essential for good governance but look at the state of Punjab Police.

PTI government changes Punjab IGP for sixth time in two years

By Staff Report, (Last Updated September 8, 202

Link to full article:

https://archive.pakistantoday.com.p...anges-punjab-igp-for-sixth-time-in-two-years/

Most laughable is the case of CCPO Omar Sheikh. may I dare to ask that if CCPO Omer Sheikh was such a valuable officer that his boss IG Glulam Dastgir had to go because of him, why Omer Sheikh himself only lasted 4 months.

Lahore CCPO Umar Sheikh removed from post

Published January 1, 2021

Link to full article:

https://www.dawn.com/news/1599061

Then there was the famous Sugar subsidy scandal.

Pakistan’s Wheat and Sugar Scandal Leaves Imran Khan Exposed

27 May 2020 Phoebe Sleet, Research Analyst, Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme

In May, the Pakistani Government released the findings of the sugar commission inquiry’s report into a scandal that has implicated a number of political and business figures, including the leaders of two political parties, as well as close political allies of Imran Khan. The report found that a “cartel” of 88 sugar mills had exported sugar during a low yield year, underpaid growers faked records and manipulated prices, which contributed to an ongoing crisis in sugar prices that began in late 2018. The increase in sugar prices generated up to 76 billion Pakistani rupees ($720 million), more than half of which went to corrupt millers.

An investigation also revealed an Rs5.35 billion ($50 million) irregularity in the wheat industry that led to four corruption references against the Sindh Food Department and flour mill owners in a related wheat scandal. A sharp rise in flour prices and flour shortages have also been a recent source of discontent in Pakistan this year.

Full story at:

https://www.futuredirections.org.au...-and-sugar-scandal-leaves-imran-khan-exposed/

You could be one of the lucky ones whose family income exceeds 4 to 5 lakh Rupees per month and thus immune to nearly doubling the prices of daily food items necessary for everyday living. I come from a run-of-mill middle-class family and except for a handful; most of my relations earn less than one lakh per month. Nearly all complain that after paying the school fees, there is barely enough left to maintain a respectable living. I know this for a fact as my brothers & I are supporting the family of my youngest brother who died young and his son & daughter are still in college. In my opinion, the huge rise in essential commodities is primarily due to having incompetent people at the helm of affairs.

The most glaring example of ineptness was the Aviation Minister Ghulam Sarwar declaring on the floor of the National Assembly that the majority of PIA pilots had fake licenses! And he is still in his post.

What you said about the economy is generally true; however, in my humble opinion, if Imran Khan had not been so anti-IMF in the beginning and Pakistan had gone in their program from the start, it is likely that Pakistani economic woes would have been less severe.

Here is what the World Bank considers Pakistan’s near tern Economic outlook.

“Pakistan’s real GDP growth is estimated to have declined from 1.9 percent in FY19 to -1.5 percent in FY20. The first contraction in decades, this reflects the effects of COVID-19 containment measures that followed monetary and fiscal tightening prior to the outbreak. To curtail the spread of the pandemic, a partial lockdown – that included restrictions on air travel, inner-city public transport, religious/social gatherings and the closure of all schools and non-essential businesses – was imposed in March, and gradually eased from May 2020 onwards. This disrupted domestic supply and demand, as businesses were unable to operate and consumers curbed expenditures, which specifically affected services and industries. The services sector is estimated to have contracted, by over 1 present, while industrial production is expected to have declined even more, due to the high policy rates prior to the pandemic and plunging domestic and global demand thereafter. The agriculture sector, partially insulated from the effects of the containment measures, is estimated to have expanded modestly over the year.

On the demand side, private consumption is estimated to have contracted in FY20, as households reduced consumption amid the lockdown and dimmer employment prospects. Similarly, with heightened uncertainty, disrupted supply chains and a global slowdown, investment is estimated to have fallen drastically. Exports and imports also shrank given weaknesses in global trade and domestic demand. In contrast, government consumption growth rose, reflecting the rollout of the fiscal stimulus package to cushion the effects of the pandemic.

Despite weak activity, consumer price inflation rose from an average of 6.8 percent in FY19 to an average of 10.7 percent in FY20, due to surging food inflation, hikes in administered energy prices, and a weaker rupee, which depreciated 13.8 percent against the U.S. dollar in FY20. With elevated inflationary pressures, the policy rate was held at 13.25 percent from July to February but was subsequently lowered to 7.0 percent over the remainder of FY20 to support dwindling activity and as inflationary expectations fell amid the pandemic. The central bank also implemented multiple measures to provide liquidity support to firms. At end-FY20, the banking system remained well capitalized, though upticks in non-performing loans were beginning to erode capital buffers.

The current account deficit shrunk from 4.8 percent of GDP in FY19 to 1.1 percent of GDP in FY20, the narrowest since FY15, driven mainly by import values falling 19.3 percent. Total export values also contracted 7.5 percent due to weak global demand. Despite the global downturn, workers’ remittances increased relative to FY19, underpinning a wider income account surplus. Meanwhile, higher net foreign direct investment, and multilateral and bilateral disbursements, more than offset a decline in portfolio flows, leading to a larger financial account surplus. The balance of payments consequently swung to a surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP in FY20, and official foreign reserves increased to US$13.7 billion at end-June 2020, sufficient to finance 3.2 months of imports.

In FY20, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 8.1 percent of GDP from 9.0 percent in FY19. Total revenues rose to 15.3 percent of GDP due to higher non-tax revenue, as the central bank and the telecommunication authority repatriated large profits. Despite reforms, tax revenues slipped to 11.6 percent of GDP, with lower economic activity and larger tax expenditures. Expenditures rose mainly due to a fiscal stimulus package valued at around 2.9 percent of GDP, while the public debt, including guaranteed debt, increased to 93.0 percent of GDP by end-FY20.

While domestic economic activity is expected to recover, as lockdown measures are lifted and base effects materialize, Pakistan’s near-term economic prospects are subdued. Significant uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic and availability of a vaccine, demand compression measures to curb imbalances, along with unfavorable external conditions, all weigh on the outlook. Economic growth is projected to remain below potential, averaging 1.3 percent for FY21-22. This baseline projection, which is highly uncertain, is predicated on the absence of significant infection flare ups or subsequent waves that would require further widespread lockdowns.

The current account deficit is expected to widen to an average of 1.5 percent of GDP over FY21-22, with imports and exports gradually picking up as domestic demand and global conditions improve. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 7.4 percent in FY22, with the resumption of fiscal consolidation and stronger revenues driven by recovering economic activity and structural reform dividends. Expenditures will remain substantial due to sizeable interest payments and defense expenditures, a rising salary and pension bill, and absorption of energy SOE guaranteed debt by the government.

There are considerable downside risks to the outlook with the most significant being a resurgence of the COVID-19 infection, triggering a new wave of global and/or domestic lockdowns and further delaying the implementation of critical IMF structural reforms (slated to resume in H1-FY21). Locust attacks and heavy monsoon rains could lead to widespread crop damage, food insecurity and inflationary pressures. Livelihoods for households dependent primarily on agriculture could also be negatively impacted. Finally, external financing risks could be compounded by difficulties in rolling-over bilateral debt from non-traditional donors and tighter international financing conditions.”
Last Updated: Oct 08, 2020
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/pakistan/overview

Finally, it is an accepted fact that no corruption scandal has been associated with Imran Khan and he himself is honest. Sadly, honesty alone does not make a person suitable for the job of the Prime Minister. Imran Khan and many of his associates were totally inexperienced and are learning the art of governance by doing it. Unfortunately, a poor country like Pakistan can ill afford such experimentation.

Sir my statement 'One cannot make sweeping statement like that' is a general statement, because I strongly believe the term 'incompetent' is a political rhetoric.

In my humble view sir keeping in mind the macroeconomic environment every decision this government took was an absolute necessity. There was never a choice. The complain why the government brought the rupee to market parity or the sudden compression in imports, power and gas tariff hike. These were the main reasons of increase in CPI (consumer price index) which rippled through auto, steel, edible oil, raw materials for core industries every aspect of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) either directly or indirectly in both services and goods domain.

To answer why this extremely harsh course correction was necessary, first we need to under what circumstances we faced and how we got there. If we want to use the term INCOMPETENT sir this is a perfect scenario.

In FY 2018 we ran a CAD of $19.9b (in final months $2b a month) increasing at a rate of 36.7% YoY ($4.9b in FY2016, to $12.7b in FY 2017, to $19.9b in FY 2018 which was projected to go in high 20's in FY 2019) to maintain that 5% GDP growth. This was the factor fueling consumption (with growth in service sector as major component). The main driving force behind this exponential growth in CAD was an another devastating policy of manipulating currency. In the final months we were throwing in market $500m every month even after almost 20% devaluation by Mifta Ismael. This currency manipulation which flooded the market with goods along with fiscal injection led to high consumption which kept the inflation low while inflating GDP. Most of the debt in Plmn era incurred in these years along with drop in State Bank reserves from $18b in 2016 to $9b in 2018.

In the first 2 years of Plmn the inflation was 7.36% and 8.62% in FY 2014 and FY 2015 respectively. This was brought down artificially by above stated policy without doing any reforms, and addressing the underlying defects in economy that was driving this inflation.

When PTI government took over there was a severe liquidity crisis with rapidly depleting reserves, exponentially growing CAD, and incoming debt repayment (interest+principal). Foreign creditors were backing out citing severe macroeconomic instability. It was an imminent default. The loans we got from Saudi or UAE or China combined extended the inevitable by a hand full of months. There was no other choice but to do what was necessary no matter how painful it was.

The only alternate was default, and one even cringes at the thought of it. The hardships it would have caused. If we got out of this situation by just 11.2% inflation (at its peak in FY 2019 after we signed up for IMF program) it is comparable to getting out with just a scratch from a tiger's den.
It is not just reducing the CAD it was a reversal from an exponential growth to a surplus (this year it will range from -ve 0.5b to 1.5b). CAD is not just a number but there is an entire ecosystem built around it.

Thus is just one of the many problems left behind by previous government. Fiscal deficit, Power sector, Gas sector (first time in history in Plmn term), state owned enterprises etc.

Yes if PTI had gone to IMF, we would have gone through the harshest phase a bit earlier but it would have been much harsher, what PTI did was implement some of the adjustments in a more gradual way, like bringing the rupee to market value over a period of 1 year instead of suddenly letting it loose, this might have cost us some dollars but it avoided the shock and how economy would react, similar is the case with CAD reduction. It might have been better or for the worst if we went to the IMF in 2018 instead of 2019 (after already taken some key policy decisions) no one can say with certainty.

Sir regarding World Bank report it is old now, we have recovered a lot better than predicted in that report. Give it a few months sir IA you will see. Just to give an example the previous 1.5% growth estimate had our LSM at -ve 2.7 for the year. From July to Nov it's +ve 7.2% with the low base effect kicking in from March it will be in double digits IA.


Coming to some of the issues highlighted, they arise in every government, I will share my perspective on some of them.



Brt is ADB funded. They do have considerable checks and balances from tendering to release of funds. There were cost over runs due to design changes etc. But the scope of the project is completely different, it was designed to be an economically viable project requiring little to no subsidies.

In Punjab PTI's grip on the installed system (a hostile highly politicized) is weak that's why they are facing resistance in governance, and having Buzdar at the top does not help (someone strong at the top like JKT was needed).
This is something one can not answer in numbers and data, so some degree of political bias is natural.


3) Sugar crisis. This is not specific to PTI sir, has happened in both PPP and PLMN governments. This is a cartel. This is the first time that an inquiry was conducted and people were exposed across the board.

4) Wheat crisis. Well they blamed it on faulty data by bureaucracy and since then claim to have real time monitoring. Anyways at the end of the day the responsibility lies on government. The last part of your post is a charge sheet against PPP (wheat is still 50% more expensive in Karachi than in Lahore).
 
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Ahmed Bozai made Country Officer of Citibank Pakistan
03 Feb 2021

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KARACHI: Citi on Tuesday announced Ahmed Bozai as the new Citi Country Officer (CCO) for its business in Pakistan. As CCO, Ahmed will assume overall responsibility for driving Citi’s business in the country, and will report to Elissar Farah Antonios who has been recently appointed as the Head of Citi’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) cluster.

Until recently, Ahmed was the Chief Operating Officer for the EMEA Emerging Markets (EMEA EM) cluster based out of Dubai.

He has previously worked with Citi in Pakistan, Greece and the United Kingdom in a number of areas, including Corporate Banking, Treasury & Trade Solutions, and Operations & Technology.

“I am delighted to return to Pakistan after almost twenty years, and particularly excited with this opportunity to lead Citi’s franchise,” commented Ahmed on his appointment.

“Together with the Citi Pakistan team, we will continue to provide the highest standards of innovation and banking solutions to our clients and fulfil our role as an active member of the Pakistani banking community.”

Atiq Rehman, CEO - Citi EMEA EM cluster, said: “Ahmed’s diverse international experience and his knowledge of our Pakistan operations will be of great value to our clients in Pakistan.

As we celebrate our 60th anniversary in the country this year, we are confident that under Ahmed’s leadership the franchise will continue to flourish and support the needs of our local and global clients.”—PR
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021

 
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Vitol Bahrain offers lowest LNG rates for April delivery

KARACHI: Vitol Bahrain has offered the lowest rates for supply of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Pakistan in April, it was learnt on Thursday.
Pakistan LNG Terminal (PLL) issued the tenders for LNG delivery in April 2021. PLL has received lower bids for two LNG cargoes for April in the range of 10.89 percent to 11.05 percent of Brent against the tender that closed on February 4.
With Brent trading at $58.77/barrel, cargo for April 5-6 delivery is priced at $6.49/million metric British thermal unit (MMBtu) – 11.05 percent of Brent, and delivery for April 19-20 is priced at $6.4/mmbtu –10.89 percent of Brent. Four traders submitted the bids including QP Trading, Vitol Bahrain, POSCO International Corporation and PetroChina International. PLL received considerably lower bids for three LNG cargoes for March in the range of 12.7 percent to 13.6 percent of Brent against the tender that closed on January 26. Government issued a tender to import 280,000 cubic meters of liquefied natural gas in December last for delivery in April from the spot market, acting promptly after a cold-shoulder response to the delayed tenders for January cargoes. PLL, a subsidiary of Government Holdings (Pvt) Limited, floated the tender to import 140,000 cubic meters each of LNG. An advertisement by PLL said the country is seeking cargoes – each of 140,000 cubic metres in two delivery windows. January 29 is the deadline for submission of bids. The first LNG cargo will be delivered on April 6 and second on April 19-20 on a delivered ex-ship basis, according to the PLL. In mid of November, PLL had invited bids for six LNG cargoes for delivery in January. It didn’t get a single bid for three cargoes to be delivered in the first half of January and was offered highest price for the second half of the month.
PLL received these all-time highest bids up to 32.48 percent of Brent crude. The lowest bids for the delivery windows of February 2021 were nearly at 21 percent to 23 percent of Brent, as received by the PLL on December 28. The gap in demand and supply of gas is expected to spiral beyond two billion cubic feet per day owing to rapid urbanisation, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, and industrial growth. “The ongoing gas crisis and much propagated mismanagement in LNG procurement warrant urgent commercial import of LNG by private parties. Government needs to remove all the hurdles and fast track regulatory formalities to enable smooth commercial import of LNG,” an industry official said. LNG imports by private parties would ensure sufficient supplies as well as relax state entities of cumbersome computations of demand forecasts and arranging spot purchases. A number of business houses and trade associations such as compressed natural gas associations are eager to import their own gas once the bureaucratic hurdles are removed.
Meanwhile, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority determined the distribution price of RLNG through Sui Northern system at $9.61/mmbtu, and $9.357/mmbtu for distribution of RLNG through Sui Southern system.


 
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My suggestion for Pakistan is as follows.

1) Invest massively in quality primary and secondary education.
2) Invest heavily in Solar Power and water conservation.
3) Invest heavily in agriculture, animal husbandry and textile to generate massive employment.

Once this is done, work out other priority.
 
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Inve
My suggestion for Pakistan is as follows.

1) Invest massively in quality primary and secondary education.
2) Invest heavily in Solar Power and water conservation.
3) Invest heavily in agriculture, animal husbandry and textile to generate massive employment.

Once this is done, work out other priority.
Invest in people most importantly. Education and development of masses is the key
 
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I had the impression Mifta was a decent person but he turned out to be a liar and propagandist. Extremely shameful given he is from 'memon baradri'.

Bro do you have any news regarding a new long term contract with Qatar? Is it just rumors or is something going on?

Hi,

There's an opportunity of a term deal for atleast 1cargo/ month (PSO) but I have heard of some talks are going on for 2 cargoes/month too (a 5 year contract). Qatar is trying hard to get that, it is evident from their recent interest in our spot purchases. Usually Qatar is not too keen on supplying for spot purchases. Socar is another one trying pretty hard, but it will be extremely difficult for them to beat Qatar's prices. For Pakistan, as long as the price is around 10-10.5%, the deal should be good, regardless of the supplier.

Qatar also quoted lowest price for April's delivery (10.025%) today for PLL.
 
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