Rupee miseries continue, outlook remains gloomy
KARACHI:
For the first time in history, the rupee slumped to 91.20 against the dollar during intra-day trade in the Open Market on Friday as sentiment weakened due to upcoming debt and oil repayments and concerns about the country’s economy.
Analysts say the local currency is all set to slide further due to growing pressure on external account amid poor inflow of funds from multilateral and bilateral donors as well as declining foreign investment.
At the interbank market, the rupee shed Rs0.25 to finish at a new low of Rs90.68 against the greenback.
The rupee has shed 45 percent value against the dollar under the current Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government rule spanning over three years and nine months. Weak economic condition and foreign debt repayment pressure has jacked up the dollar value from
Rs62.57 in April 2008 to a historic high of Rs90.68 on January 6, 2012.
“The savings of the common man has lost value due to high oil and other commodity prices,” said Ahsan Mehanti at Arif Habib Corporation Limited.
As Pakistan’s imports have inclined, rupee climbed up by 21.79 percent to Rs1.6 trillion during July-November 2011 as against Rs1.3 trillion in the corresponding period last year.
The major impact was seen due to the import of petroleum products, as its imports surged by 50 percent to Rs546 billion in first five months of current fiscal year as against Rs363 billion in the corresponding months last year.
“Though the price of oil in international market is stable, the government raised the price locally due to the depreciation of rupee,” said Sayem Ali, analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
“The fall of rupee also inflated the prices of the daily items but it has not been reflected in inflation because of the rebasing the Consumer Price Index (CPI),” said Mehanti. The persistent decline in local currency value would pressurise inflation figures, which is estimated at 12 percent for the current fiscal year, he added.
According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data the annual average of exchange rate climbed up on a higher pace during 2007/08 to 2009/10. The annual average exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar was 62.54 in FY08 and it rose to 83.80 in FY10.
The local currency shed around Rs4 to a dollar soon after the formation of the new government. The average rupee value was at 62.578 to a dollar in January-March 2008, which came down to 66.137 in the next quarter. The rupee further depreciated in FY09 to an annual average of 78.49 to a dollar and 83.80 in FY10, according to the central bank.
In FY11, the rupee depreciation has continued as the dollar hit an all-time high of 86.32 against the rupee in October. Analysts said that the fall in the rupee value during the period was due to the lack of investors’ confidence on the political system and global recession.
In FY12 the rupee again declined sharply as it lost Rs4.67 or 5.43 percent against dollar since July 01. Analysts attributed the fresh fall to concerns over IMF repayment scheduled from February this year.
Analysts said that slowdown in private capital flows and aid inflows from the US government and multilateral institutions have increased pressure on the rupee. “
Further correction is expected in 2012, and exchange rate forecasts expect it to stay at around 94 by end this fiscal year,” Ali said. In amidst of rupee depreciation it would be difficult scenario for the government to retire the IMF loan and maintain foreign exchange reserves position. The foreign exchange reserved declined to $16.91 billion by December-end from the highest level of $18.31 billion on July 30, 2011.
The reserves position will also come under pressure during current fiscal year because of higher external debt repayments, including repayments to the IMF of $1.2 billion.
Total debt repayments are a hefty $4.2 billion in FY12, and could rise to $5 billion in FY13. Pakistan’s current account deficit widened to $2.1 billion during July- November 2011 from $589 million in the same period last year.
This was mainly caused by a sharp drop in commodity prices, with Pakistan’s exports heavily concentrated in cotton and textile products, said Sayem Ali. “In FY12, export receipts to decline by 5 percent to $24.2 billion from $25.5 billion in FY11” he added.
However, expansionary fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy are leading to higher import demand. Pakistan’s external vulnerabilities arise mainly from the growing demand for energy; the oil bill rose sharply by 50 during July-November owing to rising prices and growing reliance on oil imports to meet energy demand.