Pakistani Rupee rises further against US dollar in open and interbank Markets

[Rasengan]

@Rasengan @ps3linux .. Looks like you were Spot on about the Hedge Funds and then the Rupee actually 'Appreciating'. This is just so F* up. IK government doing a Nawaz Sharif style corruption to the people of Pakistan.

Also, @blueazure ... this would be interesting for you.

The chart always provides a clue on what will happen to price. I am not an expert in fundamental analysis so I don't know what the exact implications will be for the economy. I choose to ignore the fundamentals because its terrible at timing market reversals. When you trade dozens of pairs I don't find it practical. But that doesn't mean some other people can't find it useful. A good barometer is to look at the KSE 100. The stock market according to Elliot was a leading indicator in describing the health of the economy. Another good example to judge the state of the economy is to apply Wyckoff Wave which is a weighted index consisting of 12 stocks that are leaders in their perspective industries. This requires software and a dedication to understand how to interpret the chart which is mentioned in his book (Price, Time, Volume, Activity).

 

[ARMalik]

Care to explain what corruption IK government is doing like Sharifs!!

There are other threads which you need to read first as this is just a continuation. Don't want to go into too much details as you wouldn't understand as you are not in the loop. But in a few words - Bond/treasury market and Currency manipulation to help overseas hedge fund make an absolute killing, and in the process have adverse impact on the economy.

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

Oil on deferred payments, loans and decrease in CPEC heavy machinery import.
All r the reasons for stability.

 

[crankthatskunk]

There are other threads which you need to read first as this is just a continuation. Don't want to go into too much details as you wouldn't understand as you are not in the loop. But in a few words - Bond/treasury market and Currency manipulation to help overseas hedge fund make an absolute killing, and in the process have adverse impact on the economy.

Well, to start with I understand markets a little.
No to tell you the truth a lot.
No no, better than lot.

Try me again.

If anything, the people make killings in options, which is mostly driven on speculations.
What IK is trying to do is to stabilize rupee.
Or you prefer approach of Corrupt thug Dar who purposefully pinged back the rupee artificially by obtaining dollar loans on high interest rates!!
The evil which PTI is trying to mend. Do you know how many billions of such loans re-paid by PTI government in last 1 1/2 year!!

 

[Syed1.]

All metrics of the economy are improving and that is why we see certain people getting their panties in a twist. The biggest challenge facing the PTI government is double digit inflation majority of which is due to the cartels and mafia purposely jacking up the prices. IK needs to come down on them hard if he wants the population to vote for him again, otherwise jahil quam will re-elect those who have raped the country for four decades

 

[ARMalik]

Well, to start with I understand markets a little.
No to tell you the truth a lot.
No no, better than lot.

Try me again.

If anything, the people make killings in options, which is mostly driven on speculations.
What IK is trying to do is to stabilize rupee.
Or you prefer approach of Corrupt thug Dar who purposefully pinged back the rupee artificially by obtaining dollar loans on high interest rates!!
The evil which PTI is trying to mend. Do you know how many billions of such loans re-paid by PTI government in last 1 1/2 year!!

IK may have the right intention but he is being taken for a ride left, right and centre, and I highly doubt he understands the complex financial markets no matter how intelligent and sincere he is. "Stabilization" of rupee is a double edged sword. Anyways, here are the links you can go through and update yourself.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ten-million-jobs-or-hot-money.650304/#post-12031791

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-burn-of-hot-money.649660/page-2#post-12024914

 

[shah_123]

and than one day rupee suddenly depreciates 3.70 in just three days ---- imports are already low due to coronavirus effects, oil prices are all time low+ we have deferred payment facility.

so what's going on, probably hot money flying away?

 

[volatile]

The impact what ever people could have received due to price decrease in oil price will be adjusted by Dollar price appreciation .The question mark arises on Raza Baqir and his role in SBP as his goal is to bring hot money at higher inflation rate and if oil decreases the Inflation has to come down resulting in KIBOR rate adjustment as well ,some thing is not correct here

 

[ps3linux]

IK may have the right intention but he is being taken for a ride left, right and centre, and I highly doubt he understands the complex financial markets no matter how intelligent and sincere he is. "Stabilization" of rupee is a double edged sword. Anyways, here are the links you can go through and update yourself.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ten-million-jobs-or-hot-money.650304/#post-12031791

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-burn-of-hot-money.649660/page-2#post-12024914

Bhai this is the irony, of the all the rulers in my life time I know only about Benazir who was fond of reading, she would go through all English newspapers during breakfast. If she found anything interesting she would instruct her secretarial staff to cut it and file it in a special file she always kept with her. All columns where her Govt, its performance, its ministers were referred urdu or English she used to read it during her travelling and free time. Urdu columns were translated for her.

Met her, at her request as a private banker in 2005, she was one sharp and savy lady, unfortunate for her marriage and subsequent troubles ending her life eventually.

IK is no exception he doesn't read, he doesn't keep himself updated with current affairs, he has surrounded himself with cronies who do not have his best interest at heart and he is learning hard lessons about this (through wheat and sugar crisis), he himself is not a bad guy I know for sure he does want to improve the lives of masses. Unfortunately as much I want to give him handicap I cannot deny this is the team he chose himself he should have been a better judge of character. His performance in the international arena is being dragged down due to poor show in the domestic circuit.

I already mentioned somewhere it is a sad thing to see we have always been bestowed with covert/overt agents of IMF and international donors. They are so brainwashed by their master that they fail to understand this pet formula of increasing interest rate/decreasing imports/ reduction in defense and PSDP/ abolish all subsidies/increase price of utilities like gas/water and electricity/massive devaluation of currency might be an excellent recipe for countries with large industrial base, but for countries with small industrial output it is a recipe for disaster. This formula has always failed for developing (read under developed) countries.

It is always a domino effect devalue currency massively, OK it was high time but imports will become expensive OK so far, essential imports like raw materiel will expensive, medicine will get expensive; fuel will get expensive so what since no subsidy pass on the price, transportation will become expensive, pass on the price to the end user in every case.
Increase the interest rate, cost of doing business increases for small borrowers who borrow between 1 - 5 million called as SME, our major business is focused around SME; bank lend at 3MK+3-6% which comes around between 16.5%-19.5% and earning this much profit from an SME well the businessman will only be paying interest, what is does is either settle the credit line or default. Purchases only essential items and passes on the price to the end user.
Increasing utilities cost, already higher due to import dependence, coupled with increased transportation costs, remember all these utility companies are heavily leveraged mean they have massive borrowing from the banks, when the price is passed on to the end user the price increases beyond paying capacity no winder poor start committing suicide and business start going out of operation and circular debt soaring to almost 2 trillion rupees.

Govt is the largest economic powerhouse and economic activity generation machine cut in PSDP no job creation, no off take of cement, steel, allied industries, No economic activity by the largest player hell no tax collection.

Then people wonder why the inflation is increasing, these IMF agents play innocent as to why inflation is increasing, for them its just a number.

I have just tried to correlate few results of the decisions taken by these IMF agents.

Speak with any economist despite increasing the tax base, despite increasing the petroleum levy many times the tax collection is low and getting lower in way that it will miss the annual targets by almost 20%. In modern economy its a complex equation if you increase the variables at one side of the equation the variables on the other side don't just automatically adjust to balance the equation.

Many complex calculations are required, many probability theories need to evaluated before coming to the final result with risk managed in the optimum way, that is how we financial planners work why should it be any different for economic managers of the country.

The day IK decides to start giving relief to the masses like reduction in utilities and petrol prices they will first delay the action as much as they could drag but when IK will finally put his foot down they will either distance themselves from IK and even resign just so that their masters don't get angry with them.

If we are to ever get out of this mess we need to understand as a nation that paying tax is our national responsibility, and we need to develop a home grown solution to revive and develop the economy. Not this hot money crap/trap.

 

[wali87]

All metrics of the economy are improving and that is why we see certain people getting their panties in a twist. The biggest challenge facing the PTI government is double digit inflation majority of which is due to the cartels and mafia purposely jacking up the prices. IK needs to come down on them hard if he wants the population to vote for him again, otherwise jahil quam will re-elect those who have raped the country for four decades

Which Pakistan are you living in if you actually are? Must be in the vicinity of Cantt or the prime minister house, where you don’t have to spend yourself, work yourself or buy food yourself. Or maybe outside pakistan. What damn metrics? Every single thing is getting increasingly expensive and your talking about metrics improving here. Only fooling yourself buddy. As for ‘jaahil’ qaoum, they seemed to have been fooled again. The country is being raped today worse than it was in the last 70 years. Wake up! Else this youthia mindset will soon start getting labelled as the new Patwari mindset.
gdp growth 1.8% from 5.8%
Inflation rate bloody 14.9% from 4.8%
Interest rate 16%
Electric and gas up by 230%!
Sugar crisis spear headed by Jahangir Tareen. We all know that is. Made Billions. Thats Just one example

Bhai ya toh aap Pakistan nai rehtay or you’ve gone blind deaf and dumb towards everything and anything negative towards pti. I voted for Asad Umar but I’m not a blind animal like follower like the rest of you. Allah ne akal di hai use it. Don’t worship people, especially after you ve seen what they can do.

Our Prophet has a saying, sunni sunnai baaaton ko baghair tasdeeq ke agay karna na qabl e maafi gunna Hota hai. That’s something majority of you here don’t think about.

 

[shah_123]

Bhai

I already mentioned somewhere it is a sad thing to see we have always been bestowed with covert/overt agents of IMF and international donors.


The day IK decides to start giving relief to the masses like reduction in utilities and petrol prices they will first delay the action as much as they could drag but when IK will finally put his foot down they will either distance themselves from IK and even resign just so that their masters don't get angry with them.

Janab! let's be clear, they are traitors -- I never had any doubts that most of our ruling class are traitors.

And the day IK start giving relief,
kon na Mar jaey is Sadgi par ........
O din dubba jadon kori charey Aa kubba.

I appreciate your optimism, but relief for common man will not come through present system. (IK is just another dummy in the system)

 

[ARMalik]

Bhai this is the irony, of the all the rulers in my life time I know only about Benazir who was fond of reading, she would go through all English newspapers during breakfast. If she found anything interesting she would instruct her secretarial staff to cut it and file it in a special file she always kept with her. All columns where her Govt, its performance, its ministers were referred urdu or English she used to read it during her travelling and free time. Urdu columns were translated for her.

Met her, at her request as a private banker in 2005, she was one sharp and savy lady, unfortunate for her marriage and subsequent troubles ending her life eventually.

IK is no exception he doesn't read, he doesn't keep himself updated with current affairs, he has surrounded himself with cronies who do not have his best interest at heart and he is learning hard lessons about this (through wheat and sugar crisis), he himself is not a bad guy I know for sure he does want to improve the lives of masses. Unfortunately as much I want to give him handicap I cannot deny this is the team he chose himself he should have been a better judge of character. His performance in the international arena is being dragged down due to poor show in the domestic circuit.

I already mentioned somewhere it is a sad thing to see we have always been bestowed with covert/overt agents of IMF and international donors. They are so brainwashed by their master that they fail to understand this pet formula of increasing interest rate/decreasing imports/ reduction in defense and PSDP/ abolish all subsidies/increase price of utilities like gas/water and electricity/massive devaluation of currency might be an excellent recipe for countries with large industrial base, but for countries with small industrial output it is a recipe for disaster. This formula has always failed for developing (read under developed) countries.

It is always a domino effect devalue currency massively, OK it was high time but imports will become expensive OK so far, essential imports like raw materiel will expensive, medicine will get expensive; fuel will get expensive so what since no subsidy pass on the price, transportation will become expensive, pass on the price to the end user in every case.
Increase the interest rate, cost of doing business increases for small borrowers who borrow between 1 - 5 million called as SME, our major business is focused around SME; bank lend at 3MK+3-6% which comes around between 16.5%-19.5% and earning this much profit from an SME well the businessman will only be paying interest, what is does is either settle the credit line or default. Purchases only essential items and passes on the price to the end user.
Increasing utilities cost, already higher due to import dependence, coupled with increased transportation costs, remember all these utility companies are heavily leveraged mean they have massive borrowing from the banks, when the price is passed on to the end user the price increases beyond paying capacity no winder poor start committing suicide and business start going out of operation and circular debt soaring to almost 2 trillion rupees.

Govt is the largest economic powerhouse and economic activity generation machine cut in PSDP no job creation, no off take of cement, steel, allied industries, No economic activity by the largest player hell no tax collection.

Then people wonder why the inflation is increasing, these IMF agents play innocent as to why inflation is increasing, for them its just a number.

I have just tried to correlate few results of the decisions taken by these IMF agents.

Speak with any economist despite increasing the tax base, despite increasing the petroleum levy many times the tax collection is low and getting lower in way that it will miss the annual targets by almost 20%. In modern economy its a complex equation if you increase the variables at one side of the equation the variables on the other side don't just automatically adjust to balance the equation.

Many complex calculations are required, many probability theories need to evaluated before coming to the final result with risk managed in the optimum way, that is how we financial planners work why should it be any different for economic managers of the country.

The day IK decides to start giving relief to the masses like reduction in utilities and petrol prices they will first delay the action as much as they could drag but when IK will finally put his foot down they will either distance themselves from IK and even resign just so that their masters don't get angry with them.

If we are to ever get out of this mess we need to understand as a nation that paying tax is our national responsibility, and we need to develop a home grown solution to revive and develop the economy. Not this hot money crap/trap.

A very sane post as always - thanks mate.

 

[ps3linux]

A very sane post as always - thanks mate.

From what I heard is that there is rapid flight of hot money not just because of the anticipated decrease in the interest rates, but corona virus as well. Global financial markets are in a downward spiral. Almost 900 million plus dollars from the hot money have been encahsed.

This is putting strain on exchange rates.

 

[ejaz007]

Hot money gone cold.

Rupee depreciates by 2 rupees and no one bothers. It appreciates slightly and we have threads celebrating the same.

 

[Armchair]

Really dumb to see comments about government corruption with conspiracies. PDF should have educated you better.

Currencies fluctuate up and down in open market trading. This is the norm. Pak economy is doing well so there may be a tendency for the rupee to appreciate.

Really disappointed with the quality of PDF, going down with dumb people that refuse to learn and improve themselves.