Pakistani Indian showdown inevitable in Afghanistan?

[Awesome]

In a Post 2011 scenario would we see India moving in troops or at least military hardware to Afghanistan?

I think the United States would allow Indian troops to move into Afghanistan and then start withdrawal under the guise of Indian troops managing operations against the Taliban.

The Daily Mail - Daily News from Pakistan - Newspaper from Pakistan

The sources also say that the Indian military officials assess that the US/ NATO pullout would be gradual and Afghan National Army units would be asked to take over charge of areas sector by sector. India is involved in training ANA officers in India but quiet proposals have been floated for the deployment of Indian instructors in Afghanistan for the Afghan army.

fullstory

The visit comes in the wake of the US announcing "a surge and exit policy" beginning 2011 for Afghanistan, which has witnessed the war on terror against al-Qeada and the Taliban for over eight years following the 9/11 terror attacks.

Now for a look at how the Indians are thinking...

The Hindu : Opinion / Editorial : The Afghan quandary

Monday’s brazen attack by the Taliban in the heart of Kabul and the manner in which they were repulsed underline two contradictory aspects of the present state of affairs in Afghanistan. First, Islamist extremists maintain the capacity to mount major operations against the Hamid Karzai government not just in outlying areas of the country but in the capital city too. Second, the Afghan security forces are more than capable of defending themselves against the Taliban provided they have the necessary training, equipment and leadership.

India being left out of the mix? I think not! India is not only wriggling itself and its army into Afghanistan but is even in on the whole peace deals with the Taliban.

India softens stand on negotiating with Taliban | Reuters

India is willing to back efforts to seek peace with Taliban to stabilise Afghanistan, foreign minister S.M. Krishna said, indicating a softening of stand towards a group known to be close to rival Pakistan.

"We are willing to give it a try," Krishna told the Times of India in an interview published on Saturday.

"If the Taliban meets the three conditions put forward -- acceptance of the Afghan constitution, severing connections with al Qaeda and other terrorist groups and renunciation of violence, and are accepted in the mainstream of Afghan politics and society, we could do business."

AFP: India 'could do business' with Taliban: reports

The Economic Times quoted Krishna as saying the Taliban "should be given a second chance" and that military action was not the only way to counter their activity.

Krishna's comments follow a major international conference in London this week where nearly 70 countries backed a 500-million-dollar Afghan government drive to tempt fighters to give up their weapons in exchange for jobs and other incentives.

Its a dangerous situation for Pakistan, with a lot of players speaking in hushed tones and lots of nods and winks going around.

Pakistani strategists better be doing their homework, its enemies are surely busy at it.

 

[Gazzi]

Problem you got Asim, is that India is not the US.

It may wish it was but its not, The Taliban will have a field day with India and the ISI along with the PA will not be very secret in arming them against a common foe. I would fully support turning Afghanistan into a graveyward for India f they arrive, but India is a bit smarter then that, and having seen that the world superpower cannot tame Afghanistan, I think the Indian leadership will be very very wary of any adventures where the borders don't touch India and withdrawal at desparate times becomes impossible and histry has shown that any foreign troops are most vulnerable, and taken much more casualties when withdrawing and the Taliban will have mastered the art by then.

 

[Awesome]

I would fully support turning Afghanistan into a graveyward for India f they arrive, but India is a bit smarter then that, and having seen that the world superpower cannot tame Afghanistan, I think the Indian leadership will be very very wary of any adventures where the borders don't touch India and withdrawal at desparate times becomes impossible.

Another thing would be to draw India into a long, bloody and expensive war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. India has been desperately trying to surround Pakistan, it initially would've gone with the Iranian, AF base option, but putting military in Iran in todays world would draw flak from the US.

As we've seen, the Taliban are unbeatable by COIN operations you need to establish massive control and put in massive resources to Taliban proof Afghanistan. India often boasts around in articles that they have the most experience with COIN.

The idea from Pakistan SHOULD be to hit Indian intelligence operations within Afghanistan as soon as we can. So that Indian strategy in Afghanistan shifts from simple hit and run against Pakistan to formally maintaining a military presence in Afghanistan. This allows for a see-able and quantifiable target for us and only then would we have a chance for that "Indian graveyard" scenario you're talking about.

 

[Gazzi]

I agree, bleed them slowly, this would definately drain their resources which could be diverted elsewhere, and if India really wants to make an impact, then it will need hundreds of thousands of troops. Feeding, clothing, arming them is not cheap, and Afghanistan is vast. PA could have a field day with them and India would be desparate for a way out, sooner or later, as Afghanistan is not a Kashmir, it is a world of hurt and pain for Indians.

Only issue with me is trusting the Taliban. As long as the TTP or AQ are not involved, there recent attacks on Pakistani civilians is an act that cannot be forgotten nor ignored and shows open treachery and someone PA can never turn their backs on.

I am aware that RAW has worked hard with the TTP which is why the Afghan Taliban have previously attacked the TTP for their actions and believe them to be Khawarij.

 

[Awesome]

I see Nato staying around playing referee in support of Indians though. I wonder how we'll tackle that when it happens.

 

[Hulk]

The problem you all got is that you are speculating something which is opposite to India's stand. We are not sending troops and that is final.
This is being repeated n number of times.

 

[third eye]

While the concern is understandable, India will weigh its options. The IPKF showed how quickly things can go wrong.

The ' full story' was actually not even half the story. Given the Indian presence in Af its natural for ppl of various level to visit Af. As rgds Indian military presence in Af,if India is unwilling to take a chance of Iranian gas passing thru Pk why should anyone feel India will expose itself by placing troops on the ground - and to what avail ? In any case, heat is not generated by what is inside the cauldron but from the outside.

In fact if things get worse after a suggested US / EU pullout may suit India . I do not feel it is a dangerous situation for Pk either as suggested. But it would suit Pk to keep things on the boil in Af as it serves to justify its relevance & that of a large No of its Mily/ Political wings not to mention the $ coming in and the strategic depth .

Lastly, it would serve Pk & the region best if peace & stability were to prevail in Af ,

 

[Gazzi]

From experience with NATO myself, they will be nothing more then a base command for the Indian troops, Intelligence will be theirs, as they have the technology and they will most likely station themselves in the remote deserts or in bunkers but get the Indians on the ground. This is a normal tactic, as Indians will be expendable. This is a western style of thinking anyway.

They will provide air support as NATO will know that Pakistan will only go so far, allowing Indian fighters in Afghanistan will be a diplomatic and strategic disaster for Nato.

Nato will go on as they are now, they just want presence, as they are now, they now being killed off and bogged down, but know they are powerless as they have done everything they physically could. When the Indians get killed, believe me Afghanistan will at that time become a story of the past and the media will just go there once in a while, a it like Iraq today.

 

[Awesome]

The problem you all got is that you are speculating something which is opposite to India's stand. We are not sending troops and that is final.
This is being repeated n number of times.

India very rightfully doesn't want to maintain troops for Afghanistan, but does want to keep a spy network open.

We want India totally out, or all the way in. Best strategy would be to start hitting Indians inside Afghanistan where they have no protection. After that either India will leave or draw itself into a long expensive war.

 

[Nemesis]

We want India totally out, or all the way in. Best strategy would be to start hitting Indians inside Afghanistan where they have no protection. After that either India will leave or draw itself into a long expensive war.

"We" doesn't enter the picture. If Afghanistan wants our military presence, we shall consider it and most probably decline. We don't have enough troops to defend our own borders, why would we send thousands of troops and put our own security at risk?

At best India would increase the number of people from the Afghan army they are training.

And i don't see US withdrawing by 2011 as promised by Obama either. Not until they are completely sure that the country won't descend into chaos. They won't make the same mistake twice.

 

[chantpapipart2]

India very rightfully doesn't want to maintain troops for Afghanistan, but does want to keep a spy network open.

We want India totally out, or all the way in. Best strategy would be to start hitting Indians inside Afghanistan where they have no protection. After that either India will leave or draw itself into a long expensive war.

Who are you???? India and afghanistan are independent countries and pakistan should stop poking its nose in biletral relationship. Pakistan has no role to play and should stop treating afghanistan as its slave state.

 

[Awesome]

Who are you???? India and afghanistan are independent countries and pakistan should stop poking its nose in biletral relationship. Pakistan has no role to play and should stop treating afghanistan as its slave state.

This is not a thread about the right and wrong of things. There are so many wrongs that exist in the whole scenario. This thread is about the prevailing situation and what Pakistan can do about it.

 

[Gazzi]

Who are you???? India and afghanistan are independent countries and pakistan should stop poking its nose in biletral relationship. Pakistan has no role to play and should stop treating afghanistan as its slave state.

Your in no position to talk.......who the hell is India to talk about Tibet, what was East Pakistan, we can go on with a list....

Pakistan has its own interests at stake....hence we will do whatever is necessary for our rightful objectives.

 

[chantpapipart2]

This is not a thread about the right and wrong of things. There are so many wrongs that exist in the whole scenario. This thread is about the prevailing situation and what Pakistan can do about it.

In that case pakistan should play constructive role, contribute in nation building of afghanistan. That will automatically reduce india's influence.

 

[TechLahore]

Another thing would be to draw India into a long, bloody and expensive war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. India has been desperately trying to surround Pakistan, it initially would've gone with the Iranian, AF base option, but putting military in Iran in todays world would draw flak from the US.

There is nothing to suggest that the Iranians would ever offer India the ability to deploy troops on their territory to use against Pakistan. While there have been misunderstandings between Iran and Pakistan, the relations remain mostly cordial. Once this Afghanistan fiasco approaches an end, these relations will only improve because they enjoy some very fundamental positive underpinnings.

The IP(C?) pipeline, Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul link and other joint projects with Iran are all long term and they represent the confidence of our Foreign Office that relations with Iran will remain positive and helpful.

As we've seen, the Taliban are unbeatable by COIN operations you need to establish massive control and put in massive resources to Taliban proof Afghanistan. India often boasts around in articles that they have the most experience with COIN.

The idea from Pakistan SHOULD be to hit Indian intelligence operations within Afghanistan as soon as we can. So that Indian strategy in Afghanistan shifts from simple hit and run against Pakistan to formally maintaining a military presence in Afghanistan. This allows for a see-able and quantifiable target for us and only then would we have a chance for that "Indian graveyard" scenario you're talking about.

I would really be shocked out of my wits if India went for a significant military presence in Afghanistan. It will be a replay of the Gen. Elphinstone vs. Akbar Khan rout that left a single British soldier returning to his garrison with news of the massacre.

I give Indian strategists more credit than this. They know they would be chewed up in Afghanistan in no time flat.