Pakistan will get New Air Defence system within this Year - CAS on ARY News .

[Yasser76]

For the sake of gloating for 5-7 years, I hope the PAF signed a huge multi-billion-dollar deal with Leonardo (i.e., Italy and the UK) for: 18~24 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3s, Aster 30 SAMP/T, CAMM-ER, M-346 LIFT, and various high-level and low-level / gap-filler radars.

Let's pull an Egypt.

It sounds reckless, but the "perception" of such a deal carries exponentially more weight than anything we'd get from China (not including SSBNs, ICBMs, HGVs, etc). The media in both India and Pakistan will be fixated on the flashiness and, perhaps, that might in a weird way work as a deterrence. The enemy that fears you a bit too much is as valuable as one that recklessly underestimates you.

The cost is high from a fiscal standpoint, but with smart negotiating and vision, the economics can still work out.

One can drive a $10 B package with a 50% offset -- i.e., $5 B -- that involves the OEMs setting-up MRO in Pakistan and sourcing work from the Pakistani private sector. That latter component may keep our talent in Pakistan (by giving them great STEM jobs) while boosting our domestic R&D base (in support of Project AZM). Those entities could end up exporting other products and services, thereby resulting in an overall net-positive economic effect.

You had me up until "

For the sake of gloating for 5-7 years, I hope the PAF signed a huge multi-billion-dollar deal with Leonardo (i.e., Italy and the UK) for: 18~24 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3s, Aster 30 SAMP/T, CAMM-ER, M-346 LIFT, and various high-level and low-level / gap-filler radars.

Let's pull an Egypt.

It sounds reckless, but the "perception" of such a deal carries exponentially more weight than anything we'd get from China (not including SSBNs, ICBMs, HGVs, etc). The media in both India and Pakistan will be fixated on the flashiness and, perhaps, that might in a weird way work as a deterrence. The enemy that fears you a bit too much is as valuable as one that recklessly underestimates you.

The cost is high from a fiscal standpoint, but with smart negotiating and vision, the economics can still work out.

One can drive a $10 B package with a 50% offset -- i.e., $5 B -- that involves the OEMs setting-up MRO in Pakistan and sourcing work from the Pakistani private sector. That latter component may keep our talent in Pakistan (by giving them great STEM jobs) while boosting our domestic R&D base (in support of Project AZM). Those entities could end up exporting other products and services, thereby resulting in an overall net-positive economic effect.

This seems a very expensive way to divert resources away from AZM.

I do appreciate what you say about the PR/Psychological effect this may have on India, but that will just increase Indian domestic pressure to reply with a countermeasure, and they have more cash then us. What you are suggesting is a typical arms race. We simply cannot win that.

It was made pretty clear 7-8 years ago, when PAF saw the writing on the wall with regards to MMRCA/Rafales in IAF that PAF was going to skip a generation and not go for Typhoon/J-10/Gripen or what ever and the bet was on JF-17 Block III and F-16 holding the fort till AZM arrived.

Unsure if this strategy has changed taking into account all these J-10 rumours.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Yeah, be crazy not to leverage all the good work the Chinese have done on stealth, if they are willing to share.

It may mean the Chinese condition it on us giving up on all western air systems completely. After all they will not be happy with the fact if PAF Erieyes and TPS-77 radars will work closely wit their stealth technology surely?

Dude, China will love to test their technology against Western defense systems via Pakistan. In short, Pakistan is also a testing ground for their indigenous weaponary. Lastly by the time we will inducting 5th generation planes, China will be developing 6th generation planes so they won't mind cooperating with Pakistan for a second. Case example: If Jf17 is synch up with Saab Awacs completely than it is also a success for China. Many people here have claimed that J10 programme got better through some of paf inputs as well so as the case with Z10s.

 

[imranyounus]

We are talking about Project Azm and don't expect any prototype in this decade. No way in the world we can have a final product before mid or late 2030s unless we opt for a JV path. Buying offshelves 5th generation plane is something else but with the timelines PAF chief suggested, he is more indicating about Project Azm.

The problem here is that we are not directly hearing what Air chief has said rather we are hearing from third person. so what is said may get little bit distorted.

The issue is if PAF will start induction of first air craft under AZAM in 2047 I.e 27 years from now and 30 years from start of project. Than it will be better off buying from China rather spending money and resources on this project.

it will be too late first aircraft in 2047 means you it will take another 20 years to replace all 4 generation aircraft when the world will most likely fielding 7 generation.

Another element is even though Indian AF sucked at LCA and Rafael development and procurement it doesn't mean it will follow suit in 5 Generation too. Indian AF will definitely get it's first 5 generation aircraft by early 2030 or at most by mid 2030.

So either way if PAF develops AZAM or buying from China it will have to be in early to mid 30 others wise it will be too late.

Furthermore in today's world it doesn't take too long at most a decade is enough to develop a new aircraft. particularly keeping in mind that engine will not be new and most likely be from China so its not impossible for PAF to have it ready by 2030

 

[Yasser76]

Dude, China will love to test their technology against Western defense systems via Pakistan. In short, Pakistan is also a testing ground for their indigenous weaponary. Lastly by the time we will inducting 5th generation planes, China will be developing 6th generation planes so they won't mind cooperating with Pakistan for a second. Case example: If Jf17 is synch up with Saab Awacs completely than it is also a success for China. Many people here have claimed that J10 programme got better through some of paf inputs as well so as the case with Z10s.

Yes, but as China races ahead in tech and focuses on a potential confrontation with the US over Taiwan it me be considerate of the tech falling into the wrong hands, as we both know, there are many Americans still roaming around Pakistani bases and of course observing us in close by in Afghanistan. I trust Pak armed forces as does China, but no country gives away their very best unless certain

 

[Dreamer.]

This is off topic but i have to point out the pot shots taken by this tout of PMLN at the army by saying PAF only pays attention to its operational matters.
And then they have a problem when people raise questions on Media.

A hard truth is a hard truth even if spoken by a tout.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

The problem here is that we are not directly hearing what Air chief has said rather we are hearing from third person. so what is said may get little bit distorted.

The issue is if PAF will start induction of first air craft under AZAM in 2047 I.e 27 years from now and 30 years from start of project. Than it will be better off buying from China rather spending money and resources on this project.

it will be too late first aircraft in 2047 means you it will take another 20 years to replace all 4 generation aircraft when the world will most likely fielding 7 generation.

Another element is even though Indian AF sucked at LCA and Rafael development and procurement it doesn't mean it will follow suit in 5 Generation too. Indian AF will definitely get it's first 5 generation aircraft by early 2030 or at most by mid 2030.

So either way if PAF develops AZAM or buying from China it will have to be in early to mid 30 others wise it will be too late.

Furthermore in today's world it doesn't take too long at most a decade is enough to develop a new aircraft. particularly keeping in mind that engine will not be new and most likely be from China so its not impossible for PAF to have it ready by 2030

The issue is if PAF will start induction of first air craft under AZAM in 2047 I.e 27 years from now and 30 years from start of project

Dude, he meant by 2047 paf will be fully converted into NG AF not that the first of 5th generation plane of its kind will be inducted. To elaborate the point, our first 5th generation plane is expected by late 2030s and by 2047, we will be having 7-8 squads integrated fully with 5 generation technologies.

 

[GriffinsRule]

The timelines makes sense. Most likely Pakistan will start testing/prototyping it's 5th gen aircraft in or around 2040. Given some delays we will be starting to retire the MLU F-16s around that time, mid-2040s ie. The B52s will probably serve for 50-60 yrs if their numbers stay stable or we acquire more down the road.

In the interim, 2021-2026 we have 5 years of JF-17 production allowing us to replace non-ROSE Mirages (No.8 Sqn, No.15 Sqn) and F-7P (Shooters LIFT/Dashings). That's 3 squadrons there.

In the second half of this decade, if we acquire 2 squadrons now from wherever (J-10/F-16/Typhoon), PAF will have to decide whether to replace 3 F-7PGs (No.20OCU, 17 & 23 Sqns) or the ROSE I Mirage 3Os (No.7 Sqn). That's 4 more squadrons to go. At the tail end of this decade we might produce Block IVs JF-17 to replace perhaps the two of these 4.

Going into the 2030s, you still have three squadrons of Mirage 5Fs (No.25 & 27 Sqns) and the No.22 OCU squadron and the ACE Mirage flight. ADF F-16s (No.19 Sqn) all of which might well serve us into the first half of 2030s. These would be replaced by Block IV/V of JF-17 and potentially a 5th gen fighter towards the end of 2030s.

That means going into the 2040s PAF will have MLU F-16s and B52s still, all of the JF-17s (continued production to replace block Is in the 2040s), 2-3 of squadrons of whatever 4.5 gen aircraft PAF buys in the 2020s, and 3-4 early 5th gen squadrons.

In my opinion this is a very tight timeline given the expense around acquiring new jets vs local production and assuming everything with AZM stays on target and meets the timelines (which never happens).

 

[Mrc]

F-16s have many other positives which overshadow this functionality.

Plus being vulnerable to sanctions and not to say US is unreliable and won't even release the helicopters that have been paid for

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

You had me up until "



This seems a very expensive way to divert resources away from AZM.

I do appreciate what you say about the PR/Psychological effect this may have on India, but that will just increase Indian domestic pressure to reply with a countermeasure, and they have more cash then us. What you are suggesting is a typical arms race. We simply cannot win that.

It was made pretty clear 7-8 years ago, when PAF saw the writing on the wall with regards to MMRCA/Rafales in IAF that PAF was going to skip a generation and not go for Typhoon/J-10/Gripen or what ever and the bet was on JF-17 Block III and F-16 holding the fort till AZM arrived.

Unsure if this strategy has changed taking into account all these J-10 rumours.

True.

IMO if the PAF moves ahead with an off-the-shelf fighter, then it'll be the J-10CE. Moreover, the PAF would never stop at 30-40 aircraft -- it will commit to 90-150 over the long-run.

If this is the route, then I suspect the J-10CE would actually be a key component of a 'next-generation fleet.' It appears that most major air forces are moving towards a mixed 4.5+ and 5/NGFA posture -- the PAF may be following trends.

In this case, the procurement track could be:

• 2020 to 2030:
  • 50 JF-17 Block-III
  • 30-40 J-10CE
    
• 2030-2047
  • 50-110 J-10CE
  • 90+ AZM NGFA

Basically, by 2047, the PAF can look like:

• 90+ AZM NGFA (gen 5+)
• 90-150 J-10CE (gen 4.5+)
• 76 JF-17B/Block-III (gen 4+)

 

[spectregunship]

For the sake of gloating for 5-7 years, I hope the PAF signed a huge multi-billion-dollar deal with Leonardo (i.e., Italy and the UK) for: 18~24 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3s, Aster 30 SAMP/T, CAMM-ER, M-346 LIFT, and various high-level and low-level / gap-filler radars.

Let's pull an Egypt.

It sounds reckless, but the "perception" of such a deal carries exponentially more weight than anything we'd get from China (not including SSBNs, ICBMs, HGVs, etc). The media in both India and Pakistan will be fixated on the flashiness and, perhaps, that might in a weird way work as a deterrence. The enemy that fears you a bit too much is as valuable as one that recklessly underestimates you.

The cost is high from a fiscal standpoint, but with smart negotiating and vision, the economics can still work out.

One can drive a $10 B package with a 50% offset -- i.e., $5 B -- that involves the OEMs setting-up MRO in Pakistan and sourcing work from the Pakistani private sector. That latter component may keep our talent in Pakistan (by giving them great STEM jobs) while boosting our domestic R&D base (in support of Project AZM). Those entities could end up exporting other products and services, thereby resulting in an overall net-positive economic effect.

this is something I have been dreaming about since 2016... i often argue with colleagues that the leap forward for PAF lies in EFT and Leonardo products... if only wishes could come true..

 

[HRK]

Aster 30 SAMP/T, CAMM-ER,

seem difficult due to French connection

 

[Mrc]

this is something I have been dreaming about since 2016... i often argue with colleagues that the leap forward for PAF lies in EFT and Leonardo products... if only wishes could come true..

1 EFT 150 million USD... That's 8 jf 17 in same price

 

[The Raven]

The PAF was eventually going to turn into an all Eastern airforce at some point after the Vipers are retired, it's not as if any future western platform like the F-35 was in contention, and the window for Typhoon and Rafales has long closed. The only question is when. More importantly, it will also most likely mean no more attendance of PAF at Red Flag and broader winding down of PAF/USAF interaction, which is sad in a way... despite all the mistrust, the PAF is what it is today because of USAF training and philosophy when it comes to airpower, let's not forget that.

 

[Yasser76]

True.

IMO if the PAF moves ahead with an off-the-shelf fighter, then it'll be the J-10CE. Moreover, the PAF would never stop at 30-40 aircraft -- it will commit to 90-150 over the long-run.

If this is the route, then I suspect the J-10CE would actually be a key component of a 'next-generation fleet.' It appears that most major air forces are moving towards a mixed 4.5+ and 5/NGFA posture -- the PAF may be following trends.

In this case, the procurement track could be:

• 2020 to 2030:
  • 50 JF-17 Block-III
  • 30-40 J-10CE
• 2030-2047
  • 50-110 J-10CE
  • 90+ AZM NGFA

Basically, by 2047, the PAF can look like:

• 90+ AZM NGFA (gen 5+)
• 90-150 J-10CE (gen 4.5+)
• 76 JF-17B/Block-III (gen 4+)

Really does depend on what exactly the ACM said during the interview, we are all guessing here, but if he really did say an "all 5th Gen fighter force" by 2047, then J-10 and JF-17 simply do not fit into that catagory.

A real long shot is that the new fighter we get is the FC-31 this year, as I so, BIG long shot but PAF has surprised us before.

By 2047 you can easily have a fleet of

200 F-C31
100 AZM

We will not need a like for like numbers replacment for Mirage/F-7 so fair to say PAF total force may reduce in squadron size to say around 14 squadrons, but this is no major issue considering IAF will be a 24-26 squadron force for the medium to long term anyway.

If however the ACM did not actually specify "all 5th Gen by 2047", then your summation seems emminantly feasable

The PAF was eventually going to turn into an all Eastern airforce at some point after the Vipers are retired, it's not as if any future western platform like the F-35 was in contention, and the window for Typhoon and Rafales has long closed. The only question is when. More importantly, it will also most likely mean no more attendance of PAF at Red Flag and broader winding down of PAF/USAF interaction, which is sad in a way... despite all the mistrust, the PAF is what it is today because of USAF training and philosophy when it comes to airpower, let's not forget that.

Very very valid point

 

[Dreamer.]

Really does depend on what exactly the ACM said during the interview, we are all guessing here, but if he really did say an "all 5th Gen fighter force" by 2047,

Where on earth are people getting these ridiculous ideas from??? is what I want to know!!

CAS's own words are not available but even the 'original' source in this case (i.e. Arshad Sharif on ARY) does not say anything like that! So where is all this funny stuff coming from?

Really people on this forum have a heavy imagination of their own and an un-ending talent for plucking something out of thin air and then having pages upon pages of "discussion" about it!

The words on the ARY show (which is as near as we can get to an original source on this) were: "PAF will be a 5th Generation Air force by 2047". Notice the missing word (all)??

Of course these may not even be the CAS's exact words for all we know. But even going by these words it only says that PAF will have all aspacts of that capability operational by that time (or earlier). It does not imply there will be nothing 4th or 4.5th generation anymore or that all of that will be thrown away by 2047. SO WHAT IS THE POINT OF THIS DISCUSSION THEN?? ZERO!

I ask you guys can we say TODAY that the USAF is a 5th generation air force or not? I think yes we can, since they have multiple assets that qualify them for that. And that being so, do they not have 4/4.5th gen assets also? loads of them?

So now you guys know what the CAS said. OK so end of discussion on "all 5th gen".