@orangzeb and
@Irfan Baloch
Nice discussion as one can see but we need to think whats in the best of interests of Pakistan first. Weapons can come and go but what matters is that a stable economy is needed in order to keep on buying weapons and keeping our minimum deterrent against india more realistic in the future as well.
In such a case our TAPI or Russian gas deal is not a very good option. For a few main reasons.......
1)
The main goal for us is the favorable deal we can get and by this we will sideline iran out of this picture. That irani gas pipeline deal is more favorable since its very coast effective, since the pipeline itself will come directly from iran to pak. From Russia it has to go through other formal soviat states and their loyalty with soviats with passage of time is getting low. The main clue is the countries like Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Even Uzbekistan are not interested in being part of the future Russian EuroAsia Union that Russia now wants to make.
2) If we really go for lets say TAPI or any other deal besides iran or not giving something to it for counter balance of her indian influence (chahbahar port, transit routs to Afghanistan and Indian buying oil and gas from them amidst lots of international pressure)which can turn out to be counter productive for us, since indians will strengthen themselves as more reliable partner in the irani eyes.
3) Then what can happen is that since afghans cant be very much trusted since its the northern alliance mainly in their upper class now and their relations with indians are legendary from Farkhor Air Base - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia in Tajikistan.
4) Now that can iran do?
It will them agree with indians to use their territory (either limited use or more) against baluchistan or through afghanistan. Now when we are gain going with Kashmir cause and if God forbid a war brakes out and iran and india somehow sign a defense deal then it will allow indians or maybe iranis to attack in our backyards while we are fighting indians in the east.
Combating Terrorism means Combating Pakistan » Indian Defence Review
Pakistan must not be India’s neighbor » Indian Defence Review who is another radical from the same website.
5) So what should we do? In this case its ideal to maintain a bit of balance with iran as well so they are not pressurized by india to sign some sort of defence deal which will ensure the indians to use pak's backyard while we are busy fighting them in east in a war time scenario. .
You brought up some good points to design a strategy around. Let me answer in order for you:
1) Russian gas deal is an optimal deal for you. (Sadly, being an American, I am saying this, we don't have a direct pipeline to Pakistan so I guess I can favor the Russians here). Whether I like it or not, Russia is the second largest military power. They are no longer a super power, but they are the second largest power and then there is China. I'd even put them in one basket.
So having relationships with TWO second largest powers in the entire globe is NEVER bad. And having billions of trade where they make money too, is icing on the cake. These are two veto votes in the UN, just fyi. Plus dealing with Russians, you'll overcome many issues with regards to the Central Russian estates as they are scared of the Red Bear, and will allow smooth transition of oil and gas. And in turn, Pakistan gets help, investments and advanced weapons, and corners a huge power in his court. Not a bad deal at all.
2) The Central Russian estates that don't like Russia, do like China and some even Pakistan. So you'll be covered from all angles. This is plenty of leverage there. Plus remember, these Central Russian estates all have Chinese influence and they would eventually be linked with China through road and rail links. Which means that they want to use Gawader as its cheaper too. So more business for Pakistan as the silk road develops and becomes operational.
3) After the recent meetings with the Afghans, I won't count them as a factor. They may have good relations with India. But the Afghanistan needs China for infrastructure development and the Chinese need Pakistan's help here. So at the end, Pakistan is very involved within Afghanistan, in a good way. There are shared common agreements now in place to even buy Pakistani weapons and JFT planes, plus training. So things are looking good from that side for both, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
They've agreed to let the Indian influence out of the relationships and thus you see the change in tone. Otherwise, China won't invest in it if the Afghanis keep playing the India part and tick off Pakistan. And Afghanistan will remain a "remote mountainous region" for the next three decades to come. If you want to turn it into civilization.....you'll need the Chinese for the infrastructure and the Pakistanis allowing ports to send goods, machinery and all from Karachi and Gawader. Simple is that.
4) Iran can use their port that they want to build with India. But who are they supplying stuff too? The width of Iran from this port is so big that it'll be super expensive to transport stuff from Iran......plus India doesn't need it as they have ports themselves. They may be able to build a naval base at lease or something but that's it.
Plus, when Pakistan is working with the Russians and the Chinese, the Iran factor almost fades away. Because they are pro-Russians and pro-Chinese. So in case of a conflict, they can get a shush call from either the Chinese or the Russians.
Plus, PAF having -16 block 52, JFT Block II and III's, with potentially SU-37's, why a country the size of Iran or even India want to mess with such strong 4th generation flying force? You can try it, but be ready to lose half the number of your top line jets and that's a pretty expensive proposal for any one. Iran hardly has that conflict ability anymore.
India can use Iran for Baluchistan as Afghanistan will back off of India using their land for this (if it hasn't already, that was the strong message Gen. Raheel had for the Afghanistan leadership that if they don't work well for the Pakistani interests, Pakistan will hot pursuit the terrorist back to Afghanistan). I doubt that Iran will allow India to do so, specially knowing that it might piss off the Russians or the Chinese as terrorists will try to find these foreigners working in Pakistan to target first.
So at the end, the future looks bright for Pakistan. The MAJOR danger is not from the outside right now, it is from the inside, the political unrest in Pakistan can scare away the investors. That needs to be fixed. Plus the current government MUST complete its turn, otherwise you'll lose a lot of advantages I mentioned above as they've brought in a lot of investment because of their relationships. That's what a CFO does in a company.....
Well by "you" i meant pakistan which i believe you represent as a citizen and doesnt need rocket science to understand. There should be gradual increase in defence budget for avoiding negative impact on economy, its investment not lottery that you go and buy a car from showroom.
1) I am not a Pakistani citizen. I just write the truth and sometimes it is not in favor of India or Pakistan. So please quit pigeon holing me. My loyalty is to the Star Spangled Banner you see in my signatures.
3) There is no law that says there have to be gradual increase in any budget. It is their money and they'll use it as they wish to. You and I have nothing to worry about. If they want to spend it all on jets, they will. We don't have a say in it.
