Pakistan seeks big powers’ help to settle Kashmir issue
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Ajaxpaul
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Yes in reality No one cares, only ego and politics.
Sometimes feel bad for the Kashmiri people but quickly replaced by nationalism
NHUDA
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Yes u r right ..... i can show a similiar statement from Pakistan side (Happy Scenarios for Pakistan) & may be we will have a different from kashmiri Side ....
however being a Realistic Pakistani ... i m not seeking Scenario 2 & 7 (Politically 2,3,7 are never Gonna happen even acheiving them militarilly is a Tough ask for either side)
Scenario 1 IS a problem thts why we r here discussing it even after 60 Years ... !
Scenario 4 i have already out-credited earlier not gonna happen due to myriad of ground realities !
Scenario 5 & 6 are the ones which are on the table ... i know IF ever India would agree it would agree on 5 over 6 ... assuming tht Both are gonna loose territory (& hence a comparatively Easier Sell domestically) ... but bear in Mind It will be easier for india to IF Possible court a Post scenario 6 valley rather thn a Scenario 5 Valley which will have much more tilted towards Pakistan due to AJK than only IOK !
Also .... again ... none of this would even be of any substance unless Pakistan rise to the occasion .... I m not saying it would or it won't ... i m saying it CAN if (yups I know BIG IF) they follow a consistent Long term Policy in coming 30 years .... thr is a possibility we can actually have a dynamics where we can come to a scenario 6 (or 5) type solution, Politically !
Again U have right to disagree !
Soumitra
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I think both of us agree that 2,4,and 7 out of question
You are saying 1 is a problem but the problem in that statement is that India does not consider 1 as a problem. Sure we would love 3 but we are happy with 1.
You know Newton's 1st law. A object at rest will remain at rest and an object in motion will remain in motion till an external force acts on it. The same can be said about status quo. A situation in Status Quo will remain at Status Quo till an external force acts on it. Scenario 1 is status quo and will remain status quo till external force tries to change it
India is bigger force and happy with Status Quo. If it pushes it will push towards Scenario 3 and will no doubt get great resistance from Pakistan. Even if Pakistan's stature increases they are not capable of pushing beyond 5 and 6
If 6 is looking like happening India will push for 5
A scenario 5/6 valley is non self sustainable it is landlocked, surrounded by two big hostile powers and has very little economic potential. + the threat of jihadist wahabi elements which are likely to make that region another terror hotbed like Syria. Such a hostile environment is likely to collapse in a few years. Yes they may be more inclined towards Pakistan but India will not sit back and let them go to Pakistan so we will intervene again and it may lead us back to scenario 1 which if you think objectively has the potential to be the most stable state among all the scenarios
NHUDA
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Please Add in on the same standard Scenario 3 too in the above statement which u subtly left
U know that india (no matter how mighty it is or become having issues maintaining Scenario 1) can never have scenario 3 (same as Pakistan would not be able to get Scenario 2 & 7 .. infact i highly doubt india actually ever want Scenario 3 and hence stick to maintaining Status Quo (Scenario - 1)
While Two of the Three Parties (India & Pakistan) won't do a Self-voluntary Scenario 4 (also with some support from portions of Region (G&B, AJK, Ladakh & jammu)
hence Please .... If u r really trying to have a deduction do it on merit & reality ... 2, and 7 are not possible, so is Scenario - 3 ... while None of India & Pakistan would opt for Scenario 4.
That leaves us with Scenario - 1 (Status Quo) as well as 5 & 6 !
Ofcourse India is and Will try to keep the Status Quo intact .... And for that to happen first thing is to belive & mmake everyone else believe tht this is NOT a problem but making LOC an IB is the solution .... and this is where first line of disagreement lies .... I m not blaming You or the Govt. with trying to maintain Status Quo ... Had i be an indian Policy maker or advocating indian side would do the same ... but i m advocating as a Pakistani & i have my reasons to say that the valley requires freedom ... but for you it is all just a foreign agenda pushing ... no matter how hard we try ... we cannot convince each other & here comes my first part of the First Post ... that Pakistan have to solve one burning issue & in doing so it will give hope to the world that such issues can be solved and although Two state Solution is what Israel & USA yearn for IMO making it a reality will mean thr loss ! and once USA & Israel can be agreed upon something it won't be harder to convince the world that Kashmir IS AN ISSUE and they can thn ask india collectively to adress the issue ... the same is been asked even NOW ... but it is not a consistent effort ..
So the First thing is to bring the issue at spotlight which india is trying to downplay & tht in its own challenges the scenario - One ... & i totally understand when u will say it is NOT an issue ... coz accepting Scenario one as an issue will be half the battle !
So for Scenario 1 Problem or NOT we just have to agree to disagree
I totally agree Pakistan Eventually if ever it can ... Can will push for Scenario 6 & india IF (again a lot has to happen to reach this IF) will see things going for Scenario 6 will push for 6 .... & again in short Run it may look a Win/win scenario ... a Scenario 5 can prove to be pivotal for the Newly created state to tilt toward Pakistan, especially when Pakistan will be a huge customer upfront of Kashmir Seeking Electricity & water !!!
This is a rhetoric .. smaller countries with difficult conditions have had survived and Kashmir has a Huge potential of Tourism, as well as Hydro-Electricity which it can easily sell to both countries ( i myself only want to see a Glimpse of Dal Lake for real) .... it can also export Handicraft, and other cottage industries & agricultural goods, With high literacy it can become a Software Silicon Valley to provide a gazillion of service oriented solutions ... not to forget a lot of amount can be brought in via remittances by expats ...
No sir Kashmir is No Syria , No iran, No iraq or Saudi Arabia ..... the Flag of ISIS is more so to irritate the local police & overly exaggerated by indian media to cry wolf ... even the Freedom Fighter will have no more reason to continue un controlled aggression and can & will be easily be part of the whole society from policing to security services.
Pakistan was also said to be likely to be collapse in a few years ... beyond one hiccup it is still intact and even so been slated as worst this & that is a home to 200 million strong versatile people.
And thts the only reason india do not want a kashmir resolution .. coz it knows so that naturally the Newly formed state will be closer to Pakistan .... I mean if u say so that kashmiris are with India save a few hundred ... thn why it does not give a chance to the people decide themselves what they want & once get it how they act ...
i m really hopeful the resolution of Kashmir can end most if not all hostility between the two ! but considering the daily firing at LOC with loss of valuable life on both sides it shows up that Scenario One is the most stable solution !
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