Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal

[RayKalm]

Pakistan

Pakistan is blocking the start of negotiations of a global halt to the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons.
The Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) can’t begin, Pakistani diplomats say, because existing stockpiles won’t be covered. But Pakistan would be loath to reveal its existing stocks, and no one in any position of authority would permit foreign inspectors to verify their locations and extent.
And if, by some miraculous event, existing stocks were covered in the treaty, an absolutely necessary first step would be to verify a freeze on existing production ~ the very agreement that Pakistan wholeheartedly resists.
Another problem with an FMCT, Pakistani officials say, is the civil nuclear deal offered to India by the USA. This deal, they assert, will allow Indian authorities many new sources of fissile material to make bombs. But foreign companies aren’t rushing into the Indian nuclear power market. Instead, they are keeping their distance because of meagre liability protections passed by Indian Parliament.
Even if, in the future, Indian liability laws are changed and foreign companies build dozens of new power plants, the diversion of electricity into bombs is very unlikely. India has facilities dedicated to military production, and no longer needs to poach on power plants to make weapons.
A related Pakistani argument used to block the start-up of FMCT negotiations is that India’s breeder reactor programme will provide an open-ended source of fissile material for weapons. This presumes that India’s breeder programme, unlike that of the USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan and Russia, will actually prove to be worth its considerable investment.
Even if New Delhi continues to subsidise the breeder programme, there will be severe domestic political penalties for diverting electricity into bombs. Pakistani analysts who warn of this outcome are projecting their own civil-military relations onto India.

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