Pakistan’s Impending Defeat in Afghanistan

[Developereo]

Ironically, the OP makes just as much sense if you reverse the participants and their proxies.

In other words, the Afghan situation can be summarized as follows: Pakistan's aim is to make sure Afghanistan doesn't revert to becoming a launchpad for anti-Pakistan proxy activity by India and others, as it has been in the past. Pakistan achieved that goal post-Soviet withdrawal, which is why the US had to step in and re-install a pro-India, pro-US puppet regime. This puppet is not welcome by most of the regional players, including Pakistan, China and Iran -- the only country that wants NATO presence in Afghanistan is India, for obvious and less-than-altruistic reasons.

Pakistan will have achieved victory if this puppet regime fails to gain legitimacy in Afghanistan and, judging by its abject unpopularity, Pakistan (and the other regional players) are winning against NATO's imposed order.

 

[nadeem_ak65]

You must understand that the ordinary Pakistan has no say whatsoever in the Afghanistan imbroglio. This is the prerogative of the Pakistan Army Generals who lay down the ground rules and policies in relation to Afghanistan and India. The Pakistan government has no say in these matters.

Unfortunately for the men in uniform it is the end result that counts and not the means. But the end result here in relation to their doctrine of 'Strategic Depth' in Afghanistan is unraveling and falling apart. Army Generals should be kept away from framing policies concerning relations with other nations per se which must be left to the democratically elected government of the day.

Unfortunately, the army leadership, political leadership and bureaucracy all are directly or indirectly paid by anti-state agents to work against Pakistan. After the planned martyrdom of Liaquat Ali Khan the ICS clout took over the country and the same families or their servants are running the country. They are loyal to all who pay but Pakistan. The credit of Pakistan survival goes to the soldiers of this country who keep pressure on the military leadership not allowing them to blatantly sell Pakistan. Even today if it was not the below general rank officers of our military, General Kayani would have himself driven the first NATO truck to Afghanistan to please his masters. One wonders that with the judiciary restored through Indian money to create anarchy, military led by traitors who are afraid to fight, politicians who have sold their souls to devil, bureaucracy mentally subservient to British/US Raj and Mullah oblivious to Allah SWT orders propagating dajjal/fitnah how come Pakistan has come this far? But even as a very weak and bad muslim I know it is Allah's SWT will that Pakistan is to survive and prosper, insha Allah.

 

[notorious_eagle]

You must understand that the ordinary Pakistan has no say whatsoever in the Afghanistan imbroglio. This is the prerogative of the Pakistan Army Generals who lay down the ground rules and policies in relation to Afghanistan and India. The Pakistan government has no say in these matters.

Unfortunately for the men in uniform it is the end result that counts and not the means. But the end result here in relation to their doctrine of 'Strategic Depth' in Afghanistan is unraveling and falling apart. Army Generals should be kept away from framing policies concerning relations with other nations per se which must be left to the democratically elected government of the day.

What an idiotic post

You do realize the General Staff is made up of ordinary Pakistani's whom have served the country with dedication and honour for 35+ years before reaching the rank of a Major General. It are always the strategic planners whom lay down the country's strategic policies and Pakistan is no exception to this. Does the common man in India decide India's strategic policy? No, it is always the strategic planners whom lay out the strategic policy of a nation.

Unfortunately in our case we have to let our General Staff craft our strategic policy because not only are our politicians corrupt but they are also incompetent. PA's General Staff has long abandoned the theory of Strategic Depth, what Pakistan wants is a friendly Afghan Government whom is not hostile towards Pakistan and is not a launch pad for proxy groups operating against Pakistan. The last thing Pakistan wants is to send the Army in to rout out an invading Afghan force.

 

[swathi]

Ironically, the OP makes just as much sense if you reverse the participants and their proxies.

Pakistan will have achieved victory if this puppet regime fails to gain legitimacy in Afghanistan and, judging by its abject unpopularity, Pakistan (and the other regional players) are winning against NATO's imposed order.

.

It is very clear that taliban will take over Afghanistan, No Second thought in that, In my Opinion Karzai Government can survive for next 5 years because of the equipment and Aid provided by US, Again a Civil War,After taliban take over, The situation will not be favour to paksitan as TTP and Lashkar E Islam are in bed with other factions of Taliban.

Regarding India: India can expect a rise in Insurgent attacks in Jammu & Kashmir as the NATO withdraws, As Pakistan will again concenterate on Kashmir front,

b) There is also another problem for pakistan, Unlike the Past, Indian Intelligence networks have been established a network in Tribal areas of paksitan, In the past Indian administration did'nt authorize covert operations against paksitan, But now present government is not like that. If paksitan tries to do in kashmir , India will also do something in Waziristan.

C) For United States: United States and their NATO counterparts have to heavily rely upon Drone attacks, Airstrikes for Future counter terroism purposes, They have to strengthen their homeland security, as Safe heavens available for militants is more now. For this may use airbases in Tajiskistan and uzbekistan.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

Pakistan cannot lose in Afghanistan they aren't inside of Afghanistan. That statement alone deserves a face palm and the writer should be discredited. Pakistan does not care who is in power in Afghanistan, all they care about is that whoever is in charge doesn't antagonize their western border with claims to the durand line as that would surely make them enemies. The pushtunistan mentioned in the article deserves another face palm as all Pushtu in Pakistan are proud members of Pakistan. See afghan border incursion of 1962 and you will see whose side the tribesman were on.



He is a troll don't mind him.



Indians on this forum think they are Pakistani representatives. They believe they are the voice of the voiceless.

The author is talking about a strategic defeat and not a military defeat .

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

Ironically, the OP makes just as much sense if you reverse the participants and their proxies.

In other words, the Afghan situation can be summarized as follows: Pakistan's aim is to make sure Afghanistan doesn't revert to becoming a launchpad for anti-Pakistan proxy activity by India and others, as it has been in the past. Pakistan achieved that goal post-Soviet withdrawal, which is why the US had to step in and re-install a pro-India, pro-US puppet regime. This puppet is not welcome by most of the regional players, including Pakistan, China and Iran -- the only country that wants NATO presence in Afghanistan is India, for obvious and less-than-altruistic reasons.

Pakistan will have achieved victory if this puppet regime fails to gain legitimacy in Afghanistan and, judging by its abject unpopularity, Pakistan (and the other regional players) are winning against NATO's imposed order.

US, Russia join hands on Pakistan, Afghanistan | DAWN.COM

No country in the region except Pakistan wants Taliban rule in Afghanistan .Not Russia ,Not Central Asia , Not India ,Not China , Not Iran .

The Afghans do dislike their government but most of them still dread Taliban rule far more than democracy .Also do consider that 58 % of Afghan population in non-Pashtun who almost entirely not support the Taliban and even amongst the 42 % Pashutns of Afghanistan , there a major difference of opinion regarding the Taliban.

Pakistan is bound to lose this one .

What an idiotic post

You do realize the General Staff is made up of ordinary Pakistani's whom have served the country with dedication and honour for 35+ years before reaching the rank of a Major General. It are always the strategic planners whom lay down the country's strategic policies and Pakistan is no exception to this. Does the common man in India decide India's strategic policy? No, it is always the strategic planners whom lay out the strategic policy of a nation.

Unfortunately in our case we have to let our General Staff craft our strategic policy because not only are our politicians corrupt but they are also incompetent. PA's General Staff has long abandoned the theory of Strategic Depth, what Pakistan wants is a friendly Afghan Government whom is not hostile towards Pakistan and is not a launch pad for proxy groups operating against Pakistan. The last thing Pakistan wants is to send the Army in to rout out an invading Afghan force.

To the bold part ,

And to what extent is Pakistan ready to go to ensure that Afghanistan doesn't have a hostile policy towards it ?That is where Pakistan's role in harbouring the Afghan Taliban comes in.

Btw , if you really wanted Afghanistan to be sovereign and independent you should not worry about what policy they have towards you . Today almost all Indian's neighbours have good relations with both china and Pakistan .We don't care . The same Pakistan will have to start allowing Afghanistan to formulate whatever foreign policy they want to even if it means Afghanistan laying claim to NWFP in Pakistan .

.

It is very clear that taliban will take over Afghanistan, No Second thought in that, In my Opinion Karzai Government can survive for next 5 years because of the equipment and Aid provided by US, Again a Civil War,After taliban take over, The situation will not be favour to paksitan as TTP and Lashkar E Islam are in bed with other factions of Taliban.

Regarding India: India can expect a rise in Insurgent attacks in Jammu & Kashmir as the NATO withdraws, As Pakistan will again concenterate on Kashmir front,

b) There is also another problem for pakistan, Unlike the Past, Indian Intelligence networks have been established a network in Tribal areas of paksitan, In the past Indian administration did'nt authorize covert operations against paksitan, But now present government is not like that. If paksitan tries to do in kashmir , India will also do something in Waziristan.

C) For United States: United States and their NATO counterparts have to heavily rely upon Drone attacks, Airstrikes for Future counter terroism purposes, They have to strengthen their homeland security, as Safe heavens available for militants is more now. For this may use airbases in Tajiskistan and uzbekistan.

As long as American drones are there and American soldiers are there in Afghanistan which they will leave around 20,000 of post 2014, there is no way for Taliban to come back to rule Afghanistan.The ANA forces are also maturing now . The insurgency will continue for decades but they won't take over like they did in the 90s .

 

[Developereo]

.It is very clear that taliban will take over Afghanistan, No Second thought in that, In my Opinion Karzai Government can survive for next 5 years because of the equipment and Aid provided by US, Again a Civil War,After taliban take over, The situation will not be favour to paksitan as TTP and Lashkar E Islam are in bed with other factions of Taliban.

Pakistan's only interest in Afghanistan is to make sure it doesn't become an Indian proxy (for reasons mentioned above). Pakistan doesn't have any special affinity for the Taliban, other than the fact that they are not an Indian puppet like the NA and the current government.

The challenge for Pakistan is to wean the Taliban away from their extremist leanings, which are dangerous for everyone involved, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, whilst keeping their nationalist agenda, which suits Pakistan just fine.

Unlike the Past, Indian Intelligence networks have been established a network in Tribal areas of paksitan, In the past Indian administration did'nt authorize covert operations against paksitan, But now present government is not like that. If paksitan tries to do in kashmir , India will also do something in Waziristan.

India has always been active in covert anti-Pakistan operations. The difference is that they were outmaneuvered most of the time and are successful now only because of American support in Afghanistan. That is why India is the only country in the region that likes NATO presence there. If NATO control of Afghanistan is weakened, Indian capabilities will diminish.

C) For United States: United States and their NATO counterparts have to heavily rely upon Drone attacks, Airstrikes for Future counter terroism purposes, They have to strengthen their homeland security, as Safe heavens available for militants is more now. For this may use airbases in Tajiskistan and uzbekistan.

The US will try to keep a certain presence within Afghanistan itself. How tenable that is in the long term remains to be seen.

No country in the region except Pakistan wants Taliban rule in Afghanistan .Not Russia ,Not Central Asia , Not India ,Not China , Not Iran .

The Afghans do dislike their government but most of them still dread Taliban rule far more than democracy .Also do consider that 58 % of Afghan population in non-Pashtun who almost entirely not support the Taliban and even amongst the 42 % Pashutns of Afghanistan , there a major difference of opinion regarding the Taliban.

Like I wrote above, there are two aspects to the Taliban: the anti-US nationalist element and the extremist ideology. It is in everyone's interest to convince them to abandon the latter, but the nationalism per se is not a problem for anyone except NATO.

 

[swathi]

[/QUOTE]

As long as American drones are there and American soldiers are there in Afghanistan which they will leave around 20,000 of post 2014, there is no way for Taliban to come back to rule Afghanistan.The ANA forces are also maturing now . The insurgency will continue for decades but they won't take over like they did in the 90s .[/QUOTE]

Your assessment about Taliban is wrong. Already Kunar province and Nuristan Province of Afghanistan are under Taliban control, Further unlike the media portraits ANA forces are not upto mark.

CC: Developereo: RAW is already Waziristan as a launchpad for covert operations, They very well know the fact that a taliban government in afghansitan will not be so helpful to them.

 

[VCheng]

Ironically, the OP makes just as much sense if you reverse the participants and their proxies.

In other words, the Afghan situation can be summarized as follows: Pakistan's aim is to make sure Afghanistan doesn't revert to becoming a launchpad for anti-Pakistan proxy activity by India and others, as it has been in the past. Pakistan achieved that goal post-Soviet withdrawal, which is why the US had to step in and re-install a pro-India, pro-US puppet regime. This puppet is not welcome by most of the regional players, including Pakistan, China and Iran -- the only country that wants NATO presence in Afghanistan is India, for obvious and less-than-altruistic reasons.

Pakistan will have achieved victory if this puppet regime fails to gain legitimacy in Afghanistan and, judging by its abject unpopularity, Pakistan (and the other regional players) are winning against NATO's imposed order.

Why the US stepped into Afghanistan was not to "re-install a pro-India, pro-US puppet regime" but to deny the territory to those who committed the 9/11 atrocity.

You are however correct in saying that it is in both Pakistan's and India's interests to see their own preferred puppet regime in Afghanistan, but that tussle has not been decided just yet.

The outcome will decide whether Pakistan has the depth it seeks or is caught in a vise from both sides.

 

[F.O.X]

If USA would have Won Then we would have lost as india would have been sitting in Afg after US left , however Neither did US Won nor is India going to be able to stay in Afg after US left , so no We have not lost yet .

 

[xyxmt]

I dont understand how someone can write about something they have no knowledge of. Pakistan has won Afghanistan since 1977 and there is no going back, no power (both India and US combined) cannot do jack about Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan. Pashtun Majority in Afghanistan consider themselves more as Pakistanis than afghanis.

 

[VCheng]

If USA would have Won Then we would have lost as india would have been sitting in Afg after US left , however Neither did US Won nor is India going to be able to stay in Afg after US left , so no We have not lost yet .

I agree with you that the matter is not decided yet, but the ongoing operations to dominate will continue for a considerable time still. No interested party is going to slacken in its efforts.

 

[Developereo]

Why the US stepped into Afghanistan was not to "re-install a pro-India, pro-US puppet regime" but to deny the territory to those who committed the 9/11 atrocity.

The US can walk and chew gum at the same time.

The outcome will decide whether Pakistan has the depth it seeks or is caught in a vise from both sides.

That assumes that Pakistan is seeking the famed strategic depth in the first place. All Pakistan wants to do is to make sure Afghanistan doesn't become an Indian base for trouble-making; there is no need for any further depth beyond that goal.

 

[Cheetah786]

One of the comments about this article by James

This article isn't worth the time it took to hit enter and publish it online! It panders to the western belief that what we do is correct and anything else is wrong be default. It lacks reality, analysis (unless being a fan of Fox News and State Dept speeches, and recounting their thoughts counts as analysis). How very sad indeed!!!

Pakistan would be defeated in Afghanistan only if it was fighting there - it is the NATO and ISAF fighting there, not Pakistan.

 

[VCheng]

........... All Pakistan wants to do is to make sure Afghanistan doesn't become an Indian base for trouble-making; there is no need for any further depth beyond that goal.

...... while India sees a good opportunity to create a base for opening up Pakistan's western flank to a low grade conflict that will mire and bleed Pakistan, just like India in Kashmir.

That is why it s a great pity that Pakistan's policies have the distinct danger to create an adversary out of USA when that could have been easily avoided. Surely Pakistan must realize that USA as a partner is much more conducive to Pakistan's interests than an adversary that India will find to its liking in the Afghan theater.