Pakistan-Russia: can old rivals be strategic partners?

[Dazzler]

True with your first point but what do you think Pakistan can offer Russia that may offset the Indian militaries budget? Nothing, as far as I can see. Would you think that anyone, Russia included would unnecessarily put 10's of billions at risk for something that none of you can define? Countries, as you said look out for their interests & to put it simply, it's not in Russian interest to irritate India, especially when as you might have noticed, India has other options. The Russians do not necessarily offer technologies to India because they want to; they do it because they feel that they have to, especially to offset some of the technological edge that their western competitors may have. Russian & Indian closeness today (as opposed to during the cold war days) is a matter of mutual benefit not of any largesse. That hasn't changed & while Pakistan can certainly look at improving relations with Russia, any idea that Russia might change its outlook to make Pakistan a more preferred partner as opposed to India is , i'm afraid, a product of desperate minds searching for crumbs rather than a well thought out analysis.

Access to Gwadar deep sea port, thus access to blue waters which the Russians are anxious about, trade is the name of the game these days.

 

[Sashan]

Access to Gwadar deep sea port, thus access to blue waters which the Russians are anxious about, trade is the name of the game these days.

Won't it be beneficial to Russia going for Chah bahar port of Iran along with the billions of defence dollars from India vs Gwadar port?

 

[SamantK]

Access to Gwadar deep sea port, thus access to blue waters which the Russians are anxious about, trade is the name of the game these days.

Russian need for warm waters is overstated according to me, they would choose Iran over Pakistan at least they know where thier loyalty lies...

 

[Dazzler]

Won't it be beneficial to Russia going for Chah bahar port of Iran along with the billions of defence dollars from India vs Gwadar port?

Go to Google Earth and check out how a "deep sea" port is different to a conventional port, neither Chah Bahar, nor Karachi, nor Dubai or any other port in this region can be classified as a deep sea port. Gwadar is almost like an island connected to the mainland Baluchistan via a small land strip.

Russian need for warm waters is overstated according to me, they would choose Iran over Pakistan at least they know where thier loyalty lies...

So according to you, this is something that you know but Russians dont?

 

[SamantK]

So according to you, this is something that you know but Russians dont?

What I don't get is that only Pakistan stresses on the Russian need for warm waters and that too from a very long time..

 

[Sashan]

Go to Google Earth and check out how a "deep sea" port is different to a conventional port, neither Chah Bahar, nor Karachi, nor Dubai or any other port in this region can be classified as a deep sea port. Gwadar is almost like an island connected to the mainland Baluchistan via a small land strip.



So according to you, this is something that you know but Russians dont?

sorry my bad - I thought the highlighted one was for me. Edited my original post.

 

[Dazzler]

What I don't get is that only Pakistan stresses on the Russian need for warm waters and that too from a very long time..

Russia is not the only country to see this as an important factor in years to come, China has seen it much earlier, there is a reason why China spent more bucks than Pakistan on Gwadar development.

 

[SamantK]

Russia is not the only country to see this as an important factor in years to come, China has seen it much earlier, there is a reason why China spent more bucks than Pakistan on Gwadar development.

Agreed, warm water port has its advantages but those advantages have diminished over time due to many factors, and Iran being a better ally of Russia can fulfill the need.. Pakistan has an advantage there but not such a overbearing one which would tip the scales in it's favor in every situation.

 

[Sashan]

Russia is not the only country to see this as an important factor in years to come, China has seen it much earlier, there is a reason why China spent more bucks than Pakistan on Gwadar development.

I believe the reason is more to do with geopolitics rather than the economics. Russia-China axis and the SCO is meant to offset the US and its allies' influence. I believe Russia will attach more importance to SCO than India unless India shows the promised growth in the next 2-3 decades. And I do not believe Russia's policy would be India or Pakistan. Russia will have a separate relationship going with India as it knows India will not want to join SCO(Russia would want India to join SCO though) as it will strengthen only China's influence vs US while India feels it will be taking a backseat within SCO. Russia feels that India will stay neutral but if India gravitates towards US, it will become a rival for Russia. I believe Russia senses that and feels the need to cultivate its relationship with Pakistan as it will be a strategic partnership between China-Russia-Pakistan-other central Asia countries as part of the SCO.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Won't it be beneficial to Russia going for Chah bahar port of Iran along with the billions of defence dollars from India vs Gwadar port?

You are ill informed and lack analytical abilities.

Anyone who trades through Iran, will not get an entry into the middle east.
As simple as that.

The only markets which are over flowing with cash at this point in time is Middle East ( arab part ).
Pakistan has good , if not more favorable than other trade ties with those countries.

Therefore it makes more sense to partner with Pakistan / Gawadar.

 

[SamantK]

Anyone who trades through Iran, will not get an entry into the middle east.
As simple as that.

The only markets which are over flowing with cash at this point in time is Middle East ( arab part ).
Pakistan has good , if not more favorable than other trade ties with those countries.

Therefore it makes more sense to partner with Pakistan / Gawadar.

Can u elaborate how you have come to the embolded statement, any references? Or is it just what you think?

Also trade can take place through other countries, Iran is not needed but Iran's port can be used for warm water access..

 

[Sashan]

You are ill informed and lack analytical abilities.

Anyone who trades through Iran, will not get an entry into the middle east.
As simple as that.

The only markets which are over flowing with cash at this point in time is Middle East ( arab part ).
Pakistan has good , if not more favorable than other trade ties with those countries.

Therefore it makes more sense to partner with Pakistan / Gawadar.

Do you believe it is a zero-sum game? I suggest looking up UAE/Iran trade and it will put things in perspective for you.

 

[fatman17]

Indian officials concerned at Russian tilt towards Pakistan.

Rahul Bedi, New Delhi Section:

2012-Oct-05


Indian officials have reacted with alarm after Russia postponed a defence ministerial meeting, apparently so its officials could meet Pakistan's top soldier in Moscow.

Sources said that Russia is reacting to India's diversification of its supply base, in particular its choice of US materiel over Russian systems

Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials are concerned over the abrupt postponement by Moscow of the annual India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Military-Technical Co-operation (IRIGC-MTC) that was to be held in New Delhi on 5 October 2012.

On 5 October 2012, India confirmed that it would be buying 22 Boeing AH-64D Longbow Block III Apache attack helicopters rather than Russia's Mil Mi-28NE. (PEO Aviation) Officials believe the meeting was moved to 10 October 2012 to allow Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov to meet Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, who arrived in Moscow on a four-day visit on 3 October intended to build closer bilateral military and strategic ties between the two largely estranged countries.

"Serdyukov deferring his visit to India could be directly linked to General Kayani's presence in Moscow," a senior Indian military officer commented, adding that Moscow was likely seeking closer defence links with Pakistan ahead of the drawdown of US-led forces in Afghanistan in 2014: a move that will reinforce Pakistan's key role in the region.

Officially, the MoD in New Delhi downplayed the postponement of the IRIGC-MTC meeting, saying in a 3 October statement that the Russian defence minister had been "required to stay back for urgent participation in a programme of the Russian President", which it identified as an amphibious military exercise.

Since the early 1960s, India has acquired more than USD40 billion worth of military equipment - comprising more than 70% of its inventory - from the Soviet Union and Russia. There is growing unease among senior MoD and military officials over the possibility of Russia, which is India's principal materiel provider, selling weapons to Pakistan in response to Delhi's diversification of its supply base to include European, Israeli, and US vendors.

Since 2002, Russia's monopoly has been challenged by the United States, which has secured Indian military contracts worth more than USD8 billion and is in negotiations to supply additional equipment. This includes 22 Boeing AH-64D Longbow Block III Apache attack helicopters, which chief of air force Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne confirmed as having been chosen over Russia's Mil Mi-28NE in the IAF's heavy-attack helicopter competition on 5 October 2012.

"If Delhi is expanding its basket of military equipment suppliers, Moscow too is keen to explore all its options as a seller by not confining itself exclusively to India," retired Lieutenant General Vijay Kapur stated. He added that Pakistan was a good potential customer for "cheap and hardy Russian equipment, and much to India's chagrin, Moscow will look to exploit that avenue".

 

[Trisonics]

Indian officials concerned at Russian tilt towards Pakistan.

Rahul Bedi, New Delhi Section:

2012-Oct-05


Indian officials have reacted with alarm after Russia postponed a defence ministerial meeting, apparently so its officials could meet Pakistan's top soldier in Moscow.

Sources said that Russia is reacting to India's diversification of its supply base, in particular its choice of US materiel over Russian systems

I could not find a credible link for the article above. Mr Think Tank, Please do the needful.

 

[SamranAli]

I believe the reason is more to do with geopolitics rather than the economics. Russia-China axis and the SCO is meant to offset the US and its allies' influence. I believe Russia will attach more importance to SCO than India unless India shows the promised growth in the next 2-3 decades. And I do not believe Russia's policy would be India or Pakistan. Russia will have a separate relationship going with India as it knows India will not want to join SCO(Russia would want India to join SCO though) as it will strengthen only China's influence vs US while India feels it will be taking a backseat within SCO. Russia feels that India will stay neutral but if India gravitates towards US, it will become a rival for Russia. I believe Russia senses that and feels the need to cultivate its relationship with Pakistan as it will be a strategic partnership between China-Russia-Pakistan-other central Asia countries as part of the SCO.

Please tell this to your indian fellows too.