pakistani342
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Good read: It is encouraging that contingency plans are being planned for the worst case scenario - but I guess given the competence of the Pakistani State not much should be expected.
Markets are the best predictors of futures and the rising house prices in Peshawar are an ominous sign.
I think we're also fast loosing out on the window to push out the Afghan refugees who exert an enormous burden on the Pakistani state - but I guess that's wishing for too much.
The original article can be read here.
.......
Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
ISLAMABAD: Recognising the realities on the ground leading to fast changing events inside Afghanistan, with no one having a clue to what might happen subsequently after Nato withdraws next year, Pakistan is focusing on how to ‘secure’ its own territory, as it does not rule out a ‘civil war’ once again. It appears to be ready to face a blowback this time around.
It is for this reason that it realises that it is imperative to focus on a ‘contingency plan’ and avoid a situation where its own fragile internal security receives a further jolt from its western borders.
“It is difficult to understand and uncertainties surround us —— but if nothing moves we are heading towards a civil war (inside Afghanistan) which we want to avoid. Specially, if all reconciliation efforts do not succeed then there is likelihood of civil war. Then there will be a spillover into Pakistan and this will create its own problems, especially from the Pakistan Taliban”, said diplomatic sources in a meeting with the media here.
It is for this reason, said one of them, that this contingency plan has to ensure a scenario, which ensures that Pakistan’s own territory is well protected.As prices of property keep rising in areas outside Peshawar in anticipation of what comes next from across the Durrand Line, at this point the diplomat said the government could not contemplate the number of Afghan refugees that could flow in if there is a civil war.
However, there appeared some room for optimism, the diplomat said even though the Afghan Taliban have closed their Qatar office temporarily to protest demands that they remove a sign which said that the Qatar office was that of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
“This could just be a ‘tactical’ move by the Afghan Taliban to get noticed. The situation was mishandled in Qatar. However, talks can still be held in places other than the Qatar office, and also talks with the Northern Alliance can be held separately”, added the diplomat.
Another ‘tactical’ move that Pakistan points out is when out of sheer frustration with Hamid Karzai, Obama has threatened considering speeding up the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, ensuring that there would be none left after 2014.
Refusing to take the bait as Karzai’s rhetoric against Pakistan broke all barriers recently, the diplomat refused to get ruffled and instead said: “While Karzai is trying to become popular (domestically) when he takes on Pakistan and the US, our relations are very critical and Pakistan should look for immediate objectives. Of course the US will be happy to see the Taliban talk the Afghan High Peace Council even if it is under protest”.
Pakistan is also getting a sense that some Taliban groups are getting tired of the war and efforts should be made to get other such like-minded groups to support them. “Otherwise the hardliners will take over “, he said.
His comments came at a time when the Pakistani Taliban announced the dismissal of its spokesman, Ehsanullah Ehsan, signaling a further split amongst the militants.
.......
@ADMINs
I forgot to put the correct title on this thread -- could you please change the title to: "Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan" - I can't seem to be able to do that.
Thanks.
Markets are the best predictors of futures and the rising house prices in Peshawar are an ominous sign.
I think we're also fast loosing out on the window to push out the Afghan refugees who exert an enormous burden on the Pakistani state - but I guess that's wishing for too much.
The original article can be read here.
.......
Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan
ISLAMABAD: Recognising the realities on the ground leading to fast changing events inside Afghanistan, with no one having a clue to what might happen subsequently after Nato withdraws next year, Pakistan is focusing on how to ‘secure’ its own territory, as it does not rule out a ‘civil war’ once again. It appears to be ready to face a blowback this time around.
It is for this reason that it realises that it is imperative to focus on a ‘contingency plan’ and avoid a situation where its own fragile internal security receives a further jolt from its western borders.
“It is difficult to understand and uncertainties surround us —— but if nothing moves we are heading towards a civil war (inside Afghanistan) which we want to avoid. Specially, if all reconciliation efforts do not succeed then there is likelihood of civil war. Then there will be a spillover into Pakistan and this will create its own problems, especially from the Pakistan Taliban”, said diplomatic sources in a meeting with the media here.
It is for this reason, said one of them, that this contingency plan has to ensure a scenario, which ensures that Pakistan’s own territory is well protected.As prices of property keep rising in areas outside Peshawar in anticipation of what comes next from across the Durrand Line, at this point the diplomat said the government could not contemplate the number of Afghan refugees that could flow in if there is a civil war.
However, there appeared some room for optimism, the diplomat said even though the Afghan Taliban have closed their Qatar office temporarily to protest demands that they remove a sign which said that the Qatar office was that of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
“This could just be a ‘tactical’ move by the Afghan Taliban to get noticed. The situation was mishandled in Qatar. However, talks can still be held in places other than the Qatar office, and also talks with the Northern Alliance can be held separately”, added the diplomat.
Another ‘tactical’ move that Pakistan points out is when out of sheer frustration with Hamid Karzai, Obama has threatened considering speeding up the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, ensuring that there would be none left after 2014.
Refusing to take the bait as Karzai’s rhetoric against Pakistan broke all barriers recently, the diplomat refused to get ruffled and instead said: “While Karzai is trying to become popular (domestically) when he takes on Pakistan and the US, our relations are very critical and Pakistan should look for immediate objectives. Of course the US will be happy to see the Taliban talk the Afghan High Peace Council even if it is under protest”.
Pakistan is also getting a sense that some Taliban groups are getting tired of the war and efforts should be made to get other such like-minded groups to support them. “Otherwise the hardliners will take over “, he said.
His comments came at a time when the Pakistani Taliban announced the dismissal of its spokesman, Ehsanullah Ehsan, signaling a further split amongst the militants.
.......
@ADMINs
I forgot to put the correct title on this thread -- could you please change the title to: "Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan" - I can't seem to be able to do that.
Thanks.
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