Pakistan quietly preparing for civil war in Afghanistan

[Black Widow]

Pakistan will support taliban always.. Talibans are asset for Pakistan....

 

[karan.1970]

Pakistan will support taliban always.. Talibans are asset for Pakistan....

Last time it resulted in TTP.. Lets see what comes this time.. We will know the actual result in about 10 years from now

 

[Armstrong]

time to seal the border;

on demand, police officials should ask suspicious people to display ID cards....those who fail to comply should be sent to some office where they would be photographed and their thumb-prints taken - and then they be sent off

Afghan embassy should take care of their repatriation.

Pakistan is facing so many disasters - this is one that can seriously impact demographics and more importantly -- the national security. The population growth is already higher than it should be, more explosion of population - and that too of undocumented people - will be disastrous

Wrror, who but the Tribal People & their Levies would be better suited to defending the borders; I once heard a Tribal friend of mine tell me that 'Bajaur mein pathar bhi idhar sei udhar ho jata hai tou hamein pata hota haii tou bandaa tou aur hi baaat haii' - That makes me wonder - Are the Tribal People really on the same page as the Government & the Security Forces or are they just tired as hell because of incessant goof-ups at the Policy & Operational Level by the Government & the Army that they want no part in this war between the Taliban & the Army ?

My Bajauri friend once told me 'Agaii sei Taliban marteii hain...picheiii seiii Fauj martii hai - Hum loggg jain bhii tou kahan jaain....hum thuk gaii hain mayateii (funeral processions) uthaa uthaa kar'

I'd like your opinion on this too @Pakone @haviZsultan @Hyperion @Secur @chauvunist @Hermione G !

How do we get out of this mess without alienating our own people (the Tribals) & putting them through more suffering than this war already has ?

 

[Hyperion]

@Armstrong, mubarak ho sabzay..... pak sar zameen shad abad......

 

[Cheetah786]

Wrror, who but the Tribal People & their Levies would be better suited to defending the borders; I once heard a Tribal friend of mine tell me that 'Bajaur mein pathar bhi idhar sei udhar ho jata hai tou hamein pata hota haii tou bandaa tou aur hi baaat haii' - That makes me wonder - Are the Tribal People really on the same page as the Government & the Security Forces or are they just tired as hell because of incessant goof-ups at the Policy & Operational Level by the Government & the Army that they want no part in this war between the Taliban & the Army ?

My Bajauri friend once told me 'Agaii sei Taliban marteii hain...picheiii seiii Fauj martii hai - Hum loggg jain bhii tou kahan jaain....hum thuk gaii hain mayateii (funeral processions) uthaa uthaa kar'

I'd like your opinion on this too @Pakone @haviZsultan @Hyperion @Secur @chauvunist @Hermione G !

Locals want T.T.P out

KALAM: In the past few years, Swat valley has been occupied by insurgents, undergone a bruising counter-offensive by the army and then flooded by waters that washed away acres of fruit orchards and steeply terraced fields.

In October last year, the valley which lies about 250 km north of Islamabad was again in the global spotlight when gunmen shot schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai.

Now, as villagers try to piece together shattered lives, the military is coming under pressure to talk peace with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Leaders elected in May want to open a dialogue with the homegrown militants set on overthrowing the nuclear-armed state. They say the local people are fed up with the violence and that any talks will be legitimized by US efforts to promote peace with the Afghan Taliban.

But the powerful military, which has spent years chasing the TTP into ever-more remote hideouts, is in no mood to negotiate with militants who have killed thousands of soldiers and who they say cannot be trusted. Some villagers back that stand.

“(The Taliban) doesn’t accept the government’s writ, they are not faithful to the constitution, how can a political party talk to them?” said Abdul Rehman, an elder in the village of Kalam, a former tourist hotspot high in the Swat valley and ringed by snow-capped peaks of the Hindu Khush.

The village is famous for repelling TTP attacks.

“We forced them away, first on our own, then with the help of the army,” Rehman told Reuters during a visit organised by a UN organisation funding flood relief work in his village, which is set among pine forests and walnut orchards.

The debate over whether to open peace talks with the TTP has taken center stage in the country as US troops withdraw from Afghanistan after a 12-year war against the Afghan Taliban.

How do we get out of this mess without alienating our own people (the Tribals) & putting them through more suffering than this war already has ?

The military leaders are at pains to distinguish between the Afghan Taliban, to which Pakistan maintains ties and which they argue can be seen as fighting against occupation, and its local imitators who they see as domestic terrorists.

Local wants TTP taken out Military wants to keep good Taliban and only kill bad Taliban. Have they learn nothing? Or i dont see the big picture i would like some members take on this please.

 

[Pulsar]

The situation is going to degenerate into a civil war only if ALL American troops leave. There are a number of countries wanting a finger in Afghanistan's lucrative pie of immense natural resources amounting to well over a trillion dollars. These are Iran, Central Asian Republics, Russia, India, Northern Alliance, Pakistan, China, and the proxy warlords of these nations.

But the million dollar question is: Would the Americans desert Afghanistan altogether after losing thousands of US soldiers? Would they have died for nothing? Will the USA just leave Afghanistan's precious resources to the wolves? Would it not like to partake in the exploitation of Afghanistan's mineral wealth? Would it not require a base of sorts in Afghanistan to keep an eye on China and Russia and prevent their domination in the region? And then there's Balochistan which seems to be America's next target to neutralize Chinese influence over the Strait of Hormuz. There's too much at stake here. Which means, the Yanks ain't going to get up a run leaving a vacuum in Afghanistan. They have come to stay.

In other words, with at least a division plus worth of American troops and some NATO training teams, spec ops dets and logistics elements based in Afghanistan the likelihood of a 'civil' war is remote.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Okay Sir, but exactly what are we doing that will help us prepare for the aftermath of the US withdrawal? I mean, actual, concrete, effective steps, not rhetoric or useless tokens.

As far as picking sides in Afghanistan goes, that's a foreign policy matter, and in the end, we can't decide who shows up in Kabul, that is out of our power.

Among other things, we must bring law and order to the border regions, so that they may not fester problems for themselves and us once the situation deteriorates in Afghanistan. Along with that, stricter controls on possible influx of refugees. The mass migration from Afghanistan into Pakistan's major cities is a problem. What starts to happen is that slums forms, and it's inevitable, and along with those slums are their associated problems of poverty and crime. Perhaps controlling refugee movement is a good idea, it may seem unethical, but frankly, putting our necks on the line in the name of morality has not gotten us very far, that much we can say from experience.

Sealing the border is a long shot, it would require more man power then we can move and more money than we have. Though more of a permanent presence of the army along the border,a long major crossing points would go a long mile. Promoting those areas the army has a presence as trade routes. Along with that, we must put pressure on Karzai to accept the Durand line. the border in it's current state will create more problems for us, we may not forrsee any more problems in the future, but I am sure that having the border in such a state when our neighbour is are constantly at war is not sustainable for us.

Also, in our border regions, we must bring about change and development, not to invade the tribal lifestyle which they may oppose, but to gradually change certain aspects. Tackle illiteracy, set up permanent government and army presence in those areas. Thus bringing about law and order. These steps should also help us drive and keep out militancy, the tribals themselves would then reject extremists elements, not least the taliban.

Getting rid of illiteracy may go a mile in changing the view of people in our border regions, instead of living by their own laws, they will be more open to getting involved in the democratic process, they will vote and they will use that power to overcome local issues. It will also brighten economic prospects of people in that area, making them less vulnerable to extremists and their cash incentives. Once they empower themselves through vote, they wont ever look back.

The above, may seem vague and insignificant. I haven't thought it through so much. All I know is that impending disaster awaits us if we don't fix up in time another round of violence in Afghanistan.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Pakistan will support taliban always.. Talibans are asset for Pakistan....

Stop it, will you?
Is this all you have to contribute?

Last time it resulted in TTP.. Lets see what comes this time.. We will know the actual result in about 10 years from now

I completely disagree.
The same old is repeated by you folks on a daily basis, despite myself and other members having been through this discussion with some of you many times.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

As far as picking sides in Afghanistan goes, that's a foreign policy matter, and in the end, we can't decide who shows up in Kabul, that is out of our power.

Among other things, we must bring law and order to the border regions, so that they may not fester problems for themselves and us once the situation deteriorates in Afghanistan. Along with that, stricter controls on possible influx of refugees. The mass migration from Afghanistan into Pakistan's major cities is a problem. What starts to happen is that slums forms, and it's inevitable, and along with those slums are their associated problems of poverty and crime. Perhaps controlling refugee movement is a good idea, it may seem unethical, but frankly, putting our necks on the line in the name of morality has not gotten us very far, that much we can say from experience.

Sealing the border is a long shot, it would require more man power then we can move and more money than we have. Though more of a permanent presence of the army along the border,a long major crossing points would go a long mile. Promoting those areas the army has a presence as trade routes. Along with that, we must put pressure on Karzai to accept the Durand line. the border in it's current state will create more problems for us, we may not forrsee any more problems in the future, but I am sure that having the border in such a state when our neighbour is are constantly at war is not sustainable for us.

Also, in our border regions, we must bring about change and development, not to invade the tribal lifestyle which they may oppose, but to gradually change certain aspects. Tackle illiteracy, set up permanent government and army presence in those areas. Thus bringing about law and order. These steps should also help us drive and keep out militancy, the tribals themselves would then reject extremists elements, not least the taliban.

Getting rid of illiteracy may go a mile in changing the view of people in our border regions, instead of living by their own laws, they will be more open to getting involved in the democratic process, they will vote and they will use that power to overcome local issues. It will also brighten economic prospects of people in that area, making them less vulnerable to extremists and their cash incentives. Once they empower themselves through vote, they wont ever look back.

The above, may seem vague and insignificant. I haven't thought it through so much. All I know is that impending disaster awaits us if we don't fix up in time another round of violence in Afghanistan.

And you hope to do all that by 2014? Isn't it kind of a short time to develop, educate, seal and govern these areas in a few months, Sir? What have we been waiting for all these years, if we can indeed do even 10% of any of that?

 

[pakistani342]

I think, the only short term step Pakistan can take is to make Pakistan a non-viable destination for Afghan refugees.

Given the limited time to a possible meltdown in Afghanistan I think it is imperative that Pakistan aggressively removes existing Afghan refugees and pass legislation which makes it very difficult them for them to conduct business, access resources, open bank accounts, etc.

That will send a message to anybody contemplating Pakistan is safe harbor plus. The influx of millions more will simply be disastrous for Pakistan.

 

[karan.1970]

I completely disagree.
The same old is repeated by you folks on a daily basis, despite myself and other members having been through this discussion with some of you many times.

We may agree to disagree on this.. But it was really the radicalization of the country under Zia's rule and its glorification of Mujahiddins in the afghan war that eventually led to the mess you find yourself in.. Ones who forget history, are doomed to repeat it..

 

[Jungibaaz]

And you hope to do all that by 2014? Isn't it kind of a short time to develop, educate, seal and govern these areas in a few months, Sir? What have we been waiting for all these years, if we can indeed do even 10% of any of that?

By 2014? Certainly not, try 2020 at the very earliest.
That's when the younger generation that gain a proper education may come of age.
That is when you see change.

This type of effort has never been tried in these areas before, you will see some of the positive effects almost immediately, but it is a long term solution. The short term is to push government policy that I outlined and also, millitary ops tha are on going to cleanse the areas of active militancy.

We may agree to disagree on this.. But it was really the radicalization of the country under Zia's rule and its glorification of Mujahiddins in the afghan war that eventually led to the mess you find yourself in.. Ones who forget history, are doomed to repeat it..

That process started in the 70's, and no doubt it was bad in the long run.
But that, and the situation today, cannot be so simply generalised.

You implied in that earlier post that our support for the taliban has led to the TTP situation of today.
That is incorrect.

 

[Edevelop]

time to seal the border;

Seal as in with Troops or with Fencing ?

Presently with 150,000 personals we have failed. I don't think it would be a good idea to invite those who are guarding 3,323 km long Line of Control on the Eastern Front.

Fencing the border looks difficult. It would require billions of dollars since the Durand Line is 2,640 km long and the terrain is mountainous.

 

[Secur]

@Armstrong

Well , the tribal people have defended the border with Afghanistan since long for free and with effectiveness , let me make it abundantly clear . Unfortunately , they just have been the victim of the geopolitics and the great decisions by the Commander of the Faithfuls by Pakistan . The radicalization that exists today in tribal areas and other parts of the country , never existed until the 80's when the Islamist Zia-ul-Haq thought that he could do himself and the Ummah a favor , by fighting two super powers war . We are in deep shyte , my friend , the radicalization is a worse problem than you and I ever thought . What choice do you think Mr.Musharraf had , except for entering army there instead of getting his country bombed ? As much as the great radicals would like to claim , he had none , unlike Afghanistan , we have/had everything , that country's a hell hole , forget the divine intervention and the graveyard's claim . I wouldn't like to see my country like that , ever .

If I were there , I would have asked your friend , what are the tribal doing besides the militias thing ? I intend no sarcasm here but a serious question . Personally , I think , that the tribal people aren't on the same page with the Pakistan Army due to various reasons , that raises serious questions on the mode of operation of the forces . Remember , this is a battle of winning hearts more than killing the Taliban . But , this is what happens , when the enemy isn't visible and you face threat from everywhere . The tribal have to fight with the forces , because if the other side wins in an extremely unlikely scenario , they risk forfeiting the freedom to these medieval barbarians , they pride themselves on .

Despite the fact that your friend spoke the truth , again I see nothing that the forces could have prevented . Somehow , I feel that the people have already been alienated , mate .

So what can be done ? There's a need to control these rampant Mullahs and the Mullahcracy existing in the country , the time has come to check every single religious institutions to make sure that they aren't a threat to the national security . Next , there's a need to make an example out of a large number of radicals/terrorists/extremists , you will see the radicalized masses mend their ways themselves , psychology of fear at play . Next , we should rethink our policy with Afghanistan , if there's a need to restrict the movement on the border , about time we do it . The country's going to descend into civil war after 2014 let there be no doubt . On army operations , increase the intensity , enter the few isolated areas and clear them , time has come for the final battle in a couple of areas to control the situation adequately , this laxness to control these militants is something I do not understand , why postpone the inevitable final battle with these bastardos ? I mean , look at the areas we have cleared thus far , what difficulty are we having in clearing the rest few ? WHAT ? We gain nothing by diplomacy here with these extremists , something all politicians should understand for the good of the country because they aren't getting nothing if the country's fcuked up beyond repair .

 

[Marwat Khan Lodhi]

Wrror, who but the Tribal People & their Levies would be better suited to defending the borders; I once heard a Tribal friend of mine tell me that 'Bajaur mein pathar bhi idhar sei udhar ho jata hai tou hamein pata hota haii tou bandaa tou aur hi baaat haii' - That makes me wonder - Are the Tribal People really on the same page as the Government & the Security Forces or are they just tired as hell because of incessant goof-ups at the Policy & Operational Level by the Government & the Army that they want no part in this war between the Taliban & the Army ?

My Bajauri friend once told me 'Agaii sei Taliban marteii hain...picheiii seiii Fauj martii hai - Hum loggg jain bhii tou kahan jaain....hum thuk gaii hain mayateii (funeral processions) uthaa uthaa kar'

I'd like your opinion on this too @Pakone @haviZsultan @Hyperion @Secur @chauvunist @Hermione G !

How do we get out of this mess without alienating our own people (the Tribals) & putting them through more suffering than this war already has ?

honestly i dont see any solution to taliban problem in coming decade.