Yankee-stani
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At 72, Pakistan has survived another turbulent decade that was marked with political instability, insecurity, and stunted economic growth. Will Pakistan continue to tread on this path of instability in the next decade or can we possibly expect anything different? The patterns extracted from data and evidence suggests both. There is all the evidence of Pakistan lingering on with its issues but at the same time, there is ample evidence to suggest otherwise. The key is if the stakeholders in the country are able to come to terms with each other on where they want to take Pakistan. Here are a few key things to expect in the next decade in Pakistan.
Will Pakistan continue to tread on this path of instability in the next decade or can we possibly expect anything different? The patterns extracted from data and evidence suggests both.
Political Reset:
Pakistan’s political landscape for decades was shaped by two political parties: PPP and PMLN, with the establishment as a key player in the background. That changed with PTI as a third entrant in the government. As is the case globally, Pakistan will continue to have deep-rooted political instability in the next decade. This is not only because of Pakistan’s turbulent political turf and complicated civil-military relations but also because of the advent of technology including social media that has taken the power away from the state. This is also because as an outsider in the politics Prime Minister Imran Khan will continue his accountability drive with a vigor that will shake the traditional political set up in Pakistan. It will take the entire decade or more before a revised political bargain is achieved and there is a new normal in politics in the country. Rest assured, the next decade will witness a political reset in Pakistan that is likely going to be shaped the way PTI conducts its politics in the country. It will be a tough decade for political dynasties.
Military losing power:
The next decade is also likely going to be a tough one of the military that will see its power being challenged across every front. This is in part because of its overreach and exposure that has resulted in creating vulnerability for the institution. The judiciary and military are likely going to clash over rule of law and exertion of power with political forces including the PM becoming part of the larger politics. However, given all the evidence from the last decade, it appears that the military in Pakistan is fast losing its options. For instance, it has lost political capital with major political parties in Pakistan including the PMLN, PPP and even with PTI after the recent events. It has also come at odds with the judiciary and media. More importantly, after former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment narrative, the public has become tolerant of criticism against the military. This all suggests that for the military, the next decade will not just be turbulent but also a step down from unquestionable power.
Deep Polarization Because of Digital Media:
One of the oft-neglected areas is the impact of digital media on Pakistan’s national politics. All data and evidence from the last decade point to a disturbing reality of political polarization and growing extremism in the country due to the advent of digital media and fake news. This essentially means that not only the minority groups but also dissenting voices will be at more risk of false blasphemy accusations.
Furthermore, the extensive digital media spending by the political parties and institutions is not only inducing a culture of intolerance over digital media but also pitching the public against each other over political issues. This politicization of the digital space in Pakistan is likely going to have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan’s national unity, ethos, and stability.
Youth Emerging in Politics:
One of the most exciting and positive things to expect in the next decade is the entry and rise of young political leaders in Pakistan. There is plenty of data and evidence to predict this trend. First, the sheer demography with 65% of the country under the age of 30 means that more and more young individuals will be forcing their way in the political sphere. Second, with the change in technology and digital media becoming a prominent part of the political landscape, the young leaders are not only more adept at digital media but also using it innovatively to create political capital for themselves. For instance, the recent student protests in the country brought out new names in the Pakistani political turf that are being taken seriously by the media and policy community. Third, many young and educated individuals have returned to Pakistan with higher education from abroad through Fulbright, Chevening and even after Ph.D.’s to contribute back to society. These young leaders are pushing to change the traditional political setup and the next decade will see many of these becoming the future leaders in the country.
https://blackbox.nervecenter.live/pakistan-in-the-next-decade-what-to-expect-in-national-politics/
Will Pakistan continue to tread on this path of instability in the next decade or can we possibly expect anything different? The patterns extracted from data and evidence suggests both.
Political Reset:
Pakistan’s political landscape for decades was shaped by two political parties: PPP and PMLN, with the establishment as a key player in the background. That changed with PTI as a third entrant in the government. As is the case globally, Pakistan will continue to have deep-rooted political instability in the next decade. This is not only because of Pakistan’s turbulent political turf and complicated civil-military relations but also because of the advent of technology including social media that has taken the power away from the state. This is also because as an outsider in the politics Prime Minister Imran Khan will continue his accountability drive with a vigor that will shake the traditional political set up in Pakistan. It will take the entire decade or more before a revised political bargain is achieved and there is a new normal in politics in the country. Rest assured, the next decade will witness a political reset in Pakistan that is likely going to be shaped the way PTI conducts its politics in the country. It will be a tough decade for political dynasties.
Military losing power:
The next decade is also likely going to be a tough one of the military that will see its power being challenged across every front. This is in part because of its overreach and exposure that has resulted in creating vulnerability for the institution. The judiciary and military are likely going to clash over rule of law and exertion of power with political forces including the PM becoming part of the larger politics. However, given all the evidence from the last decade, it appears that the military in Pakistan is fast losing its options. For instance, it has lost political capital with major political parties in Pakistan including the PMLN, PPP and even with PTI after the recent events. It has also come at odds with the judiciary and media. More importantly, after former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment narrative, the public has become tolerant of criticism against the military. This all suggests that for the military, the next decade will not just be turbulent but also a step down from unquestionable power.
Deep Polarization Because of Digital Media:
One of the oft-neglected areas is the impact of digital media on Pakistan’s national politics. All data and evidence from the last decade point to a disturbing reality of political polarization and growing extremism in the country due to the advent of digital media and fake news. This essentially means that not only the minority groups but also dissenting voices will be at more risk of false blasphemy accusations.
Furthermore, the extensive digital media spending by the political parties and institutions is not only inducing a culture of intolerance over digital media but also pitching the public against each other over political issues. This politicization of the digital space in Pakistan is likely going to have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan’s national unity, ethos, and stability.
Youth Emerging in Politics:
One of the most exciting and positive things to expect in the next decade is the entry and rise of young political leaders in Pakistan. There is plenty of data and evidence to predict this trend. First, the sheer demography with 65% of the country under the age of 30 means that more and more young individuals will be forcing their way in the political sphere. Second, with the change in technology and digital media becoming a prominent part of the political landscape, the young leaders are not only more adept at digital media but also using it innovatively to create political capital for themselves. For instance, the recent student protests in the country brought out new names in the Pakistani political turf that are being taken seriously by the media and policy community. Third, many young and educated individuals have returned to Pakistan with higher education from abroad through Fulbright, Chevening and even after Ph.D.’s to contribute back to society. These young leaders are pushing to change the traditional political setup and the next decade will see many of these becoming the future leaders in the country.
https://blackbox.nervecenter.live/pakistan-in-the-next-decade-what-to-expect-in-national-politics/
