Pakistan in Peril

[Kasrkin]

Yes it does. Using religious extremism (Jehad = holy war) to further a political agenda is terrorism.

You're understanding of the concept of Jihad is obviously non-existent. Jihad is not synonymous with war or terrorism. And neither is war or terrorism synonymous. If you're aim is to brand all Muslims engaging in martial activates 'terrorists' then you are failing miserably. Terrorism, as is widely acknowledged, is not limited to any religion or particular style of warfare. It is simply a word to describe the conscious targeting of civilians, be that the gun-men in Mumbai or Indian forces in the valley.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

What kind of freedom will be protected by dropping a bomb in your own territory?

The freedom from life!

You mean to say that if the PA were to advance into Indian territory and populated areas, the Indian Military would not fire a single bullet to stop our occupation and advance for fear of inflicting collateral damage?

 

[Vinod2070]

You mean to say that if the PA were to advance into Indian territory and populated areas, the Indian Military would not fire a single bullet to stop our occupation and advance for fear of inflicting collateral damage?

We are talking of nukes in your own civilian areas!

I am sure no other country would even think about it.

Not to be compared with retaliatory conventional action or possibly trying to capture enemy areas as a bargaining chip.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

We are talking of nukes in your own civilian areas!

I am sure no other country would even think about it.

Not to be compared with retaliatory conventional action or possibly trying to capture enemy areas as a bargaining chip.

A nuke is a weapon system like any other. No one is talking about nuking all of Pakistan, what is being discussed is a hypothetical scenario in which an Indian Armor formation might be nuked - a limited area.

Even if we were to saturate the area with conventional weapons alone - artillery fire, rockets and air strikes - the collateral damage would be horrendous, and quite frankly that is what will be attempted first anyway.

Again this is a hypothetical, whether or not Pakistan made this threat is not yet verified.

It is retaliatory military action, when conventional capabilities may be overwhelmed.

 

[Vinod2070]

A nuke is a weapon system like any other. No one is talking about nuking all of Pakistan, what is being discussed is a hypothetical scenario in which an Indian Armor formation might be nuked - a limited area.

Even if we were to saturate the area with conventional weapons alone - artillery fire, rockets and air strikes - the collateral damage would be horrendous, and quite frankly that is what will be attempted first anyway.

Again this is a hypothetical, whether or not Pakistan made this threat is not yet verified.

It is retaliatory military action, when conventional capabilities may be overwhelmed.

We are obviously assuming that this guy knows his stuff. His opinions one may not agree with, facts are a different matter if he really has those contacts that are claimed.

Nuke is different from conventional weapons for sure. It renders the area inhabitable for years if not generations. There is the aftermath that is more horrible than the immediate effects.

Surely using nukes is not to be taken lightly, especially inside one's own country.

I guess if this is anywhere near true, you can't call 'em Yanks paranoid!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

We are obviously assuming that this guy knows his stuff. His opinions one may not agree with, facts are a different matter if he really has those contacts that are claimed.

Nuke is different from conventional weapons for sure. It renders the area inhabitable for years if not generations. There is the aftermath that is more horrible than the immediate effects.

Surely using nukes is not to be taken lightly, especially inside one's own country.

I guess if this is anywhere near true, you can't call 'em Yanks paranoid!

He knows his stuff - but without corroboration from other sources, I do not see how everythign he mentions shoudl be taken on face value. And to that effect the fact that even some Indian defense analysts have admitted that the PA managed to deny the IA the advantage with a rapid mobilization, there is no reason to believe that Pakistan would have made such a threat, since it was not in a defensive and weak position.

Now if the roles had been reversed, and the PA was still mobilizing while the IA was ready at the border, I could see how such a threat could have been made.

However this allegation seems even more bogus when you think that if there was an overwhelming failure of conventional forces, Pakistan would not have to nuke IA formations just in Sindh, but all along the IB and in the rest of Pakistan. In such a situation, nukes would be targeted at India, not within Pakistan.

Going back to nukes, using tactical nukes on a small area for denying the opposing side a far greater advantage I do not see as cause for 'paranoia'. Collateral damage will occur - but the loss of life would be relatively equivalent to a massive artillery and bombing campaign on the same area.

 

[Vinod2070]

Going back to nukes, using tactical nukes on a small area for denying the opposing side a far greater advantage I do not see as cause for 'paranoia'. Collateral damage will occur - but the loss of life would be relatively equivalent to a massive artillery and bombing campaign on the same area.

You are talking of small sized nukes that have no after effect and little or no radiation fallout.

These are advanced weapons. I am not sure you guys have them or they are perfected enough.

If the allegation is bogus, then there is nothing to discuss. Given his general air of knowledge and scholarly demeanor, I tend to believe him on the facts that he presented.

 

[Kasrkin]

I am sure no other country would even think about it.

Again with the dehumanizing, eh? Old habits die hard I guess...

And what makes you so damn sure Pakistan has thought about this course of action? It goes against logic. It takes the armored columns of Indian Strike Corps about 3 whole weeks to reach our borders after the order for attack has been given. 3 weeks! That’s plenty of time for us not only to target your strike corps, but annihilate them completely as whole corps worth of inbound armor makes a pretty tempting prospect for a nuclear strike. If we were so suicidal-ly hell-bent on nuking ourselves and the region, won't that be the most appropriate time to nuke you and run for it? We'll get the logistics and the armor is one swift sweep, with more nukes to concentrate on the cities. By what military sense exactly I ask, if war is imminent, would we wait for them to break through to Nawabshah or something before we push the red button?

As it were, your argument is rubbish. Due to these very factors of delayed deployment and vulnerability of Indian strike corps while in transit, the Indian Army was compelled to come up with a new doctrine called the Cold War which envisions a MAXIMUM of 50 KM penetration into Pakistani territory (if lucky) by your Integrated Battle Groups (IBG). This is hardly anything, none of our population centers are within this range of the border (even Lahore, which is too urbanized and heavily defend for IBGs operations anyway), and still even if we were obliged to nuke you then we would obviously go for your logics which would be within Indian borders (this infrastructure is presently undergoing construction but when completed is not designed to withstand nuclear strikes). That would then make it impossible for IBGs to maintain their offensive postures and will therefore most probably be forced to surrender. And this is only in the case of a limited nuclear exchange BTW, something India hopes to avoid with the Cold War plan in the first place.

There is no room for this retarded possibility with the present Sundarji or future Cold Start Doctrines. So there is little logic or reason behind this allegation of Pakistan nuking their own. Just another attempt by some Indians (or their supports) to belittle Pakistan’s martial and moral credentials, is all...

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You are talking of small sized nukes that have no after effect and little or no radiation fallout.

These are advanced weapons. I am not sure you guys have them or they are perfected enough.

Pakistani scientists have claimed Tactical weapons tests amongst the six carried out.

If the allegation is bogus, then there is nothing to discuss. Given his general air of knowledge and scholarly demeanor, I tend to believe him on the facts that he presented.

I must say that I have to agree with Kasrkin on one aspect of his analysis of you - you heard a guy say one thing on an Internet video, and now that is FACT for you.

A very low level of evidence and corroboration on your part - but hey, so long as it vilifies Pakistan, even absurd theories and accusations are enough for Indians - we saw that in the aftermath of Mumbai.

 

[Vinod2070]

Kasrkin, you are completely losing the plot!

We are discussing the video where Mr. Rashid talks about this threat conveyed by Pakistan to India through the USA. Have you seen the video?

If you don't see any logic and Mr. Rashid can see it, guess who is more credible?

And do let me know any other country that has made such a threat of nuking it's own territory.

So there is no need to go into a tangential analysis.

 

[Vinod2070]

Pakistani scientists have claimed Tactical weapons tests amongst the six carried out.

Possible, I would think it takes more than a single test to perfect a tactical nuke but that is not the point here.

I must say that I have to agree with Kasrkin on one aspect of his analysis of you - you heard a guy say one thing on an Internet video, and now that is FACT for you.

It is not a fact for me. Please try to understand what I meant. This guy is sharing some "facts" and some "opinions". Both are his, not mine.

A very low level of evidence and corroboration on your part - but hey, so long as it vilifies Pakistan, even absurd theories and accusations are enough for Indians - we saw that in the aftermath of Mumbai.

I guess it was clear enough that we are just discussing the video. Where is the need for evidence? If you say that Rashid may not know his facts that is OK.

We took that as a starting point.

 

[Kasrkin]

If you don't see any logic and Mr. Rashid can see it, guess who is more credible?

Mister Rashid is not a military or nuclear expert. Furthermore his claim has not been and cannot be verified by either US or Indian officials (unlike the information I tend to provide), let alone Pakistani ones. It is likely he just spoke out of turn, or spoke on sub-quality information. I'm sure if contronted, he (like you) will have nothing to deny my evaluation.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Possible, I would think it takes more than a single test to perfect a tactical nuke but that is not the point here.

There were a couple I believe, but technically it woudl take more than a single test to validate any weapon system, so Pakistan must not have nukes at all.

It is not a fact for me. Please try to understand what I meant. This guy is sharing some "facts" and some "opinions". Both are his, not mine.

That is not what you said earlier:"Given his general air of knowledge and scholarly demeanor, I tend to believe him on the facts that he presented."

I guess it was clear enough that we are just discussing the video. Where is the need for evidence? If you say that Rashid may not know his facts that is OK.

We took that as a starting point.

You are arguing that his claim is true, based on the fact that Ahmed Rashid made it, and his 'scholarly demeanor and air of knowledge" - that is just silly.

 

[Kasrkin]

You are arguing that his claim is true, based on the fact that Ahmed Rashid made it, and his 'scholarly demeanor and air of knowledge" - that is just silly.

If only he'd felt like this in relation to Brian Cloughley's extensive, well documented and researched piece of literature which incidentally was attested by sources involved in the said matter. Oh the irony...

But I suppose this sort of 3rd rate talk seems to be much more 'believable' by some of the Indian mentality.

 

[Vinod2070]

There were a couple I believe, but technically it woudl take more than a single test to validate any weapon system, so Pakistan must not have nukes at all.

The reliability of the nukes requires many more tests. So the nukes are there with India and Pakistan but their reliability is surely an issue compared to other countries that have conducted dozens of tests.

Of course this doesn't take into account some other factors that can possibly increase the reliability. You know what I mean.

That is not what you said earlier:"Given his general air of knowledge and scholarly demeanor, I tend to believe him on the facts that he presented."

Yes, I said that. That doesn't have much bearing on this argument of the nuclear strike issue. We took his video as a starting point assuming he knew his facts.

I would like to read his book when it comes out. Please don't mix my appreciation for this guy with the current argument.

You are arguing that his claim is true, based on the fact that Ahmed Rashid made it, and his 'scholarly demeanor and air of knowledge" - that is just silly.

No, as I mentioned that is an implicit assumption, the starting point of this debate.