Pakistan Has Settled All Scores With India

[Wood]

Abandoning your friends as soon as they are no longer of use may give you short term gains, but it erodes long term credibility. No country will ever feel safe as an ally of US. As such, no long term commitments can be made.

I disagree to the idea that international relationships are 'friendships'. If India stops buying Russian arms because of an increase in local defense industry production, I can see the possibility of Russia selling fighter jets to Pakistan. International alliances should be decided by forecasting long terms interests of prospective partners. Engage and disengage with other countries based on how this forecast changes.

With an adversary such as China, if India is running a defensive war, we would not need US. US will never provide boots on the ground help to India. They may provide intelligence, tech and equipment help.
Tell me what more can we get from US by completely entering its camp, which we are not getting already.

Interoperability does not always mean boots on ground (in Indian theater). If India is not willing to commit troops on ground for US, then obviously there is no reason for US to do the same. Besides, I don't think any other foreign military will do well in the high altitude mountainous war far in this region. Inter-operability could be mutual defense operations in high seas, sharing strategic offensive weapon technologies, etc. There are plenty of such tech. and weapons systems that US does not wish to share with India with the current level of partnership. While some may think that India can develop these technologies indigenously, I'm skeptical about the timely availability and relative quality of non-US tech. (compared to Chinese weaponry).

 

[magra]

I disagree to the idea that international relationships are 'friendships'. If India stops buying Russian arms because of an increase in local defense industry production, I can see the possibility of Russia selling fighter jets to Pakistan. International alliances should be decided by forecasting long terms interests of prospective partners. Engage and disengage with other countries based on how this forecast changes.

You can disengage from a nation abruptly only if you feel you would never need them again. However, US does not learn this lesson. After driving out Soviets from Afghanistan, it instantly disengaged with Pakistan. This led to massive distrust for US in Pakistan and hence the next time when US needed Pak's help post 9/11, Pakistan only hesitatingly helped while keeping ties open to Taliban.

If Russia ever starts selling weapons to Pakistan to the point that it seriously harms India, then Russia's relations with India would seriously suffer.

Interoperability does not always mean boots on ground (in Indian theater). If India is not willing to commit troops on ground for US, then obviously there is no reason for US to do the same. Besides, I don't think any other foreign military will do well in the high altitude mountainous war far in this region. Inter-operability could be mutual defense operations in high seas, sharing strategic offensive weapon technologies, etc. There are plenty of such tech. and weapons systems that US does not wish to share with India with the current level of partnership. While some may think that India can develop these technologies indigenously, I'm skeptical about the timely availability and relative quality of non-US tech. (compared to Chinese weaponry).

We have to do the cost benefit analysis. How much are we to gain from the US tech on high seas vs how much we are to lose by being a US camp follower.
We have seen that US enters into a lot of reckless and morally dubious conflicts. Do we want to be part of those? I dont think so.
Are we being seriously challenged in Indian ocean right now that we need US tech? I dont think so.

 

[Wood]

You can disengage from a nation abruptly only if you feel you would never need them again. However, US does not learn this lesson. After driving out Soviets from Afghanistan, it instantly disengaged with Pakistan. This led to massive distrust for US in Pakistan and hence the next time when US needed Pak's help post 9/11, Pakistan only hesitatingly helped while keeping ties open to Taliban.
If Russia ever starts selling weapons to Pakistan to the point that it seriously harms India, then Russia's relations with India would seriously suffer.

The Pakistan - US 'alliance' from cold war is the best example that I can cite for 'friendship' based alliances. Both parties did not have a common strategic enemy. Americans wanted to get rid of the communist Soviet Union, while Pakistan was focused on the democratic India. While Pakistan was helping US to defeat the Soviet, they should have realized that the intended outcome will change the forecast for US - Pakistan strategic cooperation.

India should not make the same mistake with the Russian relationship.

We have to do the cost benefit analysis. How much are we to gain from the US tech on high seas vs how much we are to lose by being a US camp follower.
We have seen that US enters into a lot of reckless and morally dubious conflicts. Do we want to be part of those? I dont think so.
Are we being seriously challenged in Indian ocean right now that we need US tech? I dont think so.

Right now is not what you plan and make alliances for. I see the Chinese encirclement a serious threat for the future. The Chinese naval power is under construction and it will proceed at a pace that is much faster than what India can match with (given the disparity in economic resources). India will need interoperability with the US and other parties that view China as a military threat. I don't see other options.

 

[magra]

The Pakistan - US 'alliance' from cold war is the best example that I can cite for 'friendship' based alliances. Both parties did not have a common strategic enemy. Americans wanted to get rid of the communist Soviet Union, while Pakistan was focused on the democratic India. While Pakistan was helping US to defeat the Soviet, they should have realized that the intended outcome will change the forecast for US - Pakistan strategic cooperation.

India should not make the same mistake with the Russian relationship.

Russia does not want India to completely align with US. If Russia sides with Pakistan, thats what will happen. So it is in Russia's interest to not go against core Indian interests.

Right now is not what you plan and make alliances for. I see the Chinese encirclement a serious threat for the future. The Chinese naval power is under construction and it will proceed at a pace that is much faster than what India can match with (given the disparity in economic resources). India will need interoperability with the US and other parties that view China as a military threat. I don't see other options.

Lets not be paranoid. China's initial maritime focus is on South China Sea disputes and Taiwan. It cannot challenge India in Indian ocean till it wins SCS. And we have the Malacca Straits choke point if we feel China is coming to threaten us here.
Right now, ASEAN nations are on the balance between US and China. If China seriously tries to push them on SCS, they will then side with India & US. It would be premature for India to side with US before these nations do.

 

[Wood]

Russia does not want India to completely align with US. If Russia sides with Pakistan, thats what will happen. So it is in Russia's interest to not go against core Indian interests.

Russia has nothing to loose by acting against Indian interests if India cannot be a good defense customer for Russia. On the flip side, India will continue to require Russian support as long as its existing inventory remains Russian. Perhaps the latter is a good reason for India to consider when it comes to procurement of strategic weaponry. I have doubts if Russia will openly support India (by supplying heavy weaponry) during a conflict with China. Doing so will make Russia is not in Russian economic interest.

Lets not be paranoid. China's initial maritime focus is on South China Sea disputes and Taiwan. It cannot challenge India in Indian ocean till it wins SCS. And we have the Malacca Straits choke point if we feel China is coming to threaten us here.
Right now, ASEAN nations are on the balance between US and China. If China seriously tries to push them on SCS, they will then side with India & US. It would be premature for India to side with US before these nations do.

ASEAN countries have historically been client states for China. Only Vietnam has shown clear inclination to resist China. A proper military alliance with the US and shift to US weapon systems etc. will take a decade at least. It is my opinion that India should not wait for shit to hit the fan. At this point, I'm reminded of Nehru having to bend the knee to US disgracefully in the middle of '62 conflict. India will do well to learn from that experience.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nehru-sought-us-help-during-1962-indochina-war-book/article7761071.ece

 

[magra]

Russia has nothing to loose by acting against Indian interests if India cannot be a good defense customer for Russia. On the flip side, India will continue to require Russian support as long as its existing inventory remains Russian. Perhaps the latter is a good reason for India to consider when it comes to procurement of strategic weaponry.

For now, India is not only buying inventory of existing systems from Russia, but buying new strategic systems (eg. S 500). So India is not abandoning Russia anytime soon. Even if percentage wise we will reduce procurement from Russia, it will still be larger than what Pakistan can afford to purchase from Russia (given its smaller size and economy). So Russia cannot afford to side with Pakistan against India.

I have doubts if Russia will openly support India (by supplying heavy weaponry) during a conflict with China. Doing so will make Russia is not in Russian economic interest.

Russia did openly support India in 1971 and threatened China against intervening in BD liberation war. Also, it is in Russia's strategic interest to not let China completely overshadow Russia in its backyard.
And to the same argument you made, China is not reliant on Russian weapons anymore but India is. So it is in Russia's economic interest to supply heavy weaponry to India.

ASEAN countries have historically been client states for China. Only Vietnam has shown clear inclination to resist China. A proper military alliance with the US and shift to US weapon systems etc. will take a decade at least. It is my opinion that India should not wait for shit to hit the fan. At this point, I'm reminded of Nehru having to bend the knee to US disgracefully in the middle of '62 conflict. India will do well to learn from that experience.

Vietnam, Phillipines, Indonesia all have some claims over SCS which conflicts with China. The only reason they are not openly against China is because of the huge trade dependency.
India can get most of the US tech through joint collaboration on the same lines as India has with Russia (Brahmos). There is no need to completely fall in US hands.

At the critical moment, if US decides not to support India against China (to avoid world war or to not harm US interests), then India would not have a fall back option since India would have severed ties with Russia, Iran etc by falling into US camp.

 

[Wood]

For now, India is not only buying inventory of existing systems from Russia, but buying new strategic systems (eg. S 500). So India is not abandoning Russia anytime soon. Even if percentage wise we will reduce procurement from Russia, it will still be larger than what Pakistan can afford to purchase from Russia (given its smaller size and economy). So Russia cannot afford to side with Pakistan against India. Russia did openly support India in 1971 and threatened China against intervening in BD liberation war. Also, it is in Russia's strategic interest to not let China completely overshadow Russia in its backyard.
And to the same argument you made, China is not reliant on Russian weapons anymore but India is. So it is in Russia's economic interest to supply heavy weaponry to India.

India procuring S-500 is news to me. Russia showing willingness to offer is not the same as India buying the weapon. I consider the S-400 purchase to be double edge move. Not only is China well aware of the systems capabilities and flaws by now, but the CAATSA sanctions hanging over head could become problematic as well. Russian support to India during 1971 aligned with their interest, but supporting India in a direct war with China will not be the same. To reiterate what I said earlier, if India achieves its stated strategic aim of indigenizing weapon systems - then why should Russia care about India?

At the critical moment, if US decides not to support India against China (to avoid world war or to not harm US interests), then India would not have a fall back option since India would have severed ties with Russia, Iran etc by falling into US camp.

Nehru asked US air force to come in full force and fight on behalf of India. If Indian pilots and service men are not trained to use American offensive weapon systems, then that is the only form of help that US can be requested to do. On the other hand, if India properly aligns with US now - then India can seek US weapons and man the weapons with its own servicemen. There is a substantial difference.

PS: I feel that I've said everything that I wanted to say on this topic and more. So let's agree to disagree

 

[magra]

India procuring S-500 is news to me.

EXCLUSIVE: India Likely To Be The First Customer Of S-500 Missile Defense System – Russian Deputy PM

Russia’s Deputy PM Yury Borisov said his country has completed tests of its new S-500 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. He also added that Russia has started supplying the missile system to its armed forces and also talked about its export potential to India. China’s Ferocious Naval Fighter...

eurasiantimes.com

Russia showing willingness to offer is not the same as India buying the weapon. I consider the S-400 purchase to be double edge move. Not only is China well aware of the systems capabilities and flaws by now, but the CAATSA sanctions hanging over head could become problematic as well.

US would make a huge hue and cry about it and threaten with CAATSA, but at the end it will either exempt India or only apply it very mildly. US is still looking to sell a lot of weapons to India, and would not want to lose such a big cash cow by applying CAATSA.

Russian support to India during 1971 aligned with their interest, but supporting India in a direct war with China will not be the same. To reiterate what I said earlier, if India achieves its stated strategic aim of indigenizing weapon systems - then why should Russia care about India?

Russia would support by selling weapons, not by directly intervening. In any case, China would not be able to fight both Russia and India at the same time, so it would tolerate Russian weapons sale to India.
India being completely self-reliant in weapons system is still decades away. By that time, Russia would already be largely a spent force and we would not need to worry about them siding with Pakistan.

Nehru asked US air force to come in full force and fight on behalf of India. If Indian pilots and service men are not trained to use American offensive weapon systems, then that is the only form of help that US can be requested to do. On the other hand, if India properly aligns with US now - then India can seek US weapons and man the weapons with its own servicemen. There is a substantial difference.

Can you provide proof of Nehru asking for US airforce help.
Lets agree to disagree on US support for India. US has been known to block critical spares at the time of need and putting a lot of end-user conditions. We would not want to fight with one hand tied.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@Green Machine

Pakistan has since its inception punched well above its weight - India, USSR, USA etc.

Indeed this is true, Pak has always punched above its weight. And I had written on this a year or so back where I had compared Pakistan to another out performer - the Kingdom of Prussia.

Pakistan reminds me of another great strategic state

For very good reason, I use state, not nation. Both states can be described as armies in possession of nations; and not nations in possession of armies. Both took pangas with rivals several times their size and largely got away it. Both were driven by a relentless Drang nach Osten. And by a...

defence.pk

Why is it the only time India fought a country of equal size namely China in 1962 it lost?

Because India is the reverse- a chronic under performer. As to the reason why- faulty ideology?, faulty genes?, poor social structure?- honestly I dont know. Learned maulanas of the forum people like Dada (@Joe Shearer ), Doc (@padamchen) or Kaptaan sb (@Indus Pakistan) maybe able to answer.

Regards

Interesting proposition and coming from you worth my time. But to do justice to it I will leave it for the evening when I have time to mull. But it's clear if India had even punched half it's size South Asia would have had peace for decades by now. Chaos and instability only exist when there is no one clear holder of monopoly of power. Pakistan should have been squashed like a bug and AJK taken by force with a unconditional defeat of Pakistan like Germany. Post such event a new order and era of peace would hold in South Asia. But ..... !

 

[Wood]

EXCLUSIVE: India Likely To Be The First Customer Of S-500 Missile Defense System – Russian Deputy PM

Russia’s Deputy PM Yury Borisov said his country has completed tests of its new S-500 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. He also added that Russia has started supplying the missile system to its armed forces and also talked about its export potential to India. China’s Ferocious Naval Fighter...

eurasiantimes.com

US would make a huge hue and cry about it and threaten with CAATSA, but at the end it will either exempt India or only apply it very mildly. US is still looking to sell a lot of weapons to India, and would not want to lose such a big cash cow by applying CAATSA.

This is what I meant earlier by Russian willingness to sell S-500. It does not mean that India will be lining up to buy. The effects of CAATSA will only be known at the end of year. By law, US is required to sanction India now. There are no known provisions for exemption in this agreement.

Russia would support by selling weapons, not by directly intervening. In any case, China would not be able to fight both Russia and India at the same time, so it would tolerate Russian weapons sale to India. India being completely self-reliant in weapons system is still decades away. By that time, Russia would already be largely a spent force and we would not need to worry about them siding with Pakistan.

Helping India against China would not be in the strategic interest of Russia from economic and geo-strategic perspective. Russia will certainly not have to worry about military conflict with China, like India does not need to worry about US

Can you provide proof of Nehru asking for US airforce help.

I'm just an average guy behind keyboard. I don't have any 'proof' for such state secrets. My opinion on the matter is based on a book by Bruce Riedel. You can read about this below. Be forewarned, it is a depressing disgrace

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nehru-sought-us-help-during-1962-indochina-war-book/article7761071.ece

 

[magra]

This is what I meant earlier by Russian willingness to sell S-500. It does not mean that India will be lining up to buy. The effects of CAATSA will only be known at the end of year. By law, US is required to sanction India now. There are no known provisions for exemption in this agreement.

There is a bipartisan support in US to continue and enhance its ties with India. When push comes to shove, they will be able to tweak CAATSA for India. If India weren't so confident, they would have bowed down and cancelled S-400 deal already.

Helping India against China would not be in the strategic interest of Russia from economic and geo-strategic perspective. Russia will certainly not have to worry about military conflict with China, like India does not need to worry about US

US is not a neighbor to India, but China is a neighbor to Russia. So Russia will need to worry that in future China may stake claim over some Siberian lands - saying they were part of some Chinese empire.

I'm just an average guy behind keyboard. I don't have any 'proof' for such state secrets. My opinion on the matter is based on a book by Bruce Riedel. You can read about this below. Be forewarned, it is a depressing disgrace

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nehru-sought-us-help-during-1962-indochina-war-book/article7761071.ece

Even if we believe this article that Nehru requested US airforce, I am still not convinced that we need to fall in US camp completely. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[baqai]

settled you say? well as our neighbors like to say ... "abhi tu party shru hui hai"

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Indus Pakistan

Kaptaan sb,

Chaos and instability only exist when there is no one clear holder of monopoly of power.

That is an astonishing piece of realism. It reminds me of another equally astute poster ( an Indian Hindu) on chowk.com (now sadly defunct) - whose real name though I dont know- whose proposition although differently worded were quiet similar to yours. His words if I recall correct were that "peace requires hegemony more than justice" or something to that effect. He used to blame Nehru and his gang for that- his theory was that a wiser Nehru would have made India a political and economic behemoth which would have ensured peace and prosperity in the subcontinent as a whole.

Regards

 

[Wood]

Even if we believe this article that Nehru requested US airforce, I am still not convinced that we need to fall in US camp completely. Lets agree to disagree.

Indian Prime Minister Nehru’s Letter to JFK on the Sino-Indian War – 11/19/1962 - 2/2 / Documents

With Indian troops being pushed back along the border by Chinese assaults, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru sent a remarkable call for help to President John F. Kennedy. Given the sensitivity of the letter, it remained classified by the Indian government until very recently.

historyinpieces.com

The letters seem to be declassified now

 

[SIPRA]

Indian Prime Minister Nehru’s Letter to JFK on the Sino-Indian War – 11/19/1962 - 2/2 / Documents

With Indian troops being pushed back along the border by Chinese assaults, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru sent a remarkable call for help to President John F. Kennedy. Given the sensitivity of the letter, it remained classified by the Indian government until very recently.

historyinpieces.com

The letters seem to be declassified now

India shall refrain from taking any "pangga" with China, otherwise Nehru's letters to JFK would meed to be retrieved, and redrafted, by Modi 56".