Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[dbc]

PAF getting J10CE actually puts pressure on the americans and shows them that Pakistan has access to the latest AESA tech and longer range BVRs than even the AIM-120D. The US violating strategic military deals will simply not cut it anymore nor affect Pakistan in any way because Pakistan will be able to get the same tech from China at a cheaper rate.

If anything the US has more incentive now that its gone from Afghanistan to have Pakistan take the lead in managing the security situation in Afghanistan esp when Pakistan is on the front line and is going to be affected a lot more and first before the US homeland. There is a great degree of strategic/security divergence.

In that case it would be favorable for the US to provide the latest F16Vs/upgrade kits and the AH-1Zs that were ordered many years ago. I see right now being a huge opportunity for US/Pakistan strategic ties improving signicantly based upon Pakistan leverage in Afghanistan/China and India's weaknesses.

if Chinese platforms are cheaper and on-par with US hardware then procuring US hardware make zero sense - does it? Go Chinese, go J10C, go Z10…

 

[iLION12345_1]

PAF getting J10CE actually puts pressure on the americans and shows them that Pakistan has access to the latest AESA tech and longer range BVRs than even the AIM-120D. The US violating strategic military deals will simply not cut it anymore nor affect Pakistan in any way because Pakistan will be able to get the same tech from China at a cheaper rate.

If anything the US has more incentive now that its gone from Afghanistan to have Pakistan take the lead in managing the security situation in Afghanistan esp when Pakistan is on the front line and is going to be affected a lot more and first before the US homeland. There is a great degree of strategic/security divergence.

In that case it would be favorable for the US to provide the latest F16Vs/upgrade kits and the AH-1Zs that were ordered many years ago. I see right now being a huge opportunity for US/Pakistan strategic ties improving signicantly based upon Pakistan leverage in Afghanistan/China and India's weaknesses.

Pressure on USA? How? They have no obligation or reason to sell anything to Pakistan. Nor do they feel pressured by Pakistan buying weapons from China. PAF would buy F-16V in a heartbeat if it was possible over J-10C, that’s the reality of it. The F-16V is likely more capable than the J-10C anyways, and new American missiles would be much more useful for Pakistan because of their compatibility with older F-16s than Chinese missiles which it already has with J-10.

Sure People want to believe that Pakistan “won” by US’ exit of Afghanistan but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, Pakistan can’t pressure the US to do anything, the new development here, and the actual victory for Pakistan in my book, Is that the US can no longer pressure Pakistan to do anything either.

USA never had any incentive over Pakistan in regards to Afghanistan exit anyways, they weren’t going to get bases Wether they sold F-16 of F-35 because Pakistan has other consequences in mind.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

There is absolutely no, I repeat no major weapon system purchases from the US on the horizon. None, zilch. Regardless of what people say about a rapprochement, the contrary is the truth. Once US leave Afghanistan, Pakistan will be rolled through mud and dirt. Tough days ahead for Pakistan in the Western hemisphere. There is hardly a silver lining to be found. Get with the reality of life and adjust accordingly.

 

[iLION12345_1]

There is absolutely no, I repeat no major weapon system purchases from the US on the horizon. None, zilch. Regardless of what people say about a rapprochement, the contrary is the truth. Once US leave Afghanistan, Pakistan will be rolled through mud and dirt. Tough days ahead for Pakistan in the Western hemisphere. There is hardly a silver lining to be found. Get with the reality of life and adjust accordingly.

People love going to two extremes instantly when something happens, you instantly went to the other one. Relations between two countries aren’t defined in terms of weapon purchases, nor are Pakistan-US relations in the gutter, they’ve been far far worst.
There’s no sanctions. PAK-US trade is at its highest in history and US can’t pressure Pakistan to do anything anymore (and vice versa). That’s about it, they’ve been the same for a few years now, not much is changing
Going forward.

Yes there is little chance of major weapons sales from the US to Pakistan, but that’s a consequence of who Pakistan had aligned themselves with historically (China) and who US wants to align themselves with now (india, since they need an ally against China). And honestly nobody can blame the US for trying to work for its national interests even if it means ignoring “alliances”, I wish Pakistan was that ballsy about its national interests (though I’d never justify the US **** up in Afghanistan the same way).
US was never going to be able to play both the Pakistan and the India cards at once due to both the countries opposite relations with China. Pakistan already knew that and moved away from any major US weapons sales on its own once it realized what was happening and a couple of them were blocked I.e AH-1Z and F-16s. The only reason they held out on trying to get F-16s were kind of a “just in case it happens” with the change in government and the exit of Afghanistan, but it didn’t.
And that changes nothing, because that’s how it’s been for quite a few years now, Pakistan will simply move on and consider other options. Pakistan has always been in the position of doing a lot with the little options it has. Even then, one can never tell the future, US has done backflips many times when it’s needed to for its national interests, there’s always a possibility, just little indication for the near Future

This doesn’t put any pressure on Pakistan’s relations with other western countries either, if US was really trying to block sales to pakistan it would be pressuring European countries to stop too, as it has done in the 80s-90s and is doing to other countries. Pakistan is freely buying from Europe and NATO members. The only strained relations are with France, which was the most major supplier of Pakistani arms after US for decades, and I think even those will improve when possible (because that’s what the Pakistani government wants).

Lastly, this gives pakistan an opportunity to work more with Russia, as India tries to get closer to the US because of China, it moves a bit away from Russia, Pakistan can and should fill that gap. This is just how geopolitics change, Pakistan has to play the game too.

In this case the Pakistani military saw ahead and disassociated itself slowly with American equipment before America totally stopped any sales, so our military plans wouldn’t be hurt, so good on them, now let’s see if they can play the future cards better.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

People love going to two extremes instantly when something happens, you instantly went to the other one. Relations between two countries aren’t defined in terms of weapon purchases, nor are Pakistan-US relations in the gutter, they’ve been far far worst.
There’s no sanctions. PAK-US trade is at its highest in history and US can’t pressure Pakistan to do anything anymore (and vice versa). That’s about it, they’ve been the same for a few years now, not much is changing
Going forward.

Yes there is little chance of major weapons sales from the US to Pakistan, but that’s a consequence of who Pakistan had aligned themselves with historically (China) and who US wants to align themselves with now (india, since they need an ally against China). And honestly nobody can blame the US for trying to work for its national interests even if it means ignoring “alliances”, I wish Pakistan was that ballsy about its national interests (though I’d never justify the US **** up in Afghanistan the same way).
US was never going to be able to play both the Pakistan and the India cards at once due to both the countries opposite relations with China. Pakistan already knew that and moved away from any major US weapons sales on its own once it realized what was happening and a couple of them were blocked I.e AH-1Z and F-16s. The only reason they held out on trying to get F-16s were kind of a “just in case it happens” with the change in government and the exit of Afghanistan, but it didn’t.
And that changes nothing, because that’s how it’s been for quite a few years now, Pakistan will simply move on and consider other options. Pakistan has always been in the position of doing a lot with the little options it has. Even then, one can never tell the future, US has done backflips many times when it’s needed to for its national interests, there’s always a possibility, just little indication for the near Future

This doesn’t put any pressure on Pakistan’s relations with other western countries either, if US was really trying to block sales to pakistan it would be pressuring European countries to stop too, as it has done in the 80s-90s and is doing to other countries. Pakistan is freely buying from Europe and NATO members. The only strained relations are with France, which was the most major supplier of Pakistani arms after US for decades, and I think even those will improve when possible (because that’s what the Pakistani government wants).

Lastly, this gives pakistan an opportunity to work more with Russia, as India tries to get closer to the US because of China, it moves a bit away from Russia, Pakistan can and should fill that gap. This is just how geopolitics change, Pakistan has to play the game too.

In this case the Pakistani military saw ahead and disassociated itself slowly with American equipment before America totally stopped any sales, so our military plans wouldn’t be hurt, so good on them, now let’s see if they can play the future cards better.

In principle I agree with what you have written with a few areas of divergence.
1) US is actively slowing or opposing weapons sales to Pakistan from European countries. European countries themselves are not too keen, but the Turkish engine fiasco is a perfect example on how the US is impacting our procurement from others.
2) Alignment with India is more significant than people think. It is very deep and getting deeper. India operates with a zero sum mindset regarding Pakistan. This means US/Pak relations are not likely to normalize. There are too many deep seeded groups within the US who are opposed to this normalization. They'll play spoilers.

My point in my post was not the argue the merits or demerits of US/PK relations. The only observation I was making, with a level of definitiveness is that Pak is not going to buy any major weapon system from the West. Those days are gone. The lines are being drawn and PK is in a different camp now.

The fact that there isn't a complete rupture is similar to why there isn't a complete trading rupture with US/China. These things take time to unravel. But the unraveling has begun.

Lastly I agree weapon sales is not the only barometer to measure relationships between countries. However, given the limited nature of PK/US alignment, weapon sales is a good litmus test, and has been throughout our history with the US. Whenever we have seen a waning of relationships, it is the military relationship that sours. The rest just follows.

 

[iLION12345_1]

In principle I agree with what you have written with a few areas of divergence.
1) US is actively slowing or opposing weapons sales to Pakistan from European countries. European countries themselves are not too keen, but the Turkish engine fiasco is a perfect example on how the US is impacting our procurement from others.
2) Alignment with India is more significant than people think. It is very deep and getting deeper. India operates with a zero sum mindset regarding Pakistan. This means US/Pak relations are not likely to normalize. There are too many deep seeded groups within the US who are opposed to this normalization. They'll play spoilers.

My point in my post was not the argue the merits or demerits of US/PK relations. The only observation I was making, with a level of definitiveness is that Pak is not going to buy any major weapon system from the West. Those days are gone. The lines are being drawn and PK is in a different camp now.

The fact that there isn't a complete rupture is similar to why there isn't a complete trading rupture with US/China. These things take time to unravel. But the unraveling has begun.

Lastly I agree weapon sales is not the only barometer to measure relationships between countries. However, given the limited nature of PK/US alignment, weapon sales is a good litmus test, and has been throughout our history with the US. Whenever we have seen a waning of relationships, it is the military relationship that sours. The rest just follows.

I’ve not noticed any US action against European or Turkish sales to Pakistan except where it involves American tech.

Italian weapon sales to Pakistan have not slowed down, they’ve only picked up, that’s the biggest European supplier of arms to Pakistan right now, and many of their systems being Co-developed with Germany and Britain require their approval too, neither have denied Pakistan from getting anything it has requested so far.

In fact I sincerely hope Pakistan starts buying and working more with Germany and UK. They are not opposed to defense deals with Pakistan at all, it’s just that Pakistan has recently preferred Italy for most of its defense needs in the region.

Eastern European countries (Serbia, Czechia, Ukraine etc) are still very keen on doing business, they make fewer things, but their artillery and APCs are being tested in Pakistan as we speak, they tend to take any sales they can get.

US exerted no pressure on Pakistan’s historical biggest arms supplier in Europe (France), the relations soured for other reasons, ones which you know, and I believe they will improve again, maybe after Macron is gone.

Turkey, due to erdogan, is having its own issues with US and Pakistan gets thrown into the mix there, the engines aren’t really a good example at all because they’re American engines. Not Turkish ones. most of the tech in Europe has no US parts, hence there isn’t much US can do to stop said sales except exert pressure, which I don’t see why it would want to do that, it would just piss the Europeans off by stopping them from getting sales.
Unless we try to mess with them like Erdogan is doing or go against their interests, they will only block American tech and not much else, which again, they have been doing for a few years now.

Pakistan itself has generally moved away from buying European tech (as compared to how it did up until the 90s and then for a while in the 2000s) as it has found better partners in China, back then China couldn’t make most of that stuff. And now there is also Turkey. Pakistan has also indigenized some of its defense needs, however I don’t think the Pakistani forces expected to lose America as a supplier so soon back in the 2000s and some of their future planning did get ruined by that.

I also don’t think the past is a good way to judge how things will happen this time due to how different the situation is globally, Pakistan has no need to mess with the US and vice versa, and with the US leaving Afghanistan anything Pakistan does in regards to Afghanistan won’t effect US anymore either.
nor will Pakistan try to get involved in any US/India action against China (and China fully understands that), so I don’t see how relations will get much worst than they already are.
US does not equal the west, Pakistan will still be buying whatever it can and wants from Europe and the few things it buys from South America (missiles). Other than that the forces have moved away from American tech over the last few years on their own, as I mentioned, so going forward we won’t notice much change, just more affirmation that American weapon sales to Pakistan aren’t happening anymore, but we already knew that.

I don’t see the PAK/US relationship normalizing either and I already said that, because US/India need each other too much and their relations will only improve. But it’s an opportunity for Pakistan to work with Russia and even more with China. So we trade one thing for another. But the bottom line is, I agree, Pakistanis need to stop holding their breath for any US weapon sales to Pakistan in the near future, unless there’s a major policy change or some internal dealings we don’t know about, both unlikely scenarios.

 

[Tameem]

if Chinese platforms are cheaper and on-par with US hardware then procuring US hardware make zero sense - does it? Go Chinese, go J10C, go Z10…

F16V may be more effective than J10C and since PAF already operating its older cousin, F16V brings more and rapid synchronization than any other platforms if opted by PAF but that's not all dear death by chocolate.

PAF fully considers and committed its future in indigenization, self reliance, operational independence, wider availability of weapons, larger thrust engine, radar, AA missile with MRO, R&D involvement, TOT and more appropriately towards Project AZM and here off the shelf F16V is miserably fails.

Going for J10C is not just technical but strategic, going out from US Political, diplomatic, economical (IMF, FATF, WB etc) umbrella is not yet fully thought out in Pakistani state. US despite depleting rapidly still holds more international clout than China. Pakistan yet fully acknowledge and understands US treachery and backstabbing over the years still want to hold her indifferent towards him at least not fully antagonize like US has its relations with Iran or NK and that is why Pakistan still want to remains opens a window of relationship to sought out CSF funds, assistance in any fallout in Afghanistan and economic, diplomatic help in UN, IMF, FATF, WB, indoPak War etc. etc. etc. J10C or its accessories will eventually comes in PAF one way or other but not with a bigbang but silently.

 

[crankthatskunk]

if Chinese platforms are cheaper and on-par with US hardware then procuring US hardware make zero sense - does it? Go Chinese, go J10C, go Z10…

It has to be. But if Americans throw away some F 16 Vs or upgrade kits for free. Do not say no.

 

[Reichmarshal]

We all need to under stand that the u.s has sub let its foreign policy to its regional partners.
In the middle east its framed with imput by isreal n similarly in South East Asia its framed with imput from India. the cornerstone of this frame work is that the regional partners interests are held Supreme over all else.
Until the u.s forces were in afg n as all the u.s comm lines passed through Pakistan, the u.s was in more than a few ways was " beholden" to Pakistan. But now with the u.s gone all bets are off.
But their is a spin to the above, when Pakistan forced the taliban to sit across the table with the u.s and the Afghan govt. and helped in the peaceful withdrawal of coalition forces, they for the first time in a very long time did it all "not for free".
I am guessing that one of the conditions for all of the above was that the u.s would allow Pakistan to buy military hardware from the csf owed to us by the u.s.

 

[Scorpiooo]

Pressure on USA? How? They have no obligation or reason to sell anything to Pakistan. Nor do they feel pressured by Pakistan buying weapons from China. PAF would buy F-16V in a heartbeat if it was possible over J-10C, that’s the reality of it. The F-16V is likely more capable than the J-10C anyways, and new American missiles would be much more useful for Pakistan because of their compatibility with older F-16s than Chinese missiles which it already has with J-10.

Sure People want to believe that Pakistan “won” by US’ exit of Afghanistan but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, Pakistan can’t pressure the US to do anything, the new development here, and the actual victory for Pakistan in my book, Is that the US can no longer pressure Pakistan to do anything either.

USA never had any incentive over Pakistan in regards to Afghanistan exit anyways, they weren’t going to get bases Wether they sold F-16 of F-35 because Pakistan has other consequences in mind.

Very well explained, Pakistan just try to get subsidized F16 or kits if Americans want to considering there role in post Afghan situation

 

[Mig hunter]

There are no Vipers coming and neither current one going to be upgraded.. Fingers crossed.. J 10 C is here.. The news will be broken officially soon..

 

[TheTallGuy]

There are no Vipers coming and neither current one going to be upgraded.. Fingers crossed.. J 10 C is here.. The news will be broken officially soon..

Insha Allah by end of 2021? 30+ ??

 

[ziaulislam]

Pressure on USA? How? They have no obligation or reason to sell anything to Pakistan. Nor do they feel pressured by Pakistan buying weapons from China. PAF would buy F-16V in a heartbeat if it was possible over J-10C, that’s the reality of it. The F-16V is likely more capable than the J-10C anyways, and new American missiles would be much more useful for Pakistan because of their compatibility with older F-16s than Chinese missiles which it already has with J-10.

Sure People want to believe that Pakistan “won” by US’ exit of Afghanistan but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, Pakistan can’t pressure the US to do anything, the new development here, and the actual victory for Pakistan in my book, Is that the US can no longer pressure Pakistan to do anything either.

USA never had any incentive over Pakistan in regards to Afghanistan exit anyways, they weren’t going to get bases Wether they sold F-16 of F-35 because Pakistan has other consequences in mind.

Pakistan doesnt need f16s
This isnt 1990s when thr only thing china could offer were mig19/f6
And you are wrong that we will buy it in a heart beat PAF walked away from b52 in 2012 when obama offered it

 

[The Terminator]

Second line means someone put money down beacuse creating infrastructure for 2nd line will cost LM money and resources let's see I don't see any country new beacuse Indonesia is getting Rafale they are very close to agreement Africa Asia I don't see EU all moving to F35 including Poland
There are requests under review from partner nations according to article sounds interesting

Well then they would bomb the hell out of a few potential clients and then shove down their throught the democracy along with some shiny M1 Abrams and F-16s too.

Or perhaps would make Saudis scare from Kuwaitis, as they did with Qataris and sell the US military industrial complex products to the both sides of the Arabs

 

[iLION12345_1]

Pakistan doesnt need f16s
This isnt 1990s when thr only thing china could offer were mig19/f6
And you are wrong that we will buy it in a heart beat PAF walked away from b52 in 2012 when obama offered it

PAF would, without a single doubt, instantly agree to buy Any F-16s it could. Because it makes a lot of logical sense to do that, they would be stupid to pass them up.
BUT, not if the conditions were so bad that they weren’t worth buying, PAF didn’t walk away from those Block 52+, it tried its hardest to get them, but the financing conditions weren’t to PAFs liking because US wanted Pakistan to pay in full. And add on top of that the stringent use conditions they were trying to put on those F-16s.

Right now PAF has more funds, if F-16s were on the cards without those stringent use conditions, PAF would surely take them, Wether it was 8 F-16s or 80. But J-10C would come anyways because PAF knows any F-16 sale would be small, but now there is no sale. So it doesn’t change much.

Sure PAF doesn’t inherently need F-16s anymore, but people have to realize PAF doesn’t have just so many open options that not getting more F-16s isn’t a drawback. It’s a major major drawback, because PAF has extremely limited realistic options. J-10C is currently the only single one.