Well, logically it does make sense. I have always wondered how come PAC is jumping straight into 5th gen design when they don't have any independent (I.e. without a partnership) experience of taking a project from conception to design, prototype, and production. But what kept throwing me off was the ACM's statement that future of PAC is making AESA radars and 5th gen jets in house. Also, I expected Block 3 to already feature low RCS given it will roll off the production line just after India receives first deliveries of Rafale. Pushing this to Azm means quite a number of years where the Rafale will reign supreme in South Asian skies. They better fix this with a 4.5+ gen purchase.
@Oscar @Bilal Khan 777 @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Mahmood uz Zaman
A blueprint to move onto a 5th gen existed at Chengdu for many years. Again, old info but the PAF 6 years ago had 3 options available to it to exploit for 5th gen. Only 1 was the J31.
Which means that there was clear availability of a designs from Chengdu and another vendor for a 5th gen route.
The “block-3” design is not being pushed to Azm. Rather, it is being made a stepping stone into AZM.
Moreover, there is no hold on them producing an upgraded block 2 in the interim while they sort out block-3.
My point is that if the PAF opts for the Su-35, then the long-term outcome will be Su-35 + Project Azm. Basically, whatever off-the-shelf fighter the PAF commits to moving forward will replace the F-16. So if the Russians proceed with a new Su-35 variant with an AESA radar, and in turn, the PAF would opt for it then they won't be stop at 2~3 squadrons, but take it to 4~5 (72~90) and replace the F-16s by the mid-2030s.
It might sound weird to maintain that many Su-35s, but it makes sense for the PAF as it'll scale infrastructure spending and ensure that a strong number of jets are operating when others are undergoing routine maintenance (a relatively frequent issue with the Flanker-series).
IMO ... it'll be one of Su-35, J-10C, FC-31 or TF-X.
We have elections tomorrow and then we are likely to hear from any new government how bad our economy has been left by the PmL(N).
One of the major sources of “frustration” at times on this forum while discussing defense purchases is that many tend to ignore budgets and allocation in those budgets for New purchases.
After all, only after we have paid salaries, pensions, maintenance of current assets(from bases, housing to the oldest mirage),loan payments and bills does the remaining amount be allocated to new purchases.
Those purchases will also be on loans since we clearly arent in any economic shape to pay amounts for a proper down payment. For that our credit rating in the market matters and currently that is in a bad category.
So, while our discussions on pursuing 4.5gen airplanes from any supplier not willing to consider us for a long term low interest loan isn’t pointless, it is quite unlikely that any purchase will happen until our economic situation improves considerably.
