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Pakistan offers special package for investors



ISLAMABAD, Nov 22 (APP): The government has been preparing a comprehensive and multi-pronged investment strategy for enhancing foreign and domestic investments in the country, Minister for Investment Waqar Ahmed Khan said.In a statement issued here, the Minister said that Pakistan offers investment friendly environment to the investors with tremendous potentials in various fields of the economy.



“Pakistan also offerers incentives to the foreign investors specially in oil and gas sectors”, he added.

The Minister called upon the investors to take optimum benefits of the opportunities and incentives for their own benefit and for socio-economic prosperity of the country.

He further said that Chinese investors were very keen to invest in Pakistan in services and telecom sectors adding that investors from Middle East were also interested in joint ventures.

“Government intends to develop special industrial zones for Chinese investors in Punjab province,” adding that special incentive package would be offered to investors, who intend to do business in special export zones of the country.

The Minister said that vast opportunities were available for the exploration of oil and gas in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan provinces, adding that investors from the country as well as abroad have similar opportunities to invest in these sectors.
 
German business delegation to visit in January

KARACHI, Nov 23 (APP): A German business delegation will undertake a visit in january next year.

This was stated by the Consul General of the Federal Republic of Germany in Karachi, Christian Brecht.

Talking to reporters, he said that the members of the delegation would be looking for business and investment opportunities here.

Christian Brecht described the people of Pakistan as well as those of the city of Karachi as very hospitable and further pointed out that he is here for the past three months or so and feels quite well in Karachi.

He said that Germany is on good terms with Pakistan and that bilateral relations of our two countries are based on mutual respect and friendship.

The Consul General further stated that a delegation of German journalists will also visit here.
 
Pakistan not keen on Saudi oil facility
Monday, November 24, 2008
By Tariq Butt

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is less enthusiastic about the Saudi oil facility because the drastic drop in oil prices in the international market has eased pressure on the country’s forex reserves. “The unbearable pressure on Pakistan, with its foreign reserves plummeting extremely low, has evaporated due to the huge fall in oil prices,” a senior official told The News on Sunday.

He recalled the time when Pakistan was paying around $1,800 million for its monthly oil import bill and one barrel was costing as much as $144. Now the country is paying just $800 million a month for the same, according to a source, who argued the price decline had taken off the pressure on Pakistan.

“Arranging this amount of money is not a problem for us because this has been our standard oil import bill before the unusual increase in the prices,” the official observed.

While working out the oil facility, he added, the real issue was the price that had to be locked in at the time of signing of agreement with Saudi Arabia for supply on deferred payments.

“The price locked in can’t be later subjected to downward or upward revision regardless of the cost of per barrel oil in the international market. Once it is fixed and inked by the two sides, it becomes final,” he explained.

He reasoned that if the Saudi oil facility was started today and the international oil price fell below the one agreed with Riyadh, Islamabad would be a loser. However, if the price escalated above the rate agreed with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan would benefit.

For quite some time, the official conceded, the main reason behind non-finalisation of the Saudi oil facility had been the constant decrease in international prices. Pakistan was wary of a possible negative impact of a further drop in fuel prices, he continued.

When the oil prices were constantly soaring, the official pointed out, international forecast was that they would touch $170 a barrel. He would not say how long Pakistan would wait to decide on availing the Saudi oil facility and whether Islamabad would go for it at all.

He claimed there was a clear willingness on the part of the Saudi government to grant the favour at a time when Pakistan was facing a financial crunch. Islamabad had regained some confidence as a result of fruitful talks with the International Monetary Fund on the standby package, he maintained.

The last time Pakistan benefited from a similar Saudi facility was in 1998 after Islamabad detonated nuclear devices and was slapped with crippling international sanctions. The new facility will be a huge proposition, $4.9 billion oil to be available in three to five years. It was first taken up by Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani in the company of Asif Ali Zardari (before the latter’s election as president) during his first official visit to Saudi Arabia.

Later, President Zardari discussed the facility with the top Saudi leadership during his maiden official trip to Riyadh. Officials agreed Pakistan had not shown much urgency for vigorously pursuing the Saudi oil facility even when the oil prices were skyrocketing.

Pakistan not keen on Saudi oil facility
 
24 Nov 2008

Pakistan is prepared to withdraw its first-strike nuclear threat and push to create an economic union with India in an effort to bring peace to south Asia, Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's president, said at the weekend in the warmest overture to his country's southern neighbour in decades.

His words are one of the strongest expressions yet of a desire to heal the rift that has existed since the partition of India in 1947 to create the Muslim majority republic. Both have developed nuclear weapons capabilities and fought conventional wars against one another.

The olive branch comes as Pakistan is close to agreeing a financial rescue package with the International Monetary Fund and as Kashmir, the disputed Muslim-majority Indian state, goes to the polls in state elections.

In a departure from Pakistan's official position, Mr Zardari offered to join its neighbour in a south Asian nuclear non-proliferation pact. "I can assure you that Pakistan will not be the first country to use [nuclear weapons against India]," he said in a video conference from Islamabad.

Mr Zardari told the Financial Times that India could help Pakistan overcome its serious economic difficulties by opening its borders to trade. Trade between the two is minimal. But Mr Zardari proposed that the two countries create an economic union, similar to that of the European Union.

"Let's open each other's borders to trade. If you can trade with China, why not trade with Pakistan?" he said.

The scars of partition, which led to one of the biggest forced migrations in history, run deep. Mr Zardari said Islamabad and New Delhi should help people move more freely across the border. Current visa restrictions should be replaced by passport-free travel. An e-card could be launched for regular travellers.

Analysts in Pakistan said it was too early to gauge whether Mr Zardari's conciliatory stance would mark a fresh chapter in Indo-Pakistani relations. "The big question is, can President Zardari take along Pakistan's ruling establishment, especially the military?" said Lieutenant General (retired) Talat Masood, a Pakistani commentator.

General Masood said Mr Zardari's ability to translate good intentions into reality depended on his government's ability to lead a significant improvement in Pakistan's troubled internal political and economic outlook.

New Delhi has welcomed the thaw in relations cautiously. One of the first tangible signs of improvement was the start of a small amount of trade across the Line of Control last month.

Mr Zardari's weekend comments follow an earlier breakthrough. Only last month, the Pakistani president described militants in Kashmir as "terrorists", a shift from a long-standing Pakistani policy of extending "moral and diplomatic support" to insurgents in the territory.

* A terrorist suspect linked to the 2006 attempt to blow up aircraft flying from London's Heathrow airport was killed on Saturday in a US attack in the remote Pakistani-Afghan border region.

According to senior Pakistani intelligence officials, Rashid Rauf died when a US drone launched missiles at a village in Pakistan's north Waziristan region.

"Rashid Rauf was among five people killed," one official told the Financial Times. An al-Qaeda commander of Arab origin known as Abu Asr Al-Misri was also killed.

On Sunday, the Pakistani foreign minister announced the government had disbanded the country's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to concentrate its focus on counter-terrorism.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
 

24 Nov 2008

WASHINGTON: The executive board of the International Monetary Fund will consider a $7.5 billion rescue package for Pakistan on Monday to help the country avoid an economic collapse.

The board is likely to approve the package the same day as there seems to be a general consensus in Washington that it’s in everybody’s interest to move rapidly to prevent an economic implosion in Pakistan.

If the rescue package is approved by Monday afternoon, the necessary documents allowing the transfer of money to Pakistan can also be signed the same day.

Pakistan is likely to get between $3.5 to 4 billion at the signing while the rest will be distributed in six equal installments.

After the approval the money will be transferred to the State Bank of Pakistan’s account in the US Federal Reserve in New York. The disbursement takes 48 to 72 hours, which means that Pakistan will have the money by Thursday.

This expected rapid disbursement enjoys the support of the US administration which wants to help Pakistan arrest the current economic deterioration as soon as possible.

But Pakistan experts in the US administration, as well as the World Bank and the IMF, also want Islamabad to make structural adjustments to set their economy in the right direction.

In a joint article for Washington’s Middle East Institute, former US ambassador to Islamabad Wendy Chamberlin and a former IMF economist Zubair Iqbal argued that ‘a rescue plan could have the advantage of presenting an opportunity to force countries like Pakistan to come to grips with entrenched structural distortions in its economy.’

The two authors also argued that countries like Pakistan could not count on the cash from wealthy oil producers in the Gulf for a bailout. Instead, they urged ‘a more organized approach’ to aiding ‘distressed economies.’

The authors proposed establishing a trust fund made up of multilateral and regional lending agencies, selected GCC countries, and the G-7 to pool resources and facilitate their effective use by vulnerable counties under the IMF/World bank guidance.

The two authors and other experts are also urging Pakistan to reduce expenditure and increase revenue if it wants to have a stable economy.
But they also acknowledge that it may be difficult for a political government to reduce expenditure as such steps are unpopular and may cause political repercussions. So they want Pakistan to increase revenue.

‘It is particularly difficult to reduce expenditure when the economy is slowing, the private sector is upset and the government has just increased interest rate,’ said one such expert. ‘So it is essential to increase revenue.’

And when such experts talk about the need to increase revenue, they emphasise the need to introduce agriculture income tax which, they argue, will also raise domestic savings.

They reject Pakistan’s claim that they have introduced agriculture income tax. The experts argue that the taxes introduced in the name of agriculture income tax six or seven years ago were simply the land revenues which are being collected since the British days.

‘When we talk about agriculture income tax, we mean agriculture income tax and not an old medicine with a new package,’ said an expert.

‘The general public is receptive to the idea that the relatively affluent should pay their share. Therefore, it is just the right time to extend the tax net.’
The expert also suggested introducing new taxes on capital gains and real estate appreciation.

The experts say that they have also been following Pakistan’s inappropriate exchange rate policy with concern. They say that Pakistan has been giving subsidies through tax reductions. They argue that it is time now to eliminate all such concessions especially those related to the general sales tax.

They point out that Pakistan has increased the interest rate but the interest rate spread remains very large and that is not beneficial for increasing savings. The government should encourage a reduction in the spread by raising the interest rates on savings to promote savings.

The experts argue that allowing the market to determine the exchange will not further depreciate the rupee. According to them, the recent depreciation was caused by a strong dollar which is going to depreciate in the next three to six months.

‘And when it happens, Pakistan should resist the temptation of letting rupee appreciate. They should let the market determine. They should not interfere,’ said an expert.
 

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan, the front-line state in the battle against Islamist terrorism, has won final approval for a $7.6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to help stave off a possible economic meltdown.

The IMF said a first installment of $3.1 billion will be transferred immediately to the nuclear-armed country, which is battling surging violence by Taliban and al-Qaida-linked militants and is increasingly seen in the West as key to stabilizing neighboring Afghanistan.

The IMF said the Pakistani economy had been badly hit by the worsening security situation, higher oil and food import prices and the global financial and credit crisis.

"By providing large financial support to Pakistan, the IMF is sending a strong signal to the donor community about the country's improved macroeconomic prospects," said IMF acting Chairman Takatoshi Kato in a statement released after the decision Monday in Washington, where the fund is based.

Pakistan's young government had been reluctant to go to the IMF but had little choice after close allies — the United States, China and Saudi Arabia — turned down pleas for significant bilateral aid.

In mid-November, the IMF announced it had reached a preliminary agreement on the deal.

Opposition and nationalist lawmakers have criticized the government for turning to the fund, saying the IMF will impose austerity measures that will hurt ordinary Pakistanis, two-thirds of whom live on $2 dollar a day or less.

"This IMF loan the government is getting is in fact poison, and the nation has been forced to drink it," said Javed Hashmi, a senior figure in the main opposition party, told reporters.

The loan removes the most pressing risk facing the country — that it would not be able to repay dollar-denominated government bonds due to mature early next year, said Muzammil Aslam, an economist at the Pakistani securities firm KASB.

Aslam and other economists said Pakistan's government had already made some tough decisions, such as hiking the prices of fuel and electricity.

Many Pakistani economists and commentators argued that the country had no choice but to turn to the IMF. They say it is now critical that the money is well spent — always a worry in corruption-prone and chaotic Pakistan.

The IMF said in return for the money Pakistan had agreed to phase out energy subsidies, boost taxes and implement other money saving reforms. It said the World Bank would put in place a "comprehensive" social security net to shield the poor from any cuts.

In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this month, President Asif Ali Zardari said the loan was "a difficult pill, but one has to take medicine to get better,"

The loan will immediately boost Pakistan's foreign currency reserves, which have seen a rapid decline that has seen the value of the rupee fall some 20 percent since March, and enable it to pay off foreign-denominated debt due to mature soon.

The currency has clawed back some ground in recent weeks as it became clear that the IMF would step in.

The country is also wracked by power cuts, the costs of essential goods are soaring and the stock market has plummeted amid waning investor confidence.

Pakistan is one of a number of countries including Hungary and Ukraine that has sought IMF assistance in the wake of the global credit crunch. However, its strategic importance in the U.S.-led war against terrorism makes its financial and political stability particularly critical for the international community.

U.S. officials say that militants sheltering in its lawless northwest are behind much of the violence in Afghanistan, where a resurgent Taliban threaten the success of the U.S.-led mission there seven years after the invasion.

They also say that al-Qaida's leadership — including Osama bin Laden — has managed to regroup in the region, and is possibly plotting attacks on the West.

Pakistan's army is batting militants in several parts of the northwest, but some Western analysts and officials suspect elements within the security forces of sympathizing with the extremists.
 
November 25, 2008

KARACHI: Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Supplies Corporation (PASSCO) has procured less than one per cent paddy out of its target of one million tonnes, and this has grieved the growers who remain disappointed from the government’s intervention. “Government intervention is not working,” said Sindh Abadgar Board President Abdul Majeed Nizamani.

According to PASSCO details, more than 38,000 tonnes of paddy were procured from Punjab till Sunday evening while 3,800 tonnes were procured from Sindh. PASSCO has entered into agreement with 25 rice mills in Sindh and five in Balochistan out of 900 mills in the two provinces. PASSCO officials say that the total number of rice mills procurement centres in Sindh would reach 80 by Saturday. “I am in Larkana and in the process of having agreements with more mills,” PASSCO Director General Maj Gen Anwar Saeed Khan, told The News on Monday.

Contrary to Sindh, Punjab growers are getting better rates in open market and more mills have started their procurement. Above 90 against a target of 100 mills have already started their procurement in Punjab as compared to 25 in Sindh and five in Balochistan.

Besides, “Punjab growers are getting price in the open market,” Basmati Growers Association Chairman Hamid Malhi, told The News. Anwar Saeed Khan said that there would be around 200 procurement centres in the country. Out of which, 100 centres would be opened in Punjab while rest in Sindh and Balochistan, later with no more than 10-15 procurement centres.

Replying to the cries of growers he said procurement centres would increase to 80 in Sindh by Saturday, and “that would help the problem, “he said, “We are monitoring the situation on daily basis and our staff is available in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan.

However, the growers are unsatisfied. “The situation was better before PASSCO’s intervention,” said Abdul Majeed. He said PASSCO started its procurement from 17th November. Paddy was sold for Rs630 to Rs680 per 40-kg on November 16 but the next day it declined to Rs570 per 40kg in open market.

The official procurement rate for IRRI-6 paddy has been fixed at Rs700 per 40kg. He said procurement at 25 centres out of 900 mills of Sindh and Balochistan were not going to help as the smaller percentage of mills would not be able to buy the entire paddy. “PASSCO is not interested in Sindh’s variety. The growers are at the will of millers,” he said.

He said that harvesting in Sindh started two month ago and government’s intervention came at the time when most of the paddy was already sold, the intervention was not working. “We are disappointed from PASSCO,” he said.

Nizamani said even the middleclass men were buying Sindh’s IRRI-6 paddy at Rs565 from the field. The government could do better as there was no ban over export of such variety and there was demand. Likewise growers of Sindh, Punjab’s farmers also remain unsatisfied. Farmers Association of Pakistan (FAP) Okara Director Brig Rasheed Baig told The News that the situation in Punjab was not changed.

“We are not satisfied,” he said PASSCO started procurement at big centres only. Accessibility was far away from farmers, he said, and PASSCO’s staffs were very difficult to handle as they rejected rice at mills but their agents bargained at lower prices outside mills. “We are facing crisis (of the price). I can not sell my rice in the market and have kept the paddy with me,” he said.
 
25 Nov 2008

ISLAMABAD: The most difficult condition attached by the IMF for its $7.6 billion loan for Pakistan will be achieving net zero borrowing from the central bank for the budgetary purposes in the current fiscal year, which may prove potential threat to jeopardize second or third tranche from the Fund, a senior official said on Monday.

All prior action taken by the PPP led government by increasing 2 per cent discount rates, cutting down expenditures and jacking up envisaged tax collection target helped Islamabad for moving towards the IMF loan under the Standby Arrangement (SBA).

Under the IMF’s prescription for the ailing economy of Pakistan, the government has accepted the Fund’s condition to increase discount rate by 2 per cent and reducing expenditures mainly on development side, which would result into slowing down the economic activities and massive unemployment would further aggravate miseries of more people living below the poverty line on short term basis till end June 2010.

The IMF viewed that the depreciation of rupee against dollar as well as higher inflationary pressure in the current fiscal would enable the tax authorities to increase revenues by Rs 110 billion from earlier envisaged target of Rs 1,250 billion to Rs 1,360 billion for 2008-09.

“The most difficult condition for the incumbent regime to comply will be achieving net zero borrowing from the central bank for budgetary purposes in the current fiscal year,” said the official sources who knew about attached conditionalities for obtaining the Fund’s loan here on Monday night.

The government has accepted that the net borrowing from the central bank for budgetary purposes will be brought to zero. It is simply impossible to achieve where there is Balance of Payment (BoP) deficit, said the official.

Pakistan will get $4.5 billion during the current fiscal year from the IMF, which will simply increase foreign currency reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and this money will not increase money supply.

The SBP has envisaged target to increase money supply growth by 15 per cent as against a nominal GDP growth of over 27 per cent. By definition, this level of growth in money supply is highly deflationary in its nature and this level of money supply will not be able to finance current level of economic activities.

The Net Foreign Assets (NFA) will continue to be negative and in order to achieve money supply target of the year, the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) has to increase in the range of Rs900 to Rs940 billion. During the last fiscal year, the NDA increased by Rs935 billion because Net Foreign Assets was negative to the extent of Rs300 billion. Pakistan had faced BoP deficit in the last financial year 2007-08.

After taking into account the private sector credit, which is not expected to increase more than Rs400 billion this year, there will be over Rs500 billion available for the government sector. With Rs500 billion, the central bank has to earmarked credit for public sector enterprises.

It is estimated that Rs200 to Rs300 billion net borrowing has to come from Treasury Bills (TBs) auctions in which the SBP failed to finance maturing TBs and as such the government and the central bank, the pressure will be increased massively.

There is no difference in money market this year and the SBP will be facing tremendous difficulties in raising cash from the market for the maturity of TBs this year to generate Rs200 to Rs300 billion from auctions. “It is the most difficult conditions to meet, which possessed potential to jeopardize second or third tranche from the IMF,” said the sources.
 

25 Nov 2008

ISLAMABAD: Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) of the country has declined by 6.20 per cent during the first quarter of the financial year as against the same period of the last year.

The LSM production during September 2008 also witnessed a decrease of 6.76 per cent against the same month of last financial year, according to Federal Bureau of Statistics. The leading business community owes the decline in large-scale manufacturing to a variety of factors including power shortage and higher energy and capital costs during the current financial year. The falling industrial production has also been adversely affecting the GDP rate as well as for export sector, especially textile sector.

According to FBR figures, the petroleum sector posted 5.41 per cent negative growth during first quarter of current fiscal. The production of jet fuel oil declined by 12.81 per cent, motor spirits 9.89 per cent, diesel oil 28.80 per cent, furnace oil 6.66 per cent, lubricating oil 4.19 per cent, jute batching oil 14.59 per cent, LPG 19.19 per cent and other petroleum products 18.20 per cent. In petroleum group, only kerosene oil and high-speed diesel posted 7.36 per cent and 3.04 per cent growth, respectively during the period under review.

In Food group, the production of vegetable ghee was down by 12.49 per cent, cooking oil 8.55 per cent, wheat and grain milling 10.40 per cent, beverages 17.82 per cent, whereas the production of tea blended was up 10.82 per cent and starch and its products 18.53 per cent. The production of buses, jeeps & cars, and motorcycles decreased by 41.25 per cent, 47.16 per cent and 8.49 per cent respectively. The production of TV sets decreased by 10.83 per cent, bicycles 14.49 per cent, refrigerators 1.07 per cent and deep freezers 29.22 per cent. The production of cement and cotton cloth remained flat.
 
25 Nov 2008

JAMSHORO: State Bank Governor, Dr. Shamshad Akhtar has said that the positive indicators of county coming out of the current economic crisis have started to appear.

This, she said, while addressing the students of Sindh University here on Tuesday.

“We had to face shortages of water, power and energy as no attention was paid to the structural imbalance,” she said. The State Bank Governor said, “The gap between saving and investment has also widened for not focusing on country’s resources.

SBP Governor said the commodity price shock adversely affected our economy and added that the revenue share in total GDP having remained frozen also added to our economic miseries.
 

25 Nov 2008

KARACHI: Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has notified the Non-Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs) and Notified Entities (NEs) Regulations-2008, which is aimed at industry facilitation, risk management and safeguarding the interest of the shareholders.

According to these new regulations, the requirement for listing at the stock exchange for entities engaged in deposit taking has been extended up to June 30, 2009 and the time schedule to comply with the minimum equity requirement has been raised by one year.

The time period for aligning portfolios by Asset Management Companies has been extended until June 30, 2009; the annual fees on mutual funds has been reduced depending on the category of a fund and procedure for cancellation of registration, and revocation of the open end scheme or closed end scheme by the AMC has been improved.

The application of provisioning criteria on non-performing assets has been extended for a period of two years, per-party and per-sector exposure limits have been specified for different types of schemes and CIS has been barred from investing in securities of its Asset Management Company. Under the regulations, board of directors of NBFCs will be required to approve the opening of accounts with banks and brokers. It is to be noted that the NBFC Regulations issued in 2007 stand repealed and replaced by these Regulations.
 


25 Nov 2008

KARACHI: The expected IMF loan would not be a miracle for economy, but would certainly tighten ‘some loose ends’ at the cost of slowdown of economic growth, analysts and market sources said.

Instead of feeling confident, traders and industrialists found the IMF lending as anti-growth and recessionary.

Pakistan negotiated $7.6 billion loan with the IMF and expects to get it in the next couple of weeks.

However, analysts said the IMF loan will strengthen the exchange rate, increase foreign exchange reserves and improve the country’s ability to pay import bills.

Members of various chambers of commerce and industries have been meeting with government officials and State Bank leadership to explain their problems, which would only aggravate in the wake of high interest rates and tight monetary policy.

‘The working capital is no more working as cost of borrowing is too high,’ said Aamir Aziz, an exporter and manufacturer of readymade garments.

He said 20 to 22 per cent interest could easily kill the entire business sector of this country, especially the exporters would not survive.

‘High interest rate of 20 per cent with an inflation of 25 per cent means no business is feasible in the present cut-throat competition unless margin of profit is more than 50 per cent,’ said Mr Aziz.

The government claims that the IMF loan would strengthen economic fundamentals and prove helpful for the economy.

‘If $3-4 billion is immediately received from the IMF, Pakistan’s dwindling forex reserves are likely to get a major boost and can reach close to $9 billion (11 weeks of import cover) from the current $6.7 billion (8.5 weeks import cover) by the first week of December 2008,’ said Farhan Rizvi, an economist at the JS Research.

‘Rupee will float in the range of 75-80 versus the dollar in the short-term. We have already seen rupee strengthening by 1.5 per cent against the dollar last week, especially after the announcement of request for funding from the IMF by the government,’ said Mr Rizvi, adding that the rupee could strengthen further once the first tranche of $3-4 billion is received.

However, other researchers and analysts were of the view that the IMF loan would have a limited impact on overall economy.

‘The cut in development expenditure and tight monetary policy under high interest rate will have a negative impact on economic growth,’ said Shabir Adil, an economist teaching at a private college. He said slow economic growth would simply add to the already existing unemployment, reduce savings rate and slash public consumption, which runs the economic wheel.

The key-watchers of the economy expressed concern over slowing down of economy and believed that the IMF could be avoided.

‘Lack of planning and strategy from the government side is responsible for this IMF ‘anti-growth package,’ said Aamir amid fears that the textile industry would be the worst hit, and hundreds of thousands of people may lose jobs.

He said that with the slowdown of economy, growth would decline and once again trade and current account deficit problem would emerge to grip the economy, forcing the government to keep asking for more IMF help.

‘After witnessing a balance of payments deficit of $5.7 billion in fiscal year 2008, pressures have continued with deficit of $5.1 billion in July-Oct FY09, mainly driven by widening current account deficit and lack of foreign inflows,’ said Mr Rizvi.
 

25 Nov 2008

ABU DHABI (November 25 2008): Heads and chief executives of two major UAE companies including the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development and Etisalat separately called on President Asif Ali Zardari here on Monday and expressed their keenness to further invest in different fields in Pakistan.

The President appreciated their interest and assured the government's every possible support to them in setting up and expanding their businesses in Pakistan. The President briefed them about the vast business opportunities in Pakistan in diverse fields particularly infrastructure, energy and telecom as well as the government's investment-friendly policies.

Director General Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, Muhammad Saif Al-Suwaidi after his meeting with President Zardari told Pakistani media that the Fund will soon send its high level delegation to Pakistan to explore new avenues for investment in Pakistan. He said the Fund has already financed various projects in Pakistan and was keen to further invest in various development projects.

Chairman Etisalat Muhammad Hassan Omran told media person that their company already has its presence in Pakistan with huge investment in telecom sector including a 26 percent stake in PTCL and plans to invest more in different fields of economy.

He termed his meeting with President Zardari as very productive and fruitful and said the President was appreciative of the company's strong presence in Pakistan and assured full co-operation of the government to Etisalat in its plans to expand their business in the country.
 

ISLAMABAD (November 25 2008): Pakistan is seeking 50,000 tons of crude oil per day on deferred payment from Iran to overcome oil shortage and secure the rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves, sources in the Petroleum Ministry told Business Recorder on Monday. This is in addition to a similar request by Pakistan to Iran with respect to furnace oil.

Pakistan is currently importing 16,000 tons per day crude oil from Iran to meet its requirement. Sources said that Pakistan has written a letter to Iran seeking crude oil on deferred payment and if the Iranians agree then the two sides are likely to hold further discussions on the modalities of the deal.

Sources said the government has also held discussions with oil refineries here in Pakistan and they are also ready to take Iranian crude. Sources said that Iran has formally agreed to provide both furnace and crude oil on deferred payment. Iran can provide oil on deferred payment to Pakistan for three months without parliamentary approval; however any period greater than three months would require parliamentary approval.

Oil refineries in Pakistan are currently operating at 60 percent of their total capacity due to shortage of crude oil. Sources said that due to poor rating of the country, foreign banks had refused to open the Letter of Credit for crude oil imports to Pakistan; however after International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement to provide assistance to Pakistan, banks have opened LC for crude oil import.

These banks are also charging 3 to 4 percent service charges for opening LC for crude oil import. Pakistan imports crude oil from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar on credit facility of 30 days whereas Kuwait had given extension in credit oil facility from 30 to 60 days.

The extension in credit oil facility from Kuwait would end in December. Pakistan had sought an extension in credit oil facility from these countries through diplomatic channels but had failed to get an extension. Sources said that due to reluctance of opening of LC for crude oil import by foreign banks, the import of crude has been delayed.

Sources maintained that the country had crude stocks sufficient enough for 10 days and Pakistan had received some shipment of crude. They said that Pakistan received one ship of crude oil on Friday and the second ship will arrive on Saturday at Karachi port. Pakistan would be getting another ship of crude oil on November 27 that would help boost oil reserves in the country.
 

EDITORIAL (November 25 2008): The inflow of first tranche from the International Monetary Fund to Pakistan is due this week. Hopefully, the floor in place at the Karachi Stock Exchange will be removed by December 1st, 2008, after an off-market special session to clear the weak and over-leverage investors has been held within this week.

Putting the floor in KSE trading was obviously a wrong step. Initially, it was thought to be prudent for it was aimed at giving more time to brokers to collect overdue margins from their clients. However, once the deal was done; the floor removal became hostage to country's depleting forex reserves and weakening rupee.

Several steps have been taken in the ensuing period. Existing loans to brokers have been converted into one-year term loans. Moratorium has been declared on equity mutual funds. Rs 20 billion 'Opportunity-Fund' to repurchase nine government-owned stocks is reportedly in place. And, a Rs 30 billion 'put-option' mechanism has been devised to entice the foreign investors to maintain and even replenish their investment in KSE.

However, is the game plan to save the share values of public sector companies from a downward spiral and ensure a soft lending workable? We have some profound doubts! The basic stress on the market being on account of brokers defaulting in large numbers, is due to lack of liquidity. Providing a Rs 20 billion - Opportunity Fund - to buy after a fall of 15 percent in share index is just not enough.

The plan fails to address the systemic issue. Further, the so-called filters ostensibly aimed at not bailing out the 'big-boys' and letting them stem in their own juice are not workable. They are far more smarter than the regulators. They also have the support of small brokers to cover their tracks. Let us not forget that the "big-boys", have over the years, provided the insurance cover to the rank and file of KSE members in times of difficulties.

Just like any other market, the herd mentality for a sell-off is likely to make the market fall overshoot, ie, dip below the realistic level. In order to overcome a contagion effect, not just Rs 20 billion but at least Rs 75 billion of liquidity needs to be made available through the banking system.

Also, unhindered credit flow has to be ensured, otherwise settlement of trades even on day one of the post-floor bourse cannot happen. The State Bank needs to get the credit flow going and banks need to be effectively persuaded not to lay down harsher and stricter conditions for their loans.

It also must be recognised that foreign investors are similarly facing liquidity constraints and are likely to redeem their investments in Pakistan. Due to internal compliance prohibition, reputable foreign funds cannot sell (with the floor in place) outside the market in the absence of price discovery. At present, these funds' portfolio investment is estimated at nearly $1.7 billion.

After a 50 percent fall in the KSE index with the portfolio size reduced, one cannot rule out a $200-300 million sell-off despite the Put Option offer. This sell-off will put pressure on share values and could drag the price to below realistic levels. The moot question remains about investors, having cash but not the nerve or the confidence, to step forward and buy. This can only happen if the banks stand behind them to take the risk.
 
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