Economy to withstand external shocks: Shamshad
Says Pakistani financial markets remain insulated from global turmoil
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
KARACHI: State Bank of Pakistan Governor Dr Shamshad Akhtar has said that the countrys economic prospects would remain strong despite the recent turmoil in the international financial markets and upsurge in global oil prices.
Briefing businessmen and industrialists here on Monday, she said that resilience of the countrys economy was due to underlying financial health and strong macroeconomic fundamentals that have helped Pakistan remain untouched by external shocks like US subprime mortgage market crisis, depreciation of the dollar and rising international oil prices.
Pakistans financial markets remained insulated from the global financial market turmoil as it did not have exposure to mortgage or other asset-backed securities, the Governor said. However, she said the external sector could see some spill over impact of the U.S. slowdown if it turned out to be more severe.
She pointed out that some emerging trends could affect the economic outcome of current fiscal year. On production side, growth is likely to be impacted by setback to two major crops i.e. cotton and rice as they were hit by pest attacks and other problems. Part of the agriculture crop shortfalls could be offset by the higher than expected other crops, for instance sugarcane harvest is likely to touch new high level of 62.3 million tons - up by 13.5 percent relative to last year.
SBP Governor said the July-October, 2007 data for industrial production reflects mixed picture, as production growth in construction-related industries appeared reasonable including cement, wood, paints and varnish units, followed by fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, petroleum refining and few metal and engineering goods.
She maintained that in these sectors, Pakistan could reduce rate of import dependency (such as petroleum refining where production capacity is 13.2 million tons relative to consumption which is 18 million tons) through capacity augmentation and exploiting export markets, she said, adding in contrast to some of these sectors, first-quarter results of some industries reflect slower growth.
Deceleration is evident in cotton yarn and cloth, footwear, automobile, edible oil and vegetable ghee. While demand remained strong, slowdown in manufacturing sector emerged due to demand for import substitutes (as Government relaxed imports of automobile), slowdown in export demand and increase in raw material prices such as palm oil, which recorded 73 percent growth in value.
Both local manufactures and the Government need to take measures to improve competitiveness of domestic goods, the Governor said and added that ensuring quality through innovation, skill development, upgrading technology, reducing costs through economy of scale, diversifying product-line according to market demand, and achieving self sufficiency in raw materials etc. are some of the areas where entrepreneurs need to concentrate.
Adversities in production sectors is, however, likely to be offset by the continued buoyant performance of services sector, which accounts for over half of value added of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), she said.
Dr Akhtar said the State Banks policy measures have brought down core inflation. Higher non-core inflation penetrates economy in different ways (i) it impacts consumer purchasing powers since cutting down essentials is difficult and there is low price elasticity of food and energy, (ii) even if the Government delays to pass on the impact of higher energy prices to consumers, businesses often pass on higher costs of energy to their consumers immediately, and (iii) with inflationary trends persisting consumers and producers higher inflationary expectations set in trends too. Higher inflation expectations have become self-fulfilling, as they have impacted wage setting and pricing decisions now.
SBP Governor said the inflation currently is a global phenomenon and driven largely by commodity price trends both in energy and food. She said the inflationary pressures could rise, since fiscal imperatives now demand for Government to pass through the impact of the recent oil prices that reached close to $100 per barrel in the international markets.
But for the tight monetary policy that curbed demand pressures and kept core and headline inflation in check, inflationary trends would have been more significant in Pakistan, she added.
Economy to withstand external shocks: Shamshad