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Govt borrows Rs960 billion

Sunday, November 25, 2007

KARACHI: In order to meet its budgetary requirements the government borrowed Rs960.478 billion from the banking sector by the end of September-2007. At June-end, the borrowing stood at Rs898.339 billion.

According to latest figures released by the central bank, government’s net borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined to Rs311.389 billion at the end of September 2007, which was recorded at Rs325.360 billion in June-2007 and Rs445.247 billion in September 2006.

Out of total loans acquired by the government from the banking sector, the central bank credited to government accounts Rs415.598 billion through investment in government securities and Rs11.533 billion as cash loans. In others category it got loans of Rs7.971 billion.

Credit from scheduled banks to government sector swelled to Rs649.085 billion, which was Rs572.959 billion in June-2007 and Rs402.341 billion in September 2006.

In September the banking sector credit to non government sector narrowed to Rs2,600.087 billon, which was Rs2,619.351 billion in June-2007.

The SBP credit to non government sector stood Rs16.375 billion which was recorded at Rs16.187 billion in June 2007, whereas, the scheduled banks NGS declined to Rs2,583.712 billion from Rs2,603.164 billion in June2007.

The breakup revealed that scheduled banks credited Rs163.092 billion to Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) as against this the scheduled banks had disbursed Rs164.140 billion to PSEs in June 2007, similarly scheduled banks credit to NBFCs declined to Rs127.8 billion from Rs144.224 billion.

The credit to private sector including investment in securities and share of private sector besides of loans to private sector recorded at Rs2,292.820 billion against Rs2,294.8billion in June 2007.

The total credit disbursed by banking including government sector, trust funds and non profit sectors (NPOs) ballooned to Rs3,560.561 billion in September2007 as compared to Rs3,517.670 billion in June-2007.

Govt borrows Rs960 billion
 
SCRAs balance surges to $124.533 million

KARACHI (November 24 2007): After witnessing a massive outflow due to imposition of emergency, the inflow of portfolio investment in the country's equity market has once again started and the special convertible rupee accounts(SCRAs) balances reached 124.533 million dollars on Thursday.

The SCRAs balances increased by 25 million dollars during the last couple of days and according to the State Bank of Pakistan data, the recent inflow of 126,686 dollars was witnessed only from the investors from the US.

A massive inflow of the foreign investment was seen during the current fiscal year as over 2.094 billion dollars has come in the country's equity market from July 1, 2007, while an outflow of 1.970 billion dollars was also witnessed during this period.

The US investors topped the list as the net inflow of portfolio investment from the US reached 302.200 million dollars on November 22, but the UK investors withdrew 133.133 million dollars from the country's equity market.

A massive net outflow of 171.803 million dollars was witnessed during the current month, as a total of 290.396 million dollars came to the country, while 462.200 million dollars were withdrawn by the foreign investors in this period.

The foreign investors opted to withdraw their investment from the country's equity market after imposition of emergency, but the recent inflow was a very positive sign, said Chief Operating Officer (COO) of JOV & Co Ahmed Nabeel He said that the foreign investors took cautious stance due to political uncertainty, but after some positive developments on this front, the inflow of foreign investment had started.

He said that more foreign investment was expected in future and a massive inflow of portfolio investment in the country's equity market was expected after the elections. The recent inflow of 21 million dollars was seen from the US and UK investors, mainly in E&P, OMC and fertiliser sectors, that are still attractive for the foreign investors, he said.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
Crisis in cotton economy deepening

KARACHI, Nov 24: As crisis in cotton economy is deepening, it is causing anxiety and uncertainty in textile industry which is looking for a way out by ensuring supply of quality cotton through higher import of lint cotton from India and other countries.The new cotton season began on negative reports of severe damage to the crop caused by mealy bug, and curl leaf virus attack in the upper Sindh and lower Punjab’s cotton growing belts.

Though initially the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) kept denying any such damage, the minister ultimately admitted the fact, and revised the crop estimate from 14.5 million bales to 12.8 million bales.

As a result of short supply of phutti from cotton fields to ginners owing to pest attack, coupled with delay in the opening of cotton bales of standing crop due to hot weather, raw cotton prices in the domestic market moved up to Rs3,300 per 40kg which crippled the spinning industry.

In the meantime, the spinning industry, which historically accumulates cotton stocks during first three months of the crop season (Oct to Dec) became desperate and looked for outside sources to meet their year-long raw material demand.

As crop situation worsened and private sector estimates put the crop size even lesser than what was officially projected, panic griped the spinning industry which entered large-scale import contacts of lint cotton.

It is being privately estimated that crop would not be more than 11 million bales and this would mean that huge quantity of around 4 to 5 million bales would have to be imported to meet the shortfall.

However, some analysts believe that many spindles may close down owing to high cost of production, coupled with recent Ogra decision to increase gas prices by 6.5 per cent and electricity prices by 23 per cent from early next year.

As a result of highly perplexed situation, the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA) has asked its 1,200 member-ginneries to close down for two days as a mark of protest against poor quality phutti being supplied to them by growers.

The PCGA alleged that growers were not only adding moisture, but are also putting wood and other material in phutti which was causing a lot of problems and the ginneries had been suffering financial losses.

They also complained that no government department was taking notice of such practices and it seems that things are deliberately allowed to happen.

The ginners’ body also took serious notice of large quantity of raw cotton import from India and said spinners have already entered into import contracts to the tune of 2 million bales.

Consequently, the PCGA called an emergent general body meeting on Sunday in Multan to sort out the issue after taking all members into confidence.

However, some private estimates believe that so far around 0.8 million bales have been booked for import from India and about 1.2 to 1.3 million bales have been contracted for import from US, Central Asia and other traditional sources.

It is encouraging to witness that raw cotton prices in the domestic market began to come down and on Saturday these were quoted lower by Rs150 per 40 kg at Rs3,150, and Punjab and Sindh varieties at Rs3,050 to Rs3,100.

The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) spot rates were also quoted lower at Rs3,175 to Rs3,075 per 40 kg.

The phutti (seed cotton) prices also came down by Rs100 to Rs150 per 40 kg and are being quoted at Rs1,450 to Rs1,500 against previous rates of Rs1,600. The official phutti price was fixed at Rs1,075.

Meanwhile, textile mills have, so far, imported the highest-ever 190,055 metric tons or 1.24 million cotton bales worth $286.931 million (Rs17.371 billion) till Oct 31 from US, India and other sources due to crop shortage in the country, adds APP.

According to the provisional trade data of Federal Bureau of Statistics for July-October 2007, this is a phenomenal increase of 154.62 per cent in raw cotton import in just four months.

Mills had imported 81,839 MT or 491,034 bales of raw cotton worth $ 112.688 million during the same period last year (July-October 2006).

Chairman, Cotton Brokers Forum, Naseem Usman said that the news about the huge import of cotton has slowed down cotton trade at Karachi Cotton Association. The spot rate of Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) declined by Rs100 to Rs3,125 per bales of 37.3324 kg on Saturday due to lack of interest, he added.

Usman said that rates of a good quality cotton has also fallen in Punjab by Rs150 per bale due to declining demand.

Crisis in cotton economy deepening -DAWN - Business; November 25, 2007
 
The troubling BIT

THAT the curtain seems to have fallen on Pakistan’s long-drawn talks with the United States for a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) — a step towards the Free Trade Agreement — should not surprise anyone. The US and the European Union have long been pushing bilateralism across the globe. The emphasis on bilateralism increased after the breakdown of multilateral trade talks under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Cancun in 2003, mainly because of the refusal of the industrialised economies to allow greater market access to agricultural products and services from the developing nations. Bilateral agreements are often referred to as ‘WTO plus’ because they move things beyond WTO standards. Both the US and the EU use bilateralism as an extension of their foreign policy tools to advance their political agenda and protect the interests of big business.

Washington agreed to initiate negotiations with Islamabad, its frontline partner in the fight against terrorism, on BIT leading to FTA in June 2003. At that time, the US trade representative had stated that a “BIT based on the high standards contained in our model text can play an important role in strengthening Pakistan’s economy, so as to create new opportunities for exporters and investors in both economies and assist in meeting the economic conditions to counter terrorism”. It was against this backdrop that the report about the snags hitting the BIT talks came as a rude shock to some. In view of the US’s changing relations with Gen Pervez Musharraf in recent weeks and his rejection of the Bush administration’s demand to lift emergency rule for transparent elections, it is but natural to see the suspension of BIT talks as part of the American effort to push for democracy and civil liberties in Pakistan. That may be so, partly. But it is not the whole story.

The Americans had been dragging their feet on BIT negotiations right from the start and trying to force Islamabad to agree to what officials describe as ‘harsh conditions’. These mainly relate to America’s insistence on greater intellectual property protection and an agreement on dispute settlement procedures of its choice. By demanding a more stringent IPRs environment and the selection of the International Centre for Settlement of Disputes for arbitration, the US is unduly asking for huge legal protection for its investors and transnational corporations. Thus, the failure to finalise BIT shouldn’t distress anyone, especially those in government, because it is far less likely to hamper the flow of foreign investment or affect the economy than the current political turmoil. Instead, the opportunity must be seized to step up efforts for the successful conclusion of multilateral talks under the WTO for a just and fair

DAWN - Editorial; November 25, 2007
 
Pakistani gem, jewellery makers asked to adopt world standards

* ‘Unawareness of the latest technology, lack of training and international quality standards are the real impediment in growth of gems and jewellery sector in Pakistan’

KARACHI: International gems and jewellery experts have emphasized the need of proper training mechanism for Pakistani jewellery artisans and manufacturers to compete in international markets, where latest fashion designs are in demand.

These views were expressed by the gems and jewellery experts Mr. Sylvo Schroeder and Ms. Bhavana while addressing a seminar on latest jewellery designing and gemology, organized by Pakistan Gems and Jewellery Development Company here on Saturday.

Mr. Schroeder said that US $1.5 billion gems and jewellery export target by 2017 by Pakistan is achievable provided entrepreneurship are encouraged, provided supportive infrastructure, latest mining, gems cutting & jewellery manufacturing techniques are introduce at the grassroots level and provide the gems and jewellery sector workers with proper training according to the international standards.

Unawareness: He said that unawareness of the latest technology, lack of training and international quality standards are the real impediment in growth of gems and jewellery sector in Pakistan.

Currently Gems and Jewellery sector in Pakistan is highly fragmented, he said adding, now the strategy should be to make Pakistan preferred source of high value-added gems and jewelry products, having the mission to enhance the skill and financial level of every individual associated with the Pakistan gems and jewelry industry to utilize their maximum potential. Ms. Bhavana said that India, by implementing a long-term strategy has gained a sizeable market of gems and diamonds, which is a model for Pakistani gems and jewellery sector.

She appreciated the idea of creating Pakistan Gems and Jewellery Development Company for development of this sector with a mine to market approach to create a value chain and enhance the workers skills and income that would broaden employment and help alleviating the poverty.

She said that having visited different cities of Pakistan and meeting the gems and jewellery sector stakeholders she believed that Pakistani gems and jewellery sector is far more focused and organized. If the sector is provided with the latest technology and proper training, Pakistan can become a hub of gems and jewellery trading.

Speaking on the occasion Chairman of Pakistan Gems and Jewellery Development company Mateeullah said that Pakistan has the world’s best and most precious gems stones but it is only lacking in training.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
LSM growth slumps in July-September 2007-08

* Motorcycle production rises by 30 percent

ISLAMABAD: Out of the 37 items manufactured by the large scale-manufacturing (LSM) sector, the production of 14 items has showed negative growth during the first quarter of the current fiscal year (July-Sep 2007).

Data released by the Ministry of Industries, Production and Special Initiatives showed that production of auto sector remained mainly in negative during the first quarter as compared to the same period a year ago. Government’s lax import policy for different vehicles through various schemes was seen as the main reason for this negative production.

Only 300 units of sport utility vehicles were produced this fiscal in the first quarter against 642 units last year in the same period, showing a decline of 53.27 percent. Trucks production dropped to 871 units in first quarter against 1,135 units produced in the same period last year, depicting a decline of 23.26 percent.

Tractor production dipped to 11,662 units as compared to 12,172 units in the same period a year ago, decreasing b 4.19 percent.

Production rises: However, motorcycle production climbed to 243,555 units in the period under review as against 186,670 units produced last year in the same period, a rise of 30.47 percent. The production of buses also increased 17.79 percent to 331 units as compared to 281 units last year. A slight increase of 1.8 percent was also observed in car production as total production reached 41,550 units. Last year car productions was 40,815 units.

The cotton cloth (mill sector) also saw negative growth of 1.23 percent in the first quarter. Production of only 253,600 units was recorded over 256,754 units a year ago. Bicycle production also remained in the negative list. Total production hit 102,867 units in the period under review against its last year’s production of 128,839 units, a decline by 20.16 percent. The production of sheet/float glass recorded a 3.27 percent decline in in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Total production remained 4,024 units in July-September 2007-08 against 4,160 units in the same period last year.

In the steel sector, the production of inguts and billets showed a 4.61 percent decline. Re-rolled items also recorded a decline of 0.43 percent in production during the first quarter of the current fiscal as compared to the same period last year.

The maximum increase was occurred in the production of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), which rose by 187.31 percent to total 28,340 units in the period under review while last year its 9,864 units were produced. The following items’ production recorded positive trends during the first quarter of the current fiscal year. Cigarettes 5.31 percent, cotton yarn 4.53 percent, cotton cloth (non-mill sector) up 3.03 percent, jute goods 19.29 percent, papers by 1.67percent, printing 69.98 percent, chipboard 1.60 percent soda ash 19.81 percent, caustic soda 12.24 percent, total fertilizer production 5.78 percent.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
Telecom investment grows to $8bn in 4 years

* Telecom sector has emerged as the largest recipient of FDI in Pakistan during the last few years

KARACHI: Telecom companies have invested over $8 billion during the last four years in Pakistan particularly in the mobile sector whose investment share accounts for 73 percent official sources said here Saturday.

In 2006-07, cellular mobile sector has invested over $2.7 billion, which becomes about 66 percent of total investment by the sector, sources at Pakistan Telecom Authority (PTA) said. Local loop segment of the industry is also taking off and in 2006-07 about $7.8 million were invested by this sector. LDI operators have invested about $603 million in 2006-7, which is about 15 percent of total investment by the sector.

During 2005-06, telecom sector received over $1.8 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) and emerged as the only sector of the economy to attract such huge investment where its share in total FDI crossed 54 percent. During 2006-07, telecom sector has received above $1,824 million FDI, which was about 35 percent of total FDI in the country.

Telecom sector has emerged as the largest recipient of FDI in Pakistan during the last few years. Liberalization and competition in the sector has compelled many companies to expand their infrastructure across the country, which requires more investment from foreign sources. In the last two to three years the telecom sector has attracted record inflows of FDI.

PTA has created a conducive and investor-friendly environment in the telecom sector by awarding licenses in a fair and transparent manner. All operators are rolling out their networks rapidly all over the country, which requires huge investments. It is expected that the trend of investment may continue in the next five years because large potential market still exists in Pakistan and all operators intend to grab their share. China mobile has acquired Paktel, which has contracted out $500 million worth of project to renowned companies like Ericcson, ZTE and Alcatel to roll out their networks.

Similarly, Mobilink also plans to invest $500 million in 2007-08 for improvement of quality of service and infrastructure expansion. Wateen Telecom, which has already laid out 5,400 km of optical fiber across the country, has announced to invest $600 million in next two years.

During the last four years Pakistan’s telecom sector has experienced unprecedented changes with respect to technology, regulation and growth. The liberal FDI policy by the government of Pakistan and deregulation and privatization of the sector has triggered a wave of international acquisitions in the sector. During the last year about $2 billion worth of acquisitions were made in the telecom sector.

It is viewed that stiff competition, squeezing profit margins and lack of investment resources have forced some players in the industry to rethink whether to go on their own thus convincing them to offer their shares to other players who can invest more and heavily and introduce innovation with their experience. Renowned companies from Gulf and East Asian region with in-depth experience in telecom sector are looking at Pakistan as a lucrative market to invest who have purchased shares in different telecom companies worth $1.7 billion.

Orascom from Egypt, already owning the majority stake in the leading cellular mobile operator of Pakistan has purchased the remaining 11.31 percent shares of Mobilink from the local partners from $290 million. China Mobile, which is the largest cellular mobile operator in the world, has also made its first international venture by acquiring 100 percent shares of Paktel from Millicom and the local partner for $477 million. Similarly, Warid Telecom has sold about 30 percent shares to Singtel, a well-reputed company of Singapore. PTA has facilitated these developments and is taking steps for further growth of the sector. PTA is however, vigilant to ensure that no cartels or monopoly situation is created that can harm competition. Apart from international acquisitions, there are some local acquisitions where leading companies have taken over some small companies. Mobilink has purchased Zarco, which has Wireless Local Loop (WLL) license for Faisalabad and Lahore regions having frequency of 3.5 GHz. Similarly, it has also been purchased Dancom Online, which also has frequency of 3.5 GHz all over the country. Besides, a small ISP and WOL have also been purchased by the subsidiary of Mobilink.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
WB report shows impressive rebuilding effort in quake-hit areas

Washington: The World Bank has said that out of the 575,000 houses destroyed or damaged in the October 2005 earthquake, 425,000 are at various stages of completion.

The massive reconstruction effort is supported through housing reconstruction grants from the Pakistan government – a programme partly financed by the World Bank through the Emergency Recovery Project (ERP). The earthquake left 73,000 dead and rendered three million without shelter. The consensus after the relief work was that poor quality of building construction killed more people than the earthquake itself - a natural hazard converted into a man-made disaster, the Bank said.

According to a Bank report, “The real challenge is to successfully utilise the owner-driven reconstruction approach, not only to reconstruct houses to seismic resistant construction standards in the immediate run, but, in the longer term, to promote a culture of voluntary seismic compliance in an extremely high seismic risk zone. Most of the beneficiaries are following the recommended seismic resistant construction standards. Achieving this success has required reaching out to the affected communities to convince and train them to construct differently from the ways they knew earlier.”

In the words of Shahnaz Arshad, World Bank’s team leader for the rural housing reconstruction programme, “An easy solution would have been to provide visible and immediate relief in the face of unrelenting public demand to see results, through supply-driven solutions. However, past experiences with disasters of this nature had shown that a housing reconstruction program executed in such a manner would have resulted in more problems over time. It would have provided for little beneficiary ownership and involvement in the reconstruction process, and run the risk of being unacceptable to the intended occupants.”

The Bank said that more than 75 percent of the 450,000 rural housing reconstruction grant beneficiaries have started to rebuild their homes. This progress is based on an unprecedented (6-8 times higher) first year reconstruction response by beneficiaries in Pakistan, in comparison with other recent post-disaster housing programs. The first year reconstruction surge has been followed by sustained physical progress in the second construction cycle as well.

The current trend at the plinth level inspection stage indicates that more than 80 percent of such beneficiaries are adhering to the seismic resistant construction standards developed by the Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority. This is evident from the fact that around 305,000 beneficiaries have already passed the first floor-level inspections of their houses. Almost 95,000 are nearing completion of their houses to seismic resistant construction standards. The Bank said there are two major challenges that are being gradually met, namely: maximising the judicious use of housing grants or reducing programme dropouts; and further increasing the rate of seismic compliance, especially in problematic areas.

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
US to restructure, not cut, massive aid to Pakistan

* Money will be paid for ‘earmarked’ items instead of direct transfer
* US officials believe Musharraf will doff his uniform over weekend

WASHINGTON: The Bush administration plans to try to stave off growing calls to cut aid to anti-terror ally Pakistan by proposing a broad overhaul in how billions of dollars annually is distributed, officials said on Friday.

Hopeful that President Pervez Musharraf will soon lift emergency rule, possibly as early as next week, US officials are close to settling on a strategy that would not reduce assistance but impose tough new conditions and limit or eliminate direct payments to Pakistan’s government, the officials told The Associated Press.

Such a step would affect hundreds of millions of dollars that currently flow into individual Pakistani agencies, including the defence and interior ministries, with only cursory US oversight and understanding of where it is spent, the officials said.

No direct transfer of money: Instead of direct transfers, under the new policy, money would be used to pay for specific “earmarked” items requested by the Pakistanis and hire contractors for programmes the US government is not able to run. In addition, all assistance, including that given for democracy and rule of law projects, would be subject to more rigid accounting controls, the officials said.

“There is a lot of talk about earmarking the assistance and appropriating it for specific objectives,” said an official familiar with an under way review of US aid to Pakistan.

“This would get us out of the practice of making direct payments.” The ideas, which still are under discussion, are designed to preserve Musharraf’s critical role as an ally in Bush’s campaign against terror and foster Pakistan’s foundering democracy while underscoring Washington’s unhappiness with his actions and demonstrating that they, especially in defiance of US appeals, have consequences, the officials said.

Musharraf has been slow to make good on promises to give up his role as Pakistan’s military chief, although he has relented somewhat in a crackdown on opposition figures and vowed to hold free and fair legislative elections as planned in January.

Uniform: US officials believe that after winning confirmation of his disputed October election victory on Thursday from a newly appointed “compliant” Supreme Court, Musharraf will step down from his military position, maybe over the weekend, and shortly thereafter lift emergency rule. Washington insists that must happen before the election is held.

On a visit to Islamabad last weekend, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte delivered a stern warning to Musharraf that aid to Pakistan would be jeopardised unless he backed down.

Shortly before Negroponte’s Nov 18 visit, the US ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Patterson, sent a classified cable to Washington laying out suggestions for how to boost pressure on Musharraf without precipitously cutting assistance to a nuclear-armed ally critical to fighting the threat from “militant Islam”, officials said.

“Whatever we do from here, we should use the opportunity to make the aid more directed, more focused and more under our control,” said one official, paraphrasing elements of Patterson’s classified cable. ap

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
UN agriculture fund supports microfinance in Pakistan

UNITED NATIONS (November 24 2007): The UN International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has announced that it will provide a $35 million loan to a new $46 million programme making microfinance services available to about 160,000 new clients * at least half of them women.

"It is a pivotal time for microfinance in Pakistan," says Nigel Brett, IFAD's country programme manager for Pakistan, according to a press release issued at UN Headquarters in New York.

"Future growth in this sector will depend partly on microfinance institutions and commercial banks forging successful financing partnerships. This programme will work to build such partnerships." The IFAD-supported programme will work with small farmers, livestock owners, traders and microentrepreneurs; women and households headed solely by women; and vulnerable rural households living below the poverty line.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
Korean entrepreneurs make huge investment

LAHORE (November 24 2007): An investment of more than one billion US dollars has been made in various projects in Pakistan through joint ventures of Pakistani and Korean entrepreneurs. This was stated by Chaudhry Shafay Hussain son of PML-Q President at a dinner hosted in honour of Korean Ambassador in Pakistan, Michi Yan and his wife by Pak-Korea Friendship Society.

Chaudhry Shafay Hussain said that close ties exist between Pakistan and Korea and the two countries are actively co-operating with each other at various international forums. 'Korea was relatively a less known country to the people of Pakistan till a recently but following the appointment of Chaudhry Shujat Hussian as Honorary Consul General, a systematic campaign was started to introduce the Republic of Korea to the people of Pakistan, especially the business community of the country', he added.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
Rising home remittances

Overseas Pakistanis sent a record $580 million as home remittances during October, up by 41 per cent over the amount registered for the same month last year. In the first four months of the current fiscal, remittances totalled f $2.81 billion, which was an increase of 26 per cent over the comparative period of last year.

In fact, the amount sent home by overseas residents has risen phenomenally from under $1 billion by the end of 1990s and the beginning of the year 2000. In the last fiscal year, it was a record $5.43 billion. The full potentials of remittances have yet to be realised which are estimated at around $10 billion, more or less on the lines of the Philippines.

In the past, after the remittances had touched almost $3 billion, more and more overseas Pakistanis started using the hundi or hawala for sending the money home. They got more rupees for the dollars through the hawala system. But now because of the western vigilance and monitoring, the use of the hawala channel has been reduced significantly. But if the rupee loses its stability, remittances may start coming through the hawala and the government will be the loser for that.

How best have we used of home remittances? Have we built up adequate foreign exchange reserves with the remittances that came?

We have built up a foreign exchange reserve of $16 billion but initially most of the dollars were bought from the open market and later through the inter-bank operations. Far more could not be saved because of the spending spree which resulted in a trade deficit of over $13 billion in the last financial year. The remittances covered only a part of the large trade deficit.

The rupee has come down to its lowest value in relation to the dollar, although the dollar has been falling steadily in relation to euro and has touched its lowest ebb. The State Bank of Pakistan had to intervene on two occasions to save the imperilled rupee by injecting $80 million.

Appeals are now being made to caretaker prime minister to stabilise the rupee. But it is by no means easy when the supply of dollar is not unlimited and the speculators also trade in dollars. Within the first four months of this financial year, there was a trade deficit of $5.6 billion -- with imports at $11.44 billion and exports at $5.84 billion. The fear is that the trade gap may be wider than last year when it was $13.53 billion

The imports last year were at $30.54 billion and exports were at $17 billion. The trade deficit is likely to get far worse as the oil prices are soaring, bordering on a $100 a barrel. And fuel prices are rising even higher.

In addition, the dollar is sliding and oil may cost more in dollars. In such a situation, the Indian rupee is doing well at 39 to a dollar against 61.40 of Pakistan currency. The Indian Commerce Minister. Kamalnath however says the costly Indian rupee which has risen by fourteen per cent this year against the dollar is hurting India’s exports. He wants measures to be devised to increase the exports.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, inflation will rise in case of 15 per cent increase in POL price, but also because of the 23 per cent proposed rise in power rates and seven per cent rise in gas charges. The inflationary pressures will hurt the rupee unless special remedial measures are adopted.

Meanwhile, India and Pakistan are setting up a study group to jointly promote their exports. They can co-operate well in areas like Banaspat rice, mangoes and even textiles. India has proposed to Pakistan to include 448 items more in its positive import list. Pakistan can respond to some of them positively. There is some progress in the area of trade. Certainly positive moves are being made and the two sides can gain a great deal by cooperating with each other.

Rising home remittances -DAWN - Business; November 26, 2007
 
Upgrading of the shipping fleet

Left with a mere 14 over-age vessels, the PNSC management is busy trying to mitigate its losses and finds it difficult to show Pakistan Flag world-wide due to the very old ships.. The private sector ceased operating with the closure of Pan-Islamic Steamship Co. in 1998. Its last passenger vessel Safina-e-Arab, was demolished at Gaddani Yard. Since then, the shipping industry has made no progress.

A task force on Ports and Shipping in 1996 drafted a shipping policy and revised the Merchant Shipping Act of 1921 which was presented before the government. However, the government delayed the implementation of recommended measures and entrepreneurs lost all interest. In 2001, a new policy and a Merchant Shipping Act saw the light of the day after a lapse of five years. The document has become outdated in a rapidly changing world.

The private sector did not come forward. It demanded a level playing field with the public sector monopoly. The main disadvantage was that Pakistan flag vessels were denied entry to Indian ports. In 2005, a committee with participation of private entrepreneurs was formed and the shipping policy-2001 was amended. At the same time, a shipping protocol was signed in December 2006 removing some of the impediments. Only one private sector entrepreneur ventured with a container vessel but he too could not survive. Now a major effort is needed to induct private entrepreneurs and replace the PNSC’s aging public sector fleet of 14 vessels, of which 11 are nearing 30 years.

Ports are being developed with land lord port concept and new container terminals are emerging, totally dependent on foreign ship owners. Pakistan’s growing trade of $50 billion remains largely dependent on foreign shipping lines and their local agents who increase freight at their sweet will, making our exports uncompetitive and imports expensive.

Pakistan seafarers who brought annually $70 million not long ago, were virtually jobless after 9/11 and were discriminated against. The Pakistani crew find it hard to survive while the . country continues to loose about $1.8 billion in terms of freight bill annually. Fortunately since 2003, the freight market is firm and due to a shortage of 10,000 officials, Pakistanis now find jobs with better salaries on foreign vessels. China, Philippine and India are emerging as the biggest source of human resource for world wide ship owning sector. Indian seafarers employed on foreign ships remit over $1 billion to their country.

With the changing world scenario, Pakistan has to update its marketing strategy for human resource which is second to none professionally,. . Shipping in the 21 century will be a new game of professionals. Gone are the days of monopoly trade and we have to be competitive to survive in a global free market .

Huge structural changes have taken place in the shipping industry’s ownership, financing, management and crewing of the world’s fleet. The organisation of shipping activities has become truly international, with owners, operators, charters and crews coming from many different countries.

The changes have been accompanied by effective deregulation, particularly in the pay and conditions on board for seafarers. ‘Unwittingly and unintentionally, the shipping industry has found itself with the world’s first working example of a relatively open labour market.

The development of international technical standards and their implementation through port state control have not been matched by agreement and enforcement of minimum social condition. In those sectors of the industry exposed to ruthless competition on freight rates , there has been an inevitable temptation to “ cut corners “

The world shipping fleet continues to grow. It is estimated that there are around 87,000 merchant vessels of 544 millions tonnes gross, a rise nearly of one-third ( in tonnes ) in a decade. Shipyards are busy and are not accepting new orders till 2010. Certain type of ships, such as cruise ships and container vessels, have seen growth rates of as much as nine per cent per year, although there has been a decline in the number of general cargo and mixed oil, bulk, ore (OBO) carriers.

More importantly for seafarers, the importance of flags of convenience (FOCs) and second register has risen dramatically and they now cover nearly two-thirds of the ocean going merchant fleet measured by tonnage. Just 10 years ago, the proportion was 44.5 per cent “ Flagging out” to FOCs is primarily caused by a drive to cut costs, even though crew costs as a proportion of total voyage costs kept falling steadily since the 1960s. They are inevitably the first target, as one of the few variable factors ship owners can control in the short-term. However 2006 has seen an increase in crew salaries and shortage compels owners to pay the market rates. Owners who flagged out, when the trend began in the 1980s’ had a competitive advantage – said to be up to $1 million a year between a typical Netherlands flag tanker and a comparable FOC. A Japanese crew of 11 could be replaced on an FOC vessel by a South East Asian crew of 22 and will save the owner US$ l million.

The industry has seen increased specialisation in both the type of ship containers specially tankers, and roll-on roll-off ferries – and in the management of vessels. A new breed of fleet managers has grown up in the last 20 years and is present in all the traditional shipping centres of the world. Deregulation and intense competition have seen the average pay of seafarers fall by 25 per cent between 1992 and 1999 but improved 30 per cent in 2006.

Nearly a third of those at sea report working more than 12 hours a day and modern ships are just as likely as older vessels to have accommodation that is cramped, noisy and infested with cockroaches. Many seafarers are paid below the International Labour Oranisation’s minimum basic wage for an AB of $435. Far more fail to reach the ITF’s consolidated AB minimum of $1.250 ( as at 2001) although a number of vessel are signing ITF agreements. The largest study of the supply of seafarers suggests there are about 404,000 officers and 823,000 ratings worldwide. They are chasing 1.02 million jobs, split between 420,000 officers and 599,000 ratings

As a consequence, there is a slight shortage of officers and a global surplus of rating. Seafarers increasingly are from the east of Asia, the Indian subcontinent and from eastern Europe. The numbers from the industrialised countries continue to fall.

The most recent survey by the seafarers International Research Centre (SIRC) says crewing levels have stabilised with the average crew for bulkers, container ships and reefers now being 20 and 24 for tankers. Crew of mixed nationality are common, but they are chosen deliberately. Language ability and inter- regional preference are often the deciding factors. “While Filipino, Polish and Indian seafarers frequently provide large proportions of crews, they are less likely to form whole crews in FOC ships” say SIRC. English language ability is probably the decisive factor in most of these cases.

Serious thinking is necessary for growth of Pakistan’s merchant fleet and to find lucrative employment to out trained seafarers.

The writer is ex-chairman, Gwadar Port Authority

Upgrading of the shipping fleet -DAWN - Business; November 26, 2007
 
Gas project details

TEHRAN, Nov 25: Technical details of the gas pipeline to be laid between Iran, Pakistan and India are being finalised without India’s participation.

Irna quoted Hassan Montazer Torbati, representative of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), as saying that changes could be made if and when

New Delhi decided to join the negotiations.

Technical discussions are expected to be finish in a month’s time when the final document will be ready for signing by officials of the two countries.

India and Pakistan are yet to reach an agreement on gas transit fee.

India says it will join the project after it settles the issue of transit fee with Pakistan.—PPI

Gas project details -DAWN - Top Stories; November 26, 2007
 
Crisis worries investors: analysts

ISLAMABAD (November 26 2007): With names like Next, McDonald's and Rolls Royce appearing in Pakistan's cities, evidence of growing foreign investment is easy to see-but analysts warn that emergency rule could put it all at risk. President Pervez Musharraf imposed a state of emergency three weeks ago warning that militancy and a meddling judiciary were imperilling not only the country's stability, but also its economy.

The nuclear-armed Islamic republic has experienced a boom since Musharraf seized power in a coup in 1999, with government figures recording growth last year of 7.0 percent - one of the fastest rates in the world. Foreign investment was around 10 billion dollars for the past year, much of it from Arab nations and the United States.

Despite continuing mass poverty, signs of that growth are widespread. Mobile phone masts are popping up everywhere, with people benefiting from lower tariffs due to heated competition between Pakistani, Norwegian, United Arab Emirates, Chinese and Egyptian-owned companies.

In the cities, banks offer easy loans for almost anything - houses, cars, televisions, computers, microwave ovens, refrigerators and air conditioners.

Porsche, Mercedes, Audi and Rolls Royce have all opened gleaming showrooms in the eastern city of Lahore.

But analysts and business leaders say the negative image of emergency rule, together with curbs on the media and the arrests of thousands, may have harmed the country economically.

Credit rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's downgraded Pakistan's debt outlook to negative from stable after Musharraf imposed the emergency.

Mohammad Zubair Khan, an Islamabad-based economic analyst who was commerce minister in the 1996 caretaker government, said the crisis has multiplied the concerns of foreign and domestic investors.

"The possibility of a political confrontation has thrown even the existing business plans in jeopardy," said Khan, also a former International Monetary Fund official.

"Existing export orders are being cancelled because the importers who want their items to be delivered on time are not sure." The instability also hit the stock market, which suffered its biggest ever single day fall-4.57 percent-on November 5 following untrue rumours that Musharraf had been toppled by his army deputy.

"The impact of the emergency has started to be seen," agreed Tanvir Ahmad Sheikh, the president of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

"It is bound to have a negative impact on foreign investment as developed countries do not see such measures as favourable," he told AFP. "Also negative travel and business advisories deter investors from putting their money in Pakistan."

Saad Bin Ahmad, head of research at Capital One Securities, said that after November 3, inflows of foreign cash dipped. "Investors seem to be cautious as political risk has increased considerably," he said.

Even the United States-Pakistan's biggest ally and which has effectively propped up the economy with 10 billion dollars in aid since Islamabad joined the "war on terror" in 2001-has expressed concern. US ambassador Anne Patterson said emergency rule was jeopardising economic growth and upward mobility.

"This is an ominous development," she warned in a speech here. US investors were adopting a "wait and see attitude," she said, cautioning that the longer emergency rule remains in place, "the greater the long-term damage to Pakistan's economy."

Even so, the caretaker government insists the country remains on track. Earlier this month it signed off on what it said was its "biggest ever" foreign direct investment, a five-billion-dollar accord with the United Arab Emirates for an oil refinery in south-western Balochistan province.

"It reflects confidence of foreign investors over the investment friendly policies of the government," former premier Shaukat Aziz said at the time. Aziz, a former banker who also served as finance minister under Musharraf until 2004, is considered the man behind Pakistan's economic turn-around.

Underlining investor concerns, however, he has said he will not stand for parliament again when the country votes in January 8 elections.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
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