What's new

Pakistan Economy - News & Updates - Archive

Status
Not open for further replies.
Northern Areas to have elected local govts: President okays devolution package

ISLAMABAD, Oct 20: President Gen Pervez Musharraf on Saturday approved a draft empowerment package for the Northern Areas, giving enhanced political, administrative and financial powers to a region now administered by the federal government.

The president said he was confident that the package would fulfil a long-standing demand of the people of these areas.

He said the government was committed to developing neglected and under-developed areas to bring them on a par with the rest of the country.

The decision was taken at a meeting, presided over by Gen Pervez Musharraf. It was attended, among others, by the Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Northern Areas, and Maj (retd) Tahir Iqbal, the deputy chief executive of the Northern Areas, Ghazanfar Ali.

The package envisages law-making powers for the Northern Areas Legislative Council.

There had been considerable disenchantment among the people of these areas as they had to come down to Islamabad for sorting out petty matters in the ministry of Kashmir affairs and Northern Areas (Kana).

At present the areas are governed by the chief secretary who, as a representative of the federal government, enjoys unbridled powers and the deputy chief executive, as head of the NA Legislative Council, works under the directives of the Kana.

The Legal Framework Order, the sources said, had been on the table of the president for quite some time, but it could not be approved because of some “unexplained reasons”.

The sources said the step had been taken in the light of a surge in political activity in these areas after the return of the PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto. Her party has a vast following in these areas and a large number of workers had travelled to Karachi to welcome her.

The task of the preparation of the political empowerment package, the sources claimed, was assigned to the ministry of law. It took six years in drafting it in consultation with the Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Northern Areas.

Under the LFO, the federal government would devolve its powers to district governments to be set up through elections in the six districts of the Northern Areas — Gilgit, Ghanche, Gizer, Skardu, Astore and Diamer.

The president has directed authorities concerned to improve the package to accommodate viewpoints of elected representatives of the Northern Areas Legislative Council.

The NALC, the sources said, had proposed a change in the nomenclature of the council as assembly and suggested some other changes in the basic draft.

The president approved additional funding for Gilgit and Skardu airports and directed the PIA to increase the number of flights to both areas.

He pledged more funds for development projects in these areas with the support of the Asian Development Bank.

Northern Areas to have elected local govts: President okays devolution package -DAWN - Top Stories; October 21, 2007
 
.
Banks reluctant to give loans to Sindh and Balochistan farmers

ISLAMABAD (October 21 2007): Banks are reluctant to give agricultural credit to the farmers of Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP as lending environment in these areas has not improved, Sources in the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) told Business Recorder here on Saturday.

They said that the major bottlenecks in disbursing agricultural loan to farmers in these provinces are non-co-operation by the revenue departments in issuance of passbooks, issuance of bogus passbooks, lack of one-window operation by banks, law and order situation, default of farmers in Balochistan, and limited availability of passbooks especially in Sindh where about 250,000 farmers do not have the passbooks.

They said that commercial banks, like Habib Bank (HBL) and United Bank (UBL) have failed to achieve their loan disbursement targets while the big player, National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), could hardly meet the target of Rs 28 billion during last fiscal year.

Domestic private banks like Mybank, Habib Metropolitan Bank, KASB Bank, Prime Commercial Bank, Saudi Pak Bank, Bank of Khyber and Standard Chartered (Pakistan) Bank met the same fate due to absence of conducive atmosphere, in addition to limited branch network in the rural areas.

Sources said agricultural credit has not been equally distributed among the provinces, rather disparity among the provinces has increased. The share of Punjab during last six years increased from 73 percent to 84 percent, whereas the shares of Sindh and Balochistan declined from 19.59 percent to 10.25 percent and 1.51 percent to 0.25 percent, respectively.

Over last year share of Punjab has increased from 83.03 percent to 84.34 percent and share of Sindh decreased from 10.96 percent to 10.25 percent, whereas the share of Balochistan further declined by about 50 percent from 0.42 percent to 0.25 percent.

Sources said that there was some improvement in achieving credit disbursement targets in Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP after following the initiatives taken by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which include issuance of guidelines for livestock and fisheries financing, development of strategy paper to increase outreach of agriculture credit, arranging banking facilities for Pakistan's largest Cattle Colony, Karachi, issuance of handbook on agri finance products of banks and publication of various documents/material in English and Urdu languages for the awareness of the farming community.

The SBP also took measures to constitute a task force on Islamic products for agri financing, develop framework on crop loan insurance in consultation with major banks and insurance companies, conduct awareness building seminar at Lahore under Asian Development Bank (ADB) project, liaise with Sindh Board of Revenue for information of district committees on Passbook issues, conduct successful 10 outreach and awareness training programmes, arrange 5 half days training programmes on agriculture finance of the officials of SBP and Minfal and revise and rationalise database for agricultural credit, they added.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
.
Ecnec likely to approve first nuclear fuel enrichment plant

ISLAMABAD (October 21 2007): The government is expected to give final approval to a landmark project for establishing first 'Nuclear Fuel Enrichment Plant' (NFEP), aimed at indigenously enriching nuclear fuel to reduce the country's dependency on imports, sources told Business Recorder on Saturday.

The project, costing Rs 13.7 billion along with other 26 other schemes, will come up for consideration of the Executive Committee of National Economic Council (Ecnec) in its meeting on Monday, October 22. The overall cost of 26 other development projects, which are on the agenda of the meeting, has been estimated at over Rs 132 billion.

The meeting will be presided over by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. The Central Development Working Party (CDWP) in its meeting in July had approved the NFEP project, which is believed to be Pakistan's first bid to reduce dependence of its nuclear power programme on imported fuel.

The price of nuclear fuel is increasing in the international market. The project is of national importance, and it is of utmost importance to help Pakistan attain the nuclear power generation target of over 8800 MW by 2030.

The cost of the project includes foreign exchange component of Rs 8.136 billion. The project will be funded through budgeted Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). The plant will be located near Chak Jhumra, Faisalabad, in Punjab. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission is the sponsoring agency of the scheme.

The objective of the project is to install nuclear enrichment plant with capacity of 150 tons per annum, which would fuel the nuclear power generation reactors. The project would be completed in three phases. Each phase will be completed in five to six years in which one module will be set up having capacity to enrich about 150 tons per year feed natural (FN) gas, apart from Separative Power of 100 tons Separative Work Unit (SWU-kg/year).

Hence, at this pace, four modules will be set up by 2030. The government's energy security action plan has envisaged increasing the share of nuclear power from 1 to 4.2 by installing 8880 MW nuclear power plants by 2030.

Apart from this, Ecnec will also consider the development scheme of oil and gas exploration in Balochistan-opening of activities in Tribal Areas (Revised). This is also one of the important projects to be considered. Pakistan is largely dependent on imported oil. Now, the government is finalising an agreement with Iran for gas import. The country is becoming more and more energy-deficient, which has necessitated to intensity oil and gas exploration activities.

Other projects in the energy sector include Chemical Processing Plant (CPP)-Phase-I Pakistan Nuclear Power Fuel Complex (PNPFC), Chashma Hydropower Power Project (184 MW) (2nd revision).

Addition of four 500 and 220 KV sub-station and associated T/L NTDC integrated system, 220 KV D/L from Chasma to Ludewala for interconnection of CHASHNUPP-2, 220 KV Rohri sub-station and associated T/L for dispersal of power from IPPs of Fuji foundation and Engro near Dahrki and Electrification of villages in district Dera Bugti in Balochistan province are other projects in the energy sector.

Projects in food and agriculture sector include Restructuring and Strengthening of National Agriculture Research System (Balochistan) and National Biosaline Agriculture Programme (NABSAP).

In water resources, the projects of Balochistan Small Scale Irrigation Project, Toiwar/Batozai Storage Dam Project, and Rehabilitation/ reconstruction of Bolan dam Project (Revised PC-I) will be considered by Ecnec.

In transport and communications sector, the projects are Construction of New Carriageway; National Highway N-65 Nuttal-Sibi section including Sibi Baypass (5km), Construction of a 41 km long link / service road between the Turbat - Hoshab stretch of the proposed Gwadar - Ratodero Motorway (M8) and adjoining villages, Rehabilitation and Improvement of 124 km DI Khan - Mughalkot Road (N-50), revised, Construction of Surab- Basima-Nag-Pangjur-Hoshab road N-85 (Total length 454 km), (revised), Fourth Highway Project; Construction of 507.53 km of Additional Carriageway and Provision of 153 km of overlay on the national highway N-5 (Revised), Paksat project (Phase-I) extension.

In devolution and area development the Linking of Nara Amazai and Bait Gali union councils of district Haripur with Kala Dhaka area district Mansehra including provision of Higher Education Opportunities for the Students of Balochistan and FATA (President directive) is also on the agenda of the meeting.

The schemes of 'Clean Drinking Water for All' (CDWA) project (revised PC-I), Acquisition of land for establishment of engineering university at Islamabad in collaboration with foreign universities (HEC) (revised), Oceanographic Research Vessel for Coastal Waters and Establishment of Pak-China friendship Center and some other schemes will also be considered in the meeting.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
.
AEDB to set up 18 megawatts wind farm in Gharo

KARACHI (October 21 2007): Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB), Sindh will set up an 18 Mega Watt wind farm for power generation through wind in Gharo at an estimated cost of 14.18 million dollar, Business Recorder learnt here on Saturday.

The feasibility report for the installation of 18 MW wind power project in Gharo, has already been prepared by Pakistan Meteorological Department, sources in Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) said. They said that the payback period timing of the total investment made on the project was estimated at around 7-8 years.

"The power generated through wind turbines would cost Rs 2.5 to 3 per Kilowatt Hour which is very cheap," they said and added that the project would be first step towards generating electricity through alternative ways.

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has recently conducted a detailed Wind Power Potential Survey along the coastal areas of the country and Ministry of Science and Technology provided the funding for it. The study has enabled us to identify the potential areas where economically feasible wind farms could be established to generate power, they added.

One interesting aspect of the survey is that contrary to general impression, Sindh coastal areas have more potential than Balochistan coastal areas, they said. "In Sindh potential areas spread over 9,700 Kilometres where wind farms could be established for power generation."

In Gharo, where 18 MW wind farm would be set up, PMD collected wind data and recorded air measurements during the last 24 months. The annual wind speed is estimated to be 6.8 m/s at 50 meters above the ground level while aerial density is 608.6 W/m, which means that the area is in category of good power potential and economically feasible wind farm could be set up there.

Using the measured wind data, the 18 MW wind farm comprising thirty 600-k turbines will have net power generation capacity of 31 million kWh per year corresponding to capacity factor of 28 percent. After the payback period, the financial benefits would be extended to the government besides saving its huge amount on purchasing electricity generated through oil, sources said.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
.
'Garment sector can provide millions of jobs to women'

ISLAMABAD (October 21 2007): Pakistan's under utilised garment sector has the potential to provide millions of jobs to women and bring about a socio-economic change in the country, Secretary Textiles Zafar Mahmood told Business Recorder here on Saturday.

In an exclusive interview Zafar said "it is a pity that only 5 percent of our cotton production is utilised by the garment sector which provides the highest value addition in textile sector."

This industry is distributed in small, medium and large-scale units most of them having 50 machines and below. Large units are now coming up in the organised sector of the industry. The industry enjoys the facilities of duty free import of machinery and income tax exemptions.

Zafar said this sector has tremendous export performance for the future, as it has three distinctive advantages ie (a) highest capital output ratio (b) highest capital employment ratio and (c) highest export generation.

He said globally garment industry employs over 90 percent women workers as machine operators, cutter of cloth, stitching, pattern designer, design maker, packager, quality controller, value chain processor, manager etc.

He said the disciplined and peaceful women work force in garment industry of China, Bangladesh and Vietnam had not only cut down the cost of production by 50 percent, it had also empowered women and brought about a healthy change in social fabric of these countries.

These countries trained and efficient women workforce has made their textile products cheaper in the international market and adversely affected textile exports of Pakistan and India. Zafar pointed out that because of feudal customs and social constraints, and lack of training facilities in the past, Pakistani women could not work in large numbers in the made-ups, garment, knitwear and other concerned units. They could easily contribute Rs 5000 to 6000 to the monthly family income. He said there are 750,000 stitching machines, 450,000 in organised and 300,000 in non-organised sectors, which were mainly operated by male operators.

He said under the Export Development Plan prepared by the Planning Commission, a well co-ordinated programme has been launched for training of women for employment in the textile industry.

The Textile Garment Skill Development Board has been charged with carrying out skills development of workers for the industry within the 30 garment units. Besides production of contamination free cotton, project financing for small and medium units.

Secretary Textiles expected to train 10,000 to 12,000 stitching machine operators in Karachi, Lahore and Faisalabad garment units every year. The purpose of this training is to build a critical mass of skilled workers.

The other provincial and federal government vocational training institutes have their separate certification programmes to meet industries' ever-growing needs of skilled workers.

He said the scope of these training programmes is to be widened to terry towel and bed lenin sectors during the current financial year. He said of the total ginned cotton, 30.69 percent is used by made ups (17.48 percent), Knitwear (7.67 percent) and garments (5.52 percent) which fetch about $6 billion of $10.5 billion Textile exports.

Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
 
.
Risks to growth momentum

Pakistan’s economy is under mounting pressures which could upset the growth projection for the current fiscal year. There are alarming reports of pest damage to the two main autumn crops — rice and cotton — and the international oil prices now at $88 are rising.

Shopkeepers in Karachi reported a staggering 30 per cent drop in Eid sales this year. It shows a huge erosion of the consumers’ purchasing capacity because of the inflation and more particularly high food prices. Food inflation is in double digits for the last several months. The drop in Eid sales is a manifestation of shrinking market for consumer goods.

Construction picked up in the city in last few years but the number of unoccupied apartments is on the increase as many of those who booked flats and houses are finding it difficult to meet rising costs. Construction companies offer one price for booking flats and then demand an increase on one pretext or the other. In many cases, the increase in their demand ranges between 30-40 per cent of the original offer.

Banks thrived most in last five to six years. Their profits touched almost Rs100 billion in the year 2006. But they now fear a 22 per cent drop in their profits during 2007.

Exports are moving at a much slower pace than imports and the trade deficit is widening Inflation and current account deficits are seen by many as two major threats to the economy.

All these negative trends have appeared after an impressive average growth rate of over seven per cent over the last five years. But then there is a consensus that the average growth was mainly driven by domestic consumption without corresponding increase in the domestic industrial and agricultural production and hence the doubts about its sustainability.

‘’Purchase of import-oriented-electronic appliances and cars was driven by bank loans’’, a young researcher in a private bank said and pointed out that banks are now reporting growing loan defaults and a sharp drop in demand of consumer credit. ‘’The crunch has to come, if not today than tomorrow’’, he said. Customers prefer to curtail their demand because of high interest rates and rising service charges.

However, there is another view also. A top garment exporter who has strong links in USA and EU is of the view that emerging political scenario for early 2008 will matter a lot. Pakistan can expect a bail out by the international financial institutions and a relatively better market access for its products in western countries.

For the year 2007-08, the government projected a 10 per cent growth in export targeted at $19.2 billion. Imports growth in the current fiscal year was expected to be moderate at nine per cent to claim $29.6 billion. In the first quarter, the export grew at less than five per cent to $4.25 billion. The imports grew by 8.5 per cent to over $8 billion.

‘ ‘Trade deficit during current fiscal year is bound to be close to $15 billion or 50 per cent more than projected by the government’’. a well-known garment manufacturer and exporter anticipated who does not want to be identified for portraying a bleak economic picture. Export growth is sluggish for last three years and is showing no signs of recovery even though the exchange value of currencies of Pakistan’s two main competitors in textiles--India and China-has appreciated.

‘ ‘But India and China continue to provide visible and invisible cash subsidy to their exporters in a number of ways’’, argued the garment exporter. Adil Mahmood, the Chairman of the newly-formed All Pakistan Textiles Association (APTA) informed from Lahore by telephone that about one million spindles of textiles are inoperative because of closure of about 160 textile mills. Two top knitwear companies in Lahore are said to have been closed down while a few in Karachi, Faisalabad and Multan are considering to pull shutters down.

Cotton prices are crawling upwards and banks are not ready to oblige millers with fresh credit lines as they have been unable to pay off their previous loans. The President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Sheikh Tanvir Ahmad, has pleaded on a number of occasions for a two-year moratorium on repayment of loans. The APTA has indicated about Rs200 billion outstanding loans against textiles.

Textile is expected to net in about $12 billion export earnings during the current fiscal year. It could hardly fetch $10 billion export in 2006-07. ‘’Even to maintain last year’s export level has now become a daunting task’’, a local textile manufacturer said.

Industry leaders now fear a further hike in production cost from the impact of rising international oil prices. ‘’The 2007-08 budget was drawn up on assumption of $56-58 a barrel cost’’ a business analyst said. But within less than four months, the oil prices have gone up by more than 45 per cent with no signs of respite. Thanks to the Presidential elections and expected general elections early next year, the government has spared the consumers from the impact of rising oil prices and is apparently taking hit on its budget. But how long will government absorb the rising cost of oil import and provide a cushion to consumers?

The special secretary, ministry of finance, Dr Ashfaq Ahmad Khan avoided a direct answer when asked by a private television channel recently as to when will the petroleum prices be reviewed. He feared media will come down rather harshly on the government whenever a price review was made. But industry leaders apprehend an increase in energy cost very soon which is bound to push up the production cost with an adverse impact on exports.

‘’The government does not have any contingency plan to meet the challenging situation, ‘’ economist Asad Saeed said. Pakistan has managed to weather these difficult times because of the depreciation of dollar. But Asad and many businessmen are of the view that the government should now give a hard look at the foreign exchange reserves. ‘’Foreign currencies of our reserves should have something to do without exports and imports’’ a businessmen said.

With little hopes of export growth showing some recovery, the government is expected to pay more for imports in 2007-08 as oil price is on the increase. The government has already started importing wheat after having claimed to have harvested a record bumper crop of more than 23 million tons. Wheat flour availability is still a problem for the consumers who are paying Rs18--20 for a kilogram. The government has been forced to import tomatoes. International import prices of edible oil, milk powder and pulses are also on the rise. Import of all these food items are being made after the State Finance Minister Omar Ayub Khan claimed of having achieved complete food autarky in his budget speech in June. In all probability, the import bill this fiscal year will go beyond $32 billion.

The State Bank of Pakistan in its monetary policy statement early this year conceded rising inflation. Tight monetary policy made credits expensive for private sector but failed to control inflation. The situation is bound to aggravate with impact of rising international oil prices. The National Economic Council has set 6.5 per cent inflation target. The Consumer Price Index is being driven by food prices. Inflation hurts fixed income group and it has deep implications for export-oriented production.

Risks to growth momentum -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
Perceptions of the rich-poor gap



Now that there are indications to suggest that the policy regime which is already in its eighth year has secured its continuity for the next five years at least, it is important to reiterate that its most disturbing fall-out has been the widening rich-poor gap. To be fair, the gap was not created by the regime. But its strategy of growth above all has widened it and there is nothing in the pronouncements of its main protagonists that it is likely to do any more than continue attempting to alleviate poverty – which amounts to first inflicting a wound and then dressing it.

In a recent interview with the networks, General Musharraf observed that slogans like roti, kapra aur makan are raised to hoodwink the people. He does not believe in sloganeering and has always talked about changing the condition of the people. Unfotunately, the perceptions are very different. As much as 56 per cent of respondents reported worsening of their economic condition in the survey conducted by the International Republican Institute.

If one is skeptical about an externally sponsored survey reaching this particular result, then we may look at one of our own. Data released by the government in the latest Economic Survey, despite some creative accounting, provide corroborative evidence. Between 2001 and 2005, the period for which substantial poverty reduction is claimed, 60 per cent of the population experienced a reduction in its share of the pie, with the economic condition of the bottom 20 per cent worsening the most. A staggering 93 per cent of the gains concentrated in the top 20 per cent bracket.

Ever since the market struck back after the collapse of the statist development models in the eighties, issues of income distribution took a back seat in policy making as well as academic teaching. The focus shifted to absolute poverty as some sort of a doable public good, compared to the difficult issues of relative positions involving endless debates on fairness and equity. However, as poverty has not been falling as fast as was predicted, there is a renewed interest in distributional issues.

With a view to exploring these issues, Nadia Saleem, a lecturer, and myself are jointly giving an MPhil course entitled “Economics of Poverty and Income Distribution.” at the G.C. University, Lahore. MPhil is a higher teaching-cum-research degree after the Masters level and the admission requires a reasonably good level of academic attainment and the satisfactory passing of a test conducted by the HEC.

Before starting the actual teaching so as to avoid influencing their opinions, the students were asked to return a questionnaire stating the major economic problem of Pakistan. The choice was limited to unemployment, inflation, poverty, income inequality and energy crisis. The results of the analysis, carried out by Ms Saleeem, are given in the pie chart. To our surprise, 50 per cent of the students chose income inequality as the major economic problem. Inflation was next, chosen by 28.6 per cent. Unemployment occupied the third place, being the choice of 14.3 per cent. Poverty came at the end with 7.1 per cent indicating it as their choice. There were no takers for energy crisis.

The economics curriculum at the universities being what it has been in recent years, we had not expected income inequality to be the choice of an overwhelming majority. Our expectation was that the students would either choose what affects them most personally, i.e., unemployment. Or it would be inflation, which they experience at level of household and are also taught in classes with a fair degree of detail. With a view to understanding a bit more about the majority choice, another questionnaire was circulated to find out more about the backgrounds of the students. This was even more revealing.

First of all, 71.5 per cent of those choosing income inequality were women and 28.5 per cent were men. We cannot read too much in this result as 78.6 per cent of the entire student body consists of women. In terms of the age composition, those choosing income inequality were a mature group of students: 57.1 per cent belonged to age group 22-28 years and 14.4 per cent to 30 years and above. Looking at the employment status, 57.1 per cent are employed, 28.5 per cent were unemployed and only 14.4 per cent had never been employed.

It seems that that the mature students, who are or have been in employment, have a better idea of the inequalities and injustices prevailing in the society. None of them had yet seen the data on increasing inequality in the country. They had neither done any formal reading nor received any formal instruction in the field income distribution. Their identification of income inequality as the major economic problem facing the country was based purely on the basis of a keen observation of the reality on the ground and the ability to interpret it on the basis of their overall knowledge of economics.

The results of this obviously limited survey are presented here not as representing some overall tendency or trend. Finding that will require a much larger and more systematic sample. Our purpose was only to illustrate the point that perceptions of a rising rich-poor gap exist and may well be expanding into a world of us and them. This does not augur well for the long term sustainability of the growth process in particular and the stability of the social fabric in general.

Inclusive growth, participatory processes, and programmes to improve access to physical, financial and social assets need to move well beyond rhetoric. What is worrying is the fact that inequality, which had begun to decline between 1999 and 2001, should start rising again in 2005. Worse, the sectors which have shown the highest growth, such as the financial sector, also register the highest Gini coefficients, i.e. the technical measure of inequality.

Perceptions of the rich-poor gap -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
Losing one billion a day

REGARDLESS of the reasons of geopolitics behind the phenomenon and equally regardless of the doubts over its long-term sustainability, the fact remains that the economy today is enjoying a sort of purple patch that is unprecedented in ways more than one.

Basking in the glory – reflected or otherwise – the economic managers may afford to ignore it for the time being, but in the long run they, and the nation, may regret wasting a huge chunk of this bonanza due to shortsightedness in broad policy terms. The drain on the national economy, mind you, is to the tune of as much as six per cent of the GDP, and, worse still, it is a loss that is avoidable with a little bit of policy adjustment and fine-tuning.

The Strategic Country Environmental Assessment report that has been recently released by the World Bank is a timely reminder for our policymakers that, one, economic progress is not necessarily synonymous with development; and, two, that lack of development is a direct drain on economic progress.

Pakistan is the most urbanised country in South Asia, according to the report, with a booming economy. Economic reforms have paid their dividend and the country has achieved record growth rates, buoyant levels of investment and sustainable fiscal balances. Long term growth rates too have been reasonable, averaging 2.6 per cent since 1960, exceeding most other countries in the region.

Even in recent time, Pakistan has achieved impressive macroeconomic results, “with ambitious reforms resulting in an acceleration of growth from 3.3 per cent in 1997-2002 to over 6.5 per cent during 2002-2005”. However, despite these historical and recent achievements, social and natural resource indicators continue to demonstrate the daunting development challenges facing the country, and in particular the importance of strengthening environmental management to reduce risks to health and natural resource productivity, and to sustain economic progress. The burden, says the report, is threatening to undermine growth prospects.

Using conservative estimates in the absence of reliable official data, the World Bank report has put the mean annual cost of environmental degradation as approximately six per cent of the GDP, or Rs366 billion per year. In simple terms, it is a loss of a little over a billion per day! The figure incidentally is of a magnitude similar to the recent growth performance recorded by the official economy. As such, the two all but negate each other, with the result that despite record GDP growth rates, a number of development indicators continue to show limited improvement at best, and negative growth at worst.

The report has identified seven key areas that are contributing to the economic drain. The highest cost is from inadequate water supply, sanitation and hygiene, followed by agricultural soil degradation, indoor air pollution, urban air pollution, lead exposure, rangeland degradation and deforestation.

The most significant causes of environmental damage identified and estimated are: illness and premature mortality caused by air pollution (indoor and outdoor) – almost 50 per cent of the total damage; diarrhoeal diseases and typhoid due to inadequate water supply, sanitation and hygiene – about 30 per cent of the total; and reduced agricultural productivity due to soil degradation – about 20 per cent of the total.

That is not all though. The litany of woes is much lengthier. For instance, with more than one-third of the Pakistani population living in towns and cities, exposure of the workforce to urban and industrial pollution is a rapidly growing concern. Overall, environmental health risks are estimated to contribute more than 20 per cent of the total burden of disease. At about 25 per cent, the contribution of agriculture to the national GDP is close to the regional average, but the sustainability of this production is subject to greater environmental threats than in other South Asian countries. The irrigated share of crop land – 80 per cent – is almost twice the regional average, but nearly 40 per cent of this area is waterlogged, and 14 per cent is saline. Forest and rangeland production is also at risk, with rates of deforestation about ten times the regional average, and rangeland productivity estimated to be only one-third of its potential, with up to 80 per cent of rangeland degraded.

While reminding that the estimates represent the lower bounds of damage, the report stresses that there could have been several other areas doing similar or more damage – most notably fisheries and coastal zone degradation – but they have not been included because there is no adequate data on such sectors.

The magnitude of these costs certainly indicates that environmental decay has become a serious development concern. Furthermore, accelerated growth and urbanisation present additional environmental challenges. “Capturing the development dividend of growth calls for complementary policies that address environmental issues while facilitating development,” says the report.

The consequences of not adjusting the policy focus, says the report, may seriously threaten the country’s poverty reduction efforts and long-term economic growth. The limits of resource-intensive development suggest that when the costs of natural resource depletion, pollution and consumption of fixed capital are factored in, gross national savings are cut by half.

It is interesting that while the linkages between environment and poverty through the impact of environmental degradation on livelihoods, health and vulnerability are explicitly recognised in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which was presented in December 2003, not much has been done in this regard in practical terms. The legislative framework for environmental management is largely in place, and many aspects of the reform agenda can have positive environmental outcomes, but action on the ground, as happens often, leaves a lot to be desired.

Taking a historical view of the issues involved, the report concedes that since economic growth is the main vehicle for promoting development and reducing poverty in a sustainable way, it could, therefore, be argued that environmental degradation is the inevitable price to pay for economic success. This is typically justified in terms of an empirical regularity termed the Environmental Kuznets Curve that shows that as countries develop, pollution intensity increases at first and then declines. This may well be the case with Pakistan, but the concession made by the World Bank report does come with a warning: “It would be misleading to assume that this empirical finding implies that environmental neglect is an economically prudent development strategy. In many cases prevention or mitigation of damage may be more cost effective than neglect. In the short run environmental interventions may lower profits or utilise scarce public funds, but these costs need to be compared to the associated benefits.”

In terms of suggesting a possible remedy to the relative inactivity on the part of the executing agencies despite the presence of relevant legislation, the report favours the institution of performance-based grants under the National Finance Commission instead of direct intervention by the federal government to ensure the implementation of national policies. The carrot of incentives and the stick of accountability may do the trick.

Losing one billion a day -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
Fears about discarded technology

By Engr Hussain Ahmad Siddiqui

A number of power projects based on indigenous coal are coming up in the private sector sponsored by local investors. Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) has sanctioned four independent power producer (IPP) projects of aggregate capacity of 1,550 MW, as integrated coal mining-cum-power generation projects, to be located at mine-mouths of Thar, Lakhra and Sonda-Jherruk coalfields.

The feasibility studies for all these projects, which are scheduled to commence commercial operations by June 2012, are currently at various stages of preparation, though pace of work is slow. These studies are required to be credible bankable documents of an internationally acceptable standard, in accordance with the Power Policy 2002, ensuring advanced technology to be employed.

But the fear is that obsolete technology may be employed in the coal-based power projects resulting in environmental degradation. In a bid to avoid procedural formalities and financial commitments, the sponsors are obtaining approval from the government, routing their projects through other agencies, like the Board of Investment, that have no jurisdiction whatsoever on processing such projects. In fact the government mandates the PPIB as a single-window facility for implementation of power projects of above 50 MW capacity in the private sector, which has the requisite capacity, capability and specialised expertise.

The major issue is that sponsors of such projects have not established their financial and technical credentials and are not willing to prepare independent feasibility report for the project, in accordance with the Power Policy 2002. This way they also save arranging a bank guarantee for an amount at the rate of $1,000 per MW to the government, a pre-requisite for issuance of the Letter of Interest (LOI) as per Power Policy, besides avoiding a project fee.

In fact, the prescribed feasibility study is essentially required to be undertaken before launching the project of this nature, which would conform to the requirements of the government, the power-regulator, the power-purchaser, the lender, the environmental control authority as well as the investor himself.

Such sponsors, in violation of the applicable rules and regulations, are not conducting any feasibility studies that would principally allow them to negotiate a tariff with the power purchaser and the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepta).

These sponsors are currently lobbying for hypothetical determination and announcement by the Nepra of an up-front tariff for the proposed power plants based on indigenous coal.

This however is being resisted by Nepra, on its merit, as in the absence of any feasibility study on the respective project, or for that matter of any such project, the proposed tariff will be unrealistic and consumers will have to pay higher price for the electricity.

On the other hand, such a hasty decision on the part of regulatory body may hamper further investment, particularly foreign, in the power sector. The feasibility study has to define the parameters of technology, machinery, cost of project and other economics that obviously vary from project to project and form the basis for determination of the power tariff in each case. For tariff determination, it is also of prime importance to take into consideration various provisions, particularly related to the incentives, benefits and concessions, of the National Coal Policy, which is not yet in place.

Of late, the domestic investors have shown interest in developing integrated coal mine-cum-power generation projects. Habibullah Energy plans to establish a 150-MW capacity mine-mouth plant, whereas Fateh Textile will develop a 200-MW plant, both based on Lakhra coalfields. Lakhra coalmines, with total mine-able reserves of 305 million tons, are well developed and mining is in progress since 1960, though under-capacity. It is a major potential area for establishing an associated power plant by the private sector.

Various studies undertaken by the USAID, JICA and the Chinese and the Polish firms during different periods from 1986 to 1996 have confirmed techno-economic viability of a series of 250-300 MW capacity power plants based on Lakhra coal. Yet such a project remains a pipedream so far, in spite of existing infrastructure. Wapda’s plan to set up additional three units of 50 MW each was dropped many years ago so as to encourage private sector.

Likewise, Dadabhoy Hydrocarbon is setting up a 200-MW power plant based on Sonda-Jherruk coalfields, which are the second largest coalfields in Sindh with reserves of over seven billion tons, and a 1,000-MW project by Hasan Associates on Thar coal, the country’s largest coal resources.

In addition, Idrees Steel Co propose to develop a 300 MW capacity plant based on Thar coal. Descon Group has plans to develop 125 MW mine-mouth project at Naukot, Distt Tharparkar and another 125 MW project at Golarchi, Badin. Also, Olympia Chemical Co plans to establish an integrated project to generate 76 MW electricity. It is yet to be seen as to how many investors are really serious to develop the respective integrated projects.

Here, one may recall a project sponsored by Associated Group/Smith Co-generation Management Inc. for which mine-lease area of Lakhra coalfields was allotted by the provincial government in 1996. In spite of obtaining repeated extensions of the LOI until 2003, the sponsors could not even prepare a feasibility report for the project. Instead of imposing a penalty for the opportunity that the nation lost for almost a decade, the sponsors were recently favoured to takeover Wapda’s Lakhra power station on lease, without any bidding.

One of the projects not being routed through the PPIB, and thus not following the Power Policy, is reported to be sponsored by TASAQ International (Pvt) Ltd, in association with China National Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CMC) of China. They are going ahead with the implementation of an integrated mining-cum-power generation project of 2x300 MW capacity based on Sonda-Jherruk coalmines. The project is to be constructed on BOO (build, operate and own) basis, and has not yet obtained the LOI from the PPIB, as required. The initial agreement (MOU) was signed in August 2002 and the CMC has concluded an agreement with the government of Sindh on November 12, 2006 for conducting coal geological investigations.

Pakistan is emerging as an important market for coal-mining equipment and coal-based power generation equipment. Not surprisingly though, such sponsors plan to develop coalmines and install a power plant with the assistance of the Chinese, ignoring the latest technological developments.

This may precisely be the reason why they would be reluctant to seek approval of the project through proper channel, where technology, plant efficiency, plant availability, energy consumption, capital cost, competitiveness, environmental control and other parameters of the project are duly verified and monitored.

The development of an integrated mining-cum-power generation project is a complex and arduous process posing a number of issues, problems and challenges, which should be dealt with professionally in the feasibility study. First and foremost, comprehensive survey, exploration and investigations are to be conducted in the leased area to identify and verify suitable quality and quantity of coal resources on a long-term basis, say 30--40 years.

This is crucial for project implementation but unfortunately not taken seriously by the sponsors. Also, the geo-technical investigations and hydrological studies have not been carried out satisfactorily by the sponsors of these projects. The government of Sindh, which is responsible to allow exploration license or mining lease to the sponsors, has repeatedly shown its concern over the unsatisfactory situation, even sometimes threatening to cancel their lease, but to no avail.

Though China has the largest coal mining industry in the world, the technology employed is conventional and obsolete, and the mining management remains outdated. This results in low productivity, higher power consumption, poor mining conditions and higher pollutant emissions. A large number of accidents occur in coalmines in China, causing more than 6,000 deaths each year. These represent almost 80 per cent of total number of deaths in mine-accidents worldwide. For these reasons, China is currently closing down as many as some 7,000 coalmines, whereas coal-fired power stations with capacity up to 200 MW were closed down in January 2007 as these were heavily polluting the atmosphere.

The Chinese government has banned, on March 6, 2007, the construction of coal-based power plants in future with capacity below 300 MW. Realising that larger capacity would result in higher efficiency with less energy consumption and less pollution, the newly adopted policy allows installation of 600 MW to 1,000 MW coal-based power plants.

Simultaneously, China is seeking collaboration with the West to acquire latest coal-mining methods and technology .China has imported large-scale coal-mining equipment from the USA, UK, Germany and Japan worth $4.5 billion during the last seven years.

The only experience Pakistan has is that of 150 MW capacity (three units of 50 MW each) power station at Khanot, District Dadu in public sector using Lakhra coal. The Chinese have supplied the machinery, said to be of advanced technology of fluidized bed combustion but it is in fact first generation technology, which was already outdated when the power station was installed.

These units are not giving satisfactory performance in terms of economy, efficiency, pollution control and operational reliability, due to a number of factors including that of the obsolete technology. Currently, only one unit, at de-rated capacity of 30 MW, is operational, whereas the other two units are not functional for quite sometime. We need to learn from our experience, rather than repeating the same, time and again.

The government needs to review its strategy, curbing back-door investment in power sector, as it shall be disastrous, unfair and discriminatory to allow setting up of coal-fired power plants, without conducting a detailed project feasibility study as per PPIB rules. As regards technology, the Chinese companies should be asked to seek strong collaboration with the consultancy companies in the Western countries specialising in the latest technology for implementation of identified projects in Pakistan.

The government should ensure that, for future projects, modern technology for mining as well as power generation is acquired. Couger Energy UK have shown interest to develop a 400-MW power plant based on Thar coal, introducing latest underground coal-gasification technology. One hopes the proposal of the British company is considered seriously on its merits.

Fears about discarded technology -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
Time to review tourism policy

Tourism has always been a “weak, palsy-stricken, churchyard-like thing” that has strutted around the potent spell of official inefficiency. Its lack of performance warrants serious analysis because despite its diverse and large base, the sector has failed to harness its full potential.

Although, unlike other natural resource-based economic development initiatives such as mining and timber production, tourism needs fewer financial resources to develop.

But tourism has never been viewed as a major engine of economic growth. In fact, we have failed to regard tourism equal to other industries capable of creating jobs, earning foreign exchange, improving terms of trade, and regional development, overcoming economic disparities and for conservation purposes.

The available literature on tourism suggests its first master plan was conceived in 1967. Although it recognised environmental considerations in general terms, it laid no emphasis on environmental conservation. Resultantly, hotels and tourists resorts emerged close to natural attractions and archaeological monuments.

The rapid urbanisation brought encroachments around monuments of historical and cultural importance, for example, around Shalimar Garden, Lahore that have impacted negatively on the prospects of cultural tourism.

Similarly, “no attention was paid to preserve potential landscapes for recreation purposes. The Nala Dek in Sialkot, Lower Bari Doab Canal in Lahore and the Bara River Peshawar were major sources of enjoyment and recreation. These potential landscapes are now being polluted by adding sewerage water into them. Similarly, the landscapes of riverfronts in Lahore, Sukkur and many other historic towns have not been exploited at all. From 1967 to the time when National Tourism Policy of 1990 went public, no policy level attempts were made to develop tourism on national level. While some isolated projects, rules, regulations and activities such as UNESCO’ Master Plan for the Preservation of Mohenjo Daro, 1972, compilation of tourists statistics in 1971 etc were seen, convergence of resources and expertise through integrated planning and cooperation among public and private sectors at federal, provincial and local levels were never sought on policy level.

Some measures were taken to control pollution in mountainous areas in 1983 and in 1988 by making expeditions responsible for leaving camping sites clean of garbage, supply of kerosene oil to the porter and contribution of clean up operation fee of $200 etc.

Then came the National Tourism Policy of 1990 with the following core objectives: it stressed on the government to ensure preservation of environment and ecology. It argued that market forces cannot be expected to ensure environmental degradation. It proposed launching of educational programmes for creating awareness and conservation efforts

The objectives of National Tourism Policy of 1990 do not appear to be enough to take care of tourism development as such. Hinged largely around preservation and conservation of environment, the policy had failed to recognise tourism as major engine of economic growth capable of generating mass employment opportunities, alleviating poverty, and positing Pakistan as a global brand capable of capitalising on the increasing international travel, trade, and investment opportunities.

It failed also to link tourism development with environment policy as a strategic national development goal. Even the stated objectives of Tourism Policy 1990 were never achieved. Degradation of natural resources continued unabated around the republic and the proposed educational programmes were never incorporated in educational curriculum.

After a gap of 11 years, the government had announced tourism policy 2001 with major highlight: tourism shall continue to be treated as industry. Year-round tourism will be promoted. Efforts will be made for qualitative improvement, development in environment, human resources, tourist services, and the tourist product. Federal and provincial governments will be asked to bring all legislation in consonance with demand of the tourist industry. It will stimulate private sector involvement in tourism through provision of industry support constructs.

It seems the government has drafted this policy in an extreme haste. The entire policy, whatever it is, is not available on website of Ministry of Tourism that has been developed or has been in the process of being developed at the ‘cost of Rs5 million for promotion of tourism industry and dissemination of information to tourists, researchers, and general public.

Other than the policies and organisations, the country has a Tourism Master Plan 2002. Prepared jointly by United Nations Development Programme, the WTO, and the government of Pakistan, the master plan had enumerated among the others, several constraints, “which must be overcome to ensure the sustainable development of tourism services:” (1) Lack of awareness amongst the general public about the structure, impact and benefits of tourism. (2) Limitations on adequately trained personnel in all sectors (3) Outdated regulations and over-regulation of tourist services and facilities in certain areas and a lack of regulation in other areas (4) Lack of investment in tourist facilities and services by both national and provincial authorities and few incentives for private investors (5) Limited and outdated infrastructure all over the country

For Pakistan to make progress in this sector, it may be recommended that the government should explore the links that exist between sustainable tourism development and natural and cultural resource management. Efforts must be directed to develop community-based tourism and recreational opportunities for a very large domestic tourist market. Ministry of tourism needs to develop a comprehensive domestic tourism policy. Similarly, the Tourism Policy 2001 must no longer look vague. The government needs to develop it properly for country to make substantial gains from global tourism market growing at seven to 12 per cent annually since 2002.

For foreign tourists Pakistan has immense potential particularly in “eco-tourism,” due to the availability of vast tracts of pristine natural settings. This we say without entangling our horns in the complex business of defining exactly the term ecotourism, but agreeing to its main feature: “(1) All forms of tourism aimed at the appreciation of both natural and traditional cultural recourse in natural areas. (2) Deliberate efforts to minimise the harmful human impacts on the natural and socio-cultural environment. (3) Support for the protection of natural, cultural assets, and the well-being of host communities.”

Actually, the ministry of tourism needs to understand that the developed countries lack pristine natural settings but have affluence, time, and desire to visit exotic places for camping and nature study etc. The forecasts by WTO in “Tourism 2020 Vision” and others state tourism volume, employment and export earning is expected to move away from developed countries towards less developed countries. Therefore, what is the point in missing yet another opportunity to harness the potential that tourism offers?

Time to review tourism policy -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
Surviving $100 a barrel

Pakistan may feel the bitter fallout of $100 a barrel as world price of oil sooner than feared earlier. The reality of such a giddy price for oil is staring us in the face today. Earlier the $100 a barrel was expected by the middle of next year but now this may become a reality by the end of two months from now.

The oil price took a leap of $9 a barrel from 79 dollars last weekend in the US where a shortage in the US oil reserve was reported. It jumped by $9 to $88 a barrel and then went up by a dollar a barrel. The immediate reason was said to be the fear of an American attack on Iran to stop its nuclear programme. That has been confirmed by President Bush that Iranian nuclear arms would mean World War III.

The US is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and even risk a war with Iran. President Bush is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and if that means yet another war in the Middle East after Iraq. He couldn’t care less, he is desperate. In addition, the oil producers want more dollars because of the falling exchange rate of the dollar in relation to stronger currencies, particularly the euro. They want to be compensated with more dollars.

Normally, when the world economic situation is not bright and oil consumption is reduced, oil prices don’t go up but not this time when the western world is facing a credit crunch following a crisis in the US property market. The International Monetary Fund’s new forecast says that economic growth in the world will be 4.8 per cent in 2008 while it will be 5.2 percent in 2007. So a combination of a threat of another war in the Middle East, shortage of the US oil reserve and the eagerness of the oil producers to get more bucks for their oil are pushing up the oil price.

Russia and the Caspian countries have together warned the US against attacking Iran but whether that will restrain the US remains to be seen. The Asian Development Bank says that Asia is the fastest developing region. That means Asia will consume far more oil but will be handicapped by the far higher price of oil. However, one part of Asia-the Middle East- will gain by the higher prices of oil – surplus money which is sought to be invested but the oil poor countries like Pakistan and India will suffer.

Pakistan which produces only 20 per cent of the oil it uses will truly suffer. Last year, the OGDC was expected to drill 100 oil and gas wells but succeeded in drilling only 50. It had no success with its offshore ventures either. Although more and offshore wells are being drilled more local companies are joining the foreign explorers. Higher price of oil touching $100 a barrel will hit domestic economy hard. But the government which earned over Rs176 billion from oil and gas may earn more while the country will suffer. Power production will become far more costly as furnace oil prices shoot up. Industrial production will cost far more.

Transportation costs will rise. Railway fares will go up and airlines will raise their fares substantially. As transportation costs rise, bus fares will shoot up and bitter disputes between passengers and the bus conductors will become common. In the farm sector, the power rate for tube wells will go up making farm output far more costly. Higher power rates will affect the service sector including hotels, restaurants and shops. Power for schools , colleges and universities will cost far more.

The government sells the oil it drills within the country at international prices. S the cost of production will go all round . Overall the cost of living will rise substantially, particularly if the POL prices are raised substantially .

Normally when the prices of imported items rise sharply, the government reduces the import duties but seldom in Pakistan. Hence it was able to make over Rs176 billion from oil and gas last year.

Now that inflation is high and food inflation is even higher, the government should do nothing to raise prices abnormally. Instead it should step up its effort for a peaceful settlement between Iran and the US. That will be helpful to Pakistan and the Middle East in many ways. Although it can be an arduous exercise. We are living in a very uncertain world facing political threats and economic challenges. So we have to behave very prudently instead of running a large trade deficit as well as an external payments deficit.

Simultaneously, political convulsions are interfering with production and export schedules. The politicians have to think of the economy which affect the poor people instead of relegating the economy to a lower order of things.

Their public demonstrations should be more orderly and disciplined, particularly when terrorists are out to wreck the political system.

Surviving $100 a barrel -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
Adding value to export products

Over the years, the country has expanded its simple manufacturing base and raised exports. But it needs to add more value to industrial products for a rapid and sustainable growth in exports.

Exports grew just 3.4 per cent in the last fiscal year against the target of 13 per cent whereas its imports increased 6.8 per cent against the target of minus two per cent.

“If we don’t introduce value-addition at all levels our exports won’t grow fast enough and our dream of import substitution would be shattered,” says Mr Iqbal Ibrahim, Vice Chairman, All Pakistan Textile Mills Association.

The country cannot afford to miss its export growth targets year after year or continue to delay import substitution because that would weaken its external sector and make it more dependent on external debt.

In FY07, the country posted a balance of payments surplus of $3.5 billion but its stock of foreign debt and liabilities also increased by $3 billion to $40 billion.

Policy makers do agree that it is time to focus on industry-led growth strategy and value-added exports, transfer of hi-tech technology and import substitution. But not much is being done in practical terms.

The creation of the ministry of textiles is a good omen to start the process of strategic industry-led growth. But the ministry has not delivered much in terms of facilitating the textile sector to develop on sustainable grounds and to increase value-added textile exports, says textile industrialists.

According to a report of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan’s exports of textiles are concentrated in low value- added products despite a rising share of higher value added textile products in global trade. To move with the global trends, the textile industry must move up the value chain and increase the share of high value added garments and made-ups in its export portfolio.

The textiles sector remains largely cotton-based, despite an increasing trend towards synthetic and blended fabrics. Current spindle utilisation for man-made fibres is very low compared with its competitors. A major reason for this is the protected man-made fibres industry.

“The overwhelming reliance of the textile sector on cotton makes it vulnerable to adverse shocks in the cotton market,” says the PIDE report authored by Musleh ud Din and Ejaz Ghani. In order to decrease the reliance on cotton, there is a need to encourage a shift towards man-made fibres.

There is also a need to move up the value chain both within and across all the sub-processes of the textile sector. And to reward value addition, incentives provided to the textiles sector should be linked with value addition. Similarly, other incentives such as export refinance should be cascaded across the value chain within a sub-process e.g. lower refinance rate for the finer counts and other value-added yarns and higher rate for the lower counts.

After textiles, leather sector is the biggest foreign exchange earner . Lately, this sector’s exports have grown because of higher value-addition. “But still there is much scope for making our products more-value added,” says a leading exporter of leather and leather products.

Exports of tanned leather and such value-added items like footwear and leather garments have risen over the past few years. “But there is a vast array of leather products whose exports need to be boosted. These items include leather under garments, gloves, handbags, purses, key chains, wallets etc.”

In FY07, exports of tanned leather rose 3.5 per cent to $303 million. But the exports of leather manufactures fell 24 per cent to $546 million. Some exporters say that the exports of leather manufactures were over-stated in FY06 and that the decline seen in FY07 was a consequence of it.

But like many others, they too admit that not much is being done to make leather exports more value-added. “One basic reason for not-so-fast value addition in leather products is that the industry lacks the modern technology used in this business,” says Qaisar Hassan, a leather technologist.

“Hardly half a dozen tanneries out of more than two dozens I have so far worked with have the latest technology necessary for making finished value-added leather products,” he says.

Textiles and leather industries use local raw materials and can easily go for value-added production. But the scope for value addition exists even in case of other industries.

The plastic industry is one good example. Polypropylene granules are imported to meet industrial requirements. “But whereas we use it for making low value-added products like woven sacks India, China and Turkey manufacture and export an array of industrial and household goods made from polypropylene,” says Sardar Ashraf, a member of the managing committee of FPCCI.

“The Indian Reliance Company is the biggest plastic granule importer but at the same time it is also the biggest exporter of plastic bags. This is real value-addition.” A leading rice exporter pointed out that whereas Thailand has long been producing and exporting rice-based food products “we only export rice.” And flour millers say a big scope also exists for export of value-added wheat and wheat flour-based food products. “We have started exporting vermicelli to the UAE and the response is encouraging. We can explore possibilities for exporting other traditional food items made of wheat flour to the Gulf countries where a large number of non-resident Pakistanis live.”

Apart from textiles, leather, plastic and food industries there is a vast scope for value-addition in almost every industry including those with export potential. Value-addition in construction and engineering industry can earn a huge amount of foreign exchange. The light engineering sector has started investing in technology needed for value-addition in manufacture of household electronic goods. Till recently, local fans were doing a roaring business in global markets but with the emergence of cheaper Chinese fans, the situation has changed.

Businessmen point out that the issue of value-addition in exports needs to be handled through a public-private partnership programme. “Let the ministry of industries, ministry of commerce, Trade Development Authority of Pakistan and the FPCCI join hands to come up with a vision for value-addition,” suggests Sardar Ashraf.

Many frankly admit that the private sector has so far not played its due role in introducing value-addition to various industries. But they say that the country cannot afford to delay this requirement any more.

Moving up the chain of value addition in every industry is not only needed to boost exports but also to cater to the growing domestic demand for sophisticated goods.

If local companies fail to make value-added products to suit to the tastes of an emerging class of domestic buyers, influx of imported goods would continue unabated. And that would adversely impact the efforts being made to boost industrial production and employment and take its toll on the external sector.

Adding value to export products -DAWN - Business; October 22, 2007
 
.
WB gives mixed report on economic growth

WASHINGTON, Oct 21: As many as 37 per cent of the working-age population in Pakistan is 24 years old or younger, says a World Bank report released on Saturday.

The World Bank development report for 2008 also shows a total of $308 million of foreign direct investment in the country in 2000, which increased to $2.2 billion in 2005.

Long-term debt was $29.7 billion in 2000, which increased to $31 billion in 2005.

Total debt service as percentage of exports of goods, services and income was 25.2 in 2000 and 10.2 in 2005.

Official development assistance and official aid was $692.4 million in 2000, which increased to $1.7 billion in 2005.

Workers’ remittances and compensation of employees totalled $1.1 billion in 2000, $4.3 billion in 2005 and $5.4 billion in 2006.

According to World development indicators database of April 2007, Pakistan’s GDP in US dollars was $73.3 billion in 2000, which increased to $128.8 billion in 2006.

The annual GDP growth rate is shown as 4.3 per cent in 2000, 7.3 per cent in 2005 and 6.2 per cent in 2006.

The annual inflation, GDP deflator, is shown as 23.8 per cent in 2000, 8.7 per cent in 2005 and 10.3 per cent in 2006.

Agriculture is shown as 26.2 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 22.2 per cent in 2005 and 20.5 per cent in 2006.

Industry is shown as 22.6 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 26.5 per cent in 2005 and 26.7 per cent in 2006.

Services and miscellaneous are shown as 51.2 per cent of the GDP in 2002, 51.3 per cent in 2005 and 52.9 per cent in 2006.

Exports of goods and services are shown as 13.6 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 15.5 per cent in 2005 and 15.5 per cent in 2006.

Imports of goods and services are shown as 14.8 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 19.3 per cent in 2005 and 24.4 per cent in 2006.

Gross capital formation is shown as 17.4 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 18.1 per cent in 2005 and 20 per cent in 2006.

Revenue, excluding grants, is shown as 14 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 12.8 per cent in 2005 and minus 13.3 per cent in 2006.

Cash and surplus deficit is shown as minus 4.1 per cent of the GDP in 2000, minus 3.2 per cent in 2005 and minus 3.8 per cent in 2006.

It takes 24 working days to start a business in Pakistan.

Market capitalisation of listed companies is shown as 9.0 per cent of the GDP in 2000, 41.3 per cent in 2005 and 35.3 per cent in 2006.

Military expenditure is shown as 4.1 per cent of the GDP in 2000 and 3.3 per cent in 2005.

Only 24.3 per thousand people had mobile phones in 2000, which increased to 115.9 per thousand in 2005.

Only 2.2 per thousand people had access to the internet in 2000, which increased to 67.4 in 2004.The World Bank also notes that the population growth rate in Pakistan reduced from 2.4 per cent in 2000 and 2005 to 2.1 in 2006.

Infant mortality rate also reduced from 85 per thousand live births in 2000 to 79 in 2005.

Prevalence of HIV for population aged between 15 and 49 remains at 0.1 per cent.

Primary school completion rate is 63.2 per cent. Enrolment in primary schools is 87.3 per cent of the relevant age group. For secondary schools it is only 26.9 per cent and reduces to a depressing low of 4.6 per cent for high school and colleges.

Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education is 75.4 per cent. Adult literary rate for people aged between 15 and above is shown as 49.9 per cent.

Of a total surface area of 796.1 thousand square kilometres, only 21,160 square kilometres were shown as forest areas in 2000, which further reduced 19,020 square kilometres in 2005.

Agriculture land increased from 35 per cent of the total surface area in 2000 to 35.1 per cent in 2005.

As many as 89 per cent people have access to improved water sources.

In urban areas, 89 per cent of the population has access to improved sanitation facilities.

Energy use as kilogram of oil equivalent per capita remains 463.2 and electric power consumption kilowatts per capita is shown as 373.5.

Energy imports cover 26.3 per cent of total energy use.

WB gives mixed report on economic growth -DAWN - Top Stories; October 22, 2007
 
.
Industrial nations, IFIs support FATA development plan

WASHINGTON: The major economic powers and the international financial institutions (IFIs) have expressed their support for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) economic development plan.

Representatives of the industrialised nations and the global financial institutions met on the margins of the World Bank-IMF annual moot and discussed ways to complement efforts for socio-economic uplift of the mountainous tribal region of Pakistan as well as the border areas of Afghanistan. The representatives acknowledged the key importance of economic development in the region.

The Prime Minister’s Adviser on Finance and Economic Affairs Dr Salman Shah made a presentation to the representatives from the United States, European Union, Canada, Japan and Asia Pacific countries about Islamabad’s development plan with an outlay of Rs 2.06 billion, aimed at the socio-economic development in FATA.

Dr Shah said, “They were very impressed by what Pakistan has done and the institutional arrangement that we have put in place, and I think this should be a very successful plan for FATA.” Under the plan, Pakistan will spend $ 1 billion over a period of nine years (2006-15). The United States has committed to provide $ 750 million over five years, which leaves a gap of $ 250 million.”

In his presentation, Dr Shah said the government was committed to economic well being of the people in the rugged region and it was setting up infrastructure and providing economic opportunities that would help the local people integrate into the mainstream of the country.

The prime minister’s adviser also discussed the government’s approach of addressing problems like poverty, limited access to public services and extremism affecting the border region through a combination of administrative, political and security measures. However, he stressed that economic development was the most important component of government policy in the long run. Talking about the implementation mechanism for the development strategy, Dr Shah informed participants about the establishment of the FATA Civil Secretariat that would carry out projects in human development sectors - education, health, water supply, sanitation and rural development.

The FATA Development Authority, established on a public-private partnership model, will be responsible for the execution of economic development sectors - industry, mining, commerce, trade, tourism and reconstruction opportunity zones, he added. Dr Shah said that rural support programme, which would be undertaken through civil society organisations, would focus on poverty alleviation with a livelihood-cantered approach to rural progress. He appreciated the important role played by the US in mobilising resources for development of the region.

The G-8 countries are also planning to further increase their support for Pakistan’s development plan, he added.

On the occasion, US Economic and Business Affairs Assistant Secretary Dan Sullivan and Afghan Finance Minister Anwar Ahady spoke of their commitment to development of the region. app

Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan
 
.
Pakistan may lose advantage on ROZs

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

LAHORE: Economic experts cautioned on Monday that availability of duty free access in US market to textile products of Bangladesh and Cambodia would neutralize any advantage that Pakistan was expecting from production in ROZs.

While Pakistan is still waiting for a bill to be presented in the US Congress for duty-free access to the US markets for products made in the Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) and in earthquake-affected areas, a bill for duty free access to Bangladesh and Cambodia has been placed in the US Congress.

A bill was introduced last Thursday in the US House of Representatives for granting duty-free access to poorest countries on the planet, including Bangladesh and Cambodia. The text only requires 35 per cent of the total value to be originated in one or more eligible countries, falling to 25 per cent for African countries. Limits would be imposed on duty-free imports from Bangladesh and Cambodia but would be raised if core labour rights were enforced in both countries.

For Pakistan a US partner in its fight against terrorism the proposed bill for ROZs offers duty free access to only two textile value added categories produced in Pakistan while for poorer countries it is for all textiles.

Bangladesh already has an edge over Pakistan in the European market where it has market access at zero rate under GSP while Pakistani textiles are subjected to 13-19 per cent duties.

Pakistan may lose advantage on ROZs
 
.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom