Pakistan urged to get investment grade status: 6-8pc GDP for 10 years
ISLAMABAD, July 10: The international financial institutions (IFIs) have asked Pakistan to attain investment grade status by the global rating agencies to qualify for increased foreign investment.
Currently, Pakistan is three notch below the investment grade status and our policy objective for next ten year is to attain that status, said Economic Adviser to the ministry of finance Dr. Ashfaque Hasan Khan.
He told Dawn on Tuesday that the government was targeting to move to investment grade level, which will enhance the overall stature of Pakistan.
The benefit of getting that grade will reduce the cost of borrowing substantially. In other words, market will reward Pakistan handsomely if we attain investment grade status, said Dr Khan, who is also the director general of Debt Coordination Office of the ministry of finance.
Asked how to attain the investment grade status, he said Pakistan would have to maintain an average 6-8 per cent GDP growth rate in next ten years in a stable micro-economic environment.
Further more, he said, the country's debt burden will have to be reduced further to qualify for investment grade status. We have imposed on ourselves to achieve this status and if that is done the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will be very happy and could be more helpful in terms of extending their support in every respect, Mr. Khan added.
He said by attaining that grade, the cost of capital will reduce, economic and political risk would minimise and Pakistan's current B-Plus B-I rating will be enhanced by improving the economic fundamentals.
Responding to a question, he said India had achieved investment grade status by the international rating agencies like many other counties.
Asked why it would take ten years to achieve that status, Dr Khan said that this was the target set by the government. But we may achieve that target in 3-4 years and for that we will have to be very consistent and to continuously perform in terms of better growth rate, lower debt-to-GDP ratio and improving other economic indicators.In reply to a question, the economic adviser to the ministry of finance said that during the last eight years the country's debt burden had declined to one half. Public debt, which was one hundred per cent of the GDP in end July 1999, has come down to 53.4 per cent by end March 2007.
Likewise, external debt as percentage of foreign exchange earnings has declined from 347 per cent on end-June 1999 to 119 per cent by end March 2007.
But he said the debt in absolute terms would continue to rise because the size of GDP was also rising. Debt is not bad but the burden of debt is bad, he said adding that the government was maintaining a stable exchange environment because of getting the country's foreign exchange reserves increased to over $14.5 billion, which were sufficient to provide cover to more than six months of imports.
He said that Pakistan needed to invest in infrastructure development to achieve 6-8 per cent GDP growth rate. At the same time, he said the competitiveness of the industry was also needed to be improved by the private sector in next ten years.
The economic adviser also said that the new micro-economic policy framework was being prepared as various targets set during the last few years have over-performed. We were anticipating that investment rate would reach to 22.2 per cent of the GDP by 2010-11 but we have surpassed this level in 2006-07, he said.
Similarly, the government was expecting 4.5 per cent agriculture growth, which reached to 5 per cent in 2006-07. But we have under-performed in large scale manufacturing. However, we are right on the target as far as real GDP growth is concerned, he said.
Then in terms of revenue collection we have over-performed and
accordingly we have to revise upward revenue projections for the next ten years, he said adding that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) was expected to collect Rs980 billion in 2007-08 but it had set an ambitious target of Rs1.025 trillion for the next financial year. It managed more than Rs42 billion against its original target last year.
The new micro-economic framework will be consistent of our growth projection and future policy thrust, which we have set for ourselves, Dr Khan said.
Asked about the criticism being made by the government's opponents that poverty and unemployment had increased, he said that during the first half of the last fiscal employment rate had come dome from 6.2 per cent in 2005-06 to 5.3 per cent in the corresponding period of 2006-07.
He said that during the first half of the last fiscal 730,000 additional jobs were created. As a result of sustained economic recovery, unemployment has gone down substantially, he claimed.
As far poverty is concerned, it has declined by 10 percentage point and this is being recognised by the international donor agencies and other institutions.
The year 2006-07, he said, has been very good in terms of growth, balance of payment, foreign exchange reserves, debt-to-GDP ratio, job creation and investment. The last four years, he said, have brought Pakistan in the limelight in the international world.
http://www.dawn.com/2007/07/11/ebr1.htm