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Pakistan became 25% poorer under PTI: PML-N

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Pakistan became 25% poorer under PTI: PML-N
Party says country's ability to service its debt has further weakened

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The PML-N on Thursday maintained that the country had become 25% poorer because of the “flawed” economic policies of the ruling PTI and its ability to service the debt had further weakened.

At a pre-budget seminar addressed by all those who were at the helm of economic affairs from 2013 to 2018, the PML-N also opposed levying of new taxes, increase in electricity prices and recommended lowering the power tariffs for farmers.
Pakistan’s ability to service its debt has further weakened as its debt has increased to an all-time high of nearly nine times more than the tax collection,” said Miftah Ismail, PML-N’s last finance minister.

1622784078462.png

He added that during the PML-N’s time, the debt-to-tax ratio was at the lowest level of 6.5 times.
“This government has increased our debt burden more in its first three years than any government in its full term in history.”
The former finance minister claimed that in less than three years, the PTI government had added 54% to the national debt in comparison with what was added to it in 71 years.

1622784110684.png

“The PTI is adding Rs4.747 trillion debt per year and building nothing. Had the PML-N’s policies continued, the size of the national economy would have been $368 billion and the per capita income $1,775 at the end of the fiscal year 2020-21.”
Miftah said when the PML-N left in 2018, the size of the Pakistani economy was $313 billion.

“Pakistan is poorer today by 25% due to the economic policies of the PTI,” he added.
The former finance minister further claimed that after three years, Imran Khan had reduced the size of economy by $296 billion or by 5.5% even as the country's population had increased by 7.5%.
1622784141407.png

“There is a direct reduction in the income and purchasing power of Pakistanis by 13%. This is the first time in our history that our GDP in dollars has reduced even after three years.”

Miftah said despite the high demand and inflation in the past three years, the PTI’s tax collection has remained stagnant and has decreased in terms of percentage of GDP.
“The PTI has tripled inflation, increased food inflation more than five times than what it was during PML-N’s tenure, and substantially reduced economic growth,” Miftah claimed.
1622784187506.png

“After three years, even if we believe PTI’s controversial numbers, they have reduced real rupee GDP on a per capita basis.”
The tax-to GDP, which was 13% of the GDP when the PML-N government left with revenues doubling during its tenure, has now fallen to 10.9%. The taxation structure has also become more regressive as indicated by a higher share of indirect taxes.
“The fiscal deficits in the years under Imran Khan have been the highest ever in Pakistan’s history -- 9.1% and 8.1% -- and this year we will again unfortunately incur a budget deficit of over 8% of GDP,” Miftah said.
1622784240254.png

PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif claimed that the PTI government was misleading the public since the start of its tenure.

1622784326864.png

“Even the State Bank has contested the PTI’s growth rate of 3.9%,” the former Punjab chief minister added.
“The government's statistics have already become a subject of debate. This 'figure fudging' has come on top of the government's dismal performance and major failures.”
1622784280377.png

Dr Ayesha Pasha, former finance minister of Punjab, said the PTI government had claimed improvement in the economy and the sales of automobiles and motorcycles but the fact of the matter was that these indicators were still lower than what the PML-N had left behind.

“Tractors sales are down by 30.3% down, cars by 35% and motorcycles by 10% in fiscal year 2021 compared with 2018,” she added.

Former planning minister Ahsan Iqbal claimed that the country’s perception was damaged because of statements of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

“Foreign investors have stopped making investments. Pakistan’s core problem is political instability,” he added.
“The opportunity to attract Chinese investment in special economic zones has been lost.”
Former commerce minister Khurram Dastgir blamed the "mismanagement" of the PTI government for the increasing unemployment and poverty in the country.

“The cost of one kilogramme of sugar, one kilogramme of cooking oil, one kilogramme of moong pulse and one kilogramme of wheat flour was Rs347 in May 2018 that has now increased to Rs680 -- an increase of 96%,” he said.
“In three years, 20 million more people have slipped below poverty.”

Today the number of unemployed is around 8.5 million and the rate of unemployment is around 15%, which is the highest in the country's history, according to the PML-N paper.

Real wages for unskilled workers have fallen by 18% over the last three years. Federal and provincial public development spending in relation to GDP has also almost halved to 2.5% of the GDP only, further contributing to job contraction.

The main reasons for this incredible increase in prices, especially of food items, are the constant and large increases in the price of power and gas, the printing of money, and the largest budget deficits in Pakistan’s history, according to the PML-N.

PML-N Assistant General Secretary Bilal Kayani said the PTI had promised to end any addition to the power sector circular debt. "But despite raising power tariffs on an average of by over 60%, the circular debt today is both the highest in history and also rising at the fastest pace in history," he added.

He further noted that the circular debt would exceed Rs2.8 trillion, which is an increase of about 1.7 trillion in three years or almost Rs50 billion per month.

Miftah warned that after 40% devaluation, there would be only 1% increase in exports against what they were in the tenure of the PML-N -- that too in its third year.

Dr Ayesha Pasha said the government had not been able to finalise a deal with the IMF.

“A budget presented without the IMF agreement would lose its sanctity, increasing the chances of a mini-budget,” she added.
Former Privatisation Commission chairman Muhammad Zubair pointed out that the change of four finance ministers, five finance secretaries, five FBR chairmen, four chairmen of the Board of Investment, four economic affairs ministers and four industries ministers suggest that the prime minister was unsatisfied with the performance of his economic team.

 
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Thats like saying hey look I have 9 inch gun but what is the point if fails when you need it? if even a 5 inch can fire shots and hit the bullseye every time then we have a winner.
 
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Pakistan became 25% poorer under PTI: PML-N
Party says country's ability to service its debt has further weakened

View attachment 750438

The PML-N on Thursday maintained that the country had become 25% poorer because of the “flawed” economic policies of the ruling PTI and its ability to service the debt had further weakened.

At a pre-budget seminar addressed by all those who were at the helm of economic affairs from 2013 to 2018, the PML-N also opposed levying of new taxes, increase in electricity prices and recommended lowering the power tariffs for farmers.
Pakistan’s ability to service its debt has further weakened as its debt has increased to an all-time high of nearly nine times more than the tax collection,” said Miftah Ismail, PML-N’s last finance minister.

View attachment 750439
He added that during the PML-N’s time, the debt-to-tax ratio was at the lowest level of 6.5 times.
“This government has increased our debt burden more in its first three years than any government in its full term in history.”
The former finance minister claimed that in less than three years, the PTI government had added 54% to the national debt in comparison with what was added to it in 71 years.

View attachment 750440
“The PTI is adding Rs4.747 trillion debt per year and building nothing. Had the PML-N’s policies continued, the size of the national economy would have been $368 billion and the per capita income $1,775 at the end of the fiscal year 2020-21.”
Miftah said when the PML-N left in 2018, the size of the Pakistani economy was $313 billion.

“Pakistan is poorer today by 25% due to the economic policies of the PTI,” he added.
The former finance minister further claimed that after three years, Imran Khan had reduced the size of economy by $296 billion or by 5.5% even as the country's population had increased by 7.5%.
View attachment 750441
“There is a direct reduction in the income and purchasing power of Pakistanis by 13%. This is the first time in our history that our GDP in dollars has reduced even after three years.”

Miftah said despite the high demand and inflation in the past three years, the PTI’s tax collection has remained stagnant and has decreased in terms of percentage of GDP.
“The PTI has tripled inflation, increased food inflation more than five times than what it was during PML-N’s tenure, and substantially reduced economic growth,” Miftah claimed.
View attachment 750442
“After three years, even if we believe PTI’s controversial numbers, they have reduced real rupee GDP on a per capita basis.”
The tax-to GDP, which was 13% of the GDP when the PML-N government left with revenues doubling during its tenure, has now fallen to 10.9%. The taxation structure has also become more regressive as indicated by a higher share of indirect taxes.
“The fiscal deficits in the years under Imran Khan have been the highest ever in Pakistan’s history -- 9.1% and 8.1% -- and this year we will again unfortunately incur a budget deficit of over 8% of GDP,” Miftah said.
View attachment 750443
PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif claimed that the PTI government was misleading the public since the start of its tenure.

View attachment 750447
“Even the State Bank has contested the PTI’s growth rate of 3.9%,” the former Punjab chief minister added.
“The government's statistics have already become a subject of debate. This 'figure fudging' has come on top of the government's dismal performance and major failures.”
View attachment 750445
Dr Ayesha Pasha, former finance minister of Punjab, said the PTI government had claimed improvement in the economy and the sales of automobiles and motorcycles but the fact of the matter was that these indicators were still lower than what the PML-N had left behind.

“Tractors sales are down by 30.3% down, cars by 35% and motorcycles by 10% in fiscal year 2021 compared with 2018,” she added.

Former planning minister Ahsan Iqbal claimed that the country’s perception was damaged because of statements of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

“Foreign investors have stopped making investments. Pakistan’s core problem is political instability,” he added.
“The opportunity to attract Chinese investment in special economic zones has been lost.”
Former commerce minister Khurram Dastgir blamed the "mismanagement" of the PTI government for the increasing unemployment and poverty in the country.

“The cost of one kilogramme of sugar, one kilogramme of cooking oil, one kilogramme of moong pulse and one kilogramme of wheat flour was Rs347 in May 2018 that has now increased to Rs680 -- an increase of 96%,” he said.
“In three years, 20 million more people have slipped below poverty.”

Today the number of unemployed is around 8.5 million and the rate of unemployment is around 15%, which is the highest in the country's history, according to the PML-N paper.

Real wages for unskilled workers have fallen by 18% over the last three years. Federal and provincial public development spending in relation to GDP has also almost halved to 2.5% of the GDP only, further contributing to job contraction.

The main reasons for this incredible increase in prices, especially of food items, are the constant and large increases in the price of power and gas, the printing of money, and the largest budget deficits in Pakistan’s history, according to the PML-N.

PML-N Assistant General Secretary Bilal Kayani said the PTI had promised to end any addition to the power sector circular debt. "But despite raising power tariffs on an average of by over 60%, the circular debt today is both the highest in history and also rising at the fastest pace in history," he added.

He further noted that the circular debt would exceed Rs2.8 trillion, which is an increase of about 1.7 trillion in three years or almost Rs50 billion per month.

Miftah warned that after 40% devaluation, there would be only 1% increase in exports against what they were in the tenure of the PML-N -- that too in its third year.

Dr Ayesha Pasha said the government had not been able to finalise a deal with the IMF.

“A budget presented without the IMF agreement would lose its sanctity, increasing the chances of a mini-budget,” she added.
Former Privatisation Commission chairman Muhammad Zubair pointed out that the change of four finance ministers, five finance secretaries, five FBR chairmen, four chairmen of the Board of Investment, four economic affairs ministers and four industries ministers suggest that the prime minister was unsatisfied with the performance of his economic team.

Why not say 50%
If we are going to invent numbers we should make it more fleshy

Any idiot knows that real gdp never contracted in last 2 years

If we are going to play the nominal gdp numbers and currency manipulation numbers then comparing even 129(day PTI took Over) with 151 (current exchnage rate) will give you higher gdp today

So lets stick with 50%
Thats like saying hey look I have 9 inch gun but what is the point if fails when you need it? if even a 5 inch can fire shots and hit the bullseye every time then we have a winner.
No its like saying o have 20 inch **ck. Obviously thats impossible..if you ask how? They show you a photoshop image

Making up stuff out of thin air is easy..

We are beyond taking things out of context..now its just plain lying with straight face

Pardon my language
Everyone knows that GDP grew by 4.5% this yr and GNP by almost 7%..GNP is relevant for pakistan since remittences out pace exports in pakistan..
(GNP=GDP if we count remittences as exports)

If we add 8-10% inflation this goes up to 15% expansion in real terms..

This means a massive debt drop is coming along with GDP (nominal/even in $$$) expansion to levels higher then august 2018.
 
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A few questions, just as a layman, without any bias or anything:

1. How was the PMLN keeping the value of Rupee high?
2. What is the effect of higher imports than exports on our foreign exchange reserves?
3. What effect on the rupee does these imports and their payments have?
4. How does that effect on the Rupee affect inflation, cost of raw materials (even for exports etc.), and on payments that have to be made to IPPs?
5. What can the govt do to finance the said import bill (from where do we get the dollars to pay for imports)?
6. Under what conditions did IPPs invest in Pakistan (rate of return, interest etc.)?
7. How will we re-pay those loans, interests and rate of returns?
8. How PMLN would have dealt with Covid?
9. Is there any way to control the spread of Covid other than lockdowns?
10. What effect does the said lockdown have on the economy?
11. PMLN achieved good growth in its tenure, which sector led the growth? was there any increase in exports or export based industries?

Sincere questions, hope you will take out the time to provide well researched answers, without trolling. Thanks in advance.
 
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Why not say 50%
If we are going to invent numbers we should make it more fleshy

Any idiot knows that real gdp never contracted in last 2 years

If we are going to play the nominal gdp numbers and currency manipulation numbers then comparing even 129(day PTI took Over) with 151 (current exchnage rate) will give you higher gdp today

So lets stick with 50%

No its like saying o have 20 inch **ck. Obviously thats impossible..if you ask how? They show you a photoshop image

Making up stuff out of thin air is easy..

We are beyond taking things out of context..now its just plain lying with straight face

Pardon my language
Everyone knows that GDP grew by 4.5% this yr and GNP by almost 7%..GNP is relevant for pakistan since remittences out pace exports in pakistan..
(GNP=GDP if we count remittences as exports)

If we add 8-10% inflation this goes up to 15% expansion in real terms..

This means a massive debt drop is coming along with GDP (nominal/even in $$$) expansion to levels higher then august 2018.

So add the remittances during PMLN too, GNP will increase by another 2%.
 
. . . .
Coronavirus pandemic hurt certain sectors harder the others. Tourism, wedding industry and other service sectors suffered. Poverty would have increased but pmln acting like they would do better, is misleading.
 
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The whole article is just a mental masturbation, the same old rhetoric on a new piece of paper.

I would have broken down each component but I relized everything has been discussed to death from an economic perspective abd taken to shredder, I was hoping they would raise some new points so we would start a new debate but there is nothing apart from intellectual dishonesty, selection bias.

Its just the political rhetoric, sadly for them this time around the actual stake holders they are trying to convince already have enough information and better understanding of economy.
 
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A few questions, just as a layman, without any bias or anything:

1. How was the PMLN keeping the value of Rupee high?
2. What is the effect of higher imports than exports on our foreign exchange reserves?
3. What effect on the rupee does these imports and their payments have?
4. How does that effect on the Rupee affect inflation, cost of raw materials (even for exports etc.), and on payments that have to be made to IPPs?
5. What can the govt do to finance the said import bill (from where do we get the dollars to pay for imports)?
6. Under what conditions did IPPs invest in Pakistan (rate of return, interest etc.)?
7. How will we re-pay those loans, interests and rate of returns?
8. How PMLN would have dealt with Covid?
9. Is there any way to control the spread of Covid other than lockdowns?
10. What effect does the said lockdown have on the economy?
11. PMLN achieved good growth in its tenure, which sector led the growth? was there any increase in exports or export based industries?

Sincere questions, hope you will take out the time to provide well researched answers, without trolling. Thanks in advance.

1. How was the PMLN keeping the value of Rupee high?

PTI was criticising the PMLN government for keeping the dollar rate high when it was in the opposition but it is criticising the PMLN government for keeping the PKR rate high when it is in the government!! How they maintain the double standards.


جب ڈالر ایک روپیہ بڑھتا ہے تو ......... : عمران خان

2. What is the effect of higher imports than exports on our foreign exchange reserves?

PMLN was doing mass infrastructure overhaul so machinery imports were natural , PTI is importing more food items due to primarily sheer mismanagement and incompetence.

3. What effect on the rupee does these imports and their payments have?

Country was more competitive in term of energy requirements road infrastructure and peaceful environment.

4. How does that effect on the Rupee affect inflation, cost of raw materials (even for exports etc.), and on payments that have to be made to IPPs?

PMLN was paying less capacity charges because country was producing less electricity, as LESS as we have to do 18 hours of load-shedding. Now we are producing more electricity so we have to pay more capacity charges, but PMLN diversified the energy output methods from hydro, FO to deisle they shifted the energy mix towards hydro, coal, nuclear, LNG, wind, solar etc. The major beneficiary of capacity payments was government itself as most power plants were setup by government itself during PMLN last tenure. HUBCo and KAPCo were also government owned plants which were later privatised during Mushhraf rule.



5. What can the govt do to finance the said import bill (from where do we get the dollars to pay for imports)?

Most imports were under CPEC projects which were financed by Chinese banks so the import bill was to not to be paid in the same year and as most CPEC projects were completed so it was natural that imports bill will be far less than that it was in the FY18.

6. Under what conditions did IPPs invest in Pakistan (rate of return, interest etc.)?

There were two policies for IPPs, one is 1994 policy and other is 2002 policy which was later amended in 2005.here are screen shots for tariff policy in both policies.

1994 Policy

1622789774318.png


2002 policy
1622789829283.png


1622790339371.png


1622790403609.png



7. How will we re-pay those loans, interests and rate of returns?

PMLN obtained loans on low interest rates at 6% but PTI government ballooned it till 13%. If they would have maintained the same policy rate left by PMLN Pakistan would easily pay the loan by its own resources with little help of foreign loans. What PTI did they plugged the imports even the raw material were also stopped and industry was in shock so it could not collect as much revenue as was collected by PMLN in its last year in next two years.

8. How PMLN would have dealt with Covid?

PTI benefited by COVID, economy was collapsed even before arrival of COVID. COVID provided a face saving to PTI and PTI managed to reschedule loans and obtained new loans in the name of COVID (Rs.1200 billion from IMF which was reportedly not spent on COVID).


9. Is there any way to control the spread of Covid other than lockdowns?

Yes, vaccination. Pakistan is far behind the regional countries in terms of ratio of population vaccinated.

10. What effect does the said lockdown have on the economy?

Pakistan had partial lockdown for just two weeks, how much would have affected that lock-down.

11. PMLN achieved good growth in its tenure, which sector led the growth? was there any increase in exports or export based industries?

Local consumption was increased, every sector be it Cement, Fertiliser, Sugar, textile, auto, oil and gas, energy generation means every sector started doubling its capacity, LSM, services and agri sector led the growth, energy and security crises was over and country was in a takeoff mode all was to be done was to maintain the momentum.

Sincere questions, hope you will take out the time to provide well researched answers, without trolling. Thanks in advance.
 
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A few questions, just as a layman, without any bias or anything:

1. How was the PMLN keeping the value of Rupee high?
2. What is the effect of higher imports than exports on our foreign exchange reserves?
3. What effect on the rupee does these imports and their payments have?
4. How does that effect on the Rupee affect inflation, cost of raw materials (even for exports etc.), and on payments that have to be made to IPPs?
5. What can the govt do to finance the said import bill (from where do we get the dollars to pay for imports)?
6. Under what conditions did IPPs invest in Pakistan (rate of return, interest etc.)?
7. How will we re-pay those loans, interests and rate of returns?
8. How PMLN would have dealt with Covid?
9. Is there any way to control the spread of Covid other than lockdowns?
10. What effect does the said lockdown have on the economy?
11. PMLN achieved good growth in its tenure, which sector led the growth? was there any increase in exports or export based industries?

Sincere questions, hope you will take out the time to provide well researched answers, without trolling. Thanks in advance.

1. They established a fixed rate regime. Effectively Central Bank keeps selling $ and buying rupees to keep the value of rupee higher. That explains the reserve depletion to an extent.

2. Reserves fall.

3. In simple terms, imports would cause a devaluation of the rupee if exports and remittances don't match them.

4. Should the rupee fall, it would cause inflation to the extent your imports drive your consumption basket. Payment to IPPs in rupee terms also go up.

5. You use forex receipts from exports and remittances. If they aren't enough you use your reserves or borrow $.

6. Most have been quasi-guaranteed around 15% USD IRR AFAIK.

7. Using reserves and hoping that we generate current account surpluses. Though majority of repayment will have to come from refinancing existing loans or new borrowings. That is quite normal.

8. PMLN's economic policies couldn't have continued for another year and they knew it. They'd have to devalue and take even more drastic actions due to lack of soft funding from allies. COVID response from an economic perspective I am guessing wouldn't have been much different....they would have resorted to money printing and deficits to ride the storm.

9. Vaccinations

10. Lockdowns cause a reduction in economic activity and hence a reduction in GDP growth

11. Exports certainly didn't increase but declined during their tenure. They achieved consumption led growth. You can look up the sectors, but I'm guessing they were mainly real estate / housing and financial services.
 
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PTI did well on many economic fronts.

One can argue about PMLN 5-year performance but in addition to data manipulation, what PMLN leaders did is to remove indicators from 20-2021 showing good performace and added those indicators where it suited their hypocrisy.

Intellectual dishonesty ki hadd hoti ha jahilo, tum choro ko phir kbhi ni anay dena power main.
 
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I don't care the economy takes a hike or not as long as the country is heading in the right direction.
 
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