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in an ideal situation....PAF would like to maintain 20-22 Combat Squadron comprising....

Modern;
77.....F-16A/B/C/D.....multi-role
32.....J-10B/FC-20.....multi-role
150...JFT.................multi-role

Secondary;
40.....Mirage-ROSE....Strike
60.....F-7PG.............ADA

this leaves a 'gap' of a minimum of 37 to a maximum of 73 aircraft. to close this gap, the choice at this time is from buying further F-16s or J-10Bs or JFT's. these are the 'affordable' platfroms for the PAF.
All 3 avenues have their pros and cons. My own feeling is to go for 18 more C/Ds and try and get 36 bl40 f16 for mLU. I would ditch the J10 and go for 2squadrons of J31 in 200-25. This along with more JFTs might be the more economical way to do tbings. The real queation is whether Uncle Sam will tango with us or not.
Araz
 
What an incredible bind - the best option is to go to the US for those damned F16, but with the US you get ZERO strategic autonomy and the constant threat of them either cutting off our supplies or slowing them down and with each day you fall more and more in to their hands - more slow death.

This is an excellent opportunity to rebuild, to decide that we will never again place our security in the hands of Western powers, and to make a genuine comprehensive strategic pact with China.
 
All 3 avenues have their pros and cons. My own feeling is to go for 18 more C/Ds and try and get 36 bl40 f16 for mLU. I would ditch the J10 and go for 2squadrons of J31 in 200-25. This along with more JFTs might be the more economical way to do tbings. The real queation is whether Uncle Sam will tango with us or not.
Araz

Ditching J10 for more JFTs and J31 in the long run would be one thing, but why would you add more F16s, which are more expensive than the J10s and operationally less capeble for PAF too?
 
Ditching J10 for more JFTs and J31 in the long run would be one thing, but why would you add more F16s, which are more expensive than the J10s and operationally less capeble for PAF too?

already familiar platform
 
Ditching J10 for more JFTs and J31 in the long run would be one thing, but why would you add more F16s, which are more expensive than the J10s and operationally less capeble for PAF too?

A familiar platform, cheap and most importantly armed with the latest US Weapons. You have pilots in the PAF who are masters of the F16's with thousands of hours clicked in.
 
already familiar platform

True, but that's it! No operational advantage, technically far inferior and less numbers can be procured compared to the J10, so can you justify it simply on familiarity?

A familiar platform, cheap and most importantly armed with the latest US Weapons. You have pilots in the PAF who are masters of the F16's with thousands of hours clicked in.

Please compare the Block 52 costs and capabilities (weapons, sensors...), compared to what a J10B offers and you will see that it's by far not a top notch fighter in current standards and not worth the costs instead of J10B, acutally not even compared to a possible JF 17 Block 3.
 
True, but that's it! No operational advantage, technically far inferior and less numbers can be procured compared to the J10, so can you justify it simply on familiarity?



Please compare the Block 52 costs and capabilities (weapons, sensors...), compared to what a J10B offers and you will see that it's by far not a top notch fighter in current standards and not worth the costs instead of J10B, acutally not even compared to a possible JF 17 Block 3.

PAF will not be buying brand new Block 52's. They will try to acquire F16's from the EDA stocks and put them through MLU's. Far more cheaper, more bang for the buck and most importantly equipped with JHMCS cued up with AIM9's and AIM120's. J10B's are completely not off the table yet but one thing is for sure, PAF cannot afford the J10B's out of her own pocket. Either the Army will need to step in, or the Chinese might make us an offer we cannot refuse. I would bet on the latter, because after all its much more cheaper to subsidize Pakistan to keep India preoccupied instead of facing the Indians head on.
 
Grande Strategy
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The PAF Mirage ROSE Upgrade
06/22/2013
The Pakistani ROSE (Retrofit of Strike Element) Mirage
III/V remain a major asset until the JF-17 replaces them.
The Mirages have been a blessing for Pakistan, in a time
when it had very few options open. Pakistani Mirages
have served a wide range of roles, from nuclear delivery
to recon.
They have been the only fighters to support the PN with
an anti-surface capability with the Exocet. In exercises,
they have been the only fighters to defeat the vaunted
F-16s in the PAF. PAF Mirages have served a wide range
of other roles including air defence, with BVR R-Darter
missiles to deep strike with the Mirage Vs. Most
importantly, Mirages gave Pakistan the confidence to
pursue, and opportunity to build, an extensive foray into
combat aircraft manufacturing capability, that finally
culminated in the JF-17.
It is also widely believed that the ROSE Mirages will
continue to serve, along with the JF-17s post 2015. We
here look back in time to consider the Mirage and its
upgrade with the PAF.
The ROSE project was conceived in 1992 and begun on
April 1995. PAF's main concern was to replace the A-5s
that were deemed to retire in 1997. The aim was to raise
two squadrons that were capable of a surface attack
role, building a strike and precision strike capability.
PAF went on a shopping trip to thus buy and rebuild
secondhand Mirages and sources included Belgium,
Spain, France, Lebanon and Zaire. The operational
requirement was for fifty aircraft and forty aircraft were
allocated funds of $120 million. PAF personnel visited
Spain, France and Lebanon, among other countries and
inspected 96 Mirages.
SAGEM, a French company which specializes in avionics
and defense electronics, was to provide some of the
equipment for upgrading the Mirages with their inertial
navigation and system integration departments.
However, SAGEM was looking for making more and
proposed an additional forty Mirages for $150 million.
This opportunity came as a result of PAF's enthusiasm
for forty Mirage Vs and about forty Mirage IIIs of the
French Air Force, which were available for sale at quite a
reasonable price. The French Mirage V suited the PAF
requirement because of its longer range and greater
payload. PAF negotiated and the price came down
eventually to $124 million and finally to $118 million by
contract signing.
The package included thirty-four Mirage Vs and six
dual-seat Mirage IIIs, making a total of forty fully
overhauled aircraft. Out of the forty aircraft, twenty
Mirage Vs would be modernized to the ROSE-II
standards. These Mirage V ROSE-II were to receive an
identical upgrade to ROSE-I, with the difference being
that the Grifo-M radar is replaced by FLIR. The Grifo M,
somewhat of a copy of the US APG-68, provided the
Mirages with a significant improvement in look-down-
shoot down capability, and more controversially, the
ability to carry BVR missiles.
The details of the package included engines installed on
the aircraft would have a minimum life of four years and
300 hours and inclusion of ground support, alternate
mission equipment, and line replaceable units.
Additionally, kits were to be provided for RWR, CFD and
GPS.
The modifications were done in France since PAC Kamra
was during that time frame, already busy overhauling
the PAF's existing Mirages. Accepting any additional
work would have unnecessarily delayed the delivery of
the French Mirages to the PAF. However, SAGEM
encountered problems on purchase of spares, which
they needed for the timely and efficient running of their
upgrade program and the company managed to get the
first batch ready only by September 1998. A second
batch of eight was received in 1999 while the third batch
of eight came to Pakistan on 22 June 2000 and
deliveries were completed by end of 2000.
PAC Kamra, which had extensive experience in
overhauling Mirages, F-6s and F-7s, was tasked with the
work of overhauling and upgrading Mirages acquired
from Australia to the ROSE upgrade standard. Pakistan
had bought 50 Mirage IIIOs from Australia at a mere cost
of $36 million. Most of these aircraft had less than 4000
flying hours on them and they were in excellent
condition.
PAC recovered forty-five aircraft and this included seven
dual-seat models that were allotted to No. 5 Squadron.
Of the remaining, there were thirty-two with ROSE
configuration, one aircraft crashed, and another five
were considered beyond recovery.
The avionics package included Inertial Navigation
System, Heads Up Display, Airborne Video Tape
Recording System, and self-protection systems like
RWR, Chaff and Flares, essentially the same as the
SAGEM upgrades. When the United States released 360
AIM-9L missiles under the Brown Amendment, the
Mirages being upgraded and equipped with the Grifo-M
radar were also made capable of carrying the AIM-9L
missiles.
Additional equipment include, for instance, IRCCD
Forward Looking Infra Red navigation sensor for
reconnaissance applications - laser rangefinder - air
data sensors and computer - radar altimeter, and high
capacity data transfer unit . In the French upgrade, GEC
head-up display and HOTAS similar to Mirage-2000 is
used.
Pakistan also acquired South African MUPSOW, a multi-
purpose, surgical-strike weapon, designed to neutralize
enemy targets such as airfields, bunkers and command-
and-control centres at standoff ranges. Pinpoint
accuracy is achieved by using an advanced navigation
and terminal guidance technology. PAF also testing
South African Raptor I and II precision guided
munitions. PAF also uses the DART pod, which looks
identical to Rafael's LITENING pod and potentially is
acquired through South Africa. PAF is also believed to
use the R-Darter as its BVR missile for her Mirages.
Other Mirage 5F upgrades included an integrated
electronic warfare suite, on-board oxygen generation
system (OBOGS), and single point pressure refueling.
The final ROSE-III upgrade came for 14 more Mirage 5EF
by SAGEM and included new Radar Warning Receiver
(RWR);new Head-Up-Display (HUD); Forward Looking
Infra-Red (FLIR) and new mission computer (Dynamics).
 
Agreed, but those thousands of clicked in hours will not be of any use if planes can not fly due to spare parts shortage. Journey towards independence is very hard and very long, but the reward is even greater.

A familiar platform, cheap and most importantly armed with the latest US Weapons. You have pilots in the PAF who are masters of the F16's with thousands of hours clicked in.
 
Sancho
Familiarity and presence of infrastructure plus available trained manpower.
 
True, but that's it! No operational advantage, technically far inferior and less numbers can be procured compared to the J10, so can you justify it simply on familiarity?



Please compare the Block 52 costs and capabilities (weapons, sensors...), compared to what a J10B offers and you will see that it's by far not a top notch fighter in current standards and not worth the costs instead of J10B, acutally not even compared to a possible JF 17 Block 3.
As to the first paragraph a familiar and established platform which with MLU would be well equipped coming with funds from the US. We have eztablished repair and maintenance facilities and trained manpower to operate and repair the platform so induction would be quicker. That in its own rights is a huge advantage. There will be some security in numbers for a short period in case of sanctions. plus we would have enough stores. This factor alone would make me go down that route.
J10Bis still new with teething problems and the pithyengine issue is haunting it. The risk factor in going with AL31Feven if it gets sold to us would be problematic Then thwre would be latency as PAF familiarises itself with the platform and trains enough manpower and devices tschniques to suit the platform. This would be a headache as PAF is already grappling with JFT and training manpower with it.All in all a few very compelling reasons to go down the route I am suggesting.
Araz
 
Argentine officials confirm
joint-production talks over
China's FC-1 fighter

Richard D Fisher Jr, Paris - IHS Jane's Defence
Industry
23 June 2013

Officials from Argentine aerospace company
Fabrica Argentina de Aviones (FAdeA) told IHS
Jane's at the 2013 Paris Air Show they have
had multiple discussions with Chinese officials
over potential co-production of the Chengdu
Aircraft Corporation (CAC) FC-1/JF-17 multirole
combat aircraft.
Discussions are far from concluded, with
FAdeA officials saying "technology transfer"
issues remain a sticking point. Nonetheless, the
discussions are the first formal effort that
could lead to the co-production of a modern
Chinese fighter in Latin America. FAdeA
officials said the co-produced FC-1 could be
called the 'Pulqui-III', recalling FAdeA's Pulqui-
II, Latin America's first swept wing jet fighter,
which was designed by Germany's Kurt Tank
for the government of Juan Peron.
 
PAF will not be buying brand new Block 52's. They will try to acquire F16's from the EDA stocks and put them through MLU's. Far more cheaper, more bang for the buck and most importantly equipped with JHMCS cued up with AIM9's and AIM120's.

How so? Add the procuement costs to the MLU upgrade cost and compare it to the around $50 millions the NEW J10Bs (with AESA, IRST, better EW sensors, IFR capability and the better weapon package) reportedly costs. No way that the F16s offer more bang for the bucks. And when even China struggles to provide you the loans for the J10s, don't you think it will be even more difficult to get it from western countries?

As to the first paragraph a familiar and established platform which with MLU would be well equipped coming with funds from the US. We have eztablished repair and maintenance facilities and trained manpower to operate and repair the platform so induction would be quicker. That in its own rights is a huge advantage. There will be some security in numbers for a short period in case of sanctions. plus we would have enough stores. This factor alone would make me go down that route.
J10Bis still new with teething problems and the pithyengine issue is haunting it. The risk factor in going with AL31Feven if it gets sold to us would be problematic Then thwre would be latency as PAF familiarises itself with the platform and trains enough manpower and devices tschniques to suit the platform. This would be a headache as PAF is already grappling with JFT and training manpower with it.All in all a few very compelling reasons to go down the route I am suggesting.
Araz

Let me give you an extreem example to show the difference. PAF is more familiar with the J7 than with the newer JFT, but that doesn't mean they should get more J7s right? The point is, there is a crucial technological difference between the J7 and JF17, just like between an F16 MLU and a J10B. In operational terms adding more F16s only because of familiarity reasons hardly makes any sense, when you can add JF 17 B2s or even the J10B instead. And the risk of going with AL31s, can't be higher than going with RD93s or?
Also what about the familiarity and commonality between J10 and JF17, be it the full weapon package, be it avionics, or comparable radar and EW techs?

The F16 PAF can gets is simply way too limited and basically outdated with modern 4.5th gen fighters and capabilities available through China. The question should rather be, which one of them makes more sense for PAF J10B, or JF 17B3?
 
How so? Add the procuement costs to the MLU upgrade cost and compare it to the around $50 millions the NEW J10Bs (with AESA, IRST, better EW sensors, IFR capability and the better weapon package) reportedly costs. No way that the F16s offer more bang for the bucks. And when even China struggles to provide you the loans for the J10s, don't you think it will be even more difficult to get it from western countries?

The total cost for MLU program with training and technical assistance was $1.3 billion, thats roughly $30 million per plane. PAF's infrastructure can support around 100 F16's while PAF will have to setup new infrastructure to support the J10's. A portion of the funding for the F16 MLU Program was provided by FMS, which is most likely going to be utilized again if the PAF decides to acquire EDA F16 articles. So as you can see, the US subsidized a portion of the MLU program which is most likely going to happen again and the airframe is acquired absolutely free of cost. PAF has not completely written off the J10B program, it is still in the pipeline but the hiccup appears to be the funding and power plant. The F16's will only be acquired to cover a stop gap, until a new platform is acquired and Non ROSE Mirages can be retired.

But i can assure you, no decision is taken without conducting feasibility studies. They will be performed and the most logical course of action will be taken after these studies.
 
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