Pakistan Air Force needs to replace 190 planes by 2020

[KN-1]

We need Su-35, J-11 as replacement of mirage, rest J-7 can be replace by JFT...

 

[Paksanity]

Smartly played by PAF...lol

In case you guys didn't notice, statement is aimed at US, practically asking "so are you guys ready to give up relations with PAF? If so we are moving on". Basically testing waters. Let's see how it plays out. They have put ball in US court. I think reason for unusually small order of 8 jets was same. To test mood in capital hill. If they wanted 18 jets, why break it in two deals in immediate succession?!

 

[Tank131]

PAF currently has:
76 F-16 (8 more on order given new deal, with possibility for potentially 10 more)--->Spares are said to have been acquired to keep the fleet running a minimum of 5 years without cannibalization.
70 JF-17
60 F-7PG (expected to serve into 2025)
125 F-7P
33 ROSE I Mirage 3
42 Mirage III (non-upgraded)
20 ROSE II Mirage V
14 ROSE III Mirage V
51 Mirage V (non-upgraded)

Realistically speaking, today PAF has only 146 Frontline Fighters. The JF-17 is being added to at ~16/yr and for now there are plans for 18 more F-16 (Total=94 with rumored plans of acquiring older models from international sources up to 110- 120).

Lets just deal with the 94 F-16s for now. We know that the eventual line (at least through block 3) will be 150 JF-17 (which at the current rate would require 5 more years to achieve at 16/yr). That gives PAF 244 front line fighters. Let us assume that as per plan the F-7PG are to serve until 2025 and the ROSE Mirages can also be lumped into that though 2010 was the supposed retirement timeline (meaning these may be airframes that are part of the 190). That adds 127 Fighters bringing the total number to 371 which is right smack in the middle of the number the article states the PAF wants (350-400 fighters), so while 190 jets need to be replaced (I think the ROSE Mirages will go before the PG given that the PGs are newer airframes), there are a total 218 fighters that need to be phased out (non-upgraded Mirages and F-7P) and this will not likely be done on a 1:1 basis. 80 will be overtaken in next 5 years by JF-17. Lets add the 67 ROSE Mirages in which do need to be ~1:1 to maintain battle efficacy so you are looking at the need to fill a total of 147 airframes (80 for sure with JF-17 and 67 unaccounted for). You want to throw the PGs in there and that will slightly overtake the 190 number (but really the PGs are point defense fighters and would not need 1:1 replacement. The Critical number is 67 which are currently unaccounted for ROSE Mirage Replacements.

That makes looking at this much more manageable. There are a number of ways to fill that number including the dreaded prospect of more F-16.
F-16: As @Quwa has stated in the past, older model F-16 A/B ADF/OCU which can use AMRAAM. Potential Sources for more F-16s:Venezuala has 21 F-16 that it is unable to operate. If these are acquired it would give PAF 117 F-16s (all AMRAAM capable). Jordan may sell off more older model F-16 but the ideal solution would be the Venezualan F-16s

Su-35:Is a possibility depending on talks with Russia. Provided the PAF has the $$, these are potential fighters which would be very beneficial for the PAF and would be the most advanced fighters in Asia in active service (along with Russian and Chinese Su-35). Up to 40 of these would be beneficial and potentially doable.

JH-7B: Would be needing electronic modifications with AESA radar (hopefully from J-16) and IRST but would be a low cost alternative to Su-35 and would be an Ideal strike fighter to supplement both PAF and PN needs

Typhoon: A costly but politically doable option. The funding would be astronomical and likley prohibitive but if a deal for 40 air frames were able to be worked from a financial standpoint, this would be the best solution.

Rafale: Given IAF is purchasing these, they seem unlikley, BUT if the IAF deal falls through (unlikely) then they are again a possibility, but the same issues as with Typhoon.

J-10C: Would be a potential solution given the issues of sanction happy US congress, coupled with the need to acquire a large amount of airframes quickly. If PAF is unable to acquire an additional 20-30 F-16 then the J-10C becomes a very real option, but it is NOT ideal. It would put the J-10C right in the middle of the JF-17 and F-16 in terms of physical capability, while electronically superior to both (though the Block 3 would likley be roughly equivalent). It operates in too many overlapping ways with the already large F-16 and JF-17 fleets and in that sense would be redundant. Only possibility of these entering PAF service is the need for a large number of airframes in a short period of time, and I think the PAF would rather have the ROSE mirages soldier on until more JF-17s are available than commit to a 3rd platform of similar capabilities to the other 2 in service.

Su-35 would be the ideal addition, short of that, more F-16s (unfortunately for PAF) are the most likely solution until a 5th Gen platform like the FC-31 enters service and starts to replace older block F-16s. The JF-17 will continue to be upgraded and, I very much agree with @MastanKhan that the model needs to be given the F-2/Gripen NG/Super Hornet treatment by scaling the design up 10-15%. This will allow the PAF to fit a much improved engine (like AL-31/AL-41 in place of the RD-93) and more hardpoints. Give it better RCS reducing features and you have the ideal F-16 replacement with a potential of ~7500-8000kg worth of payload and 9-11 hardpoints with integrated IRST and chin hardpoint for pods. This along with older variant JF-17s could serve with 60-80 (long term) FC-31 to form the fleet going past 2030-2040.

 

[Quwa]

I would strike Typhoon and Rafale out of the list, no second thought. For one thing, a single Rafale or Typhoon would cost Pakistan no less than $250 million U.S. a unit. It's not so much that the fighters are insanely expensive, but they'll want us to stock up on our lifetime supply of spare parts right from the beginning. The Europeans don't have enduring production lines, just look at the closure of the Mirage 2000 line. Unless the French (or British) want to extend us a line of credit for 60% of the upfront of the costs (like Egypt), I don't think the PAF will go the Rafale or Typhoon route.

PAF ought to double down on the JF-17 Block-III. Whatever it takes, bring that fighter to its maximum possible potential, no scaling back. If we need a Finmeccanica AESA radar, go for it. If we need a Chinese EW jamming pod, go for it. If we need to ask Thales to use Thales Visionix's expertise to give us a system eerily similar to the JHMCS, go for it. The PAF needs to set up the JF-17 Block-III (and IV/V/VI) for absolute success, double down with all available national funds.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Smartly played by PAF...lol

In case you guys didn't notice, statement is aimed at US, practically asking "so are you guys ready to give up relations with PAF? If so we are moving on". Basically testing waters. Let's see how it plays out. They have put ball in US court. I think reason for unusually small order of 8 jets was same. To test mood in capital hill. If they wanted 18 jets, why break it in two deals in immediate succession?!

It seems PAF is looking for some other platform from the US...

If 190 odd F-16 are divided into used and new then:
The used aircraft would require an other replacement buy 2030-2040 which would allow the IAF to have PAK-FA in numbers.

I would strike Typhoon and Rafale out of the list, no second thought. For one thing, a single Rafale or Typhoon would cost Pakistan no less than $250 million U.S. a unit. It's not so much that the fighters are insanely expensive, but they'll want us to stock up on our lifetime supply of spare parts right from the beginning. The Europeans don't have enduring production lines, just look at the closure of the Mirage 2000 line. Unless the French (or British) want to extend us a line of credit for 60% of the upfront of the costs (like Egypt), I don't think the PAF will go the Rafale or Typhoon route.

PAF ought to double down on the JF-17 Block-III. Whatever it takes, bring that fighter to its maximum possible potential, no scaling back. If we need a Finmeccanica AESA radar, go for it. If we need a Chinese EW jamming pod, go for it. If we need to ask Thales to use Thales Visionix's expertise to give us a system eerily similar to the JHMCS, go for it. The PAF needs to set up the JF-17 Block-III (and IV/V/VI) for absolute success, double down with all available national funds.

EFT would cost less then the Rafale. The issue is would the existing Mirage Rebuilt facility would be able to manufacture the Rafale or a new line would be required. If a new line is required then definitely the EFT would be logical choice.

 

[HariPrasad]

This means Pakistan may have to add 48 planes every years starting from 2016. What is the new induction rate?

 

[airmarshal]

According to the article, it seems PAF interested in French planes as well. But which one? France only produces Rafale and if we ask for Rafale, the Indians will scream and cry and bitch like no other nation can!

 

[salarsikander]

And we're expected to believe that? Are we morons? So the terrorists are precision bombed by high tech F-16s whilst hiding in a crowd of civilians without causing collateral damage?

These planes are to be used against India. Period!

Hi,

And who is even asking you to believe that ?

 

[Tank131]

I would strike Typhoon and Rafale out of the list, no second thought. For one thing, a single Rafale or Typhoon would cost Pakistan no less than $250 million U.S. a unit. It's not so much that the fighters are insanely expensive, but they'll want us to stock up on our lifetime supply of spare parts right from the beginning. The Europeans don't have enduring production lines, just look at the closure of the Mirage 2000 line. Unless the French (or British) want to extend us a line of credit for 60% of the upfront of the costs (like Egypt), I don't think the PAF will go the Rafale or Typhoon route.

PAF ought to double down on the JF-17 Block-III. Whatever it takes, bring that fighter to its maximum possible potential, no scaling back. If we need a Finmeccanica AESA radar, go for it. If we need a Chinese EW jamming pod, go for it. If we need to ask Thales to use Thales Visionix's expertise to give us a system eerily similar to the JHMCS, go for it. The PAF needs to set up the JF-17 Block-III (and IV/V/VI) for absolute success, double down with all available national funds.

Agreed. But I was listing the possibilities out there for completion sake. Personally, if the Flanker is unavailable and the JH-7B variant is unsuitable, then my suggestion would be get an extra 20-30 ADF/OCU F-16 A/Bs (that are AMRAAM capable) to bring the number to 116-126 and tolerate the lagging of 30-40 airframes until they can be filled by JF-17s (2-3 yrs time to do that number). The JF-17 after block 3 though absolutely needs to be enlarged if no Flanker or JH-7B is forthcoming. All future variants need to be of larger airframe with AL-31 or Al-41 as their powerplant. This will enable PAF to add strike capability to the fleet as a whole while simultaneously giving way to the natural F-16 replacement (FC-31), all while maintaining a strong 4.5+ Generation presence via Block 3/4/5 ect.

This means Pakistan may have to add 48 planes every years starting from 2016. What is the new induction rate?

No, please read my previous post (as convoluted as it may be). The PAF is already replacing the F-7 and Mirage 3/5s but if we look at the 350-400 number target, only realistically 67 airframes are unaccounted for. There are 76 F-16 and 70 JF-17, 60 F-7pg (206) currently that are to serve till/beyond 2025. That leaves 150-200 fighters. There will be an additional 18 additional F-16s likely (8 for sure) and another 80 JF-17 over the next 5 yrs leaving ~50-100 airframes. There are 67 ROSE Mirages that were planned to serve beyond 2010. But the plan was to replace these. Of these 50-100 airframes, there is talk of additional 20-30 F-16 (older model) and ROSE 1 Mirages (33) could potentially serve on as a stop gap if needed, but there needs to be an additional 10-20 airframes to grt those 50-100 airframes by 2020.

 

[salarsikander]

Hello,

For a country like Pakistan that has little or no heavy industrial sector, this will be impossible to achieve.

Even if China assists us. How can we get afford the funding of of 48 jets ?

 

[Bratva]

And we're expected to believe that? Are we morons? So the terrorists are precision bombed by high tech F-16s whilst hiding in a crowd of civilians without causing collateral damage?

These planes are to be used against India. Period!

And USA, French Saudis, British,Germans, UAE, JORDAN,Russia bombing ISIS through Rustom UAV's ?

 

[Tank131]

I would strike Typhoon and Rafale out of the list, no second thought. For one thing, a single Rafale or Typhoon would cost Pakistan no less than $250 million U.S. a unit. It's not so much that the fighters are insanely expensive, but they'll want us to stock up on our lifetime supply of spare parts right from the beginning. The Europeans don't have enduring production lines, just look at the closure of the Mirage 2000 line. Unless the French (or British) want to extend us a line of credit for 60% of the upfront of the costs (like Egypt), I don't think the PAF will go the Rafale or Typhoon route.

PAF ought to double down on the JF-17 Block-III. Whatever it takes, bring that fighter to its maximum possible potential, no scaling back. If we need a Finmeccanica AESA radar, go for it. If we need a Chinese EW jamming pod, go for it. If we need to ask Thales to use Thales Visionix's expertise to give us a system eerily similar to the JHMCS, go for it. The PAF needs to set up the JF-17 Block-III (and IV/V/VI) for absolute success, double down with all available national funds.

Agreed. But I was listing the possibilities out there for completion sake. Personally, if the Flanker is unavailable and the JH-7B variant is unsuitable, then my suggestion would be get an extra 20-30 ADF/OCU F-16 A/Bs (that are AMRAAM capable) to bring the number to 116-126 and tolerate the lagging of 30-40 airframes until they can be filled by JF-17s (2-3 yrs time to do that number). The JF-17 after block 3 though absolutely needs to be enlarged if no Flanker or JH-7B is forthcoming. All future variants need to be of larger airframe with AL-31 or Al-41 as their powerplant. This will enable PAF to add strike capability to the fleet as a whole while simultaneously giving way to the natural F-16 replacement (FC-31), all while maintaining a strong 4.5+ Generation presence via Block 3/4/5 ect.

This means Pakistan may have to add 48 planes every years starting from 2016. What is the new induction rate?

No, please read my previous post (as convoluted as it may be). The PAF is already replacing the F-7 and Mirage 3/5s but if we look at the 350-400 number target, only realistically 67 airframes are unaccounted for. There are 76 F-16 and 70 JF-17, 60 F-7pg (206) currently that are to serve till/beyond 2025. That leaves 150-200 fighters. There will be an additional 18 additional F-16s likely (8 for sure) and another 80 JF-17 over the next 5 yrs leaving ~50-100 airframes. There are 67 ROSE Mirages that were planned to serve beyond 2010. But the plan was to replace these. So there needs to be an additional 10-20/yr airframes to get those unaccounted for 50-100 airframes by 2020.Of these 50-100 airframes, there is talk of additional 20-30 F-16 (older model) and ROSE 1 Mirages (33) could potentially serve on as a stop gap if needed until newer fighters are obtained. Now this is under the 16 airframes /yr pace of production for JF-17 that is currently ongoing. The situation is less strenuous still if that figure is increased to the target 25/yr. 190 sounds like alot but ppl need to remember that much of it is already accounted for.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

And we're expected to believe that? Are we morons? So the terrorists are precision bombed by high tech F-16s whilst hiding in a crowd of civilians without causing collateral damage?

These planes are to be used against India. Period!

India has no need to worry about F-16s unless India has aggressive plans in the future or India has placed investments in terrorists.

Indians are more obsessed over Pakistan than their own country.

 

[VCheng]

Hi,

That number was one of my biggest concerns----the paf Air Chief Marshalls are lollygagging---they come for their 4 years term---make their money and move ahead in life---without any consequences and no one to ask what they have NOT DONE for the paf.

190 by 2020 is a very high number of aircraft----and looks like they have been sitting on funds for awhile now---..

There is really no reason to go for any new F16's until and unless they have another superior platform in good numbers---.

6 minutes ago#1

Sir, this is just a political statement being floated to test the waters in DC, nothing else.

 

[Sulman Badshah]

There are 76 F-16

current F-16 are 78 (US returned 2 embargoed ones as well )