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Jane's Defence Weekly
PAKFA delays may promote Su-35 sales
Reuben F Johnson JDW Correspondent - Kiev
Key Points
Delays to the fifth-generation PAKFA may provide a chance for Sukhoi to sell its Su-35 to the Russian air force
The aircraft faces technological and manufacturing challenges
The development of Russia's next-generation fighter aircraft appears to have hit technical, industrial and political turbulence that may push the aircraft's entry into series production out to 2015 - six years after the planned first flight - but this may help manufacturer Sukhoi.
According to Russian sources the T-50 PAKFA (Perspektivnnyi Aviatsionnyi Kompleks Frontovoi Aviatsyi, or Future Air System for Tactical Air Forces) programme may not currently have the technological base to support it and additional delays may be politically driven to provide local sales opportunities for the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft.
"The previous position of the Russian air force was that they would continue to get by with their present fleets of MiG-29 and Su-27/-30 aircraft until the PAKFA became available," said one senior Russian designer familiar with the programme.
"This meant that the Su-35 would not be procured by the air force and would be an export-only aircraft - at least this has been the plan."
What is now taking place, claims more than one Russian industry official, is that Sukhoi is moving the initial operational capability date for the PAKFA further out. This is not only in order to buy time for industry technology levels to be enhanced sufficiently in order to be able to produce the fifth-generation aircraft, but also so that the air force will be forced to procure the Su-35 in some numbers to fill the gap before the PAKFA could be procured.
Aside from air force capability issues associated with such a gap, there would also be an industrial impact - namely workers and skilled personnel would be idle (and difficult to retain) as well as stopping the production line.
The PAKFA has been scheduled for first flight in 2009, but series production has been projected to commence in 2015 or later. The six-year or more period between these dates "needs to be filled with 'something' being in production in order to keep people occupied", said one Russian official.
The technological challenge has also been highlighted by some in the industry and some of the subcontracting decisions may also impact upon the aircraft.
More than one industry source stated that Russia has inadequate capabilities in composite materials - something which is essential to the production of the PAKFA.
"We need a national programme to build up our composites industry," said Oleg Demchenko general director of aerospace company Irkut, which is involved in the programme.
Aside from the technological challenge, there are disagreements within the air force and segments of industry about the choice of engine for the PAKFA. Saturn, which originally designed the AL-31F engine from which the PAKFA's engines are being developed, and the Moscow Salyut Production Association, which manufactures variants of the AL-31F, have been rivals for many years.
Salyut has established its own design office to wean itself from the need for technical support from Saturn; when the company designed a thrust vector control module for its engine it was developed in co-operation with NPO Klimov in St Petersburg rather than adopting Saturn's design modification.
The two design teams competed on the engine contract for the PAKFA, with the award ultimately going to Saturn, which is to provide an advanced derivative of the 117S modernised variant of the AL-31F.
The PAKFA engine will have a turbine inlet temperature of around 2,000 deg K, which involved both design bureaux redesigning the hot sections of their engines.
Media reports from 2007 claimed that Salyut was working on an engine with a thrust of 15.3 tonnes and that the Saturn engine has a 14.5-tonne thrust rating. The selection of the lower-thrust Saturn design over Salyut was reported to have been connected with the retirement last May of former Russian Air Force Chief General Vladimir Mikhailov, who had supported the Salyut engine but was overruled.
Prospects are equally dismal in the electronics sector. Phazotron designers can build prototypes of the Zhuk-MA active electronically scanned array (AESA) but there is no plant in Russia that can mass produce the transmit-receive modules for the array.
"It will take at least a USD50 million investment to start up a production line," said one industry representative.
There are broader issues with AESA radar too. NIIP, the traditional supplier for Sukhoi aircraft, won the PAKFA contract and is to design and produce an AESA radar, but so far only NIIP's major competitor, Phazotron, has actually produced an active array.
"NIIP can take their time to design an AESA," said a Phazotron representative, "because they are sitting on government-provided funding. We do not have that luxury. We have to get our [Zhuk-MA] AESA flight test finished and then start a plan for series production. NIIP will be several steps behind us all the way."
Jane's Defence Weekly
PAKFA delays may promote Su-35 sales
Reuben F Johnson JDW Correspondent - Kiev
Key Points
Delays to the fifth-generation PAKFA may provide a chance for Sukhoi to sell its Su-35 to the Russian air force
The aircraft faces technological and manufacturing challenges
The development of Russia's next-generation fighter aircraft appears to have hit technical, industrial and political turbulence that may push the aircraft's entry into series production out to 2015 - six years after the planned first flight - but this may help manufacturer Sukhoi.
According to Russian sources the T-50 PAKFA (Perspektivnnyi Aviatsionnyi Kompleks Frontovoi Aviatsyi, or Future Air System for Tactical Air Forces) programme may not currently have the technological base to support it and additional delays may be politically driven to provide local sales opportunities for the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft.
"The previous position of the Russian air force was that they would continue to get by with their present fleets of MiG-29 and Su-27/-30 aircraft until the PAKFA became available," said one senior Russian designer familiar with the programme.
"This meant that the Su-35 would not be procured by the air force and would be an export-only aircraft - at least this has been the plan."
What is now taking place, claims more than one Russian industry official, is that Sukhoi is moving the initial operational capability date for the PAKFA further out. This is not only in order to buy time for industry technology levels to be enhanced sufficiently in order to be able to produce the fifth-generation aircraft, but also so that the air force will be forced to procure the Su-35 in some numbers to fill the gap before the PAKFA could be procured.
Aside from air force capability issues associated with such a gap, there would also be an industrial impact - namely workers and skilled personnel would be idle (and difficult to retain) as well as stopping the production line.
The PAKFA has been scheduled for first flight in 2009, but series production has been projected to commence in 2015 or later. The six-year or more period between these dates "needs to be filled with 'something' being in production in order to keep people occupied", said one Russian official.
The technological challenge has also been highlighted by some in the industry and some of the subcontracting decisions may also impact upon the aircraft.
More than one industry source stated that Russia has inadequate capabilities in composite materials - something which is essential to the production of the PAKFA.
"We need a national programme to build up our composites industry," said Oleg Demchenko general director of aerospace company Irkut, which is involved in the programme.
Aside from the technological challenge, there are disagreements within the air force and segments of industry about the choice of engine for the PAKFA. Saturn, which originally designed the AL-31F engine from which the PAKFA's engines are being developed, and the Moscow Salyut Production Association, which manufactures variants of the AL-31F, have been rivals for many years.
Salyut has established its own design office to wean itself from the need for technical support from Saturn; when the company designed a thrust vector control module for its engine it was developed in co-operation with NPO Klimov in St Petersburg rather than adopting Saturn's design modification.
The two design teams competed on the engine contract for the PAKFA, with the award ultimately going to Saturn, which is to provide an advanced derivative of the 117S modernised variant of the AL-31F.
The PAKFA engine will have a turbine inlet temperature of around 2,000 deg K, which involved both design bureaux redesigning the hot sections of their engines.
Media reports from 2007 claimed that Salyut was working on an engine with a thrust of 15.3 tonnes and that the Saturn engine has a 14.5-tonne thrust rating. The selection of the lower-thrust Saturn design over Salyut was reported to have been connected with the retirement last May of former Russian Air Force Chief General Vladimir Mikhailov, who had supported the Salyut engine but was overruled.
Prospects are equally dismal in the electronics sector. Phazotron designers can build prototypes of the Zhuk-MA active electronically scanned array (AESA) but there is no plant in Russia that can mass produce the transmit-receive modules for the array.
"It will take at least a USD50 million investment to start up a production line," said one industry representative.
There are broader issues with AESA radar too. NIIP, the traditional supplier for Sukhoi aircraft, won the PAKFA contract and is to design and produce an AESA radar, but so far only NIIP's major competitor, Phazotron, has actually produced an active array.
"NIIP can take their time to design an AESA," said a Phazotron representative, "because they are sitting on government-provided funding. We do not have that luxury. We have to get our [Zhuk-MA] AESA flight test finished and then start a plan for series production. NIIP will be several steps behind us all the way."
