Pak-Iran pipeline: KSE-100 index plumbs 441 points fearing sanctions

[KRAIT]

@Abu Zolfiqar Pakistan wasn't socially unstable like this at that time.

The environment always plays a major role in case of economic sanctions imposed on a country.

But I think Pakistan has got huge Chinese support over this issue.

 

[jha]

........................................

 

[Argus Panoptes]

And our navy and airforce was forced to go back to stone age era. All those who says we will survive another sanction era, than you are living in imaginary world this time.

This time Army,Airforce and Nave will be badly screwed, we won't be able to sustain war on terror ue to economic and military sanctions and rest is left to imagine when you all come of your high horses of been there done that

Things will not be as bad as that. Remember, the nuclear deterrent is immune to sanctions. Therefore, temporary shortage of conventional weapons will not place security of the state in jeopardy from external threats. The war against terrorists internally will need good policing and government policies, and they can be achieved with sanctions or without sanctions.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

@Abu Zolfiqar Pakistan wasn't socially unstable like this at that time.

The environment always plays a major role in case of economic sanctions imposed on a country.

But I think Pakistan has got huge Chinese support over this issue.

which time? the 1990s? Karachi & sectarian violence were spiralling completely out of control. In fact our relations with Iran were awful during that period (understandably) because Iranian diplomats were assaulted or even killed in proxy target killings --and Iranians also were playing some negative political roles in Pakistan

our media is huge now so every single CNG explosion or bomb blast is reported; in those days the media was limited to a few channels (mostly State). Things were bad in the early 1990s and calmed down in the later half of the period after proper action being taken

yes environment plays a huge role; this pipeline project coupled by Gwadar Port Operations will bring billions of dollars worth of upliftment to Pakistani citizens in Balochistan and would generate scores of jobs. Not to mention the benefits on a macro level.


the energy shortage in Pakistan has been absolutely devastating to our industry and economic competitiveness.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

And our navy and airforce was forced to go back to stone age era. All those who says we will survive another sanction era, than you are living in imaginary world this time.

This time Army,Airforce and Nave will be badly screwed, we won't be able to sustain war on terror ue to economic and military sanctions and rest is left to imagine when you all come of your high horses of been there done that

how could it possibly be worse now than it was during the 'dark decade' (or whatever it was called)?

you dont need a western bank to remit money to Pakistan when there are Islamic banks

non-western systems will be making up the bulk of our air force fleet, naval as well (both services are undergoing a very slow and budget-tight but steady modernization drive)

Nobody knows who will succeed Gen. Kayani (we all know how we are plastered to our screens when theres speculation over which General will assume the 'throne') but if the Kayani model remains in place then there wont be a need for any major (and costly) presence along the western sector b/c if things go the way they should, the police/FC/local rifles will 100% be in charge of border security there (i hope for more emphasis on cooperation between police and security forces but thats a whole other debate)

its not high horses yaar; in fact check my posts from 1-2-3 years ago on this same subject.......sanctions can have us a bit squeezed by the balls but then again our balls already squeezed vis a vis energy shortages and it was as if our faces were slapped when the Americans decided to win-over some bharaty sympathy by granting them a civilian nuclear deal --despite also being a nonsignatory to the non proliferation treatyy

In fact I'm sure there are CEOs and CFOs of financial institutions in Pakistan who are shytting themselves in their undies and grinding their teeth at night over this prospect. But like i said, you have to view things in terms of whether they benefit the nation or not. If the pipeline will help alleviate the energy crisis in Pakistan at a rate that is fair, then it should be supported and other external factors should be set aside.









p.s. China funds American debt when they buy their t-bills...China is the one with increasing leverage; the leverage and the value of this debt are inversely related

 

[Argus Panoptes]

.................
In fact I'm sure there are CEOs and CFOs of financial institutions in Pakistan who are shytting themselves in their undies and grinding their teeth at night over this prospect. But like i said, you have to view things in terms of whether they benefit the nation or not. If the pipeline will help alleviate the energy crisis in Pakistan at a rate that is fair, then it should be supported and other external factors should be set aside. ......................

How can a rate four times the going price possibly be fair? Further, the deal is structured that this unfair rate gouging can only increase with rising oil prices while gas prices fall.

 

[darkinsky]

the gas we are importing from iran is three times or maybe more than the cost we are producing locally, this pathetic Pee pee pee government didnt invest on exploiting our gas fields and in the end they looted so mch, didnt even have enough money to even build the pipeline

pakistan has a big potential but policies like these, we will be beggars forever

 

[niaz]

It is only the ground breaking ceremony. Sanctions will only come in force If & When, Iranian gas starts flowing. This is good few years away.

Incidentally, neither Pakistan nor Iran has the money at this point in time. Even Gazprom has pulled out. There is many a slip between cup & the lip.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

It is only the ground breaking ceremony. Sanctions will only come in force If & When, Iranian gas starts flowing. This is good few years away.

Incidentally, neither Pakistan nor Iran has the money at this point in time. Even Gazprom has pulled out. There is many a slip between cup & the lip.

As the US State Department has clearly said:

"We have serious concerns, if this project actually goes forward, that the Iran Sanctions Act would be triggered,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said.

“We’ve been straight up with the Pakistanis about these concerns.”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched the construction of a much-delayed section of the gas pipeline with his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari at a ceremony on the border of the two neighbours.

But Nuland added: “We’ve heard this pipeline announced about 10 or 15 times before in the past. So we have to see what actually happens.”

Sanctions, if Pakistan, Iran plow ahead with gas deal: Nuland - geo.tv

What actually happens, nobody knows, as of now, I think.

 

[darkinsky]

if the sane government comes into power in the up coming elections it will scrap this gas deal and rather invest urgently on our gas reservoirs instead of looting

if we cant tolerate almost an year of loadshedding and gas scarcity we can suffer for few more months until our plants our setup to extract our own natural gas from our own reservoirs

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

the gas we are importing from iran is three times or maybe more than the cost we are producing locally, this pathetic Pee pee pee government didnt invest on exploiting our gas fields and in the end they looted so mch, didnt even have enough money to even build the pipeline

pakistan has a big potential but policies like these, we will be beggars forever

we have for example huge reserves of shale gas; but you need the technology, know-how and investment in order to be able to extract it.....at present, the resources are there but we lack the means to exploit them economically

plus of course vested interests, politics and corruption at play behind the scenes ---something we cant seem to shake off!!

It is only the ground breaking ceremony. Sanctions will only come in force If & When, Iranian gas starts flowing. This is good few years away.

Incidentally, neither Pakistan nor Iran has the money at this point in time. Even Gazprom has pulled out. There is many a slip between cup & the lip.

not sure of the reason why Gazprom pulled out (whether it was political or a business decision) but the reality is also that Iran is having its own domestic production shortages as well

 

[Mirage2000]

if the sane government comes into power in the up coming elections it will scrap this gas deal and rather invest urgently on our gas reservoirs instead of looting

if we cant tolerate almost an year of loadshedding and gas scarcity we can suffer for few more months until our plants our setup to extract our own natural gas from our own reservoirs

Well in plain words we cant just extract and utilize our ingenious reserves till estimated time this gas starts flowing in our pipelines,
in short term we don't have any suitable option other than IP but in longer run we'll have to get these reserves (which are estimated to be double than our existing gas reserves which are near exhaustion) but this too is not easy because of security threat posed by terrorists (courtesy our middle eastern muslim brothers our eastern neighbour and our super power ally) and financial situation.

Moreover the demand of gas will increase so we should use gas from both sources instead of scraping this deal.

But the sanctions will hurt economically and may further cripple the growth.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

@Musalman

given your insider scoop and professional background, your input in this topic would be extremely valuable

 

[Vassnti]

It is only the ground breaking ceremony. Sanctions will only come in force If & When, Iranian gas starts flowing. This is good few years away.

Incidentally, neither Pakistan nor Iran has the money at this point in time. Even Gazprom has pulled out. There is many a slip between cup & the lip.

Hits it on he head, two years for 400 miles of pipe line is with all respect by the history of public projects optomistic. Considering the route and goverment efficiency say 4 years to completion. I doubt very much if in 4 years there will be sanctions.

Four years time really there are three possibilities, Iran has tested a nuclear device and sanctions have proven a failure.
Iran has shelved 20% + enrichment and sanctions are ended or war has broken out and there isnt an Iranian end to connect to.

 

[somebozo]

I agree with you to some extent...But what i feel is that Pakistan is slowly trying to play a role in multipolar world and trying to find a rightful place in diplomatic chess game in South and Central Asia...I am not sure how much sincere is Pakistan GOV,but if Pak gov goes ahead with this deal, Pakistan will release itself from the sackle and image of an anti India country in South Asia to a country who can take its own descison for its own intrest rather than for something else...Its a good move if Pakistan really go for it....Time will only say in which way Pakistan goes in next 10 year...

You understand that if completed, this pipeline will have severe strategic implications for India and the fall out will affect India-Iran and India-US relations. Not to mentioned the tilt of balance between GCC influence and Iran-GCC rivalry! The political importance of this pipeline far exceed the hydrocarbon wealth it will bring.

if the sane government comes into power in the up coming elections it will scrap this gas deal and rather invest urgently on our gas reservoirs instead of looting

if we cant tolerate almost an year of loadshedding and gas scarcity we can suffer for few more months until our plants our setup to extract our own natural gas from our own reservoirs

The extraction from shale and hard mountainous regions is quite expensive while Iranian gas is one of the cheapest in the world.