Excellent analysis sir! But I would like to add that Viper and Gripen are the front runners for India's medium weight project. So we have to wait and watch. That said, Thunder was based on a study of Gripen and as you already mentioned, our pilots perform DACT of Viper vs. Thunder probably every day.
The Migs would be an excellent platform for the SU-30 threat. Also, there has been some news that PAF is actively pursuing Russian/Chinese jets so I am pretty confident in this aspect as well.
My main concern is Rafale, and its weapons and EW suit. The M2K-9s from U.A.E. may be a good substitute for the aerodynamics, but we absolutely need to get our hands on the weapons and EW. Specifically, MICA, METEOR, and SPECTRA. We need to know these systems inside out so we can devise strategies against them.