PAF ‘OPS SWIFT RETORT’ and the effectiveness of air power

[loanranger]

Sure LOAN ranger or is it LONE ranger ?

Haha good one! But its intentional.....

 

[syed_yusuf]

Gentlemen, a view from the Indian side.

I have been following this aerial engagement with interest, especially since the IAF lost a MiG-21 aircraft. There is a lot of info being shared and varied debates on this subject in India. There is no doubt that Pakistan gained huge PR value from this event. However, it is still debatable if all aims were operationally achieved or not. For my opinion, I am quoting open source info, mostly from twitter where people in India are posting information -

PAF's Op Swift Retort - Intention to demo India a capability match !

The Goods -
-Managed to have a numerical superiority in Kashmir sector
-Surprised IAF
- Outranged IAF with USAF style launch
-Strike launched SOW
-Kept IAF CAP at bay
-Shot down Mig21

The Bad -
-Inaccuracy of some percentage of weapon (some people are reporting upto 1.6 km away) - Now if it the strike was to prove a capability, why did all bombs NOT fall with same accuracy? Why did some fall perilously close (70m at Narian) and some way off? This way the capability being claimed is doubtful and we see this as more of a afterthought. No films have been released by PAF after DGISPR said it will be done.
-On twitter, one handle says that kill probability of of 5 AMRAAMs was low, with only the sixth weapon shooting down the M21.
-Bad fire ranges by F-16s - most fired out of effective launch envelope. Without firing also this could be achieved on radar fire control mode. So if the intent was to scare the IAF CAP, then why waste missiles?
-Allowed M21 to cross the LOC
-Allowed M21 to fire
-M21 has shot down one PAF aircraft - there are some images doing round on twitter showing a cloud like thing falling to ground. While some enthusiasts have said its the F-16, I am not sure. But it is an aircraft given the size of the cloud. So if IAF lost 1 aircraft over Azad Kashmir, what is this? A PAF aircraft has been indeed lost!

PAF however achieved its larger aim - to stop India's initiative and demo a capability. The M21 loss stoped any IAF response to Op Swift Retort dead in its track. Basically the government chickened out, having achieved PR mileage from Balakot a day earlier. IAF has learnt lessons from this engagement, basically getting LR AAMs and more AWACS.

These are my thoughts. I have recently joined, so please don't massacre me with out of turn remarks. Would love a healthy debate on my points.

since you recently join, good analysis but missing facts

please get your fact straight. there are 2 IAF confirmed loses one was su-30 mki. the fire ball was that of Su-30 MKI.


wasting missiles? really. there is something called tactics. one more time PAF proved to be superior in training and tactics even-though IAF had numerical and quality edge. in 90 hours IAF lost all its superiority that was build over last 20 years. there are also reports of IAf loosing another 6 fighters in the 90 hours due to superior tactics. review OSINT you will count all 8 aircraft reported lost by IAF over last 8-9 weeks. In my opinion monkey got a shut up call in 90 hours for next few decades minimum. it was not just one mig 21 lost that stopped the mighty IAF, it was 8 fighters -> 2 Su-30MKI, 2 Mirage 2000, 4 mig-21 bisons.

 

[syed_yusuf]

The PAF is not a fool sir. They probably cud have shot down 4-5 IAF aircraft with numerical superiority, but with just 76 F-16s, can the PAF even afford an all out war?

Think over this....!

typical indian response, u r counting out JFT. the reason IAF held back is because of massive response from PAF in 90 hours where IAF lost 8 planes. IAF had numerous exercise involving F-16 they SHOULD know how to tackle it. but they did not, and IAF was clueless about JFT. they got offguard by the BVR tactics deployed by PAF involving JFT and F-16. do you think IAf will dare open a front when they got trumped in the first session .. seriously

and what numerical superiority you are talking about. where are IAF's 250+ Su-30 resting, what about 66 mig-29 and 50+ mirage 2000.

 

[Flight of falcon]

Gentlemen, a view from the Indian side.

I have been following this aerial engagement with interest, especially since the IAF lost a MiG-21 aircraft. There is a lot of info being shared and varied debates on this subject in India. There is no doubt that Pakistan gained huge PR value from this event. However, it is still debatable if all aims were operationally achieved or not. For my opinion, I am quoting open source info, mostly from twitter where people in India are posting information -

PAF's Op Swift Retort - Intention to demo India a capability match !

The Goods -
-Managed to have a numerical superiority in Kashmir sector
-Surprised IAF
- Outranged IAF with USAF style launch
-Strike launched SOW
-Kept IAF CAP at bay
-Shot down Mig21

The Bad -
-Inaccuracy of some percentage of weapon (some people are reporting upto 1.6 km away) - Now if it the strike was to prove a capability, why did all bombs NOT fall with same accuracy? Why did some fall perilously close (70m at Narian) and some way off? This way the capability being claimed is doubtful and we see this as more of a afterthought. No films have been released by PAF after DGISPR said it will be done.
-On twitter, one handle says that kill probability of of 5 AMRAAMs was low, with only the sixth weapon shooting down the M21.
-Bad fire ranges by F-16s - most fired out of effective launch envelope. Without firing also this could be achieved on radar fire control mode. So if the intent was to scare the IAF CAP, then why waste missiles?
-Allowed M21 to cross the LOC
-Allowed M21 to fire
-M21 has shot down one PAF aircraft - there are some images doing round on twitter showing a cloud like thing falling to ground. While some enthusiasts have said its the F-16, I am not sure. But it is an aircraft given the size of the cloud. So if IAF lost 1 aircraft over Azad Kashmir, what is this? A PAF aircraft has been indeed lost!

PAF however achieved its larger aim - to stop India's initiative and demo a capability. The M21 loss stoped any IAF response to Op Swift Retort dead in its track. Basically the government chickened out, having achieved PR mileage from Balakot a day earlier. IAF has learnt lessons from this engagement, basically getting LR AAMs and more AWACS.

These are my thoughts. I have recently joined, so please don't massacre me with out of turn remarks. Would love a healthy debate on my points.

Show me any images at all of
Plane going down except mig21..... are you guys really that stupid or your supa pawa dream lives in Bollywood dance numbers only.
You actually came here to pretend and provide objective analysis but yet you are repeating same old shot that’s debunked so many times it’s starting to sound as if you guys are missing brains.

Where are the pictures of Pakistani attacks? If we can take the entire press Corp to balakot why can’t you guys give press access to our six targets we got..... missed by 1.6 km ...???? Really how where.....
Show me a single piece of F 16 wreckage .... you guys have over 10 spy satellite but can not detect shit????

What is wrong with you guys!

 

[Falcon26]

An objective analysis is exactly what I am aiming for. Kindly go through this tweet link -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1123921210046320640

While its easy for me to support the IAF being an Indian, one cannot refute a ton of evidence around the crash of a second jet in P-O-K. And its not an IAF jet. So what should I infer?

“Ton of evidence” is basically a third rate reading of maps. Your country claims to have radio intercepts and radar information, why isn’t it releasing them? What’s stopping your country from releasing satellite pictures to establish the claims it’s leaking to gullible media and citizens like you? Also, how could Abhi shoot down anything when all his weapons are accounted for? Finally, you are stuck to a myth that was dismissed by even the Americans. A head count was done and all PAF F-16s are accounted for. Stop living in a parallel universe.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/04/did-india-shoot-down-a-pakistani-jet-u-s-count-says-no

Log off, you are drunk!

 

[Army research]

Show me any images at all of
Plane going down except mig21..... are you guys really that stupid or your supa pawa dream lives in Bollywood dance numbers only.
You actually came here to pretend and provide objective analysis but yet you are repeating same old shot that’s debunked so many times it’s starting to sound as if you guys are missing brains.

Where are the pictures of Pakistani attacks? If we can take the entire press Corp to balakot why can’t you guys give press access to our six targets we got..... missed by 1.6 km ...???? Really how where.....
Show me a single piece of F 16 wreckage .... you guys have over 10 spy satellite but can not detect shit????

What is wrong with you guys!

An objective analysis is exactly what I am aiming for. Kindly go through this tweet link -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1123921210046320640

While its easy for me to support the IAF being an Indian, one cannot refute a ton of evidence around the crash of a second jet in P-O-K. And its not an IAF jet. So what should I infer?

O lalay, ziada afghanian naal dosti mana kay tussi unhan di chars vi tou nahi chiknay lag gya?

 

[Flight of falcon]

An objective analysis is exactly what I am aiming for. Kindly go through this tweet link -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1123921210046320640

While its easy for me to support the IAF being an Indian, one cannot refute a ton of evidence around the crash of a second jet in P-O-K. And its not an IAF jet. So what should I infer?

Bro these pictures are as good as three spice missiles going through the tin roof and slightly moving the roof...
I take you have nothing to do and just wasting time

 

[Arsalan 345]

I don't think that there was any su-30.probably India lost su-30 in their own land and hide it.they can easily make another su-30 and nobody asked them to count their su-30.pakistan lost a plane also.2nd plane went down in our area and we provided no proof to counter indian claims.we should better accept reality.paf targeted su-30 in indian airspace,probably bombed the plane.i am not sure about su-30 kill.we did well during entire operation but failed to detect mig-21 in the last stage of fight.mig hit something.abhinandan was clearly celebrating with his colleagues in Indian air Force base.we made a mistake by releasing the pilot.imran Khan has failed miserably.

 

[Falcon26]

Not particularly saying its a F-16. It can be any other PAF type also



Oh jo China de Chor bajar da R73 tussi dekhaya, auda ki pahji? Hun te bas karo, sach di rah phado

Your military conclusively said it’s an F-16 and used an F-16 “disappearing” from the radar screen as an evidence that it was shot down. Seriously, not even schoolboys make the sorts of ridiculous ignorant statements the IAF did. But then what do you expect from an air force that shoots down its own planes during dogfights. The IAF was systematically jammed and blinded by PAF on February 27th and to this day, it seems the IAF has no idea what hit them or even what happened. If it did, it wouldn’t complain about being outgunned and outranged and bragging about its SU-30 successfully running away from PAF. No professional air force would brag about being humiliated like this.

 

[airmarshal]

You are trivializing the Rafale's true capabilities. The comparison you have given above is amateurish. Read here to understand what's needed to bring Thunder at par in the WVR regime

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/first-glimpse-into-jf-17-block-3.613436/page-16#post-11495544

In the BVR arena, it is not enough to tick off boxes on AESA, SPJ, and missiles. The quality matters as well. The effective range, frequency bandwidth, number of T/R modules, and more importantly the software used for detection, its ability to track and attack multiple bogies, the rate of false positives and false negatives, they all matter. In the SPJ area, SPECTRA and it's active cancellation is a huge unknown. Even if Thunder has a SPJ pod, the question arises: can it generate enough noise to confuse the Rafale's sensors? Does it support wideband jamming? What is the width of its beams? Then there is the question of integration. Once the RWR detects a threat, how well can it interact with the SPJ to jam the threat without being detected? What are the ELINT capabilities available to decipher signals on the go? What kind of threat library is available?

When people say Rafale is at par with F-22/F-35 these are the areas they are referring to. Rafale enjoys French expertise in electronics gained over decades. Consider this: the French upgrades for Mirage are making a 60 year old relevant in today's age. Imagine what the latest French electronics are capable of.

People tend to misunderstand the extant of French expertise. Here is an eye opener: the French had the equivalent of the internet during the 70s much earlier than the Americans. The reason why they were not recognized as world leaders is because they chose to keep their system closed off.

The Rafale is the epitome of European engineering expertise in EW and a very potent adversary. Do not trivialize the problem at hand.

You cant have just BVR ticked off and think we are good. Just as Indian sources themselves admitting their Russian R-77 BVR was no match F-16 fired AIM-120 BVR missile.

Rafale is a very potent aircraft. So we need to prepare accordingly. I dont think PAF planners are complacent as Feb 27 engagement has revealed.

 

[SIPRA]

Log off, you are drunk!

On what?
May be smoking some good stuff, imported from brotherly Afghanistan.

 

[Falcon26]

You cant have just BVR ticked off and think we are good. Just as Indian sources themselves admitting their Russian R-77 BVR was no match F-16 fired AIM-120 BVR missile.

Rafale is a very potent aircraft. So we need to prepare accordingly. I dont think PAF planners are complacent as Feb 27 engagement has revealed.

You want PAF to prove a negative?

Well then, let’s also ask the USAF to present proof that UFOs exist. Only fair!

 

[Falcon26]

Oh, but they do. Ask the Hornet jocks .....

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...os-encounters-new-radar-tech-key-in-detection

LOL! Great find, buddy!

By the way, the same website also did an exceptional job debunking IAF claim of shooting down PAF F-16.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...21-bison-versus-pakistani-f-16-viper-bullshit

 

[GriffinsRule]

All Indian claims are lies unless and until they can show the damage, whatever it was, caused by Pakistan's retaliatory strike. Until then, just ignore their feeble attempts to repeat the same lies in an effort to make them stick.

 

[Falcon26]

It did indeed. But in this high voltage PR shadow boxing between India and Pakistan, Tylor would like to go by the evidence - which is debris or maybe the HUD film, both of which is not there. The Pak Army has done well to cover most traces of the loss of second aircraft.

But kudos to Nouman and Hassan Siddiqui from PAF's 9 Sqn for the M21 kill. A kill is a kill

I am always fascinated by the ability of Indians to concoct baseless assumptions. Remember only one side is being globally ridiculed and it’s not Pakistan!